Sick of the whole David vs. Goliath theme?
If you’re not already you surely will be by the time tonight’s national championship game tips-off. Duke has returned to its role of being the big, bad favorite that everyone loves to hate while mid-major Butler, playing in its hometown, is the underdog hoping to complete a storybook ending this evening.
Both have taken very different paths to get here yet feature many similarities. So who has the edge? Here’s are the keys to tonight’s game as the 2009-10 college basketball season officially comes to end.
Duke vs. Butler
Line: Duke -7.5, O/U 128
KenPom: Duke -7
Location: Indianapolis
TV: CBS, 9:21 pm
If You Like Defense: First thing’s first. When comparing these two you start with defense because they both excel on that end. Duke and Butler are among the nation’s best when it comes to the defensive efficiency ratings. Duke sits at No. 3 nationally in the ratings, giving up an average of 85.8 points per 100 possessions, while Butler comes in at No. 6, allowing 86.4 points per 100 possessions. Butler has the advantage when it comes to points allowed per game but can you chalk that up to the lesser conference competition they’ve played? To a degree, yes, but look at what Bulldogs have done in the tournament holding UTEP, Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State to 59 points or less. Butler just defends the hell out of teams in the half court. They don’t have a shot blocking presence. They don’t have a true lockdown guard on the perimeter. They just play great half court team defense and are phenomenal at forcing turnovers without the help of a full court press of any other kind of pressure defense. Considering Duke’s struggles at making 2-point baskets, that plays into the hands of Butler big time. That being said, Duke features its best defensive team arguably in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s long tenure with the Blue Devils. They’re longer and bigger than Butler and we saw the Bulldogs struggle mightily to establishe any kind of low post presence when Matt Howard wasn’t on the floor against Michigan State Saturday. And even when he was out there, Howard had to work like a dog to get any sort of decent shot off. Duke should rule the paint tonight. Butler will launch a lot of 3s.
Duke's Kyle Singler attempts to block the layup attempt from West Virginia's Joe Mazzulla in Saturday's national semifinal. (AP)
Size Does Matter: Duke will have a decided height-advantage underneath and Howard, he of the mild concussion suffered Saturday in the win over Michigan State, is actually questionable for the game. No way he doesn’t play but he will have a tall order trying to box out Brian Zoubek. As we’ve said for the past several days, Duke is a excellent offensive rebounding team and they’re going to get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight unless Butler somehow is able to keep Duke from crashing the boards. Between Zoubek, Kyle Singler and the Plumlee brothers, Butler does not have the bodies to matchup with Duke. Expect plenty of passes to the perimeter tonight off Duke misses. And just like they did against West Virginia, expect the Blue Devils to bury a number of those second chance 3s.
Get Low: Butler wants this game to be like the one we saw against Michigan State. Slow, methodical, plodding and hopefully no more than 110 total points scored. That’s the way Butler wins games. They can’t get into a shootout with Duke because it doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. Now it’s not like Duke is a run-and-gun type of team either but it certainly has more offensive weapons at its disposal than Butler. While I think the matchup on the front line and Duke’s dominance on the boards will be most telling, the second most telling matchup of the game will be the job Butler does on Duke’s guards, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored will have their hands full this evening chasing around those two. Scheyer and Smith have combined to score 91 points in the Blue Devils’ last two games. But we’ve seen Mack, Nored and the rest of the Bulldogs do a pretty good job of holding down some of the tournament’s best offensive guards like Andy Rautins, Jacob Pullen and Korie Lucious. None of them had good games against Butler – just like their teams.
Star Power: Gordon Hayward’s going to have to take Butler on his back in this one. On the big stage, Butler’s best player will need to shine brightest for the Bulldogs to keep this one close and have a chance to steal it in the final minutes. The best players are supposed to play their best in the biggest games. And not only is Hayward Butler’s best player, but he’s probably be the best player on the court tonight. All you have to do is look at the NBA Draft projections. Hayward’s considered to be a first-round pick should he leave school early. No Duke player is projected to be selected this June.
Butler coach Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs have won 25 straight games. (AP)
The Bench: It’s Coach K vs. baby-faced Brad Stevens. Krzyzewski is going for his fourth national title tonight while Stevens is just in his third year of being the head coach at Butler. Clearly the advantage is in Krzyzewski’s favor. In fact, it’s not even a competition. But Stevens has been getting a lot of pub for his cool, calm demeanor. It’s gotten Butler this far and the coach has shown no signs of panic. No reason to think tonight will be any different. One other subplot. Could this be Krzyzewski’s last game coaching the Blue Devils?
Prediction: Duke 70, Butler 61. As much as I want to see the Bulldogs win – for the wonderful story it would be and for the fact that I predicted Duke would never get to the Final Four months ago, then repeatedly writing how they would be bounced early in the tournament once the brackets were released, setting me up for what could be plenty of ridicule – I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Duke’s got plenty of momentum. All the key players are seemingly at the top of their game right now. They have a huge size advantage and one of the all-time greats calling the shots. I never thought I’d be writing this – this is not a great Duke team by any stretch of the imagination – but your 2010 national champion will be the Blue Devils. The haters will be out in full force tonight.
