The Double Bonus

Injured PG Truck Bryant gets a lecture from head coach Bob Huggins back in December. (AP)

There’s no Cinderella storyline with these guys. No homecoming angle. America’s team they certainly are not.

And that’s the way West Virginia likes it.

With a style that doesn’t exactly resonate with the masses and a coach whose nickname – “Huggy Bear” – is as ironic as it gets, the Mountaineers are crashing the Final Four and fitting the role of villain probably better than any of the other three semifinalists.

But whatever label you want to toss on West Virginia doesn’t matter because the Mountaineers are only interested in flying back to Morgantown with the one that matters: Champion.

Do the Mountaineers have what it takes to win their first national title? Here’s a closer look at West Virginia.

Coach: Bob Huggins (3rd year)
Record: 31-6, 13-5 Big East
Final Fours: 2 (1959, 2010)
Mr. Clutch: This season, leading scorer Da’Sean Butler has nailed six game-winning shots in the final seconds.

How They Got Here

West Virgina finished in the three-way tie for second in the Big East regular season standings and then went on to capture the conference tournament championship, earning an automatic berth into the NCAA tournament. The Mountaineers were the No. 2 seed in the East Regional.

First Round: West Virginia missed its first 11 shots from the field and made everyone take notice of their early deficit to No. 15 Morgan State. But it didn’t last very long. The Mountaineers eventually started to make some baskets and ended up blitzing the Bears, 77-50.

Second Round: A big first half from Butler paced West Virginia to a 68-59 victory over No. 10 Missouri. Butler scored 19 of the Mountaineers’ 30 points in the first 20 minutes and finished with a game-high 28. The Tigers pressure defense didn’t deter West Virginia from leading the entire game or from holding Missouri to a measly 32.8 percent from the field.

Sweet 16: No. 11 Washington made things very interesting in the first half, taking a two point lead into the locker room, but the second half was a very different story. Too many Washington turnovers and too much West Virginia led to an easy 69-56 victory for the Mountaineers. Washington’s fate was sealed when they started the second half missing 11 of its first 14 attempts from the field. West Virginia advanced to its second regional final in five years.

Elite Eight: West Virginia gave us a first half we may never see again, hitting all eight of their 3-point attempts while failing to make a single shot inside the line. But the hot shooting gave the Mountaineers the lead at half against No. 1 Kentucky in the East Regional final and thanks to its stubborn insistence at launching 3s, coupled with West Virginia’s defense in the second half, the mighty Wildcats went down in the Carrier Dome, 73-66. Joe Mazzula had the game of his life, in his first start of the season, scoring a career-high 17 points in leading the Mountaineers back to the Final Four.

Why They Can Win It All

West Virginia might be the most talented team in the Final Four. From the top of its roster on down, you’d be hard pressed to top what West Virginia is bringing to Indianapolis. They’re tall, athletic and deep. While they may not have prolific scorers like Duke they have plenty of guys who give them more than enough offensive production. The Mountaineers feature three who average double figures – Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks – and have a solid bench they can rely on. Butler is the go-to guy and presents a very difficult matchup at 6-foot-7 with the ability to hit the outside shot. The Mountaineers aren’t the greatest 3-point shooting team but we know they’re more than capable of knocking down the outside shot as evidenced by what we saw against Kentucky. Where the Mountaineers really excel is on the defensive end. West Virginia can present a number of different looks and the zone it featured against Kentucky was very effective. For its matchup against Duke Saturday evening in the second national semifinal, Huggins will probably mix up his defenses a little bit considering Duke does not feature the caliber of slashers Kentucky did. West Virginia finished among the nation’s top 10 in rebounding margin but Ken Pomeroy over at Basketball Prospectus doesn’t think you should get fooled into thinking the Mountaineers are that great at crashing the boards – at least the defensive boards. Pomeroy argues that, just like Duke, West Virginia is a superior offensive rebounding team – which can sometimes fly under the radar – meaning they get a lot of second-chance opportunities. And when you capitalize as effectively on those extra opportunities as the Mountaineers do then it makes them very difficult to beat. And in crunch time, you can generally count on West Virginia to close things out. The Mountaineers are hitting a respectable 70.3 percent from the free throw line and showed their closing abilities last week when they sealed the deal against Kentucky from the line.

Why The Won’t

West Virginia is not a great shooting team, especially from beyond the arc, and sometimes they can rely too much on the outside shot. With their relatively slow pace of play it’s not easy for the Mountaineers to overcome a sustained cold spell from the field against good teams so if they’re not converting those second chance opportunities then they’re dead. West Virginia is prone to making mistakes – they turned it over 23 times against Washington in the Sweet 16. And while that was an aberration so far in the tournament, the Mountaineers are liable to give it up at almost any moment. With a lack of true ball handlers thanks to PG Truck Bryant’s fractured foot – which will likely keep him out of action again this weekend – things can get sloppy in the backcourt when Mazzula isn’t the one handling it. Butler and Ebanks can serve as point guard for brief stretches, but in the long run the two forwards are liabilities dribbling around the perimeter. And speaking of Mazzula, you can’t expect a similar performance out of him following the Kentucky game. The oft-injured backup point guard was pressed into duty and was phenomenal. But his limited offensive game – West Virginia does not want him firing from outside – hampers the Mountaineers. West Virginia did an excellent job defending Kentucky but Duke is a better 3-point shooting team than the Wildcats. Should the Mountaineers play zone against the Blue Devils, West Virginia better hope Duke isn’t feeling it from beyond and grabbing the misses because as good of an offensive rebounding team as West Virginia is, Duke’s right there with them.

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo and PG Korie Lucious. (AP)

Michigan State shouldn’t be in the Final Four.

Not with the kind of topsy-turvy regular season it had. Not with the draw it received when the brackets came out. Not with all the injuries it has been plagued with.

The math just doesn’t seem to add up. Such a flawed team isn’t supposed to shine so brightly so late in the season. But Tom Izzo has defied convention before. And the man who simply loves March has his team back in territory few know as well as he.

Do the Spartans have what it takes to win a third national title, a second for Izzo? Here’s a closer look at Michigan State.

Coach: Tom Izzo (15th season)
Record: 28-8, 14-4 Big Ten
Final Fours: 8 (1957, 1979, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2010), 2 championships (1979, 2000)
Outstanding Company: This is Michigan State’s sixth Final Four appearance in the last 12 years. Only Duke and North Carolina have been to as many Final Fours in the same time frame.

How They Got There

Michigan State received an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament as the No. 5 seed in the Midwest Regional after finishing in a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten during the regular season. The Spartans lost in the first round of the conference tournament.

First Round: The heavily favored Spartans got a lot more than they bargained for against No. 12 New Mexico State. With a career-high 25 points from Kalin Lucas, the Spartans prevailed, 70-67, in a game that featured a rather controversial ending. New Mexico State’s Troy Gillenwater was called for a lane violation on a missed Raymar Morgan free throw with 18 seconds to go. With another shot at it, Morgan converted for the game’s final point, allowing the Spartans to survive and advance.

Second Round: One of the most memorable games of the tournament, Korie Lucious’ 3-pointer at the buzzer was the difference as Michigan State sent home No. 4 Maryland in devastating fashion, 85-83. The Terps trailed for basically the entire game, falling behind by as much as 16 points, before a frantic comeback actually gave them a lead with 6 seconds to go. Greivis Vasquez’s runner looked to be the game-winner before Lucious was able to rise and fire from the top of the arc and bury the jumper as time expired. It capped off a wild celebration that was later sobered by the news surrounding Lucas. The Spartans best player and starting point guard went down in the middle of the game with an ankle injury that was later revealed to be a torn Achilles’ tendon, ending his season.

Sweet 16: Fresh off its upset of No. 1 Kansas, Northern Iowa had become the darlings of the NCAA tournament. But the No. 9 Panthers couldn’t continue their magical run as Michigan State was able to grind out another win, 59-52. The Spartans did it with their defense and the backcourt play of Lucious and Durrell Summers as the combo combined for 29 points.

Elite Eight: No. 6 Tennessee was looking for its first Final Four berth but the Spartans outlasted the Vols thanks to some clutch free throw shooting in the game’s final seconds by Morgan. Michigan State led by as many as eight in the second half, but Tennessee clawed its way back to tie things in the game’s final minute. Morgan was fouled with less than 2 seconds to go and went to the line with a chance to put Michigan State back in the Final Four. He hit the first, purposely missed the second, and Tennessee’s mid-court prayer went unanswered. Wild celebration ensued as Izzo improved to 6-1 all-time in regional finals.

Why They Can Win It All

If you’ve watched Michigan State play at all since Izzo took over from his predecessor, Jud Heathcote, you know the Spartans are a defensive minded team. They win by grinding out games, by playing tough man-to-man defense, by out-rebounding opponents, and usually getting just enough offense to eek out a win. While it’s been nothing but close game after close game for Michigan State, surprisingly the Spartans are hitting 41 percent of their 3-pointers, as John Gasaway over at Basketball Prospectus has pointed out, meaning they’re not just getting it done with their defense this tournament. Not that they’ve changed who they are over the last four games but the stats are showing that the Spartans aren’t as “bad” of an offensive team as some might think. Or at least they’re playing above their offensive norm. The Big Ten stigma is a tough one to shake and  Summers and Morgan are doing their part having stepped up their games in the tournament, helping fill the void of Lucas’ 14.8 ppg. Summers has been the Spartans best offensive player during this run, scoring 20 ppg, almost double his regular season average. And he’s been on fire from beyond the arc, hitting 18 of his 30 3-point attempts; a ridiculous number for someone who only made 26 all season long. Morgan, meanwhile, has scored in double figures three of the four games. And if the inspired offensive play wasn’t enough to make you believe in Michigan State then  maybe Izzo is enough. The man is one of the premier coaches who makes these runs through March with talent that isn’t exactly rushing off to the NBA. No Spartan will be selected with a lottery pick this June, just like the previous three years, or even sniff it, for that matter. Yet look at how far they’ve come. When you count out Michigan State that’s when it seems like it’s at its best.

Why They Won’t

The fact Michigan State has gotten to a second straight Final Four is borderline ridiculous. With all the injuries, the suspensions, the up-and-down play during the regular season, for Izzo to rip off four straight wins in the NCAA tournament is a pretty remarkable feat. In the tournament, they’ve benefited from having avoided the big guns of the Midwest Regional as No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Georgetown were all laid to rest before potentially facing the Spartans. And against the “lesser” competition, Michigan State won those four games by a combined 13 points. Not exactly the kind of scoring margin a high level Final Four team usually features, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out Tuesday. The Journal went so far as to say the Spartans are the worst team to make the Final Four since 1985. I definitely wouldn’t say that about Michigan State, but with a lineup that’s pretty banged up and already missing its best player, the deck is definitely stacked against the Spartans. Sure Michigan State has been able to get by without Lucas for two games but Lucious still does not instill a ton of confidence in Spartans fans. He can be erratic and turnover prone, two qualities that should never describe a point guard. Teams have won titles without an All-American point guard at the helm. But what team has won it without their floor leader who just happened to also be their best player? I can’t think of one. And how much longer can the hot shooting continue, especially for Summers? When Michigan State meets Butler Saturday in the first national semifinal, baskets will not come easily as the Spartans will be facing one of the best half-court defenses in the nation, one that does an excellent job of creating turnovers. I don’t know about you, but of the four national semifinalists I have the hardest time seeing Michigan State cutting down the nets.

Butler's Gordon Hayward. (AP)

The comparisons to “Hoosiers” are inevitable but Butler isn’t your quintessential underdog. The team that plays its home games in the same gym where the immortal basketball movie’s final scenes were filmed has made what might best be described as a rather unexpected run to the Final Four.

Just don’t get fooled into thinking Butler doesn’t belong there.

The mid-major that at this point should cease to be called a mid-major is still in the running for a national championship when just about everybody expected them to be back hitting the books this week, and not still crashing the boards. Do the Bulldogs have what it takes to cut down the Lucas Oil Stadium nets? Here’s a closer look at the first team to punch its Final Four ticket: Butler.

Coach: Brad Stevens (3rd year)
Record: 32-4, 18-0 Horizon
Final Fours: 1 (2010)
Streaking: Butler owns the nation’s longest winning streak that currently stands at 24.

How They Got There

Butler, the Horizon League regular season and conference tournament champions, entered the NCAA tournament as the No. 5 seed in the West Regional.

First Round: Behind a second half surge, and a career-high 25 points from Shelvin Mack, the Bulldogs took out No. 12 UTEP, 77-59. Butler trailed by five at halftime, but Mack’s hot shooting – he knocked down six 3-pointers in the second half – was a backbreaker for the Miners as Butler’s disciplined offense frustrated and eventually wore down the UTEP defense.

Second Round: No. 13 Murray State, fresh off its upset of No. 4 Vanderbilt, gave Butler all it could handle, but the Bulldogs managed to survive with a 54-52 victory thanks to Gordon Hayward’s defense as the clock ran out. Hayward deflected Isaiah Canaan’s desperate pass attempt as the Racers were looking for a second straight buzzer-beating upset.

Sweet 16: Butler pulled off the surprising 63-59 upset of No. 1 Syracuse, persevering when just about everyone expected them to fold. The Bulldogs got off to a great start but watched Syracuse reclaim the lead mid-way through the second half. And for a few fleeting moments, it looked like the Orange were ready to run away with the game. But Butler stood its ground, allowing just one Syracuse field goal over the game’s final 5:23 to advance. They did it with defense.

Elite Eight: Playing in the school’s first ever regional final, the Bulldogs faced a drained Kansas State team and once again got out to a great start, carrying a double digit lead well into the second half. And just like the Sweet 16, Butler watched Kansas State take the lead late only to take it right back and walk away with a 63-56 victory to advance to the Final Four which just happens to be – if you haven’t heard already – in the Bulldogs hometown of Indianapolis. Hayward once again led the way with 22 points.

Why They Can Win It All

Butler isn’t some cushy mid-major that’s only good for stories and TV features. The Bulldogs can play and they do it with a very disciplined offensive style and a defense that’s given everyone problems this season. They are definitely a better team than the George Mason squad that shocked everyone by making the Final Four in 2006. It’s not even close. Especially on the defensive end. Allowing just 59.6 point per game, the Bulldogs are among the top 10 teams in the nation in scoring defense. Both Syracuse and Kansas State went through prolonged scoring droughts and considering how talented both of those teams are offensively, that’s saying something. In fact, Butler has held teams below 60 points in seven straight games and 13 of their last 14. Allowing opponents to connect on just 31.7 percent of their 3-point attempts has certainly helped that cause. And offensively, Butler has a big time player in Hayward who could be the first player selected in this June’s NBA Draft – should be decide to leave school early – of all the players participating in the Final Four. Hayward’s the perfect college swingman who isn’t afraid to drive to the basket or pull up from outside. He can score a handful of different ways. Don’t let his boyish looks and lanky frame fool you. He’s a really good player, the kind that can carry a team. But he’s got a few good role players to help him out like Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard who are accomplished scorers on their own. In all, four Bulldogs average double figures. And in the grand scheme of things, let’s face it, this isn’t the most stacked Final Four we’ve ever seen. There’s no North Carolina circa 2009 this year. No UConn circa 2004. The Final Four is wide open. There’s no reason Butler can’t win two more games to complete the improbable run.

Why They Won’t

The pressure. With Butler playing a mere five miles from campus, the amount of distractions they’re going to face this week will be double – if not triple – that of the other three teams. They’ll say all the right things in the press conferences about strictly focusing on Saturday’s national semifinal game with Michigan State, but how can they not get caught up in all the hoopla surrounding this run? Also, Butler is definitely not the biggest team. They’ll be facing a Spartans team that led the nation in rebounding margin this year and State will definitely body the Bulldogs. Butler is not a very deep team and if you can somehow get Hayward off the court it’s a very different squad. And we talk about talent all the time, but reality is other than Hayward Butler does not feature another elite player. They have some good college players but certainly not to the caliber of what Duke or West Virginia features. Brad Stevens is coaching in uncharted territory for him and his players have never been on a bigger stage. Experience counts for a lot as it gets later and later in the tournament. The Final Four has a tendency to make some players and coaches do stupid things.

It all seemed too easy for Kentucky.

With John Calipari calling the shots and the most talented set of freshmen we’ve seen on one team in quite some time, it looked like the stage was set for the Wildcats to return to what used to feel like a right of March around Lexington. The Final Four seemed like a foregone conclusion this year for the rejuvenated Wildcats as they absolutely steam-rolled through their first three NCAA tournament games, becoming the clear favorites to win it all once Kansas bowed out in the second round.

But a funny thing happened on Kentucky’s way to cutting down the nets in Syracuse Saturday. They ran into a hot-shooting West Virginia team that stood up to the supposedly bigger and badder, but most certainly younger, Wildcats and showed them that talent can only take you so far. Poise and experience count for a lot.

How else can you explain how the Mountaineers are headed to Indianapolis next week while Kentucky’s season is done?

Well, there’s a little more to it than just that. West Virginia’s red-hot hand from 3-point range, its ability to effectively rebound, its 1-3-1 defense and backup PG Joe Mazzulla’s inspired play were the catalysts to the Mountaineers winning the East Regional. Kentucky, on the other hand, maddeningly refused to do anything offensively other than launch 3s in the second half and finally had its lack of tournament experience come back to bite them. Calipari can spend the rest of the off-season wondering why he didn’t make any offensive adjustments while John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and a few other Wildcats players begin to contemplate their NBA futures.

That was the the story from the East in a nutshell. The Mountaineers weren’t huge underdogs, but most, if not all, of the pundits were picking Kentucky in this one. West Virginia coach Bob Huggins got the better of Calipari for the eighth time in nine meetings and a return trip to the Final Four, his first since taking Cincinnati there in 1992.

It was a little more of the unexpected Saturday in what has become the most unpredictable NCAA tournament we’ve ever seen.

Oh yeah, and Butler pulled off another upset against a drained Kansas State team. If you didn’t already know, the Bulldogs return home to Indianapolis where they’ll literally play host to the Final Four. It just might make for the most endearing story in this tournament that features more storylines than a day time soap.

Half of college basketball’s grandest stage is set. The other half will be by about 7:30 pm this evening. The Midwest and South regionals hold their finals this afternoon. Here’s what you need to know about both.

Midwest Regional

No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Michigan State
Line: Tennessee -1.5, O/U 136.5
KenPom: Michigan State -1
Location: St. Louis
TV: CBS, 2:20 pm
New rule when it comes to March. Never bet against Tom Izzo. When you think Michigan State is a lost cause the Spartans manage to survive and advance. They did it again Friday against Northern Iowa and they’re certainly capable of doing against the Vols. Izzo is going for his sixth Final Four since taking over in East Lansing in 1995. That’s pretty remarkable success for a man who deserves a lot more credit than he gets. Michigan State has always done it with defense and rebounding and Sunday will be no different when they meet Tennessee in the Vols’ first ever regional final. But don’t think Tennessee is going to be tight in this one. The Vols are the only team to beat Kansas and Kentucky this year so they know a thing or two about performing in big games. And as good as Michigan State is on defense, the Vols are certainly no slouch. Their pressure defense will test the Spartans and new starting point guard Korie Lucious. Don’t be surprised to see a sloppy game. Both teams have turned the ball over more times than they’ve forced mistakes so far in this tournament. And Tennessee has been pretty dominant in the paint their last two games. Michigan State is not the biggest team so look for the Vols to exploit that advantage. The battle underneath is the game within the game to watch.

South Regional

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 Duke
Line: Duke -5, O/U 138.5
KenPom: Duke -6
Location: Houston
TV: CBS, 5:05 pm
I’ve gone on record more times than I can remember saying that Duke will not make the Final Four. So far, Duke’s three opponents haven’t put up that much of a fight but the Blue Devils figure to be in for one Sunday when they meet Baylor. The Bears are the kind of athletic team that can give Duke big problems. They have very good guards who can run up and down the court, hit the outside shot and plenty of size down low that will bang around with Duke’s big men. Baylor should battle Duke on the boards where the Blue Devils have enjoyed a sizable rebounding edge through their first three tournament games. But the major cause for concern for the Blue Devils will be whether the offensive struggles against Purdue show up for a repeat performance. Duke clanged shot after shot in the Sweet 16, especially in the first half. It will be imperative for Duke to get something – anything – out of Jon Scheyer. Kyle Singler has been knocking down his shots but Scheyer’s been bricking just about every one of his in the tournament and if he can’t find his way out of the funk then Duke could be in big trouble. It’s not going to help that Baylor’s 2-3 zone has been especially effective during the season’s final stretch and their athleticism at just about every position will be hard to handle. The Blue Devils better be able to shoot over the Bears today because baskets in the paint will not be easy to come by. And another factor to keep in mind with this game is that this will essentially be a road game for the Blue Devils as Reliant Stadium will be full of Baylor fans. Duke was not exactly the best road team this season but it’s not like there won’t be plenty of Duke fans there. But just like Izzo, it’s tough to bet against Coacj K. Duke is 10-1 in regional finals under Mike Krzyzewski. History shows they don’t usually fumble away this opportunity.

Michigan State or Tennessee will be Final Four bound.

Let that sink in for a minute.

I’m still having a tough time grasping the idea that either the Spartans or Vols will be heading to Indianapolis after Sunday. I could have filled out 50 different brackets and never come up with that regional final in the Midwest. But thanks to two gritty and gutty performances Friday night, the two teams will meet in what can best be described as an unexpected Elite Eight matchup.

The Spartans out-lasted Northern Iowa while Tennessee pulled off the upset of No. 2 seed Ohio State thanks to some great defense. Unexpected – more so regarding Tennessee – to say the least.

On the other side of the bracket, we got what many expected. Duke and Baylor are set to face off in what should be a very entertaining regional final in the South. Duke’s back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2004 while the Bears are in uncharted territory for a program that wasn’t too long ago on the verge of extinction.

That was Friday. Saturday will see two teams officially punch their ticket to the Final Four. What should you expect from the West and East Regional finals? Here’s what you need to know.

West Regional

No. 5 Butler vs. No. 2 Kansas State
Line: Kansas State -4, O/U 135.5
KenPom: Kansas State -3
Location: Salt Lake City
TV: CBS, 4:30 pm
What will Kansas State have left after its epic double overtime victory in the Sweet 16? That’s the biggest question entering the West Regional final. K-State expended a ton of energy just to survive and advance against Xavier Thursday night. Several Wildcats admitted they did not get much rest Thursday into Friday and Butler, with its hounding defense, is going to make Kansas State work for every point this afternoon. The Bulldogs, on a 23-game winning streak, are just one win away from literally playing host to the Final Four. The Indianapolis-based school is foaming at the mouth with the idea of playing on the sports’ biggest stage just miles away from campus. But do the Bulldogs have another upset in them? After knocking off Syracuse in the Sweet 16, the Bulldogs have all the confidence in the world. But don’t think they’re playing with house money here. They desperately want to play in Lucas Oil Stadium next weekend in front of their fans and they’re not going to go out today and just wing it. They’ll be calculated, and don’t expect them to get rattled should Kansas State get out to an early lead – or any lead for that matter. They’re too experienced and too savvy and after watching Syracuse snatch the lead mid-way through the second half of Thursday’s game only to watch the Bulldogs battle back, and not fold like a cheap chair, then you know this team can stand up to just about anything. Perseverance might be their best quality. But can they stand up  to the ultra-hot backcourt duo of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente? If Pullen and Clemente play like they played Thursday then I don’t see Butler picking off another BCS school.

East Regional

No. 2 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Kentucky
Line: Kentucky -4, O/U 133.5
KenPom: Kentucky -2
Location: Syracuse
TV: CBS, 7:05 pm
Kentucky, in a word, has been tremendous in this tournament, looking like the clear team to beat. But the Wildcats have yet to face a team of West Virginia’s caliber in its first three games of the big dance. That being said, a lot is being made of Truck Bryant’s absence. And deservedly so considering the matchup. West Virginia missed its point guard Thursday when the Mountaineers committed a ton of turnovers in their win over Washington. Because of how explosive Kentucky’s fast break can be, it will be imperative that West Virginia take care of the ball. Another sloppy performance and there’s no way they can beat the Wildcats. And because of Bryant’s absence, Joe Mazzula will once again have the spotlight on him as he tries to run the West Virginia offense – and more importantly battle John Wall. Mazzula won’t be guarding Wall all day long – that’ll be the much bigger and athletic Devin Ebanks’ job, unsurprisingly – but whoever wins the head-to-head PG matchup will be a huge determining factor in the outcome. If WVU gets the same Mazzula that came off the bench in the Big East tournament then the Mountaineers could he headed to the Final Four. West Virginia has the size to stay with Kentucky and battle them on the boards. They don’t quite have the talent and definitely don’t have the speed. This needs to be a half-court game for the Mountaineers to win. But I expect this to be a good one, despite the fact that just about everyone is giving West Virginia almost no shot at winning. The Mountaineers will be hard pressed to keep a seventh straight opponent under 60 points, but if they can somehow limit a Kentucky team that is averaging just about 80 points per then WVU has to like its chances.

You stayed up for that Kansas State-Xavier game last night, right? That double-OT, game-of-the-tournament-so-far classic that featured big shots, multiple 30-foot 3-pointers, plenty of drama and a vintage Gus Johnson, as giddy as ever, on the mic? I thought so.

Topping what the Wildcats and Musketeers gave us Thursday will not be easy. But thankfully we got some drama last night because the quality of basketball we saw was not exactly what you would call premier, or above average for that matter. After all,  Kentucky-Cornell turned out to be pretty boring once the Wildcats began to run all over the Big Red. Safe to say that one did not materialize into what we all hoped it would. Sure, Syracuse lost to Butler in a somewhat surprising upset. But was it really all that surprising? And West Virginia-Washington was somewhat interesting for the first 25 minutes and then the Mountaineers pretty much blew away the Huskies in the second half, aside from the obligatory late second half run that made things kind of interesting for about a minute. Every game, it felt like, was a slop-filled disappointment, featuring at least 40 turnovers. It was definitely not NCAA tournament basketball at its finest. That is until we got into the late stages of the K-State-Xavier game.

So half of the Elite Eight is set. We’re waiting for the other half to settle. Friday features four more games that hopefully will pack more of a punch than Thursday – fingers crossed. And here’s what you need to know about the Midwest and South Regional semifinal matchups.

Midwest Regional

No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Line: Ohio State -4.5, O/U 134
KenPom: Ohio State -5
Location: St. Louis
TV: CBS, 7:07 pm
Ohio State has the best player in the nation handling the ball and doing the bulk of its scoring. But Tennessee features the kind of style that the Buckeyes aren’t exactly used seeing. It all makes for an interesting matchup in the evening’s first Sweet 16 matchup. The Vols like to run and play pressure defense – two things the Buckeyes aren’t used to seeing in the slow and plodding Big Ten where 120 points is considered a barn-burner. But if there’s any Big Ten team built to play with a team like Tennessee it’s Ohio State with Evan Turner leading a lineup that basically features four guards who definitely don’t mind playing a faster paced game. It’s going to be up to Tennessee to try and wear down Turner by hounding him all over the court. Turner has teammates that can burn the opposition – namely Jon Diebler and David Lighty – but let’s face it; Turner is the key to Ohio State’s Final Four aspirations. And Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl hasn’t been shy about admitting that the Buckeyes represent the biggest mismatch for the Vols. So maybe the Tennessee style won’t be that much of an issue for the Buckeyes. Dallas Lauderdale will battle Wayne Chism down low and the Vols will hope someone – anyone – can keep Turner from getting his 20-plus points.

No. 9 Northern Iowa vs. No. 5 Michigan State
Line: Michigan State -1, O/U 122
KenPom: Northern Iowa -1
Location: St. Louis
TV: CBS, 9:37 pm
No Kalin Lucas for the Spartans as the Michigan State point guard was lost for the season with an Achilles injury. The oddsmakers felt that Lucas’ absence was worth about two points so by the time this game tips Friday night don’t be surprised if Northern Iowa is actually the favorite. In their own minds, the Panthers feel like they are and have officially shed the underdog/Cinderella label that everyone wants to attach to the No. 9 seed. Reality is the Panthers are a pretty good basketball team. They have to be after knocking off Kansas last weekend. They’ve got a nice inside-outside game and a defense that just frustrates the hell out of opponents. Their only weakness in this game might be on the glass where Michigan State should have the edge. The Spartans, with their size advantage, won’t mind playing a plodding game – UNI’s preferred pace – without its leader running the show. The Spartans will once again have to rely on the improved offensive play of Raymar Morgan. The forward only averages 11.6 points per game, but has stepped it up down the stretch. Korie Lucious – he of the buzzer beater against Maryland – will be filling in for Lucas at the point and his inclusion into the starting lineup highlights the fact that the Spartans are far from the healthiest team left in the tournament. Chris Allen and Delvon Roe are nursing nagging injuries and against a team like Northern Iowa you need all the help you can get. Seriously. You might still view UNI’s Sweet 16 run as a fluke, but Michigan State coach Tom Izzo doesn’t: “I’ve said in this tournament, since I’ve been in it, when you win your first game it can be lucky, but when you get to the Sweet 16, you’re probably pretty good.”

South Regional

No. 10 St. Mary’s vs. No. 3 Baylor
Line: Baylor -4.5, O/U 141.5
KenPom: Baylor -4
Location: Houston
TV: CBS, 7:27 pm
The personality of the NCAA tournament is without a doubt Omar Samhan. The St. Mary’s big man has been a fun quote for the media all the while putting up big numbers as the Gaels upset Richmond and Villanova. That’s because the Spiders and Wildcats had absolutely no answer for the 6-foot-11 center. But that won’t be the case tonight when Baylor big man Ekpe Udoh goes toe-to-toe with with Samhan. With Udoh guarding Samhan, and quite capably one would imagine, that should mean fewer double teams on Samhan. And fewer double teams means Baylor can adequately cover the perimeter and avoid the fates of Richmond and Villanova who helplessly watched the Gaels knock down their outside shots off Samhan’s passes from the interior. Mickey McConnell – the Gaels’ second leading scorer – has been deadly from 3 this season so it will be imperative that the Bears keep him from getting too many open looks. Also of note in this one is Baylor’s proximity to its campus in Waco. It’s only a 3 1/2 hour drive for the Baylor basketball faithful – if you can even call them that – and Reliant Stadium should be decidedly pro-Bears. Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn have been all business in their preparation this week and seem hellbent on advancing Baylor to yet another round the program has never seen before.

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Duke
Line: Duke -8.5, O/U 127
KenPom: Duke -7
Location: Houston
TV: CBS, 9:57 pm
Purdue’s run is about to end here, right? I just don’t see how the Boilermakers can matchup with the Blue Devils. Especially down low. Duke will have the size advantage – Purdue has just one starter in JaJaun Johnson who is listed over 6-foot-4 – and certainly has more scorers to deal with than Purdue is used to seeing in the Big Ten. With the mighty-trio of Scheyer, Singler and Smith, Duke appears to be on the verge of its first Elite Eight since 2004, if you can believe that. The Boilermakers are going to need a game for the ages out of E’Twaun Moore if they’re going to seriously compete with Duke. The Blue Devils – who I’ve been adamant all season long won’t make the Final Four – have too much talent in this one and a better defense than I think most people are giving them credit for. They look like a team that is headed for Indianapolis. Now the tournament selection committee was nice enough to give them the easiest draw, but the Blue Devils so far have looked like the second best team in the dance. Kentucky’s still the front-runner in that category.

Has there been a more buzzed about Sweet 16 matchup in recent years than tonight’s Kentucky-Cornell game? I’m having a tough time thinking of one that’s garnered more. And it’s getting so much attention because, quite simply, there are storylines abound. Underdog, Cinderella, academics, campus anguish, tournament favorites, future pros. And not to be topped, one of the most polarizing coaches in the country will be at the center of it all.

But Kentucky-Cornell is just the fourth and final game on the schedule this evening as the NCAA Tournament shrinks from 16 to 12. So here’s what you need to know about the Wildcats-Big Red matchup. And the other three games, if you care.

West Regional

No. 5 Butler vs. No. 1 Syracuse
Line: Syracuse -6, O/U 138
KenPom: Syracuse -4
Location: Salt Lake City
TV: CBS, 7:05 pm
The big news – if you want to even call it that at this point – is that Arinze Onuaku, Syracuse’s big man, will not be unavailable for Thursday’s game and probably Saturday’s should the Orange get past the Bulldogs. Onuaku hasn’t practiced with the team since injuring his quad in the Big East tournament and if you don’t practice Jim Boeheim doesn’t play you. Syracuse didn’t really need Onuaku in its first two games as it breezed through its portion of the West Regional. But then again look who they played: No. 16 seed Vermont and a rather suspect No. 8 seed in Gonzaga. As expected, Andy Rautins and Wes Johnson carried Syracuse to the Sweet 16 and they’ll need to do the same to get the Orange to the doorstep of its first Final Four since 2003. Butler doesn’t have the horses to stick around with the Orange, especially since its star player, Gordon Hayward, just hasn’t been producing at his normal clip since he sat out the Bulldogs regular season finale against Valpo. Butler had a pretty easy time against UTEP in the first round but hung on against Murray State in the second round thanks to a gamble. But it’s going to take a lot more than one gamble for Butler to pull off this upset. More likely, it’s going to take a rather impressive shooting display. Butler basically shoots as many 3-pointers as any team left in the tournament. And we all know that one of the best ways to beat a 2-3 zone is to shoot over it.

No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 2 Kansas State
Line: Kansas State -4.5, O/U 153
KenPom: Kansas State -4
Location: Salt Lake City
TV: CBS, 9:35 pm
Only two teams have reached the Sweet 16 each of the past three years and Xavier, believe it or not, happens to be one of them. The Musketeers have quietly enjoyed remarkable success in the NCAA Tournament the last several seasons (Michigan State is the other team with three Sweet 16 appearances) and Xavier thinks another Elite Eight is well within reach. Jordan Crawford, who went for 55 points in Xavier’s first two tournament games, is the biggest reason why. One of the Musketeers top scorers, Crawford has been scintillating in the tournament but the chances of him going for another 27 or 28 aren’t very good. Crawford did not have the easiest of times getting his points when Xavier and Kansas State met back in December. The sophomore went for just 16 and Kansas State won convincingly with a brutal defense and its big bodies. The Wildcats were the victors in the rebounding battle and forced Xavier to shoot a putrid 29 percent from the field. Jacob Pullen is coming off a monster game against BYU where he poured in 34 points. Not only that, but defensively he did a pretty good job of holding Jimmer Fredette in check, one of the nation’s premier scorers this season. Can he repeat against Crawford? That’s the obvious matchup to focus on. And expect this one to be a physical game. In December’s matchup, 57 fouls were called sending the two squads to the line 73 times.

East Regional

No. 11 Washington vs. No. 2 West Virginia
Line: West Virginia -4, O/U 140.5
KenPom: West Virginia -4
Location: Syracuse
TV: CBS, 7:25 pm
Few expected Washington to make it this far, but the big question in this one is how much farther can West Virginia go now that it’ll be without the services of Darryl “Truck” Bryant, its starting point guard. Bryant averaged closer to 10 points a game for the Mountaineers before breaking his foot over the weekend or in practice and now it looks like WVU will turn to Joe Mazzula to take over. Backcourt play was already a question mark heading into the NCAA Tournament for the Mountaineers and whether Mazzula is capable of handling the added pressure of workload just might ultimately decided West Virginia’s fate. Mazzula can defend but he’s a liability on offense – he hasn’t made a 3-pointer all season long. Don’t be surprised if you see Da’Sean Butler or Devin Ebanks handling the ball for stretches. WVU coach Bob Huggins will do anything to keep his team from turning it over and prevent Washington from gaining any confidence. Not to say that Butler and Ebanks are superior ball handlers but desperate times call for desperate measures. The Mountaineers will have a decided height advantage underneath and have held their last five opponents to under 60 points, but the Huskies have a lot of momentum on their side, average just about 80 points per game and West Virginia has been prone to bad starts this season. It’ll be imperative, with a new starting point guard, for West Virginia not to fall behind early. Give Washington an inch and they may end of taking a mile if the Mountaineers aren’t careful.

No. 12 Cornell vs. No. 1 Kentucky
Line: Kentucky -8.5, O/U 147
KenPom: Kentucky -9
Location: Syracuse
TV: CBS, 9:55 pm
Since we saw it over at the Wall Street Journal first we’ll give them credit: It’s the “future MBAers vs. the future NBAers” in one of the most intriguing matchups in years in the NCAA Tournament. And it’s all going to happen in Cornell’s backyard. The Carrier Dome, roughly 60 miles away from the Cornell campus, will be full of Big Red faithful, hoping they have at least one more upset left in them. When it comes to talent and athleticism this one isn’t much of a contest. Everyone knows Kentucky has more than a few first-round NBA draft picks – in fact, they probably have this June’s top 2 picks on the roster – and that Cornell has a roster full of guys who aren’t even on athletic scholarship. But that doesn’t mean they can’t knock off the Wildcats. Cornell is a very savvy, veteran team that won’t get rattled no matter what happens. If Cornell keeps shooting the way they’ve been shooting so far in this tournament – 58.5 percent from the field in their first two games – then they have a legit shot at pulling off what some believe to be the unthinkable. But dealing with Kentucky’s explosiveness, especially John Wall and Eric Bledsoe in the backcourt, is going to be very, very tough. And considering how well Kentucky has looked so far in its first two tournament games, there’s no reason to expect anything less from the tournament favorites now that Kansas has been knocked out. As I’ve said before on many occasions, I’m still waiting for Kentucky’s youth and immaturity to show at a most inopportune time. A team like Cornell will take advantage of that. I’m not calling for an upset. But I would not be surprised if it happened.

If I’ve learned anything in the first three days of the 2010 NCAA Tournament it’s that I know nothing. I thought Wake Forest would give Kentucky a good game yesterday and the Demon Deacons lost by 30. I thought Kansas would run all over Northern Iowa and the Panthers provided us with one of the biggest upsets over the past few tournaments. And if the current trend continues, I’ll probably pick about two of today’s eight winners correctly. But that’s just par for the course in this year’s NCAA Tournament which is well on its way to earning the distinction of being the worst field in its illustrious history since the tournament expanded to 64 teams. So what upsets does Sunday hold? Here’s a late look at what you need to know about today’s games.

West Regional

No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Syracuse
Line: Syracuse -6.5, O/U 148
KenPom: Syracuse -8
Location: Buffalo
TV: CBS, 12:20 pm
Gonzaga has the offensive chops to stick around with Syracuse and this one could easily be one of the highest scoring games of the first two rounds. But can the Bulldogs play enough defense to hold down the Orange? Well, Gonzaga held its own against Florida State in first round, shutting down the Seminoles offense. But Syracuse is a bit of a different beast. With that 2-3 zone serving as the catalyst for an excellent transition game, Syracuse has a lot more weapons at its disposal than Gonzaga. But the Bulldogs can certainly keep this one close, if not steal it at the end, if they’re hitting their shots from the outside over that zone.

No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 3 Pittsburgh
Line: Pittsburgh -1, O/U 136
KenPom: Xavier -1
Location: Milwaukee
TV: CBS, 4:50 pm
Can the Panthers keep the Musketeers’ top scoring trio from going off? That’s going to be the key in this one as Xavier looks to sneak past Pittsburgh for another Sweet 16 appearance. The Panthers are going to have to keep Jordan Craford, Jason Love and Terrell Holloway in relative check otherwise I don’t think Pitt will have enough offense to stick around with Xavier. Pitt, without any big time star on its roster, wants to grind this one out and make it as physical as possible.

Midwest Regional

No. 10 Georgia Tech vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Line: Ohio State -6.5, O/U 135
KenPom: Ohio State -5
Location: Milwaukee
TV: CBS, 2:20 pm
Well, with no Georgetown and no Kansas, the Midwest Regional, thought to be the toughest when the bracket was first released, now appears to be the Buckeyes’ to lose. And the toughest test for Evan Turner and company on their way to Indianapolis and the Final Four just might be the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech’s size up front could give Ohio State some problems, especially since the Buckeyes really only have one true big man and a very thin bench. All eyes will be on Turner who did not have a particularly good game in the first round against Santa Barbara. Some have compared the Big Ten Player of the Year to the Big 12 Player of the Year, James Anderson, who the Yellow Jackets did a pretty good job of holding down in their first round win over Oklahoma State.

No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Maryland
Line: Maryland -1, O/U 147
KenPom: Maryland -3
Location: Spokane
TV: CBS, 2:30 pm
Offense vs. defense in this one. Maryland wants to run and gun while Michigan State wants to play a much more conservative game. Be on the lookout for Kalin Lucas. The Michigan State point guard has a bum ankle once again and his effectiveness could be a big issue. If he can’t play up to his normal capabilities then Michigan State is going home. State’s going to need another big game out of Raymar Morgan. Shockingly, the Spartans are the only 2009 Final Four participant still alive. Then again, considering how bad this year’s field has turned out to be should we really be that shocked? Two of the four ’09 Final Four participants – defending champ North Carolina and Connecticut – didn’t even make the tournament this year.

East Regional

No. 12 Cornell vs. No. 4 Wisconsin
Line: Wisconsin -4.5, O/U 125.5
KenPom: Wisconsin -8
Location: Jacksonville
TV: CBS, 2:50 pm
Cornell can’t shoot as well as it did against Temple, right? Well, considering the Big Red were knocking down just about everything against the Owls – one of the best defensive teams coming into the tournament – why can’t they do that against Wisconsin – another excellent defensive team. Wisconsin needs to guard the perimeter like it’s a life and death matter because if Cornell is knocking down 3s all day long then we could see the Big Red moving onto the Sweet 16. I’m thinking this one is going to be a very close game. And in this year of upsets, I can very easily see Cornell advancing.

No. 10 Missouri vs. No. 2 West Virginia
Line: West Virginia -6, O/U 139
KenPom: West Virginia -2
Location: Buffalo
TV: CBS, 2:40 pm
Can Missouri turnover West Virginia? That’s the biggest question facing both teams in this one. The Tigers feature one of the best pressure defenses in the country that produced the most steals per game in the nation and the second highest turnover margin. The Mountaineers aren’t usually sloppy with it, but then again their backcourt play is a little suspect. The slower the pace of this game the better the chances of West Virginia moving onto the Sweet 16.

South Regional

No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Purdue
Line: Texas A&M -2, O/U 127.5
KenPom: Purdue -1
Location: Spokane
TV: CBS, 5:00 pm
If Siena out-rebounded Purdue in the first round, what is that going to mean for its matchup against Texas A&M? Purdue will probably be out-muscled again in this one and if Donald Sloan has another big game for the Aggies then the Boilermakers season figures to come to a quick end. Purdue’s JaJaun Johnson is going to have a lot riding on his shoulders this afternoon.

No. 9 California vs. No. 1 Duke
Line: Duke -6.5, O/U 148
KenPom: Duke -7
Location: Jacksonville
TV: CBS, 5:15 pm
Some think Cal is capable of pulling off the upset and considering how well it played against Louisville – and how well fellow Pac-10 member Washington has played through the first two rounds – why can’t the Bears move on? Well, Duke will have a decided size advantage underneath and also the talent edge with its big three scorers – Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer. But if Cal’s knocking down its shots from the outside then this one could get interesting. There’s nothing on Cal’s resume that says they should be able to pull off a big win like this against an “elite” opponent. But hey, last time these two met in the tournament Jason Kidd and Cal pulled off the upset against Bobby Hurley and Duke.