The Double Bonus

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Friday.

Last Night’s Action

Connecticut 84, No. 8 Kentucky 67
The underdog Huskies relished their role for a second straight night and dumped another top 10 team to take the Maui Invitational title. And just like in its win over Michigan State Tuesday, Kemba Walker led the way for UConn, scoring 29 and taking tournament MVP honors. But Walker had plenty of help as the Huskies thoroughly out-classed Kentucky, playing tough-nosed defense in the first half, pounding the boards, hitting shots from the outside and looking a lot more polished than their relative inexperience suggested coming into this week. While Walker just missed a fourth-straight game of scoring 30 points or more, Jay Bilas was 100 percent right in his assessment on the ESPN telecast: no one has been better this season than Walker. With wins over Michigan State and Kentucky, the Huskies picked up two gigantic wins for their NCAA Tournament resume and will find themselves in the Top 25 come Monday.

No. 2 Michigan State 76, No. 13 Washington 71
The Spartans rallied for a win after a turnover filled first half, salvaging their trip to Maui. Kalin Lucas, surprise, was the catalyst for State, scoring 29 points, as the Spartans claimed third place in the Invitational. But it was Durrell Summers who hit the game’s most important shot, despite struggling all game long to find his stroke. There’s just something about these early season tournaments that makes the Spartans struggle. The AP had a great stat, relating that Michigan State hasn’t won a preseason tournament – like the Maui Invitational – in 13 years. But more importantly, they don’t seem to struggle when the calendar turns to March.

No. 7 Villanova 82, UCLA 70
The Bruins are just too young and the Wildcats are too explosive to be slowed down by a team that features six freshmen and no seniors. And despite struggling once the second half started and seeing a 15-point lead evaporate, Villanova took care of business Wednesday.  Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Malik Wayns were the Wildcats big-three, combining for 61 points, while big man Mouphtaou Yarou had a big game on the boards. The Wildcats will now face Tennessee Friday at Madison Square Garden in the NIT Tip-off championship game after the Vols escaped with a win against Virginia Commonwealth in the game before.

Links

Yeah, Oklahoma did lose to Division II Chaminade. [AP]

You need refs to play a college basketball game and apparently that was a bit of an issue for Tennessee Tech [The Dagger]

Gary Parrish writes about why you shouldn’t sleep on the Old Spice Classic that gets underway today. So, yes, there’s college basketball on Thanksgiving. [CBSSports.com]

A seven overtime game in Division III. Some of the stats from this game are hilarious. [ESPN.com]

A poor start by the Missouri Valley Conference’s two top teams to start the season does not bode well for the league’s tournament hopes. [Bracketville]

Seth Davis says Duke’s Kyrie Irving is better than advertised. [SI.com]

And finally, Happy Thanksgiving.

A quick look at what’s going on and what to look out for Wednesday.

All hail Duke. What else can you say after last night’s performance in which the No. 1 Blue Devils handily beat No. 4 Kansas State, 82-68? Thanks to the stellar play of guards Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving, Duke breezed past the Wildcats in the CBE Classic title game. It also marked Coach K’s 800th career victory with the school.

But Basketball Prospectus’ John Gasaway kind of rains on the early season Duke parade and closely examines how they’ve done it without big production from Kyle Singler. That being said, he’s pretty impressed with what Irving has done and his statistical analysis certainly backs it up.

Now, onto other matters…

Links

Some good quotes from around the nation. [Ballin' Is A Habit]

Rick Barnes got his 500th career win last night. [Statesman]

Mike DeCourcy takes a look around the country and tells Wichita State not to sweat it’s disappointing Maui Invitational performance. [The Sporting News]

Luke Winn checks in on some of the unsung seniors around the country, including Brad Wannamaker. [SI.com]

Scoring margin matters. Here’s why. [SB Nation]

And if you haven’t seen it yet, Michael Jordan’s kid can get up. [The Dagger]

Tonight’s Must See Games

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Washington
Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: Washington -1
KenPom: Washington -1
TV: 5 pm, ESPN2
It’s the third place game of the Maui Invitational and I guarantee you the Spartans did not expect themselves to be playing in this one. But last night’s upset at the hands of UConn means Michigan State has to take on the Huskies a second straight night, only difference of course is tonight’s version hails from Seattle. The Spartans turned the ball over and shot a paltry 40 percent from the field against UConn and if they have a repeat performance tonight Washington will run State right out of the gym. Plus, Washington is showing itself to be a very good defensive team, allowing teams to shoot just 38 percent from the field. So with Michigan State’s pedigree, I think we can easily expect a good defensive battle in this one.

No. 7 Villanova vs. UCLA
Location: Madison Square Garden
Line: Villanova -4
KenPom: Villanova -4
TV: 9 pm, ESPN2
Villanova has been ripping through it’s early season opponents, winning by an average of 28.5 points per. But it’s come against mid-major pushovers so it’s about time the Wildcats get a sterner test tonight against the Bruins. The Garden will feature plenty of Philly fans which will make this a quasi-home game for the Wildcats, making things that much harder for the very young Bruins. UCLA has no seniors on its roster and six freshmen. Bruins have proven to be a good defensive team so far through three games. But then again, it’s come against the same class of mid-major pushovers the Villanova has destroyed, albeit West Coast versions.

No. 8 Kentucky vs. Connecticut
Location Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: Kentucky -5.5
KenPom: Kentucky -6
TV: 10 pm, ESPN
Thirty for a fourth straight game for Kemba Walker? That’s probably what it’s going to take for the Huskies to capture the Maui Invitational title when they face the equally young, but more highly touted and talented Kentucky Wildcats. UConn will be looking to win it’s second Maui Invitational after it took the 2005 incarnation and they’re going to have to do it against a Kentucky team that convincingly beat a good defensive team in Washington last night despite shooting just 39 percent from the field. Best subplot in this game is the bristling hatred between Jim Calhoun and John Calipari. There’s no love lost between these two.

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Tuesday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 1 Duke got its first real test of the season against Marquette as the Golden Eagles made things closer than many expected. Mason Plumlee was the big star for the Blue Devils Monday, scoring 18 of his 25 points in the second half to lead Duke to the 82-77 win in the first CBE Classic semifinal.

No. 4 Kansas State easily handled No. 22 Gonzaga in the other semifinal of the CBE Classic setting up the biggest  matchup of the young season tonight against big, bad Duke.

No. 2 Michigan State almost did the unthinkable: lose to Division II Chaminade. That was before reality set in for the Silveswoards who actually led this game with just over 14 minutes remaining. Michigan State eventually wore down the local school, advancing in the Maui Invitational.

Links

LaceDarius Dunn returned to the Baylor lineup last night and poured in 24 points in a Bears win. [Star Telegram]

The one-man UConn wrecking crew known as Kemba Walker was at it again yesterday. [Courant]

And No. 13 Washington obliterated Virginia in the day’s final Maui Invitational game. [AP]

The Dagger continues to rave over the recruiting job Tom Crean is doing at Indiana. [Yahoo]

Minnesota a legitimate threat in the Big Ten? [College Hoops Journal]

A Q&A with Kansas State head coach Frank Martin. [Yahoo]

Ken Pomeroy with his latest blog post,  “What win distribution can do for you.” [Kepom.com]

Tonight’s Must See Games

No. 2 Michigan State vs. Connecticut
Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: Michigan State -5.5
KenPom: Michigan State -5
TV: 7 pm, ESPN
Quite simply all eyes will be on the point guards. Two of the best in the country square off when Kalin Lucas and the above-mentioned Kemba Walker take to the court. The Spartans have the big edge for a number of reasons, namely their superior experience. The Huskies showed their youth yesterday against a veteran Wichita State team. How do you think they’re going to fair against a Michigan State team that’s just as experienced and features better talent than the Shockers?

No. 22 Gonzaga vs. Marquette
Location: Sprint Center, Kansas City
Line: Marquette -1.5
KenPom: Marquette -1
TV: 7:45 pm, ESPNU
We know Marquette can play some defense but they showed that they can score a little too last night against the Blue Devils. The Zags, on the other hand, aren’t playing great basketball and really need a win here having lost two in a row.

No. 13 Washington vs. No. 8 Kentucky
Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: Washington -2.5
KenPom: Washington -1
TV: 9 pm, ESPN
First big test for the Huskies this season against a young, albeit talented John Calipari squad. Washington’s Isaiah Thomas will square off against Kentucky’s vaunted freshman, Terrence Jones, who Huskies fans will be rooting hard against. You might remember that Jones originally committed to play at Washington before backing out and deciding to head to Lexington. Jones is coming off a monster game in the the Wildcats victory over Oklahoma Monday where he had 29 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks. Hopefully he saved something for the Huskies.

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Kansas State
Location: Sprint Center, Kansas City
Line: Duke -5.5
KenPom: Duke -7
TV: 10 pm, ESPN2
Huge matchup that we could very see again come March which is easily the biggest of the young season. Two supremely talented teams which huge expectations. I don’t really need to build this one up. It’s a big game. Don’t miss it.

A quick look at what went on yesterday and what to look out for Friday.

Yesterday’s Action

No. 5 Pittsburgh 79, Maryland 70
I had a friend who made his way to the Garden last night to take in the first game of the 2K Sports Classic. I told him to watch out for the Panthers’ Brad Wanamaker. Turns out I should have told him to look out for Talib Zanna. The Pitt freshman had 14 and 12 as the Panthers held off the Terps while Wanamaker and Ashton Gibbs, Pitt’s go to scorers, did not have it going on Thursday. But the Panthers were able to rely on the big man to pick up the slack and comfortably pull this one out after Maryland’s big 14-2 run made it a one-point game at the 13:20 mark. Pitt badly out-rebounded the Terps – no surprise there – while the two teams clanked three after three. The two combined to go 5-of-24 from beyond the arc.

Texas 90, No. 13 Illinois 84, OT
I think a lot of people were expecting more out of Illinois’ last night but the Longhorns played a physical brand of basketball that the Illini just weren’t that comfortable with. Demetri McCarney, on the other hand, displayed his vast talents for plenty of NBA scouts as he went for 22 points, eight assists and five boards. The only problem was he didn’t get the kind of help he needed down the stretch and certainly not in overtime where Texas pretty much dominated.

Links

Hey, what do you know? Turns out North Carolina actually can score. [Raleigh News & Observer]

Minnesota had a pretty impressive win over a very good Western Kentucky team down in Puerto Rico. [Minnesota Star-Tribune]

Missouri had a little more trouble with Western Illinois than expected. For the first time since 1951 they won a game in which no one scored double digits. [AP]

John Gasaway names his Player of the Year a little on the early side, plus other Big East observations. [Basketball Prospectus]

Don’t sleep on the Mountain West this year, says Gary Parrish, it’s better than the Pac-10. [CBSSports.com]

Andy Katz with some news and notes from around the nation. [ESPN.com]

A thorough look at Duke‘s offense this season. Just how different is it from last year’s version? [Rush The Court]

The oft-injured Robbie Hummel might have an easier time coming back from surgery this time around. [Indy Star]

Apparently, adding three new teams to the NCAA Tournament isn’t necessarily going to make the selection process any easier. [AP]

Tonight’s Must See Games

Maryland vs. No. 13 Illinois
Line: N/A
TV: ESPN2, 5 pm
The 2K Classic will hold it’s consolation game this evening  at Madison Square Garden. It’s a quick turnaround for the Illini who will be on the floor just 17 hours after their overtime game with Texas ended well past midnight.

Texas vs. No. 5 Pittsburgh
Line: N/A
TV: ESPN2, 7 pm
Maybe this makes for a more interesting matchup than Pitt-Illinois because the Panthers are Longhorns appear ready to battle underneath the basket more so than the Illini would. And d0n’t expect the Panthers to struggle offensively like they did against Maryland. That’s not to say Texas won’t play defense rather Pitt is far too talented an offensive team to have a repeat performance of Thursday.

Only one Top 25 team hits the road as No. 11 Kentucky meets Portland while No. 20 Georgetown continues its march toward a Charleston Classic title by meeting Wofford. No. 7 Kansas hosts North Texas while Colgate visits No. 1 Duke.

The Naismith preseason watch list was released Tuesday and it features 50 names, 40 of which have almost no shot of winning the prestigious award that Ohio State‘s Evan Turner took home last year.

So who has a chance?

Well, for starters, let’s get rid of every one not from one of the six major conferences because – let’s face it – they have no shot of winning this. It’s just like the Heisman. If you don’t play for one of the big boys no one notices you enough. It’s a sad reality but reality nonetheless.

With that logic in mind we unfortunately have to eliminate some really great players like BYU‘s Jimmer Fredette. But thanks for playing.

So after step 1, that knocks the list down to 38. From that 38, we’ll eliminate players whose teams have almost no shot of playing any meaningful games in March. Goodbye to the likes of Washington’s State‘s Klay Thompson, Ole Miss‘ Chris Warren, Colorado‘s Alec Burks and Penn State‘s Talor Battle.

That whittles the list down to 34.

Next step is to get rid of the players starring on an above average team that has legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations heading into the season. They could overachieve and win a game or two in the tournament or sweat out Selection Sunday.

So that gets rid of the likes of Arizona‘s Derrick Williams, Seton Hall‘s Jeremy Hazell, UConn‘s Kemba Walker, Georgia‘s Trey Thompkins, Maryland‘s Jordan Williams, Northwestern‘s John Shurna, Vanderbilt‘s Jeff Taylor and West Virginia‘s Kevin Jones.

And now we’re down to 26.

Next step is to eliminate redundancies, meaning a nominee from the same team that features a superstar caliber player who will garner much of the focus by the media. Goodbye Ohio State‘s William Buford, Duke‘s Nolan Smith, Michigan State‘s Durrell Summers, North Carolina‘s Tyler Zeller and Purdue‘s E’Twaun Moore.

And now we’re down to 21.

Next step get rid of the players who are good but not good enough. Adios Missouri‘s Kim English, Georgetown‘s Austin Freeman, Syracuse‘s Kris Joseph, Baylor‘s Perry Jones, Illinois‘s Demetri McCarney, Villanova‘s Corey Fisher, Wisconsin‘s Jon Leuer, Washington‘s Isaiah Thomas, Pittsburgh‘s Ashton Gibbs and Florida‘s Chandler Parsons.

And finally, goodbye freshman point guards. There’s just too much on your plate to be the best player in the nation, no matter how much hype you’re getting coming into the season. Peace, Duke‘s Kyrie Irving and Kentucky‘s Brandon Knight.

And we’re left with nine I believe are legitimate Naismith contenders.

Chris Singleton, Florida State, F – Longshot indeed but got off to a great start by recording a triple-double in FSU’s season opener. Odds: 50-1

Harrison Barnes, North Carolina, F – The No. 1 recruit in the freshman class will have a lot riding on his shoulders as the Tar Heels will look for him to help improve last year’s offensively challenged squad. Odds: 25-1

Macolm Delaney, Virginia Tech, PG – He’s going to handle the ball for a team some people think could reach the Final Four and he averaged 20-plus last season. Odds: 20-1

Jared Sullinger, Ohio State, F – Not a bad debut for the freshman who went for 19 and 14 in the Buckeyes’ season opener. He should be the No. 1 scoring option down low for a team that has national title aspirations. Odds: 15-1

JaJaun Johnson, Purdue, F – The Boilermakers’ top option in the frontcourt, the senior can score from the post and has improved his range considerably. Odds: 15-1

Marcus Morris, Kansas, F – Just like Johnson, he’s the Jayhawks go-to guy now that Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins are no longer in Lawrence. Odds: 10-1

Jacob Pullen, Kansas State, PG – With Denis Clemente gone, Pullen moves back to handling point guard duties. It could affect his scoring average but when it comes to college basketball few epitomize it more than he does: Odds: 10-1

Kalin Lucas, Michigan State, PG – Is there a more clutch player than Lucas? He seems to hit every tough shot in every tough spot for Michigan State. Only problem is can he stay healthy? Odds: 10-1

Kyle Singler, Duke, F – He’s a senior on the best team in the nation and the Blue Devils’ No. 1 scoring option who can score in so many different ways, especially from the outside. He was the NCAA Tournament MOP and he’s gotten more press than any other college player coming into the season. He’s the clear favorite. Odds: 5-1

The season officially got underway Monday, but college basketball – for all intents and purposes – really begins Friday because literally the entire nation is playing tonight.

Seriously, got take a look at the schedule.

That being said, there aren’t any marquee, can’t miss matchups. Pretty much take tonight and the subsequent weekend games to become familiar with your favorite team’s new starting fives. You’re really not going to get much else out of the action.

So we won’t bother running down any games (if you must, CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish looks at things) and instead we’ll go right to the links because pageviews are good for everyone.

The biggest news of the last few days is that incoming Kentucky big man, Enes Kanter, has been ruled permanently ineligible by the NCAA. Coach John Calipari and the Wildcats plan to appeal the ruling. Yet another short-sighted, boorish decision handed down by those frauds running the NCAA. I agree with Jay Bilas’s take on the matter: If the kid wants to be a college student why not let him. ESPN.com has the story covered from a few different angles.

Luke Winn debuts his power rankings and it’s no surprise who is sitting on top. [SI.com]

The Dagger looks at college hoops through the BCS prism. [Yahoo.com]

Indiana picked up a big commitment the other day when Cody Zeller said he would be taking his talents to Bloomington. [USA Today]

Ten programs to keep an eye on over the next few years. [ESPN.com]

UConn got a big commitment from Ryan Boatright. Could his teammate follow him to Storrs? [Beyond The Arc]

With the season officially kicking off Monday evening, it’s time to put some season predictions on the record. So here’s a quick look at the six major conferences and a few of the more high profile mid-majors, running down the projected champion, sleeper team, player and freshman of the year in each.

ACC
Champion: Duke
Don’t Sleep On: Virginia Tech
Player of the Year: Kyle Singler, Duke
Freshman of the Year: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Georgetown's Austin Freeman averaged 16.5 ppg last season. (AP)

Big East
Champion: Villanova
Don’t Sleep On: Syracuse
Player of the Year: Austin Freeman, Georgetown
Freshman of the Year: Fab Melo, Syracuse

Big Ten
Champion: Michigan State
Don’t Sleep On: Wisconsin
Player of the Year: Jon Leuer, Wisconsin
Freshman of the Year: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Big 12
Champion: Kansas State
Don’t Sleep On: Missouri
Player of the Year: Marcus Morris, Kansas
Freshman of the Year: Cory Joseph, Texas

Pac-10
Champion: Washington
Don’t Sleep On: Arizona
Player of the Year: Isiah Thomas, Washington
Freshman of the Year: Keala King, Arizona State

SEC
Champion: Florida
Don’t Sleep On: Georgia
Player of the Year: Trey Tompkins, Georgia
Freshman of the Year: Tobias Harris, Tennessee

Atlantic 10
Champion: Temple
Don’t Sleep On: Richmond
Player of the Year: Lavoy Allen, Temple
Freshman of the Year: Juwan Staten, Dayton

CAA
Champion: Old Dominion
Don’t Sleep On: VCU
Player of the Year: Denzel Bowles, James Madison
Freshman of the Year: It’s a needle in a haystack situation down there.

C-USA
Champion: Memphis
Don’t Sleep On: Southern Miss
Player of the Year: Gary Flower, Southern Miss
Freshman of the Year: Joe Jackson, Memphis

Mountain West
Champion: BYU
Don’t Sleep On: San Diego State
Player of the Year: Jimmer Fredette, BYU
Freshman of the Year: Kendall Williams, New Mexico

WCC
Champion: Gonzaga
Don’t Sleep On: Loyola Marymount
Player of the Year: Mickey McConnell, Saint Mary’s
Freshman of the Year: Sam Dower, Gonzaga

NCAA Tournament Seeds

1. Duke
1. Pittsburgh
1. Michigan State
1. Kansas State

2. Kansas
2. Villanova
2. Florida
2. Kentucky

3. Ohio State
3. Memphis
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin

4. North Carolina
4. Temple
4. Gonzaga
4. Baylor

Indeed. It’s about that time.

The 2010-11 college basketball season kicks off next week and instead of writing a 1,000 long winded previews on the 300-plus teams and endless number of conferences that just about everyone else out there has already written, I figured I’d look at things a little differently.

Based on the odds, of course.

So here’s a look at how the guys out in Vegas have handicapped the race to win the 2011 NCAA Tournament with a quick breakdown of each team’s chances.

Duke senior Kyle Singler avearged 17.7 points per game last year. (AP)

Duke
10-11 Odds: 4-1
Last Year: National Champs (35-5)
Key Returnees: Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, The Plumlee Brothers
Why They Can Win It All: Well, aside from bringing back Singler and Smith, you may have heard about this freshman that Coach K is raving about. Does the name Kyrie Irving ring a bell? He’s a point guard? Nothing? If you don’t know him you will shortly. Cutting to the chase, the Blue Devils are just plan loaded.
Why They Won’t Win It All: A freshman point guard? Other than that you’re really are grabbing at straws to find a reason why the Blue Devils won’t repeat.

Kentucky
10-11 Odds: 8-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (35-3)
Key Returnees: Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins
Why They Can Win It All: John Calipari lost a ton of talent from last year’s team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe were all one-and-done. But that hasn’t stopped Calipari from bringing in another awesome class of impact freshmen, led by Brandon Knight, Cal’s next big-impact freshman point guard, and Enes Kanter, a European big man who may have to sit some games before he’s allowed to suit up.
Why They Won’t Win It All: I said throughout last year that Kentucky’s inexperience would cost them in the NCAA Tournament and it did dearly against West Virginia. Same rule applies with this year’s team.

Michigan State
10-11 Odds: 9-1
Last Year: Final Four
Key Returnees: Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers
Why They Can Win It All: A healthy Lucas is one of the most clutch players in the nation and this team returns a ton of experience having been to two straight Final Fours. Plus, this being a Tom Izzo team, you know they’re going to be one of the nation’s best defensive teams.
Why They Won’t Win It All: The loss of Raymar Logan will be significant along with the dismissal of Chris Allen. Health will be the biggest issue for the Spartans. Stay healthy and this team should make it to its third straight Final Four.

Kansas State
10-11 Odds: 10-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (29-8)
Key Returnees: Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels
Why They Can Win It All: A great core returns, led by Pullen, one of the top point guards in the country, and they have some big bodies who can score and rebound underneath. Head coach Frank Martin likes his class of sophomores and expects big contributions from them.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Pullen is transitioning back to the point guard spot after the Wildcats lost the services of Denis Clemente. Expectations have never been higher for K-State. While this is an experienced team, can they handle the increased pressure following last year’s run to a regional final?

Memphis
10-11 Odds: 13-1
Last Year: NIT (24-10)
Key Returnees: Will Coleman, Wesley Witherspoon
Why They Can Win It All: Ask the experts and many will tell you that Memphis – and not Kentucky or North Carolina or Duke – has the top freshman class in the nation. With the likes of Joe Jackson and Chris Crawford, there’s a lot to be excited about with the Tigers. The wing play should be overwhelming and controlling the boards, which was a big problem last year, should be significantly improved this year.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Inexperience at so many key positions and while the non-conference schedule is impressive with games against Kansas, Georgetown, Tennessee and Gonzaga, C-USA will once again be underwhelming meaning the Tigers will be relatively lightly tested by the time they get to March.

North Carolina
10-11 Odds: 13-1
Last Year: NIT (20-17)
Key Returnees: Ed Davis, Marcus Ginyard, Deon Thompson
Why They Can Win It All: The Tar Heels are bringing in the nation’s top freshman in Harrison Barnes who some have already tabbed as the player of the year. High praise, indeed, but Barnes is going to have a huge impact. So will freshman Reggie Bullock whose shooting range will give defenses big problems. The nightmare season of last year is behind them and all the Injuries and inexperience are in the rear view mirror.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Frontcourt depth will be an issue with the Heels. And just like Kentucky, relying on freshmen to deliver when the going gets tough can be a recipe for disaster.

Purdue
10-11 Odds: 15-1
Last Year: Sweet 16 (29-5)
Key Returnees: E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson
Why They Can Win It All: Moore and Johnson are a dynamic duo up front for the Boilermakers but let’s be serious about their odds…
Why They Won’t Win It All: No Robbie Hummel means no real shot at the Final Four. The Boilermakers heart and soul was on his way to making a comeback from season-ending knee surgery late last season but the forward re-injured the knee – in the first practice of the new season – and should miss the entire season. A crushing blow to a team that pretty much had it’s title hopes dashed on Day 1.

Texas
10-11 Odds: 15-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 1st Round (24-10)
Key Returnees: J’Covan Brown, Jordan Hamilton, Dogus Balbay
Why They Can Win It All: N/A
Why They Won’t Win It All: At 15-1, Vegas is being very, very generous with the Longhorns. Truth be told, this team really should be in the 25-1 range. They’re not that good. Rick Barnes is coming off his self-described worst coaching job of his career plus three of the team’s top four scorers from last season are gone.

Villanova's Corey Fisher avearged 13.3 points per game last season.

Villanova
10-11 Odds: 16-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (25-8)
Key Returnees: Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, Antonio Pena
Why They Can Win It All: The Wildcats appear to be the cream of the Big East crop with yet another ultra-talented backcourt led by Fisher and Stokes. Fisher will probably handle most of the point guard duties while Stokes will thrive on the wing. When the Wildcats are hitting their shots they’re going to be ridiculously tough to take down. Motivation should be high after last year’s very disappointing exit in the second round of the Tournament.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Defense was an issue with the Wildcats last year and it probably will be this year. As offensively talented as Villanova is – despite not having Scottie Reynolds – they’re decidedly lacking on the defensive end. Head coach Jay Wright will have to develop some defensive toughness with this team after it was sorely missing last year.

Pittsburgh
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (25-9)
Key Returnees: Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown
Why They Can Win It All: I wouldn’t say that Pitt overachieved last year, but let’s just say the kind of regular season the Panthers put together wasn’t expected. Pitt returns just about all of its scoring from last year and expect really big things from Wanamaker who moves over from the three spot to the two. Jamie Dixon is probably the most underrated coach in a BCS conference. If you don’t believe me, just check out his winning percentage in Big East play.
Why They Won’t Win It All: The Panthers always seem to underachieve. Despite Dixon’s regular season brilliance in his seven seasons at the helm, Pitt hasn’t gotten to the next level, i.e. the Final Four. And keep an eye on frontcourt play. The bodies down low aren’t gong to overwhelm the nation’s best and they showed last year that they can be maddeningly inconsistent.

Kansas
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (33-3)
Key Returnees: Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, The Morris Twins
Why They Can Win It All: The Jayhawks have plenty of talent this year, so what’s new? Josh Selby is the freshman to look out for in the backcourt, although Selby still isn’t cleared to play yet. A lot will be expected of the Morris boys who will have to step up into the considerable leadership void. Truth be told, there are more reasons to say no than yes with this team.
Why They Won’t Win It All: As much talent as this team will feature they’ve lost a ton from last year’s loaded squad. No more Cole Aldrich or Sherron Collins. Forty-nine percent of its scoring from last year is gone and that’s a lot of overcome. Also there’s the track record. Why does Kansas perpetually underachieve?

Baylor
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (28-8)
Key Returnees: LaceDarius Dunn, Anthony Jones, Quincy Acy
Why They Can Win It All: The Bears might have the best shooting guard in the country in Dunn. And the rest of the Bears are pretty good as well, including forwards Acy and Jones. Unfortunately, Dunn’s status with the team is still undetermined. With an early fall domestic abuse incident, Dunn is cleared to practice but suspended from competition indefinitely.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Three starters are gone from last year’s squad, including big man Ekpe Udoh and the valuable Tweety Carter. Point guard will be a question mark and how will the Bears deal with the added weight of big expectations? Baylor had a season for the ages under Scott Drew last season. Equaling that same success is going a tough, tough job. It’ll be impossible if Dunn misses significant time.

Other Notables With Long Odds: Butler (28-1), BYU (50-1), Connecticut (50-1), Florida (20-1), Florida State (60-1), Georgetown (22-1), Gonzaga (50-1), Illinois (22-1), Louisville (20-1), Missouri (48-1), Ohio State (25-1), Syracuse (28-1), Washington (55-1), West Virginia (55-1)