The Double Bonus

We’re a month away from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The stretch run is here. And things start off with a BracketBuster game that could go a very long way toward determining the fates of plenty of bubble teams.

Saturday

Siena at No. 18 Butler
KenPom: Butler -8
TV: ESPN2, 11 am
The biggest of all the BracketBuster games, although this matchup lost a little bit of its luster when the Saints fell to Niagara on the road last week. Butler seems like a sure bet to lock up an NCAA Tournament at-large bid should they not win the Horizon League Tournament. But the same can’t be said for Siena. If the Saints want to leave themselves any wiggle room than they’re going to need to knock off the Bulldogs because at this point in the season it looks like it’s MAAC Tournament champs or bust.

Xavier at Charlotte
KenPom: Xavier -7
TV: CBS College Sports, 2 pm
As quickly as Charlotte was on top of the A-10 they have been relegated to the middle of the pack and another conference loss might end any chance they have at winning the conference’s regular season title. Xavier sits at 9-2 in the league, tied with Temple, and one game behind conference leading Richmond. Charlotte, meanwhile, find itself in third place these days having dropped two straight and no longer are considered a safe bet to make the field of 65. They need to keep winning, preferably against teams that would look great on their resume (i.e. Xavier) because there’s no way the league’s going to get close to the 5-to-6 teams like into the dance some were predicting a few weeks ago.

Illinois at No. 4 Purdue
KenPom: Purdue -12
TV: ESPN, 4 pm
Remember when the Boilermakers had that three-game losing streak in early January and had seemingly fallen out of contention in the Big Ten? Well, thanks to eight straight wins in league play Purdue finds itself tied with Big Ten leader Michigan State in the loss column. No one is playing better right now in the conference than the Boilermakers and it has many starting to talk about this team being Final Four material. I’m not buying that considering how small the Boilermakers are up front. But they do have one hallmark of a championship team: Defense. Ken Pomeroy has the Boilermakers fourth in his adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.

No. 2 Kentucky at No. 17 Vanderbilt
KenPom: Kentucky -1
TV: ESPN, 6pm
Vanderbilt would like to have that game in Rupp Arena back. You remember it. The one they lost by 13 because of the Cats’ dominance a few weeks ago. Well, with revenge on the mind, the Commodores will look to pull even in the SEC East standings with the Wildcats. John Wall and company head to Nashville for their second straight road game after an emotional win Tuesday at Mississippi State. Vanderbilt’s going to have to figure out how to stop DeMarcus Cousins inside because they didn’t come close to containing the big man last time out. And it would help if A.J. Ogilvy, Vandy’s center, stayed out of foul trouble and was a little more assertive on the offensive end after attempting just four shots in that Jan. 30 game.

Others To Keep An Eye On: No. 21 Temple at Saint Joseph’s, Seton Hall at No. 8 West Virginia, No. 20 Tennessee at South Carolina, No. 22 Baylor at Oklahoma State, No. 15 Texas at Texas Tech, No. 7 Kansas State at Oklahoma, No. 13 Gonzaga at Pepperdine

Sunday

No. 3 Villanova at No. 19 Pittsburgh
KenPom: Pittsburgh -3
TV: CBS, Noon
How will Villanova bounce back from that upset loss to Connecticut Monday night? It’s not going to be easy as the Wildcats continue their death march through their heavily backloaded Big East schedule. The Panthers come into this one with recent wins over West Virginia and Marquette, having seemingly put those struggles from a few weeks ago behind them. Villanova needs this one to keep pace with Syracuse in the Big East standings.

No. 9 Ohio State at No. 11 Michigan State
KenPom: Michigan State -1
TV: CBS, Noon
This game could have been for first place in the Big Ten but Ohio State had to go and ruin things by losing to Purdue Wednesday night. But it’s not like the Buckeyes aren’t still in the race. Sitting just a game behind the Spartans, and half a game behind Purdue, Ohio State is in the thick of one of the most hotly contested races the conference has seen in recent memory. It’ll be fun to watch Evan Turner, the soon to be Big Ten Player of the Year (in my opinion), battle it out with Kalin Lucas, last year’s Big Ten Player of the Year.

Virginia Tech at No. 6 Duke
KenPom: Duke -13
TV: FSN, 7:45 pm
Duke will easily be a double-digit favorite when the lines are posted for this one because they’ve been annihilating everyone at home this season. Closest game in Cameron Indoor Stadium so far? A nine-point win over St. John’s back in December. But Virginia Tech currently sits at No. 2 in the ACC standings, just a game back in the loss column. I sincerely hope all the talk about the Hokies being a bubble team is over and done with. If they’re not a tournament team it’ll be a disgrace. But if they really want to silence all the critics, beating Duke on the road would be a hell of a way to do it.

Others To Keep An Eye On: Northwestern at No. 14 Wisconsin

A quick look at what went on yesterday and what to look out for Monday.

Yesterday’s Action

No. 3 Syracuse 71, Cincinnati 54
The Orange were down in this game with only 12 minutes to go and then blistered the Bearcats thanks to some tough defense. Cincinnati only hit one field goal in those final 12 minutes thanks to that dominating 2-3 zone and Syracuse earned its 10th straight victory, improving  to 23-1. And Syracuse did all this without an effective Wes Johnson who only played 23 minutes – scoring five points – after falling hard in the Orange’s previous game against Providence.

Maryland 92, North Carolina 71
This pretty much says all you need to know right now about the Tar Heels, from the AP recap: It was the sixth loss in seven games for the Tar Heels, their worst streak since 2002. The defending NCAA champions are 10th in the ACC, a half-game out of last place.
Greivis Vaquez had 26 points and 11 assists for the Terps who remain firmly in second place in the ACC. North Carolina literally played no defense Sunday.

Links

USF‘s four-game Big East winning streak came to an end in South Bend. [Tampa Tribune]

When you lose to your rival by 20 points, the future does not look bright, especially when the fans start chanting “Good-bye, Erine” [OregonLive.com]

Gary Parish gives us his Top 25 (and one) featuring Georgetown at No. 8. [CBSSports.com]

Jeff Goodman gives us a rundown of his Top 25. [FoxSports.com]

Which reminds me, how did I forget to put Baylor, or Texas A&M for that matter, in my Top 25 from Sunday? I’d like a do-over on that one. Clearly not my best effort.

The Dagger weighs in on the controversial ending between rivals Murray State and Austin Peay. [Yahoo.com]

A four-star guide to Rivalry Week’s best matchups. [Sporting News]

Tonight’s Must See Games

No. 2 Villanova at No. 6 West Virginia
Line: West Virginia -4.5
KenPom: West Virginia -8
TV: ESPN, 7 pm
If you haven’t heard, ESPN is hyping this upcoming week of college basketball as “Rivalry Week.” But they’re starting off with a game that’s anything but a rivalry considering these two have only met 38 times. Nonetheless, it’s an enticing matchup between two of the Big East’s – and the nation’s – best teams. How will Villanova bounce back from the pounding they received Saturday from Georgetown? Will Da’Sean Butler get the better of Scottie Reynolds, like he did in last year’s Mountaineer rout? West Virginia can tie for second place in the conference with a win.

No. 1 Kansas at No. 9 Texas
Line: Kansas -2
KenPom: Kansas -3
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
Two weeks ago no one could wait for this one, but thanks to Texas’ 2-4 records in its last six, this game’s lost a lot of luster. But it’s still a big matchup and it’s still important in the Big 12 because a Kansas win would bury Texas in the conference standings. We’ve gotten close games in the past between these two. Three of the last five have been decided by four points or less. The Longhorns will be jacked to face the nation’s top-ranked team at home, but will their horrendous free throw shooting (61 percent for the season) do them in like it pretty much did Saturday in their loss to Oklahoma? Kansas has won five of the last six, including three Big 12 Tournament championship games.

Others: Fairfield at Siena, Loyola-Chicago at No. 23 Butler

In college basketball, the polls don’t really matter that much. So for argumentative purposes here’s what I think the newest AP Top 25 should look like when its released Monday afternoon.

1. Kansas (22-1, 8-0 Big 12)
Pvs: 1
Last Week: Defeated @ Colorado OT, Nebraska
This Week: @ No. 9 Texas, Iowa State
The Jayhawks survived a pesky Colorado team on the road and took care of business at home. No reason to move them from the top line.

2. Syracuse (23-1, 10-1 Big East)
Pvs: 2
Last Week:  Defeated Providence, @ Cincinnati
This Week: Connecticut, Louisville
Just like the Jayhawks, the Orange did what they had to do. The win at Cincy was surprisingly easy as the Orange pounded the Bearcats.

3. Kentucky (22-1, 7-1 SEC)
Pvs: 4
Last Week: Defeated Mississippi, @ LSU
This Week: Alabama, Tennessee
John Wall looked like the John Wall of a month ago and the Wildcats cruised to two relatively easy victories. The win against the Rebels was only a touch tougher than the laugher they had in Baton Rouge. Big showdown looms with the Vols next weekend in Rupp.
 
4. Georgetown (17-5, 7-4 Big East)
Pvs: 7
Last Week: Lost to USF, Defeated No. 2 Villanova
This Week: @ Providence, @ Rutgers
Clearly the Hoyas were looking ahead to Villanova. That’s the only way to explain how they lost to the Bulls in the middle of the week at home. Because if you watched how Georgetown took apart Villanova offensively – coupled with their beatdown of Duke a few weeks back – then you know the loss to red-hot USF was an aberration.

West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler. (AP)

5.  West Virginia (19-3, 8-2 Big East)
Pvs: 6
Last Week: Defeated No. 22 Pittsburgh, @ St. John’s
This Week: No. 2 Villanova, @ No. 22 Pittsburgh
West Virginia doesn’t like to do things easy. In fact, they like to spot their opponents about 10-15 points heading into halftime before they decide to really play in the second half. But it hasn’t mattered over their current six-game winning streak. Tough week for the Mountaineers with Nova coming to town and then the second installment of the Backyard Brawl where you can bet the refs will have a quick whistle to prevent any of last week’s chippiness from returning.  

6. Villanova (20-2, 9-1 Big East)
Pvs: 2
Last Week: Defeated Seton Hall, Lost to @ No. 7 Georgetown
This Week: @ No. 6 West Virginia, Providence
Villanova is a very good offensive team, but they showed they’re a seriously flawed defensive team Saturday. Georgetown had no problems scoring in the paint and exploiting opportunities around the basket.  Tough turnaround for the Wildcats Monday night with a trip to Morgantown. That easy schedule they’ve cruised through the Big East so far turns decidedly harder starting this week.

7. Duke (19-4, 7-2 ACC)
Pvs: T-10
Last Week: Defeated No. 21 Georgia Tech, @ Boston College
This Week: @ North Carolina, Maryland
Seriously, Duke looks like a machine at home. On the road, it’s a very different story. The rivalry with UNC this year will be slightly muted with the Tar Heels struggles, but it’ll be interesting to see how they play against the struggling defending national champs.

8. Kansas State (19-4, 6-3 Big 12)
Pvs: T-10
Last Week: Defeated @ Nebraska, @ Iowa State
This Week: Colorado, Nebraska
The second best team in the Big 12? Is that really even a debate at this point? The Wildcats will continue to enjoy a mini-break in their conference schedule.

9. Purdue (19-3, 7-3 Big Ten)
Pvs: 8
Last Week: Defeated Penn State, @ Indiana
This Week: @ No. 5 Michigan State, Iowa
Kalin Lucas should be back for Michigan State in the Big Ten’s marquee matchup this week that have huge implications on the standings.

10. Wisconsin (18-5, 8-3 Big Ten)
Pvs: 16
Last Week: Defeated No. 5 Michigan State, @ Michigan
This Week: Illinois, Indiana
They’re just steady with the basketball – mostly deliberate – and a sure thing at home. The Badgers are 133-10 under Bo Ryan in games played in the Kohl Center.

11. Michigan State (19-5, 9-2 Big Ten)
Pvs: 5
Last Week: Lost to @ No. 16 Wisconsin, Illinois
This Week: No. 8 Purdue, @ Penn State
It’s all about Lucas for Michigan State. If he’s healthy, they’re the best team in the Big Ten. If he’ not, then the Spartans don’t have a go-to guy down the stretch of games they can rely on. Few matter more to their team than Lucas. He should be good to go for the Tuesday matchup with Purdue.

12. Tennessee (18-4, 6-2 SEC)
Pvs: 14
Last Week: Defeated @ LSU, South Carolina
This Week: @ No. 21 Vanderbilt, @ No. 4 Kentucky
It’s Hell Week for the Vols. Two rivals, two teams that would love to pound Tennessee, especially the Commodores. Bruce Pearl would sign for 1-1 in a heartbeat.

13. Ohio State ( Big Ten)
Pvs: 13
Last Week: Defeated Penn State, Iowa
This Week: @ Indiana, @ Illinois
The Buckeyes are enjoying a lull in their schedule and taking full advantage of it while Evan Turner racks up big numbers.

Gonzaga's Matt Bouldin. (AP)

14. Gonzaga (19-4, 7-1 WCC)
Pvs: 17
Last Week: Defeated Portland, @ Memphis
This Week: St. Mary’s, San Diego
Gonzaga showed you something, knocking off Portland Thursday night and then traveling all the way to Memphis for a Saturday afternoon game against the Tigers in which they solidified their top 15 status with an impressive win.

15. New Mexico (21-3 , 7-2 MWC
Pvs: 15
Last Week: Defeated San Diego State
This Week: @ UNLV, @ Utah
They’ve won seven straight and sit atop the MWC in a three-way tie with BYU and UNLV. Things pick up for the Lobos with two tough games on the road, including that big one with the Rebels in Vegas who just took down BYU.

16. Maryland (16-6, 6-2 ACC)
Pvs: NR
Last Week: Defeated @ Florida State, North Carolina
This Week: Virginia, @ No. 10 Duke
I know it’s a huge jump up for the Terps and many might call me crazy for having them this high, but I’m going to give them some props for being neck and neck with Duke for first place in the ACC. We’ll really see what Maryland is made of this week with two tough games, especially the one in Cameron.

17. Texas (19-4, 5-3  Big 12)
Pvs: 9
Last Week: Defeated @ Oklahoma State, Lost to @ Oklahoma
This Week: No. 1 Kansas, Nebraska
Texas has proven itself to be nothing more than an average Big 12 team. Were they really No. 1 two weeks ago?

18.  UTEP (17-5, 8-1 C-USA)
Pvs: NR
Last Week: Defeated Houston, Tulsa
This Week: @ SMU, East Carolina
The Miners lead Conference USA after beating Tulsa Saturday night in a showdown for first place. On a seven-game winning streak, UTEP is now in the driver’s seat to secure what figures to be C-USA’s only NCAA Tournament bid.

19. Charlotte (18-5, 8-1 A-10)
Pvs: NR
Last Week: Defeated George Washington, Fordham
This Week: @ Dayton, Duquesne
Everyone know who’s leading the Atlantic 10 right now? That would be the 49ers, owners of a seven-game winning streak that includes victories over Richmond and Temple.

20. Northern Iowa (21-2, 12-1 MVC)
Pvs: 24
Last Week: Defeated Wichita State, Southern Illinois
This Week: @ Drake, @ Bradley
By knocking off Wichita State, and exacting a little revenge from their earlier loss to the Shockers’, UNI now is firmly entrenched as the top team in the Missouri Valley. Wichita sits three games behind the Panthers in the loss column.

21. Siena (20-4, 13-0 MAAC)
Pvs: NR
Last Week: Defeated Iona
This Week: Fairfield, @ Niagara
Owners of the nation’s longest winning streak at 12, it’s time that Siena break through into the rankings. They should cruise into their BracketBuster matchup at Butler in two weeks with a 15-game winning streak at hand.

22. Temple (19-5, 7-2 A-10)
Pvs: 19
Last Week: Defeated Duquesne, Lost to @Richmond
This Week: Rhode Island
Temple no longer is on top of the A-10 after two losses the past two weeks and if they don’t want to slip down any further in the standings then they’re going to have to complete the season sweep of of the Rams next weekend in Philly.

23. Rhode Island (19-3, 7-2 A-10)
Pvs: NR
Last Week: Defeated @ La Salle, UMass
This Week: Richmond, @ Temple
Very tough week for URI with Richmond then Temple on the schedue. But the Rams have come out of nowhere to stick their nose in the thick of the A-10 race and appear well on their way to securing an NCAA Tournament bid should they keep winning.

24. BYU (22-3, 7-2 MWC)
Pvs: 12
Last Week: Defeated TCU, Lost to @ UNLV
This Week: Air Force, Colorado
The Cougars lost another one on the road to one of the Mountain West’s top teams and the latest defeat to the Rebels was nothing short of a beatdown.

25. Butler (20-4, 13-0 Horizon) 
Pvs: 23
Last Week: Defeated Detroit, Wright State
This Week: Loyola (Ill.), @ Youngstown State
Butler took care of business as expected. One of only six teams still undefeated in their conference.

Just Missed The Cut (And In No Particular Order): Cornell, UNLV, USF

With rumors swirling that the NCAA is on the verge of expanding the NCAA Tournament from a nearly perfect 65 teams to a ridiculous 96 teams, the debate has raged. Media members and fans alike think its an absurd idea while many coaches think it’s great.

I, like so many others, wonder why the powers that be in college basketball want ruin a good thing? Some of the many reasons why increasing the number of teams in the NCAA Tournament is a bad idea:
* Why reward teams for mediocre seasons, like college football’s bowl system does?
* Why devalue the regular season when there are already complaints about its importance?
* It would zap the buzz around the conference tournaments.
* Who wants to fill out that gigantic bracket for their office pool?

And there are plenty more. But we all know the reason why things would change: $$$$$$$$. And it all depends on what the NCAA decides to do with the Tournament’s television contract that could be up for bidding this summer. If you’re not up to speed about the ongoings, check out the SportsBusiness Journal for the best rundown of the posturing.

But if you’re wondering what a 96-team NCAA Tournament would look like this year, you’re in luck. The boys at Rush The Court did a fine job putting together a bracket and a breakdown of all the second-tier teams that would make the Tournament if Selection Sunday were Wednesday. And the results are not pretty.

Ready to have a Tournament that features all 12 ACC teams? Thirteen teams from the Big East, four of which have sub-.500 conference records (Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall and UConn)? William & Mary that has four losses in CAA play? A Louisiana Tech team that has no wins against a Top 50 RPI program and a SOS of 324? Three – THREE?!?! – teams from the abysmal Pac-10?  

Yeah, can’t wait to see that. What a joke…

For Division I’s mid-major players, each year they anxiously await to hear which BracketBuster matchup they’ll have the honor of playing in come late February because, well, it’s kind of a big deal. In a mere 40 minutes, and just three weeks before the start of the NCAA Tournament, postseason hopes can be dashed in a game between non-conference foes who would normally never meet. This year’s matchups were announced Monday and feature some very intriguing games that will go a long way toward shaping this year’s bracket. While there are 11 games pitting 19 teams ranked in the top 100 of the RPI, here’s a quick look at the three everyone should catch.

Friday, Feb. 19

Old Dominion (RPI: 46, SOS: 92) at Northern Iowa (RPI: 17, SOS: 94)
Two teams that have at-large hopes should they not win their conference tournaments. Old Dominion sits behind George Mason and Northeastern in the CAA standings, but does have an impressive resume so far with wins over Georgetown and Charlotte on the road and William & Mary at home. UNI, on the other hand, doesn’t have the marquee win that ODU does. But they did beat Siena at home back in December and own five more wins against teams in the top 100 of the RPI, along with a perfect record on their own turf. If they don’t win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament they’re still going to get an at-large bid anyway. That RPI is too strong for the Panthers to be left out. Old Dominion isn’t as clear cut. Should be a good defensive show in this matchup.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Butler's Gordon Hayward. (AP)

Siena (RPI: 44, SOS: 149) at Butler (RPI: 19, SOS: 50)
Siena doesn’t have the most impressive resume considering the Saints only have two wins over tp 100 RPI teams. But they do have a solid RPI thanks to a strong non-conference schedule that included games against Temple, UNI and Georgia Tech on the road. Many feel Butler will get into the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens to them in the Horizon Tournament. And considering their credentials, they’re probably right. Butler racked up wins over Xavier, Ohio State and Northwestern earlier in the season. And just like UNI, that RPI is too high to be left on the outside looking in. In terms of publicity, this game will top the other 10.

College of Charleston (RPI: 92, SOS: 172) at George Mason (RPI: 104, SOS: 182)
Both of these teams could really use another notable win. Everyone knows who George Mason is, but few know College of Charleston. All they did this year was knock off North Carolina at home. They also played Clemson, Tennessee and Western Carolina on the road – all teams with NCAA Tournament aspirations. Charleston leads the SoCon South Division with a 9-1 record. George Mason leads the CAA with 10-1 record, but doesn’t have a particularly great resume. Their best chance right now, just like Charleston, to get into the dance might be to win the conference tournament. The Patriots best win came over Old Dominion, but they have some good losses against Villanova, Georgia Tech, Dayton and Northeastern. Good coaching matchup in this one with Jim Larranaga battling Bobby Cremins.

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Friday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 10 Purdue 60, No. 16 Wisconsin 57
Keaton Nankivil did his best to steal this one for Wisconsin, but Purdue persevered in the end, pulling out a narrow victory when it looked like they were on their way to an easy win. Nankivil went for a career high 25, including a ridiculous 7-of-8 from deep, but it was spoiled when Trevon Hughes missed to go-ahead basket with six seconds to go. The Boilermakers’ veterans stepped up after blowing an eight point lead in the final minutes. E’Twaun Moore’s bucket with 25 seconds to go turned out to be the winning basket. Both teams are now tied in the loss column in the Big Ten standings.

No. 22 Georgia Tech 79, Wake Forest 58 
The really good Yellow Jackets team showed up in full force Thursday, thoroughly out-playing Wake on their way to an easy victory. Knocking down shots, rebounding, distributing and defending; Georgia Tech did it all. “I’m not sure we can play much better,” Tech coach Paul Hewitt said after the game. Neither can Wake. Georgia Tech avoided dropping below .500 in ACC play.

Links

Pittsburgh avoided its third straight loss, dropping pesky St. John’s [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]

Virginia Tech, with a dramatic overtime win against Virginia, will definitely be dancing this March. [Roanoke Times]

Gonzaga rallied from a second half double-digit deficit on the road against Santa Clara. [Spokesman Review]

And Siena now owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 12. [AP]

And plenty of rankings…

Luke Winn’s always thorough rankings has Syracuse as his top team. [SI.com]

ESPN’s has Kansas atop theirs. [ESPN.com]

Josh Herwitt’s rankings features Kansas at 1, Villanova at 2. [Foxsports.com]

The Dagger takes a look at the POY race between Evan Turner and John Wall. [Yahoo.com]

Luke Harangody is on the verge of breaking a number of Notre Dame and Big East records over the next few months. [AP]

Think Seattle‘s four-man lineup the other night hasn’t happened before? Indiana State‘s had it worse – a lot worse. [Basketball Prospectus]

Gary Parish checks in with a “polls do matter” column now that it’s almost February. [CBSsports.com]

 And there was a big Twitter riff between NY Times’ Pete Thamel and SI’s Pablo S. Torre over a recent SI piece Torre wrote regarding Harvard. [SB Nation]

Tonight’s Must See Games

It’s Friday in college basketball, which means it’s your one night off for the week. The Weekend Primer, previewing Saturday’s and Sunday’s biggest games, will be coming your way later on today. Be on the lookout for the huge Ivy League matchup.