The Double Bonus

For that one fleeting second you thought you were about to witness the improbable. Again.

In this 2010 NCAA tournament, where improbable replaced convention as the norm, Gordon Hayward’s 40-foot heave with time expiring was supposed to go in.

Butler was supposed to complete a thrilling victory, complete its amazing mid-major run to a national title that its kind isn’t supposed to be able to compete for.

The storybook ending was playing our before out eyes. Improbably.

But a funny thing happened just before Hayward’s heave hit the backboard, then the front iron, before falling to the hardwood floor of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Convention finally revealed itself at the 59:59 mark of the national championship game, in the final second of the tournament that was unlike any other. Fittingly, Duke was crowned the 2010 national champion. Underdog Butler’s run had come to a thrilling yet heartbreaking end.

In one of the best national championship games we’ve seen in recent memory, No. 1 Duke survived No. 5 Butler, 61-59, to capture the school’s fourth national championship. In the process, coach Mike Krzyzewski joined the likes of John Wooden and Adolph Rupp as the only coaches in college basketball history to win that many titles.

It ended a long drought for Coach K whose previous Final Four trip was six years ago and last national title came in 2001. Yet again, Duke was the last team left standing on the first Monday in April. Here’s how the Blue Devils did it.

– One of Duke’s best defensive teams in the program’s storied history did a great job against Butler. The Bulldogs incurred another agonizing scoring drought in the game’s waning minutes and finished the evening shooting just 34.5 percent from the field. The Blue Devils forced Butler to take difficult shots all evening long and the Bulldogs missed a number of contested shots right around the bucket. Matt Howard was just 3 of 8 from the field, having layup after layup rim out in the first half while Hayward, Butler’s leading scorer who averaged 15.6 points per game this season, shot a measly 2 of 11 from the field – his worst performance of the season – to finish with just 12 points. Hayward did not hit a shot from beyond the arc and Kyle Singler was a big reason for that. He did a great job defending Hayward, hounding him with his length and forcing him to take tough shots at weird angles. Singler played great help defense, finishing with 2 blocks but he undoubtedly altered more than that. He had plenty of help from Brian Zoubek who was a big presence in the post when he wasn’t on the bench with foul trouble. After the game, Butler coach Brad Stevens spoke of Duke’s adjustment that saw the Blue Devils pack in the middle to cut off the lanes to the basket that Butler was taking advantage early on. The scoring opportunities became scarcer as the game wore on. That scoring drought that we saw from Butler against Michigan State in the national semifinal reared its ugly head again. They were able to overcome it against the Spartans Saturday. Not so Monday against Duke.

– Duke finally took control of the glass in the second half. After being badly out-rebounding in the first half – Butler had a 10-3 advantage on the offensive glass in the first half – the Blue Devils reestablished their presence underneath after halftime. Duke finished with 36-32 rebounding edge and narrowed the offensive rebounding gap to 12-11. The extra opportunities Duke got from the rebounds did two things: It gave them added chances to score, which they capitalized on, and secondly, it allowed them to run a lot of time off the clock, giving Butler significantly fewer possessions in the game’s final five minutes. And when you’re already having trouble putting the ball in the basket, having fewer chances to do it magnifies the problem.

– Butler played its typical excellent defense but the Bulldogs did not hold an opponent to under 60 points for the first time since their regular season finale. Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Singler – Duke’s big three scorers – were not frustrated offensively to the level that many of Butler’s other NCAA tournament opponents were. Scheyer finished with 15 while Smith had 13. Singler, who was named the tournament MOP, had a game-high 19. Butler did not make it easy on Duke, they had a tough time scoring for sure. But Duke made baskets when they needed it in the second half. The majority of their points came from inside the 3-point line Monday, a relative rarity for Duke this season. The Blue Devils made just 5 of 17 from downtown, but still shot 44 percent for the game, making 51 percent of their 2-point attempts.

Sick of the whole David vs. Goliath theme?

If you’re not already you surely will be by the time tonight’s national championship game tips-off. Duke has returned to its role of being the big, bad favorite that everyone loves to hate while mid-major Butler, playing in its hometown, is the underdog hoping to complete a storybook ending this evening.

Both have taken very different paths to get here yet feature many similarities. So who has the edge? Here’s are the keys to tonight’s game as the 2009-10 college basketball season officially comes to end.

Duke vs. Butler
Line: Duke -7.5, O/U 128
KenPom: Duke -7
Location: Indianapolis
TV: CBS, 9:21 pm

If You Like Defense: First thing’s first. When comparing these two you start with defense because they both excel on that end. Duke and Butler are among the nation’s best when it comes to the defensive efficiency ratings. Duke sits at No. 3 nationally in the ratings, giving up an average of 85.8 points per 100 possessions, while Butler comes in at No. 6, allowing 86.4 points per 100 possessions. Butler has the advantage when it comes to points allowed per game but can you chalk that up to the lesser conference competition they’ve played? To a degree, yes, but look at what Bulldogs have done in the tournament holding UTEP, Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State to 59 points or less. Butler just defends the hell out of teams in the half court. They don’t have a shot blocking presence. They don’t have a true lockdown guard on the perimeter. They just play great half court team defense and are phenomenal at forcing turnovers without the help of a full court press of any other kind of pressure defense. Considering Duke’s struggles at making 2-point baskets, that plays into the hands of Butler big time. That being said, Duke features its best defensive team arguably in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s long tenure with the Blue Devils. They’re longer and bigger than Butler and we saw the Bulldogs struggle mightily to establishe any kind of low post presence when Matt Howard wasn’t on the floor against Michigan State Saturday. And even when he was out there, Howard had to work like a dog to get any sort of decent shot off. Duke should rule the paint tonight. Butler will launch a lot of 3s.

Duke's Kyle Singler attempts to block the layup attempt from West Virginia's Joe Mazzulla in Saturday's national semifinal. (AP)

Size Does Matter: Duke will have a decided height-advantage underneath and Howard, he of the mild concussion suffered Saturday in the win over Michigan State, is actually questionable for the game. No way he doesn’t play but he will have a tall order trying to box out Brian Zoubek. As we’ve said for the past several days, Duke is a excellent offensive rebounding team and they’re going to get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight unless Butler somehow is able to keep Duke from crashing the boards. Between Zoubek, Kyle Singler and the Plumlee brothers, Butler does not have the bodies to matchup with Duke. Expect plenty of passes to the perimeter tonight off Duke misses. And just like they did against West Virginia, expect the Blue Devils to bury a number of those second chance 3s.

Get Low: Butler wants this game to be like the one we saw against Michigan State. Slow, methodical, plodding and hopefully no more than 110 total points scored. That’s the way Butler wins games. They can’t get into a shootout with Duke because it doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. Now it’s not like Duke is a run-and-gun type of team either but it certainly has more offensive weapons at its disposal than Butler. While I think the matchup on the front line and Duke’s dominance on the boards will be most telling, the second most telling matchup of the game will be the job Butler does on Duke’s guards, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored will have their hands full this evening chasing around those two. Scheyer and Smith have combined to score 91 points in the Blue Devils’ last two games. But we’ve seen Mack, Nored and the rest of the Bulldogs do a pretty good job of holding down some of the tournament’s best offensive guards like Andy Rautins, Jacob Pullen and Korie Lucious. None of them had good games against Butler – just like their teams.

Star Power: Gordon Hayward’s going to have to take Butler on his back in this one. On the big stage, Butler’s best player will need to shine brightest for the Bulldogs to keep this one close and have a chance to steal it in the final minutes. The best players are supposed to play their best in the biggest games. And not only is Hayward Butler’s best player, but he’s probably be the best player on the court tonight. All you have to do is look at the NBA Draft projections. Hayward’s considered to be a first-round pick should he leave school early. No Duke player is projected to be selected this June.

Butler coach Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs have won 25 straight games. (AP)

The Bench: It’s Coach K vs. baby-faced Brad Stevens. Krzyzewski is going for his fourth national title tonight while Stevens is just in his third year of being the head coach at Butler. Clearly the advantage is in Krzyzewski’s favor. In fact, it’s not even a competition. But Stevens has been getting a lot of pub for his cool, calm demeanor. It’s gotten Butler this far and the coach has shown no signs of panic. No reason to think tonight will be any different. One other subplot. Could this be Krzyzewski’s last game coaching the Blue Devils?

Prediction: Duke 70, Butler 61. As much as I want to see the Bulldogs win – for the wonderful story it would be and for the fact that I predicted Duke would never get to the Final Four months ago, then repeatedly writing how they would be bounced early in the tournament once the brackets were released, setting me up for what could be plenty of ridicule – I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Duke’s got plenty of momentum. All the key players are seemingly at the top of their game right now. They have a huge size advantage and one of the all-time greats calling the shots. I never thought I’d be writing this – this is not a great Duke team by any stretch of the imagination – but your 2010 national champion will be the Blue Devils. The haters will be out in full force tonight.

Duke picked a pretty good time to play its best game of the season.

Behind a scintillating offensive performance, Duke crushed West Virginia Saturday night, 78-57, in the second national semifinal game. The Blue Devils earned a trip to their first national championship game since 2001 where the story of the 2010 tournament, Butler, awaits Monday evening. Here’s how the Blue Devils did it.

– Duke just couldn’t be stopped from behind the arc. The Blue Devils knocked down 13 of their 25 attempts from 3. They did what they do best: Hit the deep shot. The combination of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith couldn’t be stopped by West Virginia’s defense. The trio hit 12 of the team’s 13 3s, Scheyer himself knocked down 5, finishing with a game-high 23 points. Singler went for 21 while Smith added 19. Comically, the contributions of those three was all the scoring Duke needed. West Virginia just had no answer for Duke defensively. The Blue Devils scored 16 2-point field goals, more than half of their game total. That’s worth nothing because most of Duke’s scoring comes from behind the arc – they’re not a great 2-point field goal scoring team. The efficiency ratings bore that out this season. But it didn’t matter Saturday. The Blue Devils did just about everything right offensively. Duke’s 78 points were the fourth most allowed by the Mountaineers this season.

– Duke killed West Virginia on the offensive boards. While the margin doesn’t reveal that the Blue Devils had some absurd edge on the offensive glass (11-9 in favor of Duke), it only seemed that way. You’d have to dig a little deeper in the box score to realize how badly the Blue Devils abused the Mountaineers underneath. Duke finished with a 19-7 advantage in second chance points, a 12-0 difference in the first half. We knew coming into this one that Duke was a very good offensive rebounding team and boy did it show Saturday.

– West Virginia was pretty brutal offensively. The Mountaineers just couldn’t get much going as Da’Sean Butler failed to be a big factor in the first half before going down with what appeared to be a serious knee injury late in the second half. Butler, West Virginia’s leading scorer this season, finished with just 10 points while Wellington Smith and Devin Ebanks went for 12 and 11, respectively. Duke’s defense held West Virginia to just 41 percent shooting from the field and the hot hands that carried them over Kentucky last week in the Elite Eight were nowhere to be found Saturday. West Virginia hit just 5 3-pointers. And considering their offense is predicated on grinding games out and executing on the half court, once the Mountaineers found themselves in a 10-point hole you knew it was going to be very difficult for them to climb back. They needed this to be a close game all the way and hopefully steal it at the end. Duke features one of the best defenses in school history and while West Virginia pulled off more than a few comebacks from big deficits this season, they weren’t going to do it against what statistically has been one of the premier defensive units in the country this season.

The story lives for another two days.

Butler survived Saturday’s first national semifinal, 52-50, sending Michigan State home in a very tight, hard-nosed defensive game. The “mid-major” playing mere miles from its campus, making for one of the fuzziest story lines the Final Four has seen in years, continued its improbable run toward the title. Here’s how the Bulldogs pulled off the win and moved onto Monday night’s national championship game.

– Despite having only one field goal in the final 12:38, Butler won this game the same way they’ve won their previous 24 games this year. With defense. Michigan State struggled to get good looks around the basket all night long for two reasons: Butler has a great half court defense and the Bulldogs forced Michigan State to make a ton of mistakes. It was a formula that led to the Spartans finishing with their second lowest point total of the season.

Michigan State just couldn’t hang onto the ball. The Bulldogs, despite not featuring a pressure defense that hounds you full court, has an incredible knack for forcing teams to make mistakes in the half court set and that was on display Saturday. Michigan State turned it over 16 times while Butler finished with just 8 giving the Bulldogs a ridiculous 20-2 points off turnovers advantage.

Not having Kalin Lucas at point guard finally caught up with the Spartans and coach Tom Izzo admitted as much after the game. The Michigan State point guard, who was sidelined with a torn Achilles’ Tendon, was dearly missed as Korie Lucious and Durrell Summers combined for seven turnovers. Lucious had five on his own.

– While Butler hits its free throws, Michigan State killed itself at the stripe. The Spartans came into the game shooting just 68.8 percent from the line so they weren’t a great free throwing shooting team to begin with. But boy did it show at the worst possible time. State was brutal in the second half, missing 6 of its 11 attempts, finishing the game making just 10 of 18. Butler, meanwhile, found itself in the bonus before the midway point of the second half and made the most of its time on the line; Butler was 17 of 24. Good thing considering the Bulldogs shot just 30.6 percent from the field.

– Michigan State did not do a good enough job of exploiting its significant size advantage in the front court. Raymar Morgan finished with a paltry 4 points. So did Delvon Roe. You can chalk up the lack of production to foul trouble. It seemed like half of the Spartans rotation had at least three fouls midway through the second half. It took away some of their aggressiveness on the offensive end and thankfully it didn’t kill them on the defensive end because Butler was so woeful scoring in the second half. And I think some of the calls by the officials, that seemed to favor Butler, got into the head of the Spartans. Surprisingly, Michigan State only held a slight rebounding edge, 34-30. Look, when Matt Howard, all 6-foot-8 and 230 pound is your big threat underneath as is the case with Butler, you are the very definition of undersized. Michigan State should have finished with a much bigger advantage on the glass.

– Gordon Hayward was great. The sophomore finished with 19 points and 9 rebounds and was the only one doing any kind of scoring for Butler in the first half. In the second half, it was his defense and rebounding that saved the day when the Bulldogs couldn’t buy a bucket.

Duke PG Jon Scheyer. (AP)

The Blue Devils are back.

After a five year hiatus that did not see them advance past the Sweet 16, Duke is in the Final Four and again considered the favorite to win it all. Coach K, his defense and three dynamic scorers are the driving force behind the Blue Devils return to what used to feel like a birth right for the Cameron Crazies.

Are the stars aligned for a fourth Blue Devils national title. Here’s a closer look at Duke.

Coach: Mike Krzyzewski (20th year)
Record: 33-5, 13-3 ACC
Final Fours: 15 (1963, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2010), 3 championships (1991, 1992, 2001)
Iconic Coach K : Krzyzewski is 75-22 in the NCAA tournament, the second highest winning percentage among coaches all-time.

How They Got Here

Duke shared the regular season ACC title with Maryland and won the conference tournament championship, earning the No. 1 seed in the South Regional.

First Round: No. 16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff got itself one NCAA tournament victory this year, having won the play-in game three days before facing Duke. The Blue Devils made sure the Golden Lions didn’t come close to a second thanks to the 73-44 dismantling they unloaded on the SWAC champs.

Second Round: Duke’s defense stifled No. 8 Cal, holding the Bears to only 39 percent shooting from the field, as the Blue Devils cruised to an easy 68-53 victory. Duke’s size was too much for the vertically-challenged Bears to overcome. Nolan Smith led the way with 20 points.

Sweet 16: In a grinding game that was ugly to watch, Duke outlasted No. 4 Purdue, 70-57, to move onto the South Regional final. The Blue Devils did it with defense and the combo of Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler. The two scorers poured in 18 and 24, respectively, while Purdue struggled to come up with any answer for Duke’s superior size underneath. The two teams combined for just 47 points in the first half assuring this game’s place amongst the round of 16′s all-time ugliest contests.

Elite Eight: A career-high 29 points from Smith helped carry the Blue Devils into the Final Four after they trailed No. 3 Baylor late into the second half. The Bears carried a three point lead into halftime and led by just as many with under four minutes to play but couldn’t hold on in the end, falling to Duke, 78-71. Thanks to Smith, some clutch 3-pointers by Scheyer and 17 offensive rebounds in the second half, Duke advanced to Indianapolis, removing the 800-pound guerrilla that had been sitting on the collective backs of Coach K and his players since 2004.

Why They Can Win It All

Offensively speaking, the Blue Devils should be considered the best team of the Final Four participants. Duke has big time scorers in Scheyer and Singler who can knock down the three with regularity while Smith can do a little bit of it all and is the most athletic of the three. Scheyer, Singler and Smith combined average a little over 52 points per game – about 2/3 of the team’s average points per game. And while they may not be a great rebounding team, as we pointed out yesterday, Ken Pomeroy says the Blue Devils are a very good offensive rebounding team – which we clearly saw against Baylor. The Blue Devils will need to capitalize on second chance opportunities against a very good defensive team in West Virginia, their opponent for Saturday’s second national semifinal game. But as good as West Virginia is defensively, the Blue Devils are right there with them.  Pomeroy’s ratings pin the Blue Devils as the nation’s third most efficient defense while West Virginia’s comes in at No. 10. Sometimes Pomeroy’s numbers can be a little misleading – he’s admitted that Duke is probably overrated when it comes to his ratings this year – but it goes to show you how tough it is to score against this Blue Devils team. They have size underneath with Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers and just seem to do a really good job of hounding opponents. They’re good at turning teams over and are allowing opponents to shoot just 27 percent from 3-point range. While this definitely is not Coach K’s most staked team during his long tenure, this relatively “weak” Final Four field puts Duke in prime position to capture another title. It’s pretty obvious to see why they’re the favorite. They have a coach who has been to the Final Four more than any other active coach and pedigree that gives them added swagger.

Why They Won’t

I’ve gone on record as saying this Duke team wouldn’t reach the Final Four and that obviously did not come to fruition. I’ve been adamant all season long that the Blue Devils aren’t very athletic and at some point would get exposed in the tournament for that. Clearly the matchups benefited Duke up until the Baylor game. The Bears were a team built to beat the Blue Devils with its size, athleticism in the backcourt and 2-3 zone defense. The Blue Devils managed to survive and advance but they are a team that does not hit a very high percentage of their 2-point attempts. In fact, Pomeroy says they get less than 50 percent of their points from 2-point attempts, an unusually low number for such a good team. And not a characteristic you generally associate with a champion. They’re overly reliant on the 3-point shot which at some point a team will die by – see Kentucky in the Elite Eight. I still think Duke can be bodied around and physically handled. None of the remaining teams are that big, bruising and physically more imposing than the Blue Devils, but West Virginia certainly comes closest to fitting that category.

Injured PG Truck Bryant gets a lecture from head coach Bob Huggins back in December. (AP)

There’s no Cinderella storyline with these guys. No homecoming angle. America’s team they certainly are not.

And that’s the way West Virginia likes it.

With a style that doesn’t exactly resonate with the masses and a coach whose nickname – “Huggy Bear” – is as ironic as it gets, the Mountaineers are crashing the Final Four and fitting the role of villain probably better than any of the other three semifinalists.

But whatever label you want to toss on West Virginia doesn’t matter because the Mountaineers are only interested in flying back to Morgantown with the one that matters: Champion.

Do the Mountaineers have what it takes to win their first national title? Here’s a closer look at West Virginia.

Coach: Bob Huggins (3rd year)
Record: 31-6, 13-5 Big East
Final Fours: 2 (1959, 2010)
Mr. Clutch: This season, leading scorer Da’Sean Butler has nailed six game-winning shots in the final seconds.

How They Got Here

West Virgina finished in the three-way tie for second in the Big East regular season standings and then went on to capture the conference tournament championship, earning an automatic berth into the NCAA tournament. The Mountaineers were the No. 2 seed in the East Regional.

First Round: West Virginia missed its first 11 shots from the field and made everyone take notice of their early deficit to No. 15 Morgan State. But it didn’t last very long. The Mountaineers eventually started to make some baskets and ended up blitzing the Bears, 77-50.

Second Round: A big first half from Butler paced West Virginia to a 68-59 victory over No. 10 Missouri. Butler scored 19 of the Mountaineers’ 30 points in the first 20 minutes and finished with a game-high 28. The Tigers pressure defense didn’t deter West Virginia from leading the entire game or from holding Missouri to a measly 32.8 percent from the field.

Sweet 16: No. 11 Washington made things very interesting in the first half, taking a two point lead into the locker room, but the second half was a very different story. Too many Washington turnovers and too much West Virginia led to an easy 69-56 victory for the Mountaineers. Washington’s fate was sealed when they started the second half missing 11 of its first 14 attempts from the field. West Virginia advanced to its second regional final in five years.

Elite Eight: West Virginia gave us a first half we may never see again, hitting all eight of their 3-point attempts while failing to make a single shot inside the line. But the hot shooting gave the Mountaineers the lead at half against No. 1 Kentucky in the East Regional final and thanks to its stubborn insistence at launching 3s, coupled with West Virginia’s defense in the second half, the mighty Wildcats went down in the Carrier Dome, 73-66. Joe Mazzula had the game of his life, in his first start of the season, scoring a career-high 17 points in leading the Mountaineers back to the Final Four.

Why They Can Win It All

West Virginia might be the most talented team in the Final Four. From the top of its roster on down, you’d be hard pressed to top what West Virginia is bringing to Indianapolis. They’re tall, athletic and deep. While they may not have prolific scorers like Duke they have plenty of guys who give them more than enough offensive production. The Mountaineers feature three who average double figures – Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks – and have a solid bench they can rely on. Butler is the go-to guy and presents a very difficult matchup at 6-foot-7 with the ability to hit the outside shot. The Mountaineers aren’t the greatest 3-point shooting team but we know they’re more than capable of knocking down the outside shot as evidenced by what we saw against Kentucky. Where the Mountaineers really excel is on the defensive end. West Virginia can present a number of different looks and the zone it featured against Kentucky was very effective. For its matchup against Duke Saturday evening in the second national semifinal, Huggins will probably mix up his defenses a little bit considering Duke does not feature the caliber of slashers Kentucky did. West Virginia finished among the nation’s top 10 in rebounding margin but Ken Pomeroy over at Basketball Prospectus doesn’t think you should get fooled into thinking the Mountaineers are that great at crashing the boards – at least the defensive boards. Pomeroy argues that, just like Duke, West Virginia is a superior offensive rebounding team – which can sometimes fly under the radar – meaning they get a lot of second-chance opportunities. And when you capitalize as effectively on those extra opportunities as the Mountaineers do then it makes them very difficult to beat. And in crunch time, you can generally count on West Virginia to close things out. The Mountaineers are hitting a respectable 70.3 percent from the free throw line and showed their closing abilities last week when they sealed the deal against Kentucky from the line.

Why The Won’t

West Virginia is not a great shooting team, especially from beyond the arc, and sometimes they can rely too much on the outside shot. With their relatively slow pace of play it’s not easy for the Mountaineers to overcome a sustained cold spell from the field against good teams so if they’re not converting those second chance opportunities then they’re dead. West Virginia is prone to making mistakes – they turned it over 23 times against Washington in the Sweet 16. And while that was an aberration so far in the tournament, the Mountaineers are liable to give it up at almost any moment. With a lack of true ball handlers thanks to PG Truck Bryant’s fractured foot – which will likely keep him out of action again this weekend – things can get sloppy in the backcourt when Mazzula isn’t the one handling it. Butler and Ebanks can serve as point guard for brief stretches, but in the long run the two forwards are liabilities dribbling around the perimeter. And speaking of Mazzula, you can’t expect a similar performance out of him following the Kentucky game. The oft-injured backup point guard was pressed into duty and was phenomenal. But his limited offensive game – West Virginia does not want him firing from outside – hampers the Mountaineers. West Virginia did an excellent job defending Kentucky but Duke is a better 3-point shooting team than the Wildcats. Should the Mountaineers play zone against the Blue Devils, West Virginia better hope Duke isn’t feeling it from beyond and grabbing the misses because as good of an offensive rebounding team as West Virginia is, Duke’s right there with them.

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo and PG Korie Lucious. (AP)

Michigan State shouldn’t be in the Final Four.

Not with the kind of topsy-turvy regular season it had. Not with the draw it received when the brackets came out. Not with all the injuries it has been plagued with.

The math just doesn’t seem to add up. Such a flawed team isn’t supposed to shine so brightly so late in the season. But Tom Izzo has defied convention before. And the man who simply loves March has his team back in territory few know as well as he.

Do the Spartans have what it takes to win a third national title, a second for Izzo? Here’s a closer look at Michigan State.

Coach: Tom Izzo (15th season)
Record: 28-8, 14-4 Big Ten
Final Fours: 8 (1957, 1979, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2010), 2 championships (1979, 2000)
Outstanding Company: This is Michigan State’s sixth Final Four appearance in the last 12 years. Only Duke and North Carolina have been to as many Final Fours in the same time frame.

How They Got There

Michigan State received an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament as the No. 5 seed in the Midwest Regional after finishing in a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten during the regular season. The Spartans lost in the first round of the conference tournament.

First Round: The heavily favored Spartans got a lot more than they bargained for against No. 12 New Mexico State. With a career-high 25 points from Kalin Lucas, the Spartans prevailed, 70-67, in a game that featured a rather controversial ending. New Mexico State’s Troy Gillenwater was called for a lane violation on a missed Raymar Morgan free throw with 18 seconds to go. With another shot at it, Morgan converted for the game’s final point, allowing the Spartans to survive and advance.

Second Round: One of the most memorable games of the tournament, Korie Lucious’ 3-pointer at the buzzer was the difference as Michigan State sent home No. 4 Maryland in devastating fashion, 85-83. The Terps trailed for basically the entire game, falling behind by as much as 16 points, before a frantic comeback actually gave them a lead with 6 seconds to go. Greivis Vasquez’s runner looked to be the game-winner before Lucious was able to rise and fire from the top of the arc and bury the jumper as time expired. It capped off a wild celebration that was later sobered by the news surrounding Lucas. The Spartans best player and starting point guard went down in the middle of the game with an ankle injury that was later revealed to be a torn Achilles’ tendon, ending his season.

Sweet 16: Fresh off its upset of No. 1 Kansas, Northern Iowa had become the darlings of the NCAA tournament. But the No. 9 Panthers couldn’t continue their magical run as Michigan State was able to grind out another win, 59-52. The Spartans did it with their defense and the backcourt play of Lucious and Durrell Summers as the combo combined for 29 points.

Elite Eight: No. 6 Tennessee was looking for its first Final Four berth but the Spartans outlasted the Vols thanks to some clutch free throw shooting in the game’s final seconds by Morgan. Michigan State led by as many as eight in the second half, but Tennessee clawed its way back to tie things in the game’s final minute. Morgan was fouled with less than 2 seconds to go and went to the line with a chance to put Michigan State back in the Final Four. He hit the first, purposely missed the second, and Tennessee’s mid-court prayer went unanswered. Wild celebration ensued as Izzo improved to 6-1 all-time in regional finals.

Why They Can Win It All

If you’ve watched Michigan State play at all since Izzo took over from his predecessor, Jud Heathcote, you know the Spartans are a defensive minded team. They win by grinding out games, by playing tough man-to-man defense, by out-rebounding opponents, and usually getting just enough offense to eek out a win. While it’s been nothing but close game after close game for Michigan State, surprisingly the Spartans are hitting 41 percent of their 3-pointers, as John Gasaway over at Basketball Prospectus has pointed out, meaning they’re not just getting it done with their defense this tournament. Not that they’ve changed who they are over the last four games but the stats are showing that the Spartans aren’t as “bad” of an offensive team as some might think. Or at least they’re playing above their offensive norm. The Big Ten stigma is a tough one to shake and  Summers and Morgan are doing their part having stepped up their games in the tournament, helping fill the void of Lucas’ 14.8 ppg. Summers has been the Spartans best offensive player during this run, scoring 20 ppg, almost double his regular season average. And he’s been on fire from beyond the arc, hitting 18 of his 30 3-point attempts; a ridiculous number for someone who only made 26 all season long. Morgan, meanwhile, has scored in double figures three of the four games. And if the inspired offensive play wasn’t enough to make you believe in Michigan State then  maybe Izzo is enough. The man is one of the premier coaches who makes these runs through March with talent that isn’t exactly rushing off to the NBA. No Spartan will be selected with a lottery pick this June, just like the previous three years, or even sniff it, for that matter. Yet look at how far they’ve come. When you count out Michigan State that’s when it seems like it’s at its best.

Why They Won’t

The fact Michigan State has gotten to a second straight Final Four is borderline ridiculous. With all the injuries, the suspensions, the up-and-down play during the regular season, for Izzo to rip off four straight wins in the NCAA tournament is a pretty remarkable feat. In the tournament, they’ve benefited from having avoided the big guns of the Midwest Regional as No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Georgetown were all laid to rest before potentially facing the Spartans. And against the “lesser” competition, Michigan State won those four games by a combined 13 points. Not exactly the kind of scoring margin a high level Final Four team usually features, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out Tuesday. The Journal went so far as to say the Spartans are the worst team to make the Final Four since 1985. I definitely wouldn’t say that about Michigan State, but with a lineup that’s pretty banged up and already missing its best player, the deck is definitely stacked against the Spartans. Sure Michigan State has been able to get by without Lucas for two games but Lucious still does not instill a ton of confidence in Spartans fans. He can be erratic and turnover prone, two qualities that should never describe a point guard. Teams have won titles without an All-American point guard at the helm. But what team has won it without their floor leader who just happened to also be their best player? I can’t think of one. And how much longer can the hot shooting continue, especially for Summers? When Michigan State meets Butler Saturday in the first national semifinal, baskets will not come easily as the Spartans will be facing one of the best half-court defenses in the nation, one that does an excellent job of creating turnovers. I don’t know about you, but of the four national semifinalists I have the hardest time seeing Michigan State cutting down the nets.

Butler's Gordon Hayward. (AP)

The comparisons to “Hoosiers” are inevitable but Butler isn’t your quintessential underdog. The team that plays its home games in the same gym where the immortal basketball movie’s final scenes were filmed has made what might best be described as a rather unexpected run to the Final Four.

Just don’t get fooled into thinking Butler doesn’t belong there.

The mid-major that at this point should cease to be called a mid-major is still in the running for a national championship when just about everybody expected them to be back hitting the books this week, and not still crashing the boards. Do the Bulldogs have what it takes to cut down the Lucas Oil Stadium nets? Here’s a closer look at the first team to punch its Final Four ticket: Butler.

Coach: Brad Stevens (3rd year)
Record: 32-4, 18-0 Horizon
Final Fours: 1 (2010)
Streaking: Butler owns the nation’s longest winning streak that currently stands at 24.

How They Got There

Butler, the Horizon League regular season and conference tournament champions, entered the NCAA tournament as the No. 5 seed in the West Regional.

First Round: Behind a second half surge, and a career-high 25 points from Shelvin Mack, the Bulldogs took out No. 12 UTEP, 77-59. Butler trailed by five at halftime, but Mack’s hot shooting – he knocked down six 3-pointers in the second half – was a backbreaker for the Miners as Butler’s disciplined offense frustrated and eventually wore down the UTEP defense.

Second Round: No. 13 Murray State, fresh off its upset of No. 4 Vanderbilt, gave Butler all it could handle, but the Bulldogs managed to survive with a 54-52 victory thanks to Gordon Hayward’s defense as the clock ran out. Hayward deflected Isaiah Canaan’s desperate pass attempt as the Racers were looking for a second straight buzzer-beating upset.

Sweet 16: Butler pulled off the surprising 63-59 upset of No. 1 Syracuse, persevering when just about everyone expected them to fold. The Bulldogs got off to a great start but watched Syracuse reclaim the lead mid-way through the second half. And for a few fleeting moments, it looked like the Orange were ready to run away with the game. But Butler stood its ground, allowing just one Syracuse field goal over the game’s final 5:23 to advance. They did it with defense.

Elite Eight: Playing in the school’s first ever regional final, the Bulldogs faced a drained Kansas State team and once again got out to a great start, carrying a double digit lead well into the second half. And just like the Sweet 16, Butler watched Kansas State take the lead late only to take it right back and walk away with a 63-56 victory to advance to the Final Four which just happens to be – if you haven’t heard already – in the Bulldogs hometown of Indianapolis. Hayward once again led the way with 22 points.

Why They Can Win It All

Butler isn’t some cushy mid-major that’s only good for stories and TV features. The Bulldogs can play and they do it with a very disciplined offensive style and a defense that’s given everyone problems this season. They are definitely a better team than the George Mason squad that shocked everyone by making the Final Four in 2006. It’s not even close. Especially on the defensive end. Allowing just 59.6 point per game, the Bulldogs are among the top 10 teams in the nation in scoring defense. Both Syracuse and Kansas State went through prolonged scoring droughts and considering how talented both of those teams are offensively, that’s saying something. In fact, Butler has held teams below 60 points in seven straight games and 13 of their last 14. Allowing opponents to connect on just 31.7 percent of their 3-point attempts has certainly helped that cause. And offensively, Butler has a big time player in Hayward who could be the first player selected in this June’s NBA Draft – should be decide to leave school early – of all the players participating in the Final Four. Hayward’s the perfect college swingman who isn’t afraid to drive to the basket or pull up from outside. He can score a handful of different ways. Don’t let his boyish looks and lanky frame fool you. He’s a really good player, the kind that can carry a team. But he’s got a few good role players to help him out like Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard who are accomplished scorers on their own. In all, four Bulldogs average double figures. And in the grand scheme of things, let’s face it, this isn’t the most stacked Final Four we’ve ever seen. There’s no North Carolina circa 2009 this year. No UConn circa 2004. The Final Four is wide open. There’s no reason Butler can’t win two more games to complete the improbable run.

Why They Won’t

The pressure. With Butler playing a mere five miles from campus, the amount of distractions they’re going to face this week will be double – if not triple – that of the other three teams. They’ll say all the right things in the press conferences about strictly focusing on Saturday’s national semifinal game with Michigan State, but how can they not get caught up in all the hoopla surrounding this run? Also, Butler is definitely not the biggest team. They’ll be facing a Spartans team that led the nation in rebounding margin this year and State will definitely body the Bulldogs. Butler is not a very deep team and if you can somehow get Hayward off the court it’s a very different squad. And we talk about talent all the time, but reality is other than Hayward Butler does not feature another elite player. They have some good college players but certainly not to the caliber of what Duke or West Virginia features. Brad Stevens is coaching in uncharted territory for him and his players have never been on a bigger stage. Experience counts for a lot as it gets later and later in the tournament. The Final Four has a tendency to make some players and coaches do stupid things.