The Double Bonus

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Tuesday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 1 Duke got its first real test of the season against Marquette as the Golden Eagles made things closer than many expected. Mason Plumlee was the big star for the Blue Devils Monday, scoring 18 of his 25 points in the second half to lead Duke to the 82-77 win in the first CBE Classic semifinal.

No. 4 Kansas State easily handled No. 22 Gonzaga in the other semifinal of the CBE Classic setting up the biggest  matchup of the young season tonight against big, bad Duke.

No. 2 Michigan State almost did the unthinkable: lose to Division II Chaminade. That was before reality set in for the Silveswoards who actually led this game with just over 14 minutes remaining. Michigan State eventually wore down the local school, advancing in the Maui Invitational.

Links

LaceDarius Dunn returned to the Baylor lineup last night and poured in 24 points in a Bears win. [Star Telegram]

The one-man UConn wrecking crew known as Kemba Walker was at it again yesterday. [Courant]

And No. 13 Washington obliterated Virginia in the day’s final Maui Invitational game. [AP]

The Dagger continues to rave over the recruiting job Tom Crean is doing at Indiana. [Yahoo]

Minnesota a legitimate threat in the Big Ten? [College Hoops Journal]

A Q&A with Kansas State head coach Frank Martin. [Yahoo]

Ken Pomeroy with his latest blog post,  “What win distribution can do for you.” [Kepom.com]

Tonight’s Must See Games

No. 2 Michigan State vs. Connecticut
Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: Michigan State -5.5
KenPom: Michigan State -5
TV: 7 pm, ESPN
Quite simply all eyes will be on the point guards. Two of the best in the country square off when Kalin Lucas and the above-mentioned Kemba Walker take to the court. The Spartans have the big edge for a number of reasons, namely their superior experience. The Huskies showed their youth yesterday against a veteran Wichita State team. How do you think they’re going to fair against a Michigan State team that’s just as experienced and features better talent than the Shockers?

No. 22 Gonzaga vs. Marquette
Location: Sprint Center, Kansas City
Line: Marquette -1.5
KenPom: Marquette -1
TV: 7:45 pm, ESPNU
We know Marquette can play some defense but they showed that they can score a little too last night against the Blue Devils. The Zags, on the other hand, aren’t playing great basketball and really need a win here having lost two in a row.

No. 13 Washington vs. No. 8 Kentucky
Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: Washington -2.5
KenPom: Washington -1
TV: 9 pm, ESPN
First big test for the Huskies this season against a young, albeit talented John Calipari squad. Washington’s Isaiah Thomas will square off against Kentucky’s vaunted freshman, Terrence Jones, who Huskies fans will be rooting hard against. You might remember that Jones originally committed to play at Washington before backing out and deciding to head to Lexington. Jones is coming off a monster game in the the Wildcats victory over Oklahoma Monday where he had 29 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks. Hopefully he saved something for the Huskies.

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Kansas State
Location: Sprint Center, Kansas City
Line: Duke -5.5
KenPom: Duke -7
TV: 10 pm, ESPN2
Huge matchup that we could very see again come March which is easily the biggest of the young season. Two supremely talented teams which huge expectations. I don’t really need to build this one up. It’s a big game. Don’t miss it.

A quick look at what went on yesterday and what to look out for Monday.

Yesterday’s Action

While No. 14 Purdue and No. 20 Georgetown rode big second halves to easy wins Sunday, things weren’t so cut and dry for the likes of No. 10 Syracuse and No. 9 Florida.

The Orange eked out a 3-point victory over William & Mary at the Carrier Dome as Syracuse shot just 36.7 percent from the field. Florida, on the other hand, rolled out to a big first half lead only to see Morehead State come roaring back in the second half. The Gators pulled out a 61-55 victory in Gainesville but not before Kenneth Faried went off for 20 points and 18 rebounds against the Florida front court. It left Bill Donovan comparing Faried to Dennis Rodman.

And finally, North Carolina proved it’s not Top 10 worthy – or maybe even Top 25 worthy – after the Tar Heels dropped their second straight Sunday, this time falling to Vanderbilt, 72-65, in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, after losing to Minnesota the other night. The Tar Heels (2-2) are now off to their worst start in a decade.

Links

Connecticut kicks off the Maui Invitational with a tough matchup against Wichita State. [Conn Post]

And here’s a look at all the Maui matchups by Mike DeCourcy. [Sporting News]

If you missed it Friday, Bruce Pearl was handed a pretty lengthy suspension by the SEC. [ESPN.com]

An interesting character showed up at a George Mason team breakfast [Ballin' Is A Habit]

Tonight’s Must See Games

No. 12 Kentucky vs. Oklahoma
Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: -15
KenPom: Kentucky -12
TV: 5:30, ESPN2
The Maui Invitational is here once against as the young Wildcats look to top the equally young Sooners. These two teams went head to head over some recruits last season and guess who won that battle? Yep, John Calipari and the Wildcats as they nabbed Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. Both teams are lightly tested so far this season so we’ll see how the young talent on both sides fare, especially Kentucky’s three big freshmen (Jones, Lamb and Brandon Knight).

No. 1 Duke vs. Marquette
Location: Sprint Center, Kansas City
Line: Duke -12
KenPom: Duke -13
TV: 7:30 pm, ESPN2
The Blue Devils face their first legit test of the early season considering they’ve won their first three games of the season by an average of 41 points per. Kyrie Irving, Duke’s impressive point guard, will get a stern defensive test as Marquette has already forced 69 turnovers in four games. The only question is will the Blue Devils get a stern offensive test from the Golden Eagles? Marquette has yet to distinguish itself on the offensive end. Duke hasn’t lost a November game since 2006 when the Blue Devils lost to, you guessed it, Marquette. That’s 25 straight games.

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 11 Gonzaga
Location: Sprint Center, Kansas City
Line: Kansas State -5
KenPom: Kansas State -5
TV: 9:30 pm, ESPN2
After a disappointing performance against Presbyterian, Frank Martin has had been critical of his team, saying they lack leadership. That falls on the shoulders of Jacob Pullen as the senior guard is the heart and soul of the Wildcats. Martin’s going to have to rely on Pullen until Curtis Kelly can find his way out of Martin’s doghouse. Kelly’s status for Monday night isn’t known. But Gonzaga will definitely have Elias Harris on the court after the starting power forward injured his Achilles in the Zag’s loss to San Diego State. The Bulldogs continue their tradition of playing tough non-conference games but could very easily be looking at a loss here. If they couldn’t out-rebound San Diego State last week how are they going to out-muscle the Wildcats?

No. 2 Michigan State vs. Chaminade
Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui
Line: N/A
KenPom: N/A
TV: 9:30 pm, ESPNU
Spartans get Div. II Chaminade in their customary spot as Maui Invitational host and doormat. This will get ugly, fast.

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Wednesday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 4 Ohio State 93, No. 9 Florida 75
Um, Ohio State is going to be really, really good. That’s the only thing you can say after watching the Buckeyes destroy the Gators in Gainesville. David Lighty had 26 points while freshman sensation Jared Sulllinger had another double-double, scoring 26 points and grabbing 10 boards as the Buckeyes blitzed the defensively-challenged Gators in the second half, outscoring the home team by 21 over the final 20 minutes. Apparently all it took for the Buckeyes to look like world-beaters was a fiery halftime speech by Thad Matta.

No. 3 Kansas State 73, No. 22 Virginia Tech 57
It was a close game for 30 minutes before things got out of hand for the Hokies. Tech didn’t necessarily play a bad game if you’re judging by the final score. But they definitely didn’t play a good game.  Too many turnovers – Malcolm Delaney had 10 by himself – and an inability to matchup physically with Kansas State was Tech’s undoing. They also failed to take advantage of Jacob Pullen spending only a few minutes on the floor in the first half thanks to foul trouble and far too often settled for poor perimeter shots. I liked when Frank Martin had Will Spradling handling the point and Pullen back at the 2. That’s where Pullen thrived last year. Let’s see if Martin gives the two more time on the floor together.

No. 25 San Diego State 79, No. 11 Gonzaga 76
Teams just don’t go up to Spokane and win but that’s what the Aztecs did in impressive fashion Tuesday behind Billy White’s career-high 30 points. Gonzaga suffered just its fifth home loss since 2004 as the Bulldogs were out-rebounded badly, allowing 18 offensive boards which San Diego State turned into 24 second chance points. Steven Gray’s 35 for Gonzaga wasn’t enough as the Aztecs showed that the preseason hype surrounding them wasn’t all talk. Steve Fisher’s team can really play.

Links

Gordon Hayward, where have you gone? Butler looked awful against Louisville last night and Rick Bozich says this year’s squad isn’t the Butler of last year. [FoxSports.com]

Jared Sullinger for Player of the Year? [CBSSports.com]

Michigan State was out-rebounded by South Carolina, but still pulled out the win against the Gamecocks. [Free Press]

Speaking of Michigan State, Delvon Roe is starring on a different kind of stage. [USA Today]

Baylor, minus LaceDarius Dunn as he serves a suspension, got a little more than it bargained for with La Salle. [Philadelphia Daily News]

Some stats from ESPN’s 25 straight hours of basketball. [ESPN.com]

Charles Barkley opining on the NCAA Tournament? It’s happening this March. [AP]

Courtesy of Vegas Watch, check out these hype clouds. [Audacity of Hoops]

Tonight’s Can’t Miss Games

Take the night off after 25 straight hours of quality college basketball actions. As for the Top 25, No. 24 BYU, No. 19 Memphis and No. 14 Purdue all take on cupcakes tonight.

With the season officially kicking off Monday evening, it’s time to put some season predictions on the record. So here’s a quick look at the six major conferences and a few of the more high profile mid-majors, running down the projected champion, sleeper team, player and freshman of the year in each.

ACC
Champion: Duke
Don’t Sleep On: Virginia Tech
Player of the Year: Kyle Singler, Duke
Freshman of the Year: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Georgetown's Austin Freeman averaged 16.5 ppg last season. (AP)

Big East
Champion: Villanova
Don’t Sleep On: Syracuse
Player of the Year: Austin Freeman, Georgetown
Freshman of the Year: Fab Melo, Syracuse

Big Ten
Champion: Michigan State
Don’t Sleep On: Wisconsin
Player of the Year: Jon Leuer, Wisconsin
Freshman of the Year: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Big 12
Champion: Kansas State
Don’t Sleep On: Missouri
Player of the Year: Marcus Morris, Kansas
Freshman of the Year: Cory Joseph, Texas

Pac-10
Champion: Washington
Don’t Sleep On: Arizona
Player of the Year: Isiah Thomas, Washington
Freshman of the Year: Keala King, Arizona State

SEC
Champion: Florida
Don’t Sleep On: Georgia
Player of the Year: Trey Tompkins, Georgia
Freshman of the Year: Tobias Harris, Tennessee

Atlantic 10
Champion: Temple
Don’t Sleep On: Richmond
Player of the Year: Lavoy Allen, Temple
Freshman of the Year: Juwan Staten, Dayton

CAA
Champion: Old Dominion
Don’t Sleep On: VCU
Player of the Year: Denzel Bowles, James Madison
Freshman of the Year: It’s a needle in a haystack situation down there.

C-USA
Champion: Memphis
Don’t Sleep On: Southern Miss
Player of the Year: Gary Flower, Southern Miss
Freshman of the Year: Joe Jackson, Memphis

Mountain West
Champion: BYU
Don’t Sleep On: San Diego State
Player of the Year: Jimmer Fredette, BYU
Freshman of the Year: Kendall Williams, New Mexico

WCC
Champion: Gonzaga
Don’t Sleep On: Loyola Marymount
Player of the Year: Mickey McConnell, Saint Mary’s
Freshman of the Year: Sam Dower, Gonzaga

NCAA Tournament Seeds

1. Duke
1. Pittsburgh
1. Michigan State
1. Kansas State

2. Kansas
2. Villanova
2. Florida
2. Kentucky

3. Ohio State
3. Memphis
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin

4. North Carolina
4. Temple
4. Gonzaga
4. Baylor

Indeed. It’s about that time.

The 2010-11 college basketball season kicks off next week and instead of writing a 1,000 long winded previews on the 300-plus teams and endless number of conferences that just about everyone else out there has already written, I figured I’d look at things a little differently.

Based on the odds, of course.

So here’s a look at how the guys out in Vegas have handicapped the race to win the 2011 NCAA Tournament with a quick breakdown of each team’s chances.

Duke senior Kyle Singler avearged 17.7 points per game last year. (AP)

Duke
10-11 Odds: 4-1
Last Year: National Champs (35-5)
Key Returnees: Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, The Plumlee Brothers
Why They Can Win It All: Well, aside from bringing back Singler and Smith, you may have heard about this freshman that Coach K is raving about. Does the name Kyrie Irving ring a bell? He’s a point guard? Nothing? If you don’t know him you will shortly. Cutting to the chase, the Blue Devils are just plan loaded.
Why They Won’t Win It All: A freshman point guard? Other than that you’re really are grabbing at straws to find a reason why the Blue Devils won’t repeat.

Kentucky
10-11 Odds: 8-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (35-3)
Key Returnees: Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins
Why They Can Win It All: John Calipari lost a ton of talent from last year’s team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe were all one-and-done. But that hasn’t stopped Calipari from bringing in another awesome class of impact freshmen, led by Brandon Knight, Cal’s next big-impact freshman point guard, and Enes Kanter, a European big man who may have to sit some games before he’s allowed to suit up.
Why They Won’t Win It All: I said throughout last year that Kentucky’s inexperience would cost them in the NCAA Tournament and it did dearly against West Virginia. Same rule applies with this year’s team.

Michigan State
10-11 Odds: 9-1
Last Year: Final Four
Key Returnees: Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers
Why They Can Win It All: A healthy Lucas is one of the most clutch players in the nation and this team returns a ton of experience having been to two straight Final Fours. Plus, this being a Tom Izzo team, you know they’re going to be one of the nation’s best defensive teams.
Why They Won’t Win It All: The loss of Raymar Logan will be significant along with the dismissal of Chris Allen. Health will be the biggest issue for the Spartans. Stay healthy and this team should make it to its third straight Final Four.

Kansas State
10-11 Odds: 10-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (29-8)
Key Returnees: Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels
Why They Can Win It All: A great core returns, led by Pullen, one of the top point guards in the country, and they have some big bodies who can score and rebound underneath. Head coach Frank Martin likes his class of sophomores and expects big contributions from them.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Pullen is transitioning back to the point guard spot after the Wildcats lost the services of Denis Clemente. Expectations have never been higher for K-State. While this is an experienced team, can they handle the increased pressure following last year’s run to a regional final?

Memphis
10-11 Odds: 13-1
Last Year: NIT (24-10)
Key Returnees: Will Coleman, Wesley Witherspoon
Why They Can Win It All: Ask the experts and many will tell you that Memphis – and not Kentucky or North Carolina or Duke – has the top freshman class in the nation. With the likes of Joe Jackson and Chris Crawford, there’s a lot to be excited about with the Tigers. The wing play should be overwhelming and controlling the boards, which was a big problem last year, should be significantly improved this year.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Inexperience at so many key positions and while the non-conference schedule is impressive with games against Kansas, Georgetown, Tennessee and Gonzaga, C-USA will once again be underwhelming meaning the Tigers will be relatively lightly tested by the time they get to March.

North Carolina
10-11 Odds: 13-1
Last Year: NIT (20-17)
Key Returnees: Ed Davis, Marcus Ginyard, Deon Thompson
Why They Can Win It All: The Tar Heels are bringing in the nation’s top freshman in Harrison Barnes who some have already tabbed as the player of the year. High praise, indeed, but Barnes is going to have a huge impact. So will freshman Reggie Bullock whose shooting range will give defenses big problems. The nightmare season of last year is behind them and all the Injuries and inexperience are in the rear view mirror.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Frontcourt depth will be an issue with the Heels. And just like Kentucky, relying on freshmen to deliver when the going gets tough can be a recipe for disaster.

Purdue
10-11 Odds: 15-1
Last Year: Sweet 16 (29-5)
Key Returnees: E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson
Why They Can Win It All: Moore and Johnson are a dynamic duo up front for the Boilermakers but let’s be serious about their odds…
Why They Won’t Win It All: No Robbie Hummel means no real shot at the Final Four. The Boilermakers heart and soul was on his way to making a comeback from season-ending knee surgery late last season but the forward re-injured the knee – in the first practice of the new season – and should miss the entire season. A crushing blow to a team that pretty much had it’s title hopes dashed on Day 1.

Texas
10-11 Odds: 15-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 1st Round (24-10)
Key Returnees: J’Covan Brown, Jordan Hamilton, Dogus Balbay
Why They Can Win It All: N/A
Why They Won’t Win It All: At 15-1, Vegas is being very, very generous with the Longhorns. Truth be told, this team really should be in the 25-1 range. They’re not that good. Rick Barnes is coming off his self-described worst coaching job of his career plus three of the team’s top four scorers from last season are gone.

Villanova's Corey Fisher avearged 13.3 points per game last season.

Villanova
10-11 Odds: 16-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (25-8)
Key Returnees: Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, Antonio Pena
Why They Can Win It All: The Wildcats appear to be the cream of the Big East crop with yet another ultra-talented backcourt led by Fisher and Stokes. Fisher will probably handle most of the point guard duties while Stokes will thrive on the wing. When the Wildcats are hitting their shots they’re going to be ridiculously tough to take down. Motivation should be high after last year’s very disappointing exit in the second round of the Tournament.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Defense was an issue with the Wildcats last year and it probably will be this year. As offensively talented as Villanova is – despite not having Scottie Reynolds – they’re decidedly lacking on the defensive end. Head coach Jay Wright will have to develop some defensive toughness with this team after it was sorely missing last year.

Pittsburgh
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (25-9)
Key Returnees: Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown
Why They Can Win It All: I wouldn’t say that Pitt overachieved last year, but let’s just say the kind of regular season the Panthers put together wasn’t expected. Pitt returns just about all of its scoring from last year and expect really big things from Wanamaker who moves over from the three spot to the two. Jamie Dixon is probably the most underrated coach in a BCS conference. If you don’t believe me, just check out his winning percentage in Big East play.
Why They Won’t Win It All: The Panthers always seem to underachieve. Despite Dixon’s regular season brilliance in his seven seasons at the helm, Pitt hasn’t gotten to the next level, i.e. the Final Four. And keep an eye on frontcourt play. The bodies down low aren’t gong to overwhelm the nation’s best and they showed last year that they can be maddeningly inconsistent.

Kansas
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (33-3)
Key Returnees: Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, The Morris Twins
Why They Can Win It All: The Jayhawks have plenty of talent this year, so what’s new? Josh Selby is the freshman to look out for in the backcourt, although Selby still isn’t cleared to play yet. A lot will be expected of the Morris boys who will have to step up into the considerable leadership void. Truth be told, there are more reasons to say no than yes with this team.
Why They Won’t Win It All: As much talent as this team will feature they’ve lost a ton from last year’s loaded squad. No more Cole Aldrich or Sherron Collins. Forty-nine percent of its scoring from last year is gone and that’s a lot of overcome. Also there’s the track record. Why does Kansas perpetually underachieve?

Baylor
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (28-8)
Key Returnees: LaceDarius Dunn, Anthony Jones, Quincy Acy
Why They Can Win It All: The Bears might have the best shooting guard in the country in Dunn. And the rest of the Bears are pretty good as well, including forwards Acy and Jones. Unfortunately, Dunn’s status with the team is still undetermined. With an early fall domestic abuse incident, Dunn is cleared to practice but suspended from competition indefinitely.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Three starters are gone from last year’s squad, including big man Ekpe Udoh and the valuable Tweety Carter. Point guard will be a question mark and how will the Bears deal with the added weight of big expectations? Baylor had a season for the ages under Scott Drew last season. Equaling that same success is going a tough, tough job. It’ll be impossible if Dunn misses significant time.

Other Notables With Long Odds: Butler (28-1), BYU (50-1), Connecticut (50-1), Florida (20-1), Florida State (60-1), Georgetown (22-1), Gonzaga (50-1), Illinois (22-1), Louisville (20-1), Missouri (48-1), Ohio State (25-1), Syracuse (28-1), Washington (55-1), West Virginia (55-1)

In college basketball, the polls don’t really matter that much. So for argumentative purposes here’s what I think the newest AP Top 25 should look like when it’s released Monday afternoon – the final one of the regular season.

1. Kansas (29-2, 15-1 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 2
Last Week: Defeated No. 5 Kansas State, @ Missouri
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Jayhawks return to their rightful place as the nation’s top team.

2. Kentucky (29-2, 14-2 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 3
Last Week: Defeated @ Georgia Florida
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Wildcats will be the No. 1 seed in the South Region when the brackets are released next Sunday.

3. Syracuse (28-3, 15-3 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 1
Last Week: Defeated St. John’s, Lost @ Louisville
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Short stay for the Orange atop the rankings. Still like them to get to Indy for the Final Four but they’re not the best team in America.

4. Duke (26-5, 15-3 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 4
Last Week: Lost to No. 22 Maryland, Defeated North Carolina
This Week: ACC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Duke earned a share of its 12th ACC regular season title after it handed the Tar Heels their worst loss in Durham in the storied rivalry’s history.

5. West Virginia (24-6, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated No. 19 Georgetown, @ No. 8 Villanova
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Mountaineers have picked up some impressive wins down the stretch. Still think their guard play is a little suspect, but I think they’re an Elite Eight team.

6. Kansas State (24-6, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 5
Last Week: Lost @ No. 2 Kansas, Defeated Iowa State
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Wildcats may have blown their chance at securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament but expect them to make a big run in the dance. Some think they’re overrated. I’m not one of them.

7. Ohio State (24-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 6
Last Week: Defeated Illinois
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Nice to see that everyone pretty much has Evan Turner as their player of the year. No one has been more valuable to their team.

8. Villanova (24-6, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 8
Last Week: Defeated @ Cincinnati, Lost to No. 10 West Virginia
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Wildcats aren’t exactly generating a lot of buzz entering the postseason. But I guarantee no one wants to play them.

9. Michigan State (24-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 11
Last Week: Defeated Penn State, Michigan
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Spartans earned a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State and Purdue with a drubbing of the Wolverines Sunday. Still don’t like the way Michigan State is playing as they head into postseason play. But don’t count out Kalin Lucas and Tom Izzo.

10. New Mexico (28-3, 14-2 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated TCU
This Week: MWC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
The Lobos as a No. 2 seed in the tournament? Looks like it’s going to happen.

11. Purdue (26-4, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 7
Last Week: Defeated Indiana, @ Penn State
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No.2  seed)
Boilermakers did alright in their first full week without Robbie Hummel. But then again look who they played.

12. Vanderbilt (23-7, 13-4 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 13
Last Week: Defeated @ Florida, Lost to South Carolina
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
The drop off after the first seven or eight teams is pretty steep. No way a team of Vanderbilt’s caliber should be this high but it’s just one of those years…

13. Pittsburgh (24-7, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 17
Last Week: Defeated Providence, Rutgers
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 2 seed)
If Jim Boeheim wasn’t having the kind of season he and the Orange are having, Jamie Dixon would be a lock to pick up Big East Coach of the Year honors.

14. Gonzaga (26-5, 13-2 WCC)
Pvs. AP: 18
Last Week: Defeated CSU-Bakersfield, Loyola Marymount
This Week: WCC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Bulldogs look on their way to adding yet another WCC Tournament title to the mantle.

15. Tennessee (23-7, 11-5 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 16
Last Week: Defeated Arkansas, Lost @ Mississippi State
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 5 seed)
Tough to figure out the Vols. One week they’re knocking off Kentucky the next week losing badly to a bubble team. They’re not going anywhere in the tournament.

16. Wisconsin (23-7, 13-5 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 15
Last Week: Defeated Iowa, @ Illinois
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Badgers will be very familiar with their first round opponent in the Big Ten tourney having just played them Sunday.

17. BYU (28-4, 13-3 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 14
Last Week: Defeated @ Utah, @ TCU
This Week: MWC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Cougars fans are a little worried about Jimmer Fredette after the PG has scored just 32 in his last three games, well off his average.

18. Butler (27-4, 18-0 Horizon)
Pvs. AP: 12
Last Week: Defeated Wisconsin-Milwaukee
This Week: Wright State (Horizon Tournament Championship Game)
Many eyes will be on Tuesday’s game. Horizon is a one-bid league so if the Bulldogs lose that means an an at-large invitation will be off the board.

19. Maryland (23-7, 13-3 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 22
Last Week: Defeated No. 4 Duke, @ Virginia
This Week: ACC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Terps got a little revenge against the Blue Devils at home Wednesday and look forward to round No. 3 with their hated rivals in the conference championship game.

20. Baylor (24-6, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 21
Last Week: Defeated @ Texas Tech, Texas
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Bears have quietly had a very good season. I guarantee you no one had Baylor pegged as the league’s third best team when the year started. In fact, the media picked them to finish 10th. Scott Drew’s doing quite a job in Waco.

21. Temple (26-5, 14-2 A-10)
Pvs. AP: 20
Last Week: Defeated @ Saint Louis, George Washington
This Week: A-10 Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Anyone else rooting for a Temple-Xavier showdown in the A-10 championship game?

22. UTEP (24-5, 14-1 C-USA)
Pvs. AP: 24
Last Week: Defeated @ Marshall, UAB
This Week: C-USA Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Miners wrapped up the C-USA regular season crown with two good wins, especially the one on the road against Marshall.

23. Georgetown (20-9, 10-8 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 19
Last Week: Lost @ No. 10 West Virginia, Defeated Cincinnati
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 8 seed)
Sad news about Austin Freeman but hopefully the diagnosis will help him feel better and in turn get the Hoyas playing better basketball. Team is capable of making a big tournament run.

24. Texas A&M (22-8, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 23
Last Week: Defeated Oklahoma State, @ Oklahoma
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Not expecting much out of the Aggies when the tournament rolls around but they’ll be a tough out.

25. Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 Big East)
Pvs. AP: NR
Last Week: Defeated Connecticut, @ Marquette (OT)
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 7 seed)
Don’t know how the Irish are doing it without Luke Harangody (who just returned from a five game absence) but they’re beating everyone right now and should be heading to the NCAA Tournament.

Others Who Just Missed The Cut (And In No Particular Order): Marquette, Mississippi State, Louisville, Xavier

In college basketball, the polls don’t really matter that much. So for argumentative purposes here’s what I think the newest AP Top 25 should look like when it’s released Monday afternoon.

1. Kansas (27-2, 12-1 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 1
Last Week: Defeated Oklahoma, Lost to @ Oklahoma State
This Week: No. 6 Kansas State, @ Missouri
Not penalizing the Jayhawks for a conference road loss, their first of the season. Personally, I think you’ll have a hard time justifying putting anyone ahead of Kansas.

2. Kentucky ( 27-2, 12-2 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 2
Last Week: Defeated South Carolina, Lost to No. 19 Tennessee
This Week: @ Georgia, Florida
See above, only this was Kentucky’s second conference road loss.

3. Syracuse (27-2, 14-2 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 4
Last Week: Defeated @ Providence, No. 7 Villanova
This Week: St. John’s, @ Louisville
The Orange dismantled Villanova at home in front of a record crowd and pretty much clinched the Big East regular season title.

4. Duke (25-4, 12-2 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 5
Last Week: Defeated Tulsa, @ Virginia
This Week: @ Maryland, North Carolina
Very much looking forward to Duke being bounced in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. This team is not going anywhere, despite what some others would rather have you believe.

5. Kansas State (24-4, 11-3 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 6
Last Week: Defeated @ Texas Tech, Missouri
This Week: @ No. 1 Kansas, Iowa State
Wildcats have quietly positioned themselves to steal a No. 1 seed if things break in their favor over the next two weeks.

6. Purdue (24-4, 12-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 3
Last Week: Defeated @ Minnesota,
This Week: Indiana, @ Penn State
Terrible that the Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel and I’m not really sure how much you should punish them for it.

7. Villanova (23-5, 12-4 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 7
Last Week: Defeated South Florida, Lost to No. 4 Syracuse
This Week: @ Cincinnati, No. 8 West Virginia
I’m sure many feel the Wildcats should be penalized for the thrashing Syracuse handed them Saturday. But can’t justify putting WVU ahead of Nova considering Nova  beat the Mountaineers a few weeks ago.

8. West Virginia (22-6, 11-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 8
Last Week: Lost to @ Connecticut, Defeated Cincinnati
This Week: No. 11 Georgetown, @ No. 7 Villanova
Mountaineers can leapfrog the Wildcats if they beat them in Philly next weekend.

9. Ohio State (23-7, 13-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 9
Last Week: Defeated @ Penn State, Michigan
This Week: Illinois
Evan Turner for Player of the Year. I don’t even think it’s much of a debate.

10. New Mexico (27-3, 13-2 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated @ Colorado State, @ No. BYU
This Week: TCU
That win in Provo against the Cougars was tough. Lobos are going to be a dangerous team in the tournament.

11. Michigan State (22-7, 12-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 14
Last Week: Defeated @ Indiana
This Week: Penn State, Michigan
Spartans are tied atop the Big Ten with Ohio State.

12. Pittsburgh (22-7, 11-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 12
Last Week: Lost @ Notre Dame, Defeated @ St. John’s
This Week: Providence, Rutgers
Panthers ran into the buzzstorm that is Notre Dame who are knocking off ranked teams – minus Luke Harangody – like it’s nothing special.

13. Vanderbilt (22-6, 11-3 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 16
Last Week: Defeated Georgia, @ Arkansas
This Week: @ Florida, South Carolina
Have I mentioned before how much I like Jermaine Beal’s game? Can be inconsistent, but when he’s on…

14. Georgetown (19-8, 9-7 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 11
Last Week: Defeated @ Louisville, Lost to Notre Dame
This Week: @ West Virginia, Cincinnati
Trying to figure out Georgetown is harder than quantum physics.

15. Tennessee (21-7, 9-5 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 19
Last Week: Lost to Florida, Defeated No. 2 Kentucky
This Week: Arkansas, @ Mississippi State
Just when I thought the Vols were a dead team…

16. Gonzaga (24-5, 12-2 WCC)
Pvs. AP: 18
Last Week: Defeated Santa Clara, San Francisco
This Week: CSU Bakersfield
All the Bulldogs are focused on is earning a spot in the first-second round pod in hometown Spokane.

17. Wisconsin (21-7, 11-5 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 17
Last Week: Defeated Northwestern, Indiana
This Week: Iowa, @ Illinois
Unassuming Badgers will enter the tournament just as that.

18. Texas A&M (20-8, 9-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 22
Last Week: Lost to @ No. 24 Baylor, Defeated No. 21 Texas
This Week: Oklahoma State, @ Oklahoma
Would not be shocked to see the Aggies slip into the Sweet 16.

19. Butler (26-4, 18-0 Horizon)
Pvs. AP: 15
Last Week: Defeated @ Valporaiso
This Week: Horizon League Tournament
Bulldogs’ regular season came to end Friday night. Now get ready for conference tournament. Bubble teams will keep a close eye on Horizon because Butler’s an at-large if they don’t win the tournament.

20. Temple (24-5, 12-2 A-10)
Pvs. AP: 20
Last Week: Defeated Dayton, @ La Salle
This Week: @ Saint Louis, George Washington
Owls may have dealt a fatal blow to Dayton’s at-large chances with that victory in the middle of the week.

21. BYU (26-4, 11-3 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 13
Last Week: Defeated San Diego State, Lost to No. 10 New Mexico
This Week: @ Utah, @ TCU
Remember, the Cougars will be playing on the first day of the tournament. BYU does not compete on Sundays.

22. Xavier (21-7, 12-2 A-10)
Pvs. AP: NR
Last Week: Defeated @ Saint Louis, No. 23 Richmond
This Week: @ Fordham, St. Bonaventure
Musketeers sit atop the A-10 with Temple after taking down Richmond in OT.

23. Baylor (22-6, 9-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 24
Last Week: Defeated @ No. 22 Texas A&M, @ Oklahoma
This Week: @ Texas Tech, No. 21 Texas
Bears in three-way tie for third place in the Big 12 with Missouri and A&M.

24. Louisville (19-10, 10-6 Big East)
Pvs. AP: NR
Last Week: Defeated No. 11 Georgetown, @ Connecticut
This Week: @ Marquette, No. 4 Syracuse
Cardinals have turned it on the last few weeks. Officially punched their ticket to the tournament with that win against Connecticut.

25. Texas (22-7, 8-6 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 21
Last Week: Defeated Oklahoma State, Lost to No. 22 Texas A&M
This Week: Oklahoma, @ No. 24 Baylor
If my memory serves me correctly, this was a national title contender, right? Injuries have decimated Longhorns like no other.

Others Who Just Missed The Cut (And In No Particular Order): Marquette, Notre Dame, UTEP

We’re a month away from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The stretch run is here. And things start off with a BracketBuster game that could go a very long way toward determining the fates of plenty of bubble teams.

Saturday

Siena at No. 18 Butler
KenPom: Butler -8
TV: ESPN2, 11 am
The biggest of all the BracketBuster games, although this matchup lost a little bit of its luster when the Saints fell to Niagara on the road last week. Butler seems like a sure bet to lock up an NCAA Tournament at-large bid should they not win the Horizon League Tournament. But the same can’t be said for Siena. If the Saints want to leave themselves any wiggle room than they’re going to need to knock off the Bulldogs because at this point in the season it looks like it’s MAAC Tournament champs or bust.

Xavier at Charlotte
KenPom: Xavier -7
TV: CBS College Sports, 2 pm
As quickly as Charlotte was on top of the A-10 they have been relegated to the middle of the pack and another conference loss might end any chance they have at winning the conference’s regular season title. Xavier sits at 9-2 in the league, tied with Temple, and one game behind conference leading Richmond. Charlotte, meanwhile, find itself in third place these days having dropped two straight and no longer are considered a safe bet to make the field of 65. They need to keep winning, preferably against teams that would look great on their resume (i.e. Xavier) because there’s no way the league’s going to get close to the 5-to-6 teams like into the dance some were predicting a few weeks ago.

Illinois at No. 4 Purdue
KenPom: Purdue -12
TV: ESPN, 4 pm
Remember when the Boilermakers had that three-game losing streak in early January and had seemingly fallen out of contention in the Big Ten? Well, thanks to eight straight wins in league play Purdue finds itself tied with Big Ten leader Michigan State in the loss column. No one is playing better right now in the conference than the Boilermakers and it has many starting to talk about this team being Final Four material. I’m not buying that considering how small the Boilermakers are up front. But they do have one hallmark of a championship team: Defense. Ken Pomeroy has the Boilermakers fourth in his adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.

No. 2 Kentucky at No. 17 Vanderbilt
KenPom: Kentucky -1
TV: ESPN, 6pm
Vanderbilt would like to have that game in Rupp Arena back. You remember it. The one they lost by 13 because of the Cats’ dominance a few weeks ago. Well, with revenge on the mind, the Commodores will look to pull even in the SEC East standings with the Wildcats. John Wall and company head to Nashville for their second straight road game after an emotional win Tuesday at Mississippi State. Vanderbilt’s going to have to figure out how to stop DeMarcus Cousins inside because they didn’t come close to containing the big man last time out. And it would help if A.J. Ogilvy, Vandy’s center, stayed out of foul trouble and was a little more assertive on the offensive end after attempting just four shots in that Jan. 30 game.

Others To Keep An Eye On: No. 21 Temple at Saint Joseph’s, Seton Hall at No. 8 West Virginia, No. 20 Tennessee at South Carolina, No. 22 Baylor at Oklahoma State, No. 15 Texas at Texas Tech, No. 7 Kansas State at Oklahoma, No. 13 Gonzaga at Pepperdine

Sunday

No. 3 Villanova at No. 19 Pittsburgh
KenPom: Pittsburgh -3
TV: CBS, Noon
How will Villanova bounce back from that upset loss to Connecticut Monday night? It’s not going to be easy as the Wildcats continue their death march through their heavily backloaded Big East schedule. The Panthers come into this one with recent wins over West Virginia and Marquette, having seemingly put those struggles from a few weeks ago behind them. Villanova needs this one to keep pace with Syracuse in the Big East standings.

No. 9 Ohio State at No. 11 Michigan State
KenPom: Michigan State -1
TV: CBS, Noon
This game could have been for first place in the Big Ten but Ohio State had to go and ruin things by losing to Purdue Wednesday night. But it’s not like the Buckeyes aren’t still in the race. Sitting just a game behind the Spartans, and half a game behind Purdue, Ohio State is in the thick of one of the most hotly contested races the conference has seen in recent memory. It’ll be fun to watch Evan Turner, the soon to be Big Ten Player of the Year (in my opinion), battle it out with Kalin Lucas, last year’s Big Ten Player of the Year.

Virginia Tech at No. 6 Duke
KenPom: Duke -13
TV: FSN, 7:45 pm
Duke will easily be a double-digit favorite when the lines are posted for this one because they’ve been annihilating everyone at home this season. Closest game in Cameron Indoor Stadium so far? A nine-point win over St. John’s back in December. But Virginia Tech currently sits at No. 2 in the ACC standings, just a game back in the loss column. I sincerely hope all the talk about the Hokies being a bubble team is over and done with. If they’re not a tournament team it’ll be a disgrace. But if they really want to silence all the critics, beating Duke on the road would be a hell of a way to do it.

Others To Keep An Eye On: Northwestern at No. 14 Wisconsin