Who has the inside path at winning it all? Well, that’s largely determined by what a team’s road to the Final Four looks like. While the NCAA Tournament selection committee aims to balance each region equally, they usually end up loading one or two side of the bracket, leaving clearer paths for some teams to reach Indianapolis this April. So which teams have four wins in them? Here’s a look at each region, with a big surprise thrown in for the South.
East
Bracket Busters: No. 6 Marquette, No. 8 Texas, No. 12 Cornell
Regional Final: No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 2 West Virginia
Kentucky is the No. 1 seed in the region that will hold its final in Carrier Dome in Syracuse. And because of that, the Orange were forbidden from being slotted into the region. The Wildcats path to the Final Four is certainly not daunting, but far from easy. A second round matchup with No. 8 seed Texas – at one time the No. 1 team in the nation – possibly awaits in the second round. No. 4 seed Wisconsin is another team that many have been talking up heading into the tournament and their methodical, plodding style and maturity could frustrate Kentucky should they meet in the Sweet 16. But the Badgers first have to get past the 5/12 winner between Temple and Cornell, one of the most interesting first round games.
On the bottom half of the region, No. 2 seed West Virginia should have an easy time making it to the Sweet 16. The Montaineers should be able to handle the winner of the 7/10 matchup between Clemson and Missouri while a potentially very interesting matchup in San Jose in the second round between Marquette and New Mexico will determine who meets the Mountaineers in the third round. The only real threat to an Elite Eight appearance for West Virginia comes in the form of fellow Big East member Marquette.That and the Mountaineers tendency to lose focus from time to time.
That being said, I’m expecting a Kentucky-West Virginia regional final but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Wildcats don’t get there. Kentucky’s immaturity and inexperience will cost them at some point and West Virginia has the size and shooting ability to beat anyone in the nation. So if the Mountaineers can continue to get consistent guard play – and Da’Sean Butler keeps playing like he did in the Big East Tournament – then Mountaineers will be on their way to Indy.
South
Bracket Busters: No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 9 Louisville, No. 13 Siena
Regional Final: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
Call me crazy. Call me an idiot. Call me different. Call me whatever because I doubt many others are going to pick a Texas A&M-Notre Dame regional final. But I’m going out on a limb and here’s why: Duke is not that good. And as the No. 1 seed in the region, the Blue Devils are going to make a much earlier exit than many people think. If you look at the offensive efficiency ratings, the Blue Devils look like a world beater, but watching them closely against a mediocre – at best – ACC this season then you’d know that this Duke team is lacking in size and athleticism and aside from a few games here and there has not been tested like it will in the NCAA Tournament. Sure the Blue Devils can out-shoot plenty of teams but it’s not going to take much for Duke to be out-muscled down low and pushed around a little. And I think that can happen in the second round should the Blue Devils meet Louisville. The No. 9 seed Cardinals are a little bit of an enigma and sometimes you just shake your head at them, wondering what’s their problem? They’re madly inconsistent, but they have so much talent and so much potential. Don’t expect much from Purdue, the No. 4 seed, without Robbie Hummel. The Boilermakers aren’t that good without their second leading scorer and it should be a quick stay in the tournament. Texas A&M should beat Utah State in a matchup between the Aggies – the tournament selection committee’s attempt at humor – and can easily beat the Purdue-Siena winner. And the fact that A&M is playing in Houston will certainly help them advance.
On the bottom half of the region, Villanova is a shaky No. 2 seed. With a lack of size and big time defensive issues, I’d be shocked to see the Wildcats make a deep run in the tournament. Others are hyping the Wildcats to make a return trip to the Final Four. I definitely don’t see it. Notre Dame will have a tough path to the Sweet 16, having to first get past No. 11 seed Old Dominion and then most likely Baylor, the No. 3 seed. Baylor is an interesting team to watch. Certainly not very experienced in big March games but definitely dangerous. A lot of people are going to pick the Bears to make a run to the Elite Eight. But the reason we’re going with Notre Dame to make it to the there is rather simple: They’re hot. Having won six of their last seven games, the Irish played their way into the tournament and have kind of reinvented themselves on the fly, with Luke Harangody now serving as the nation’s best six man. They’ve slowed things down over the second half of the season, grinding out wins, and that’s a formula that can be successful late in March. They’ve got guys who can shoot the lights out from beyond the arc and a big man who is as offensively skilled as they come in the college game. They’re flying under the radar a little if you ask me. But they’re a legit team. Don’t sleep on the Irish.
Midwest
Bracket Busters: No. 6 Tennessee, No. 10 Georgia Tech
Regional Final: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 3 Georgetown
Kansas, the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament, was given the toughest path of the four No. 1 seeds. The Jayhawks have a number of tough teams in their region and just getting to the regional final will be tough sledding. A second round matchup with either UNLV or UNI looms while we could see a Sweet 16 showdown with Michigan State or Maryland. Kansas clearly has the talent advantage but anything can happen in the tournament and I would expect a tough, tough game from the either the Spartans or Terps – I’ll say the Terps – in a Sweet 16 matchup. But neither the Spartans or Terps have the manpower that Kansas does.
The bottom half of the region is wide open with No. 2 seed Ohio State, No. 3 seed Georgetown, No. 6 seed Tennessee and No. 10 seed Georgia Tech fighting it out to reach the regional final. The two most talented teams in this region are the Hoyas and Yellow Jackets, but don’t expect much from the young and inexperienced Jackets. Tech has got some great young players on their squad but they’re still a year or two away from making a legit run. That being said, they won’t be an easy out. Ohio State should take care of the Yellow Jackets in the second round while a Tennessee-Georgetown second round meeting will be garner plenty of attention. I’m giving the Hoyas the edge to get to the regional final for a few reasons. For starters, the Hoyas have a highly-skilled big man in Greg Monroe who has few peers in the game today. Plus he’s got some very good teammates in Austin Freeman and Chris Wright who do more than their fare share. Ohio State has the soon to be national player of the year in Evan Turner and the best starting five in the Big Ten. But the Big Ten is not the Big East and if you’ve heard John Thompson III talk up his team this past week as they made their run to the Big East Tournament final then you know it appears the Hoyas are rounding into form after some February struggles. I’ll be looking forward to that Ohio State-Georgetown Sweet 16 matchup. But even if the Hoyas prevail in that one, the Elite Eight is as far as they’re going to get. Kansas, with its embarrassment of riches, will be moving on to another Final Four.
West
Bracket Busters: No. 6 Xavier, No. 7 BYU
Regional Final: No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Kansas State
Syracuse got jobbed by the selection committee and was shipped out west. But their path to the Sweet 16 is pretty clear. Maybe their consolation for being the fourth overall No. 1 seed was to sit on top of the weakest region. If so, that’s not a bad tradeoff. The Orange will take care of Vermont – who coincidentally got its only NCAA Tournament victory against Syracuse in 2005 – in the first round matchup and No. 4 seed Vanderbilt, No. 5 seed Butler and No. 8 seed Gonzaga should not present big challenges to the vastly more talented Orange in potential matchups in the second and third rounds. Expect Syracuse to smoothly sail into the regional final.
No. 2 seed Kansas State has a few more road bumps facing it on its quest to get to the regional final in Salt Lake City. The Wildcats are likely looking at a Sweet 16 matchup with No. 3 seed Pittsburgh if the Panthers can get by the 6/11 winner between Xavier and Minnesota. As for K-State’s second round matchup, that will come against either BYU or Florida. But unless the Wildcats just don’t show up or have an off night, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t take care of business against either the Cougars or Gators. No team in this portion of the bracket has the overall talent that Kansas State features and the Wildcats – aside from Pittsburgh – are without a doubt the most physical team in the lower half of the bracket.
So expect a Syracuse-Kansas State regional final which will make for a very intriguing game. How will the Wildcats handle the Syracuse 2-3 zone? Will they be able to shoot well enough from outside? Syracuse certainly won’t be intimidated by the Wildcats physical play but it won’t be easy chasing around Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente. The health of Arinze Onuaku, who might miss the Orange’s first weekend of the tournament, will bear watching. If Syracuse doesn’t have its big man for the Sweet 16 then it would get a little dicey. There’s something about this Kansas State team that I’ve liked all season and even though they’ve failed in a few big spots – namely three times against Kansas – I say the Wildcats get it done this time around. And I don’t like the fact that Syracuse enters this one on a two-game losing streak. Something about them hasn’t been quite right in a few weeks. Andy Rautins and Wes Johnson are a load to deal with and one of them could easily carry Syracuse to the Final Four. But I’m just really liking Kansas State. So are a lot of other people.
