The Double Bonus

The Double Bonus

Sports' greatest postseason spectacle - the NCAA Tournament

Category: A-10

Season Predictions & Projections

With the season officially kicking off Monday evening, it’s time to put some season predictions on the record. So here’s a quick look at the six major conferences and a few of the more high profile mid-majors, running down the projected champion, sleeper team, player and freshman of the year in each.

ACC
Champion: Duke
Don’t Sleep On: Virginia Tech
Player of the Year: Kyle Singler, Duke
Freshman of the Year: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Georgetown's Austin Freeman averaged 16.5 ppg last season. (AP)

Big East
Champion: Villanova
Don’t Sleep On: Syracuse
Player of the Year: Austin Freeman, Georgetown
Freshman of the Year: Fab Melo, Syracuse

Big Ten
Champion: Michigan State
Don’t Sleep On: Wisconsin
Player of the Year: Jon Leuer, Wisconsin
Freshman of the Year: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Big 12
Champion: Kansas State
Don’t Sleep On: Missouri
Player of the Year: Marcus Morris, Kansas
Freshman of the Year: Cory Joseph, Texas

Pac-10
Champion: Washington
Don’t Sleep On: Arizona
Player of the Year: Isiah Thomas, Washington
Freshman of the Year: Keala King, Arizona State

SEC
Champion: Florida
Don’t Sleep On: Georgia
Player of the Year: Trey Tompkins, Georgia
Freshman of the Year: Tobias Harris, Tennessee

Atlantic 10
Champion: Temple
Don’t Sleep On: Richmond
Player of the Year: Lavoy Allen, Temple
Freshman of the Year: Juwan Staten, Dayton

CAA
Champion: Old Dominion
Don’t Sleep On: VCU
Player of the Year: Denzel Bowles, James Madison
Freshman of the Year: It’s a needle in a haystack situation down there.

C-USA
Champion: Memphis
Don’t Sleep On: Southern Miss
Player of the Year: Gary Flower, Southern Miss
Freshman of the Year: Joe Jackson, Memphis

Mountain West
Champion: BYU
Don’t Sleep On: San Diego State
Player of the Year: Jimmer Fredette, BYU
Freshman of the Year: Kendall Williams, New Mexico

WCC
Champion: Gonzaga
Don’t Sleep On: Loyola Marymount
Player of the Year: Mickey McConnell, Saint Mary’s
Freshman of the Year: Sam Dower, Gonzaga

NCAA Tournament Seeds

1. Duke
1. Pittsburgh
1. Michigan State
1. Kansas State

2. Kansas
2. Villanova
2. Florida
2. Kentucky

3. Ohio State
3. Memphis
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin

4. North Carolina
4. Temple
4. Gonzaga
4. Baylor

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, C-USA, MWC, Pac-10, SEC, WCC | Add a comment

How Tomorrow’s Top 25 Should Look

In college basketball, the polls don’t really matter that much. So for argumentative purposes here’s what I think the newest AP Top 25 should look like when it’s released Monday afternoon – the final one of the regular season.

1. Kansas (29-2, 15-1 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 2
Last Week: Defeated No. 5 Kansas State, @ Missouri
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Jayhawks return to their rightful place as the nation’s top team.

2. Kentucky (29-2, 14-2 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 3
Last Week: Defeated @ Georgia Florida
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Wildcats will be the No. 1 seed in the South Region when the brackets are released next Sunday.

3. Syracuse (28-3, 15-3 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 1
Last Week: Defeated St. John’s, Lost @ Louisville
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Short stay for the Orange atop the rankings. Still like them to get to Indy for the Final Four but they’re not the best team in America.

4. Duke (26-5, 15-3 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 4
Last Week: Lost to No. 22 Maryland, Defeated North Carolina
This Week: ACC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Duke earned a share of its 12th ACC regular season title after it handed the Tar Heels their worst loss in Durham in the storied rivalry’s history.

5. West Virginia (24-6, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated No. 19 Georgetown, @ No. 8 Villanova
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Mountaineers have picked up some impressive wins down the stretch. Still think their guard play is a little suspect, but I think they’re an Elite Eight team.

6. Kansas State (24-6, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 5
Last Week: Lost @ No. 2 Kansas, Defeated Iowa State
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Wildcats may have blown their chance at securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament but expect them to make a big run in the dance. Some think they’re overrated. I’m not one of them.

7. Ohio State (24-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 6
Last Week: Defeated Illinois
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Nice to see that everyone pretty much has Evan Turner as their player of the year. No one has been more valuable to their team.

8. Villanova (24-6, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 8
Last Week: Defeated @ Cincinnati, Lost to No. 10 West Virginia
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Wildcats aren’t exactly generating a lot of buzz entering the postseason. But I guarantee no one wants to play them.

9. Michigan State (24-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 11
Last Week: Defeated Penn State, Michigan
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Spartans earned a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State and Purdue with a drubbing of the Wolverines Sunday. Still don’t like the way Michigan State is playing as they head into postseason play. But don’t count out Kalin Lucas and Tom Izzo.

10. New Mexico (28-3, 14-2 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated TCU
This Week: MWC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
The Lobos as a No. 2 seed in the tournament? Looks like it’s going to happen.

11. Purdue (26-4, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 7
Last Week: Defeated Indiana, @ Penn State
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No.2  seed)
Boilermakers did alright in their first full week without Robbie Hummel. But then again look who they played.

12. Vanderbilt (23-7, 13-4 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 13
Last Week: Defeated @ Florida, Lost to South Carolina
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
The drop off after the first seven or eight teams is pretty steep. No way a team of Vanderbilt’s caliber should be this high but it’s just one of those years…

13. Pittsburgh (24-7, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 17
Last Week: Defeated Providence, Rutgers
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 2 seed)
If Jim Boeheim wasn’t having the kind of season he and the Orange are having, Jamie Dixon would be a lock to pick up Big East Coach of the Year honors.

14. Gonzaga (26-5, 13-2 WCC)
Pvs. AP: 18
Last Week: Defeated CSU-Bakersfield, Loyola Marymount
This Week: WCC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Bulldogs look on their way to adding yet another WCC Tournament title to the mantle.

15. Tennessee (23-7, 11-5 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 16
Last Week: Defeated Arkansas, Lost @ Mississippi State
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 5 seed)
Tough to figure out the Vols. One week they’re knocking off Kentucky the next week losing badly to a bubble team. They’re not going anywhere in the tournament.

16. Wisconsin (23-7, 13-5 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 15
Last Week: Defeated Iowa, @ Illinois
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Badgers will be very familiar with their first round opponent in the Big Ten tourney having just played them Sunday.

17. BYU (28-4, 13-3 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 14
Last Week: Defeated @ Utah, @ TCU
This Week: MWC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Cougars fans are a little worried about Jimmer Fredette after the PG has scored just 32 in his last three games, well off his average.

18. Butler (27-4, 18-0 Horizon)
Pvs. AP: 12
Last Week: Defeated Wisconsin-Milwaukee
This Week: Wright State (Horizon Tournament Championship Game)
Many eyes will be on Tuesday’s game. Horizon is a one-bid league so if the Bulldogs lose that means an an at-large invitation will be off the board.

19. Maryland (23-7, 13-3 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 22
Last Week: Defeated No. 4 Duke, @ Virginia
This Week: ACC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Terps got a little revenge against the Blue Devils at home Wednesday and look forward to round No. 3 with their hated rivals in the conference championship game.

20. Baylor (24-6, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 21
Last Week: Defeated @ Texas Tech, Texas
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Bears have quietly had a very good season. I guarantee you no one had Baylor pegged as the league’s third best team when the year started. In fact, the media picked them to finish 10th. Scott Drew’s doing quite a job in Waco.

21. Temple (26-5, 14-2 A-10)
Pvs. AP: 20
Last Week: Defeated @ Saint Louis, George Washington
This Week: A-10 Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Anyone else rooting for a Temple-Xavier showdown in the A-10 championship game?

22. UTEP (24-5, 14-1 C-USA)
Pvs. AP: 24
Last Week: Defeated @ Marshall, UAB
This Week: C-USA Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Miners wrapped up the C-USA regular season crown with two good wins, especially the one on the road against Marshall.

23. Georgetown (20-9, 10-8 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 19
Last Week: Lost @ No. 10 West Virginia, Defeated Cincinnati
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 8 seed)
Sad news about Austin Freeman but hopefully the diagnosis will help him feel better and in turn get the Hoyas playing better basketball. Team is capable of making a big tournament run.

24. Texas A&M (22-8, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 23
Last Week: Defeated Oklahoma State, @ Oklahoma
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Not expecting much out of the Aggies when the tournament rolls around but they’ll be a tough out.

25. Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 Big East)
Pvs. AP: NR
Last Week: Defeated Connecticut, @ Marquette (OT)
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 7 seed)
Don’t know how the Irish are doing it without Luke Harangody (who just returned from a five game absence) but they’re beating everyone right now and should be heading to the NCAA Tournament.

Others Who Just Missed The Cut (And In No Particular Order): Marquette, Mississippi State, Louisville, Xavier

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, C-USA, Horizon, MWC, Polls, SEC, WCC | 1 Comment

Weekend Primer: One Week Away

It’s the last weekend of the regular season for the big conferences and Selection Sunday is just a week away. A few league titles are up for grabs and of course there will surely be plenty of bubble bursting action.

Saturday

No. 10 West Virginia at No. 9 Villanova
KenPom: Villanova -2
TV: CBS, 12 pm
Does Villanova has a shot at a No. 1 seed? Absolutely. And a season sweep of the Mountaineers would do wonders if the Wildcats are that hellbent on securing one of the NCAA Tournament’s top seeds. Nothing is really at stake in this one other than the Wildcats’ seeding. Both teams have double byes in next week’s Big East Tournament. Whoever wins the battle of the boards takes this one.

No. 22 Maryland at Virginia
KenPom: Maryland -7
TV: Raycom, 1:30 pm
Terps are coming off the big win against Duke and need a win over the Cavs to at least earn a share of the ACC title. No reason they shouldn’t get it against a Virginia team that hopes to make the NIT.

No. 2 Kansas at Missouri
KenPom: Kansas -2
TV: CBS, 2 pm
Kansas will look to cement its status as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament before it heads into the Big 12 Tournament. But in order to do that they’re going to have to beat hated-rival Missouri and do so in Columbia, which is no easy task.

No. 1 Syracuse at Louisville
KenPom: Syracuse -4
TV: ESPN, 2 pm
Louisville has in all likelihood wrapped up an NCAA Tournament bid but if they want to improve their seeding knocking off the nation’s top team would be a big help. Freedom Hall will host its final regular season game that will be sure to feature plenty of flashbacks and reminiscing. The place has a ton of history and deserves to go out in style. Remember that Louisville kicked off its push toward the dance with a win in Syracuse, but the Orange are looking to go undefeated on the road. Yes, you read that correctly.

Notre Dame at Marquette
KenPom: Marquette -8
TV: ESPN Full Court, 2 pm
Two NCAA Tournament teams here and that’s saying something because a few weeks ago both of these teams were fighting for their bubble lives. But since they’ve reeled off big win after big win coming down the stretch both will be dancing in two weeks. Marquette has won nine of its last 10 while Notre Dame comes in on a three-game winning streak. Expect Notre Dame big man Luke Harangody to miss another game.

No. 18 Tennessee at Mississippi State
KenPom: Mississippi State -3
TV: ESPN, 6 pm
The Bulldogs are on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament. A win over the Vols would do wonders for their chances. Probably wouldn’t cement an at-large bid but no matter what bracketologists across the country are saying about Mississippi State, this is an absolute must-win for the Bulldogs.

North Carolina at No. 4 Duke
KenPom: Duke -18
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
You know the situation. If Maryland beats UVa., then the onus is on Duke to take care of its arch-rival to earn a share of the ACC title. I doubt the Blue Devils are going to have much trouble with the Tar Heels. Just a hunch.

Bubble Busting Specials: Connecticut at USF, Saint Louis at Dayton, UAB at No. 24 UTEP

Others To Keep An Eye On: George Washington at No. 20 Temple, No. 7 Purdue at Penn State, Texas at No. 21 Baylor, St. Bonaventure at Xavier, Iowa State at No. 5 Kansas State, No. 14 BYU at TCU, Cal at Stanford

Sunday

Florida at No. 3 Kentucky
KenPom: Kentucky -11
TV: CBS, 12 pm
Florida’s bubble could officially burst – baring a huge run in the SEC Tournament – if they can’t win at Rupp. And we all know the chances of that happening are slim to almost none. So the Gators are seriously looking at a third straight NIT if something miraculous doesn’t happen on the road. Wonder how serious John Calipari will take this game considering the Wildcats have already locked down the SEC regular season title?

No. 15 Wisconsin at Illinois
KenPom: Wisconsin -4
TV: ESPN, 2 pm
This is an absolute must for the Illini. For the most part, all the prognosticators have Illinois out of the tournament. Opportunity is knocking at the door. Will the Illini answer?

Michigan at No. 11 Michigan State
KenPom: Michigan State -8
TV: CBS, 4 pm
The Spartans must take down their in-state rival to earn a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State. Michigan State just barely survived a close one with Penn State Thursday and the “struggles” at home continued. The Spartans are usually a very good home team but they narrowly avoided losing a third straight at the Breslin Center. Something seems to be off with the Spartans and I can’t quite put my finger on it. They need to turn it on ASAP.

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, C-USA, MWC, Pac-10, SEC, Weekend Primer | Add a comment

Thursday Morning Fast Break

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Thursday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 2 Kansas 82, No. 5 Kansas State 65
The big matchup in the Big 12 turned out to be a bit of a dud as the Jayhawks rolled past the Wildcats in Allen Fieldhouse. Sherron Collins said an emotional goodbye to the Kansas faithful on senior night with 17 points – despite some shaky shooting. The Jayhawks celebrated another Big 12 regular season title in fine fashion as they clinched their sixth straight conference crown. Kansas State’s hopes for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament were dealt a blow, but the Wildcats can still earn one of the four coveted spots with a big run in next week’s Big 12 Tournament. Only problem is Kansas will probably await in the championship game.

No. 22 Maryland 79, No. 4 Duke 72
Don’t hand the ACC to Duke just yet. The Terps, behind a raucous crowd, prevented the Blue Devils from wrapping up the regular season conference title thanks to Greivis Vasquez’s 20 points. The Terps are now tied with their hated rival atop the conference standings and it will all be determined this weekend when Maryland heads to Virginia while Duke hosts North Carolina. Vasquez also might have wrapped up ACC Player of the Year honors. Duke’s Jon Scheyer – Vasquez’s main competition for the honor – had 19 points, but the Maryland senior stole the show in his final home game.

Notre Dame 58, Connecticut 50
The Fighting Irish picked up a huge win on their road to the field of 65 while handing UConn a serious setback on theirs. Notre Dame struggled shooting in the first half but broke out in the second half while UConn took bad shot after bad shot and reverted back to its old ways of turning the ball over haphazardly. You would think this win puts Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament while UConn may have some work to do when they hit New York for the Big East Tournament. Huskies picked a bad time to play their worst game of the season. It was so bad that during an 18 minute span – from mid-way through the first half to mid-way through the second – UConn scored six points.

Links

Xavier and Temple both won Wednesday meaning the A-10 title will be up for grabs this weekend. The Musketeers close out with St. Bonaventure while Temple takes on George Washington.

In the first upset of the conference tournament season, top seed Lipscomb went down in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. [Macon Telegraph]

And if you want a good spot to really follow all the smaller conference tournaments, might we suggest you look here. [Blogging The Bracket]

Here’s a rarity. A coach admitting a mistake. UCLA’s Ben Howland should be applauded. [Los Angeles Times]

Interesting quote from Texas coach Rick Barnes. Let’s just say the national title isn’t a priority. [ESPN.com]

Wesley Johnson seems to think he’ll be back at Syracuse next season. [Syracuse Post-Standard]

A look at this year’s biggest surprises and disappointments. [Yet Another Basketball Blog]

Josh Herwitt’s power rankings features a new No. 1. [FoxSports.com]

Tonight’s Must See Games

Penn State at No. 11 Michigan State
Line: Michigan State -13
KenPom: Michigan State -12
TV: ESPN, 7 pm
Only game with major implications in one of the six major conferences Thursday, Michigan State needs to win its final two games if it wants to earn a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State. The Buckeyes clinched a share Tuesday night and the top seed in the conference tournament next week so the Spartans are looking to earn a share of the league title and also avoid a rare three-game losing streak at home. To do that, the Spartans are going to need to contain Taylor Battle who has torched them in the past.

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Fast Break | Add a comment

Wednesday Morning Fast Break

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Wednesday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 13 Vanderbilt 64, Florida 60
Vandy kept alive its hopes of an SEC regular season title by earning its first victory in Gainesville in its last nine tries Tuesday. But on the other end of the spectrum, the Commodores handed Florida a crucial loss in their drive to the field of 65. Vandy gave itself the chance to steal the conference crown if Kentucky loses its final two games and while that’s not likely, Florida missing the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year is certainly possible. The Gators, unless they can knock off the Wildcats this weekend in Lexington, might be a little on the anxious side when Selection Sunday finally arrives in a week and a half.

No. 6 Ohio State 73, Illinois 57
The Buckeyes clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament next week with a convincing win over the Illini in Columbus. In their regular season finale, the Buckeyes capped quite the turnaround after a 1-3 start in the league, winning 13 of their last 14 games. Illinois, on the other hand, has picked a bad time to start losing and the Illini are going to sweat out Selection Sunday. A matchup with Wisconsin this weekend to close out the regular season could be their last chance to improve a shaky resume.

No. 9 Villanova 77, Cincinnati 73
Put a fork in Cincinnati’s NCAA Tournament hopes because they’re done after the Bearcats couldn’t knock off the Wildcats at home. Scottie Reynolds scored all 17 of his points in the second half and helped stake Villanova to a 16 point lead before things got closer than head coach Jay Wright would have liked. Unless Cincinnati can rip off an improbable run in next week’s Big East Tournament the Bearcats are looking at the NIT.

Links

Syracuse cruised past St. John’s in its first game as No. 1. [Syracuse Post-Standard]

UTEP clinched the C-USA regular season title by beating Marshall on the road. [El Paso Times]

Minnesota needed a win over Michigan Tuesday and the Gophers played like a bunch of dogs against a dead Wolverines team. No NCAA Tournament for Minnesota. [Minneapolis Star-Tribune]

Pat Forde, in his latest Forde Minutes, highlights the nation’s best venues. [ESPN.com]

Purdue’s E’Twaun Moore and JaJaun Johnson are planning on coming back to Purdue next season. Good news for Boilermakers fans. [Indianapolis Star]

Vegas Watch ran an NCAA Tournament simulation and the favorite to win it all is…Duke. [Vegas Watch]

This probably means Craig Robinson won’t be the next head coach at DePaul. [The Sporting News]

Stewart Mandel tackles NCAA Tournament expansion which seems – unfortunately – more and more inevitable. There are not enough words in the English language to properly convey my disgust for the most hyper-sensitive, insanely needling, controlling and hypocritical organization in the U.S. But I just gave you five to start. [SI.com]

Tonight’s Must See Game

Connecticut at Notre Dame
Line: Notre Dame -2
KenPom: Notre Dame -2
TV: ESPN, 7 pm
Simply put, it’s a Big East bubble game. A must win for both teams, and probably more so for UConn after their home loss to Louisville Sunday. The Irish are one of the hottest teams in the conference, having ripped off recent wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, all without leading scorer Luke Harangody. The Irish big man will likely miss Wednesday’s game, his fifth straight, but that hasn’t stopped Notre Dame from making a late season surge toward the NCAA Tournament. If UConn wants to continue their push taking care of the ball will be paramount. Another 22 turnover performance will send them to the NIT.

No. 5 Kansas State at No. 2 Kansas
Line: Kansas -9.5
KenPom: Kansas -7
TV: ESPN Full Court, 8 pm
One of the biggest games of the season is not on national TV – which is unfathomable – so you better have access to ESPN Full Court or some other means of watching this game because this will have big implications on the national picture. Kansas State is playing for that final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and probably needs this win to secure that. Kansas is still considered to be the No. 1 overall seed by tournament prognosticators, but might that status change with a second straight loss? It’s a shame a national audience won’t see this one considering how good of a game these two gave us in their first meeting.

No. 4 Duke at Maryland
Line: Duke -1.5
KenPom: Duke -3
TV: ESPN, 9pm
Duke can wrap up the regular season ACC title or make the weekend much more interesting when they visit College Park. Maryland sits one game behind the Blue Devils in the conference standings with two games to go. So it’s all out there for the Terps. Win and tie the Blue Devils. Lose and settle for second. Also at stake? ACC Player of the Year consideration. It’s a two-man race between Duke’s Jon Scheyer and Maryland Greivis Vasquez. And many – including one ACC coach – believe it should be Vasquez

Others To Keep An Eye On: No. 2 Kentucky at Georgia, TCU at No. 8 New Mexico, No. 14 BYU at Utah, No. 20 Temple at Saint Louis

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, C-USA, Fast Break, General, MWC, SEC | Add a comment

Monday Morning Fast Break

A quick look at when went on yesterday and what to look out for Monday.

Yesterday’s Action

No. 14 Michigan State 53, No. 3 Purdue 44
We’ve got a two-way tie atop the Big Ten standings thanks to the Spartans win on the road. No Robbie Hummel meant a relatively easy victory for Michigan State. “Don’t kid yourself,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said after the game, “they missed him and missed him a lot.” The Spartans are now tied with Ohio State atop the conference while Purdue sits a half-game back because the Boilermakers couldn’t knock down a shot. In fact, they were downright awful, shooting just 30 percent from the field. And getting out-rebounded badly by the Spartans did not help matters either even though State turned it over like it was in style. Purdue sits a half game out of first place and its dream of a regular season title appears to have come to an end. Michigan State closes out the regular season with home dates against Penn State and Michigan while Ohio State has just Illinois left.

Louisville 78, Connecticut 76
The Cardinals picked up a huge win as their late season surge continues. Any fretting by Rick Pitino and company over an NCAA Tournament at-large berth can probably cease thanks to a boatload of UConn turnovers. Louisville has pretty much punched its ticket after they backed up an upset of Georgetown earlier in the week with a gritty win in Storrs. UConn led big in the first half, but Louisville hung tough in the second half and took advantage of 22 Huskies’ mistakes. Despite being badly out-rebounded, Louisville reeled off its six win in its last eight games as they handed UConn a setback on their road to the field of 65.

Xavier 78, No. 23 Richmond 76, 2OT
Xavier took down league leading Richmond creating a two-way tie atop the conference standings with Temple – who later beat LaSalle – as the Musketeers continue their march toward a fourth straight A-10 title. It was a pretty entertaining game that featured 12 ties and 14 lead changes as Xavier reeled off its 23rd-straight home game. Familiarize yourself with Xavier because they’re going to win some games in March.

Links

Marquette won its third straight overtime game – yes, third straight – and continued its drive toward an at-large berth. [Milwaukee Journal Sentinel]

According to John Calipari, an SEC title means nothing. And he’s 100 percent right. [AP]

You probably missed it, but Davidson had itself quite the improbable win Saturday night. [Davidson Wildcats via Yahoo.com]

How, you ask, did Wesley Johnson – an Iowa State transfer – end up in Syracuse? Here’s your answer. [Syracuse Post-Standard]

Tonight’s Must See Games

No. 11 Georgetown at No. 8 West Virginia
Line: West Virginia -5.5
KenPom: West Virginia -7
TV: ESPN, 7 pm
Good Georgetown or bad Georgetown? Flip a coin. Who knows what team you’re going to get when the Hoyas head to Morgantown tonight. Georgetown seriously has the talent to make a Final Four run but for reasons that have stupefied experts from coast to coast, the Hoyas can’t put together any kind of consistent run. How can you explain getting destroyed at home by a Luke Harangody-less Notre Dame team Saturday in the same building where you roughed up Villanova and Duke earlier in the season? While Georgetown tries to right the ship, West Virginia is looking to shore a top four seed in the Big East Tournament next week having won three of its last four.

Oklahoma at No. 21 Texas
Line: Texas -14.5
KenPom: Texas -17
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
Actually, this game is not a must see. It’s just on national TV so if you have nothing better to do than watch two teams going absolutely nowhere – Texas will be in the NCAA Tournament of course, but doomed to an early exit – then tune in. I’ll be anxious to see if the Longhorns are still ranked when the new polls come out early this afternoon.

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Fast Break, SEC | Add a comment

How Tomorrow’s Top 25 Should Look

In college basketball, the polls don’t really matter that much. So for argumentative purposes here’s what I think the newest AP Top 25 should look like when it’s released Monday afternoon.

1. Kansas (27-2, 12-1 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 1
Last Week: Defeated Oklahoma, Lost to @ Oklahoma State
This Week: No. 6 Kansas State, @ Missouri
Not penalizing the Jayhawks for a conference road loss, their first of the season. Personally, I think you’ll have a hard time justifying putting anyone ahead of Kansas.

2. Kentucky ( 27-2, 12-2 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 2
Last Week: Defeated South Carolina, Lost to No. 19 Tennessee
This Week: @ Georgia, Florida
See above, only this was Kentucky’s second conference road loss.

3. Syracuse (27-2, 14-2 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 4
Last Week: Defeated @ Providence, No. 7 Villanova
This Week: St. John’s, @ Louisville
The Orange dismantled Villanova at home in front of a record crowd and pretty much clinched the Big East regular season title.

4. Duke (25-4, 12-2 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 5
Last Week: Defeated Tulsa, @ Virginia
This Week: @ Maryland, North Carolina
Very much looking forward to Duke being bounced in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. This team is not going anywhere, despite what some others would rather have you believe.

5. Kansas State (24-4, 11-3 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 6
Last Week: Defeated @ Texas Tech, Missouri
This Week: @ No. 1 Kansas, Iowa State
Wildcats have quietly positioned themselves to steal a No. 1 seed if things break in their favor over the next two weeks.

6. Purdue (24-4, 12-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 3
Last Week: Defeated @ Minnesota,
This Week: Indiana, @ Penn State
Terrible that the Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel and I’m not really sure how much you should punish them for it.

7. Villanova (23-5, 12-4 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 7
Last Week: Defeated South Florida, Lost to No. 4 Syracuse
This Week: @ Cincinnati, No. 8 West Virginia
I’m sure many feel the Wildcats should be penalized for the thrashing Syracuse handed them Saturday. But can’t justify putting WVU ahead of Nova considering Nova  beat the Mountaineers a few weeks ago.

8. West Virginia (22-6, 11-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 8
Last Week: Lost to @ Connecticut, Defeated Cincinnati
This Week: No. 11 Georgetown, @ No. 7 Villanova
Mountaineers can leapfrog the Wildcats if they beat them in Philly next weekend.

9. Ohio State (23-7, 13-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 9
Last Week: Defeated @ Penn State, Michigan
This Week: Illinois
Evan Turner for Player of the Year. I don’t even think it’s much of a debate.

10. New Mexico (27-3, 13-2 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated @ Colorado State, @ No. BYU
This Week: TCU
That win in Provo against the Cougars was tough. Lobos are going to be a dangerous team in the tournament.

11. Michigan State (22-7, 12-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 14
Last Week: Defeated @ Indiana
This Week: Penn State, Michigan
Spartans are tied atop the Big Ten with Ohio State.

12. Pittsburgh (22-7, 11-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 12
Last Week: Lost @ Notre Dame, Defeated @ St. John’s
This Week: Providence, Rutgers
Panthers ran into the buzzstorm that is Notre Dame who are knocking off ranked teams – minus Luke Harangody – like it’s nothing special.

13. Vanderbilt (22-6, 11-3 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 16
Last Week: Defeated Georgia, @ Arkansas
This Week: @ Florida, South Carolina
Have I mentioned before how much I like Jermaine Beal’s game? Can be inconsistent, but when he’s on…

14. Georgetown (19-8, 9-7 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 11
Last Week: Defeated @ Louisville, Lost to Notre Dame
This Week: @ West Virginia, Cincinnati
Trying to figure out Georgetown is harder than quantum physics.

15. Tennessee (21-7, 9-5 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 19
Last Week: Lost to Florida, Defeated No. 2 Kentucky
This Week: Arkansas, @ Mississippi State
Just when I thought the Vols were a dead team…

16. Gonzaga (24-5, 12-2 WCC)
Pvs. AP: 18
Last Week: Defeated Santa Clara, San Francisco
This Week: CSU Bakersfield
All the Bulldogs are focused on is earning a spot in the first-second round pod in hometown Spokane.

17. Wisconsin (21-7, 11-5 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 17
Last Week: Defeated Northwestern, Indiana
This Week: Iowa, @ Illinois
Unassuming Badgers will enter the tournament just as that.

18. Texas A&M (20-8, 9-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 22
Last Week: Lost to @ No. 24 Baylor, Defeated No. 21 Texas
This Week: Oklahoma State, @ Oklahoma
Would not be shocked to see the Aggies slip into the Sweet 16.

19. Butler (26-4, 18-0 Horizon)
Pvs. AP: 15
Last Week: Defeated @ Valporaiso
This Week: Horizon League Tournament
Bulldogs’ regular season came to end Friday night. Now get ready for conference tournament. Bubble teams will keep a close eye on Horizon because Butler’s an at-large if they don’t win the tournament.

20. Temple (24-5, 12-2 A-10)
Pvs. AP: 20
Last Week: Defeated Dayton, @ La Salle
This Week: @ Saint Louis, George Washington
Owls may have dealt a fatal blow to Dayton’s at-large chances with that victory in the middle of the week.

21. BYU (26-4, 11-3 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 13
Last Week: Defeated San Diego State, Lost to No. 10 New Mexico
This Week: @ Utah, @ TCU
Remember, the Cougars will be playing on the first day of the tournament. BYU does not compete on Sundays.

22. Xavier (21-7, 12-2 A-10)
Pvs. AP: NR
Last Week: Defeated @ Saint Louis, No. 23 Richmond
This Week: @ Fordham, St. Bonaventure
Musketeers sit atop the A-10 with Temple after taking down Richmond in OT.

23. Baylor (22-6, 9-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 24
Last Week: Defeated @ No. 22 Texas A&M, @ Oklahoma
This Week: @ Texas Tech, No. 21 Texas
Bears in three-way tie for third place in the Big 12 with Missouri and A&M.

24. Louisville (19-10, 10-6 Big East)
Pvs. AP: NR
Last Week: Defeated No. 11 Georgetown, @ Connecticut
This Week: @ Marquette, No. 4 Syracuse
Cardinals have turned it on the last few weeks. Officially punched their ticket to the tournament with that win against Connecticut.

25. Texas (22-7, 8-6 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 21
Last Week: Defeated Oklahoma State, Lost to No. 22 Texas A&M
This Week: Oklahoma, @ No. 24 Baylor
If my memory serves me correctly, this was a national title contender, right? Injuries have decimated Longhorns like no other.

Others Who Just Missed The Cut (And In No Particular Order): Marquette, Notre Dame, UTEP

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Horizon, MWC, Polls, SEC, WCC | Add a comment

Weekend Primer: About To Hit The Stretch

Nary a non-conference game on the schedule this weekend as the nation’s top leagues hit their stretch run. Two more weeks until conference tournaments kick off. Three weeks until Selection Sunday.

Saturday

No. 2 Kentucky at No. 19 Tennessee
KenPom: Kentucky -1
TV: CBS, Noon
Tennessee looks like its limping toward the finish line, having taken a few steps back in the national picture over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Kentucky just keeps rolling over weaker opponents. Now chances are the Wildcats aren’t going to blow out the Vols in Knoxville like they did when the two met Feb. 13 in Rupp. Tennessee’s going to come to play because Kentucky always gets every team’s best shot. But it doesn’t help the Vols that their best player – center Wayne Chism – is banged up and the Vols might be very lucky to get 25 minutes out of the big man.

Cincinnati at No. 8 West Virginia
KenPom: West Virginia -13
TV: Local, 2 pm
If Cincy wants to assure itself of an NCAA Tournament berth then beating the Mountaineers in Morgantown is a must. If you go by Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket projections, the Bearcats are one of the first four teams out of the Tournament. Let’s hope the whole angle of Bob Huggins facing his old school goes by the wayside because it’s beyond played out. But surprisingly, or maybe not so surprising at all, Huggins is fourth among active coaches in career wins with 660 behind the likes of Coach K, Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun. WVU will be looking to snap a two-game skid.

No. 10 New Mexico at No. 13 BYU
KenPom: BYU -12
TV: Versus, 4 pm
First place in the conference is on the line when the Lobos visit Provo for a Mountain West showdown and the winner most likely will take the league’s regular season title. So this one means something. BYU is the MWC’s top offensive squad while New Mexico has arguably the conference best player in Darrington Hobson, a 6-foot-7 scorer. Although Cougars fans would easily argue that Jimmer Fredette should own that title considering he’s leading the conference in scoring and is second in assists. New Mexico ended BYU’s 15-game winning streak when the two met earlier this year so you’ve got the whole revenge angle working in this one.

No. 1 Kansas at Oklahoma State
KenPom: Kansas -9
TV: CBS, 4 pm
Will the Jayhawks lose a Big 12 game? Oklahoma State is not an easy place to play but this is Kansas’ “easiest” game left on the schedule. Another showdown with Kansas State at home looms in four days after the meeting with the Cowboys. Then a trip to Columbia for another blood battle with Missouri. So if Kansas is going to get caught napping it’s going to come against the Cowboys. K-State and Missouri might knock off Kansas, but losing to either of those two wouldn’t be a surprise. Oklahoma State would.

Missouri at No. 6 Kansas State
KenPom: Kansas State -5
TV: ESPNU, 8 pm
Speaking of the Tigers and Wildcats…Interesting matchup between these two and an even more important game for K-State. Some think the Wildcats possibly have a chance at earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament but if they want to make that a reality losing to Missouri is not an option.

No. 7 Villanova at No. 4 Syracuse
KenPom: Syracuse -8
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
Biggest matchup of the year in the Big East. Conference leading Syracuse will have 34,00-plus fans rocking the Carrier Dome like it’s never been rocked before. The Orange can pretty much put a ribbon on the Big East regular season title with a win and lock in a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Touranment. Villanova, sitting a game behind the Orange, has its eyes on securing a No. 1 seed in the Tournament but it would most likely require a win here. Villanova’s offense is shifty and athletic enough to battle that Syracuse 2-3 zone. It’ll be strength against strength Saturday night and by far the most intriguing game of the weekend.

Others To Keep An Eye On: Notre Dame at No. 11 Georgetown, No. 12 Pittsburgh at St. John’s, No. 16 Vanderbilt at Arkansas, No. 24 Baylor at Oklahoma, No. 21 Texas at No. 22 Texas A&M

Sunday

No. 23 Richmond at Xavier
KenPom: Xavier -8
TV: ESPN2, 1 pm
Loser of this one drops a game behind the other two Atlantic 10 leaders (we’re assuming Temple takes care of LaSalle later Sunday) and most likely drops out of the race of the regular season title.

Louisville at Connecticut
KenPom: Connecticut -4
TV: CBS, 2 pm
Big game for both teams. Connecticut is tenuously in the field of 65 right now after some impressive wins over the last week, including two against Top 10 Big East teams. Louisville’s in as well, but both are No. 12 seeds which means they’re teetering on the verge of dropping out of the bracket. Louisville probably needs this game more for its resume considering it only has two wins over teams in the Top 50 of the RPI. But UConn needs more quality wins since it only has three victories over the RPI Top 50. Both teams come in having won three of their last four.

No. 14 Michigan State at No. 3 Purdue
KenPom: Purdue -9
TV: CBS, 4 pm
Huge game in the Big Ten. Boilermakers own a one-game lead over the Spartans in the conference standings but with no Robbie Hummel few are expecting Purdue to emerge with the regular season title when it’s all said and done. Can Purdue beat Michigan State without Hummel? Yes, they can. But the long term prognosis for the Boilermakers is not good without their second leading scorer not to mention their heart and soul. The sting of that injury is going to stay with Purdue for a long time. Don’t be surprised if there’s a bit of a hangover. But they will be buoyed by the home crowd in Mackey Arena. E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson are going to have to pick up some of the slack, mainly the 15.7  ppg Hummel was averaging. Side story to all of this will be Purdue’s NCAA Tournament seeding and how much of a hit it takes over the final weeks of the season and how heavily the selection committee weighs Hummel’s injury. Purdue had No. 1 seed potential. Not anymore.

Others To Keep An Eye On: Marquette at Seton Hall, No. 5 Duke at Virginia

Posted in A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, MWC, SEC, Weekend Primer | Add a comment
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