Selection Sunday has finally arrived and with the NCAA officially releasing this year’s field of 65, we can now analyze the tournament selection committee’s decisions. And there’s a lot to analyze. So here’s some quick reaction to the bracket: What the committee got right, what they got wrong and a few other observations thrown in for good measure.
The No. 1 Seeds
As expected, Kansas was the overall No. 1 seed, earning the top spot in the Midwest region. The best team in the nation throughout the regular season will be the favorite entering the tournament. Kentucky was tabbed the No. 1 seed in the East region and the second overall top seed. Duke, in a big surprise, was handed the third No. 1 seed, slotted in the South region. Syracuse, who many believed was locked into that third No. 1 seed, was handed the top spot in the West region. No. 1 seeds are nothing new for the Jayhawks, Wildcats and Blue Devils, but not the Orange. This was just the second time Syracuse has earned a No. 1 seed. The first since – if you can believe this – 1980.
What They Got Right
– Ohio State as a No. 2 seed. The Buckeyes had a great season, but were not worthy of a No. 1 seed. Winning a share of the Big Ten regular season title and then the conference tournament in fine fashion was one thing, but not nearly enough to warrant the last No. 1 seed. Anyone arguing otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
– Minnesota got in thanks to its run in the Big Ten Tournament and a boatload of wins over the RPI’s top 50. No way you can keep out a team with wins over Butler, Purdue, Wisconsin and Ohio State.
– Notre Dame was the eighth and final Big East team to make the tournament and I thought rather appropriately slotted as No. 6 seed. Five wins over the RPI’s top 50? No way the Irish should have sweated an at-large bid. And clearly, the didn’t need to.
– Cal deservedly earned itself an at-large bid. You can’t keep a regular season winner from one of the six major conferences out of the tournament. No matter how bad that conference was this season. The Pac-10 got two bids, more than it really deserved because Washington earned its was in thanks to a win over the Bears in the conference tournament final.
– UTEP absolutely deserved to be in there. The Miners may have been the last team in the tournament, earning a No. 12 seed after losing the C-USA Tournament title, but I was very happy to see the selection committee include them. They’re a solid team team. Could give some people problems.
– Judging teams by their non-conference strength of schedules. Some notable bubble teams were left out and a big reason was their glaring lack of tough non-league games. The tournament committee should penalize teams that dog it when it comes to scheduling tough games. Wins and losses are obviously very important, but it’s not the only thing. It does matter – a whole hell of a lot – who you play and how you play in those games. The tournament committee wants the best 65 teams in the field, not the 65 teams with the best record.
What They Got Wrong
–The committee screwed up in swapping spots with Syracuse and Duke. I didn’t think Duke deserved a No. 1 seed, let alone to be the third overall No. 1 seed. West Virginia, having won the Big East Tournament and finishing second in the Big East regular season standings, was much more deserving of a No. 1 seed than the Blue Devils. The ACC was markedly weaker than the Big East this year and considering the Mountaineers played a tougher schedule than the Blue Devils, I’m really at a loss for how Duke was rated so highly by the committee. The committee said it put a lot of consideration toward Duke’s late season run, especially in the ACC Tournament. Did they not see West Virginia’s? Maybe they were blinded by Duke’s scoring differential numbers at home? That’s the only explanation I can think of. Duke will be the first No. 1 seed to go down. Take it to the bank.
– Purdue was lucky enough to earn a No. 4 seed, but without their second leading scorer Robbie Hummel who was lost for the season a few weeks ago, the Boilermakers are not one of the 16 best teams in the nation. Simple as that. Purdue’s going to be bounced pretty quickly.
– Florida as a No. 10 seed? Really?!? Did not think the Gators were a tournament team but the committee felt otherwise. Only three wins over the RPI top 50 – Tennessee, Michigan State and Florida State which are not exactly that impressive – and just a 4-6 record down the stretch was a little underwhelming in my opinion.
– You can’t tell me that Utah State is a better team than some of the other bubble teams that were left out. The Aggies lost the WAC championship game to New Mexico State but still earned an at-large bid. Two wins over the RPI top 50 was enough to earn Utah State a No. 12 seed in the South Region. If the committee is determined to get the best 65 teams into the tournament then I have a tough time believing that Utah State deserves to be one of them.
– Kind of small potatoes here, but the committee really penalized Gonzaga, shipping them out to Buffalo for their first round matchup. I say that because Spokane is hosting first and second round games this year and the Zags had pretty much expected to spend the first weekend of the tournament staying home. Gonzaga may have locked up a stay at home with a WCC Tournament win. With a 26-6 overall record, and 12-2 in WCC play, and three top 50 RPI wins, and you couldn’t keep the Zags at home? I understand that it’s supposed to be a reward for very good regular season, but didn’t Gonzaga earn that?
- De-emphasizing teams’ records in their final 10-12 games. The committee stopped weighing that a few years back but basically admitted it was a factor in determining seeding with the Nos. 1 and some other bubble teams. Yet that wasn’t the case with Florida for some reason? Shocking that the NCAA was being hypocritical. We’ve never seen that before from them. Anyway, if the selection committee is supposed to pick a field with the 65 best teams at the exact moment when the regular season ends – which is supposed to be their goal when they put together the bracket Sunday afternoon – then they need to weigh teams’ records ending the season.
The Bubble Finally Burst
– Illinois. Minnesota’s run in the Big Ten Tournament did not help the Illini. It’s very tough to leave out a team with five wins over the RPI top 50, but that 4-6 record down the stretch killed Illinois. Despite having the 33rd toughest schedule in the nation, their non-conference strength of schedule was ranked 111th best in the nation and that may have been the nail in the coffin.
– Mississippi State had two quality wins all season long – against Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. That’s it. Two wins over the RPI top 50. Mississippi State may have passed that “eye test” Sunday against Kentucky but that SEC Tournament run was the only NCAA Tournament worthy thing the Bulldogs did all season long. It was too little, too late.
– Virginia Tech’s non-conference schedule was what probably did in the Hokies. They played NO ONE this year. Tech’s non-conference strength of schedule was 339th in the nation. It’s almost criminal for an ACC team to have a non-conference strength of schedule like that. And for anyone bringing up the Wake Forest-Virginia Tech argument, I’m not buying it.
– UAB. Conference USA was extremely lucky to get two teams into the dance. No way they were getting three.
And the final general observation: What a ridiculously weak field of 65. Can’t remember seeing a bracket filled with more lackluster teams than this one. The fact that some of these teams bubble teams were even under consideration for the tournament just goes to show you how pathetic this year’s crop of college basketball is. Whoever wins the national championship this year will be stealing one. Maybe this makes for a fun tournament, maybe this one will turn out to be some memorable since we don’t have any truly dominant teams playing. But talent wise, the college game is going through a bit of a lull right now.
We’ll have more in-depth analysis on each region coming up along with looks at the sleepers, the real contenders and some of the tournaments best matchups.
