The Double Bonus

It’s the last weekend of the regular season for the big conferences and Selection Sunday is just a week away. A few league titles are up for grabs and of course there will surely be plenty of bubble bursting action.

Saturday

No. 10 West Virginia at No. 9 Villanova
KenPom: Villanova -2
TV: CBS, 12 pm
Does Villanova has a shot at a No. 1 seed? Absolutely. And a season sweep of the Mountaineers would do wonders if the Wildcats are that hellbent on securing one of the NCAA Tournament’s top seeds. Nothing is really at stake in this one other than the Wildcats’ seeding. Both teams have double byes in next week’s Big East Tournament. Whoever wins the battle of the boards takes this one.

No. 22 Maryland at Virginia
KenPom: Maryland -7
TV: Raycom, 1:30 pm
Terps are coming off the big win against Duke and need a win over the Cavs to at least earn a share of the ACC title. No reason they shouldn’t get it against a Virginia team that hopes to make the NIT.

No. 2 Kansas at Missouri
KenPom: Kansas -2
TV: CBS, 2 pm
Kansas will look to cement its status as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament before it heads into the Big 12 Tournament. But in order to do that they’re going to have to beat hated-rival Missouri and do so in Columbia, which is no easy task.

No. 1 Syracuse at Louisville
KenPom: Syracuse -4
TV: ESPN, 2 pm
Louisville has in all likelihood wrapped up an NCAA Tournament bid but if they want to improve their seeding knocking off the nation’s top team would be a big help. Freedom Hall will host its final regular season game that will be sure to feature plenty of flashbacks and reminiscing. The place has a ton of history and deserves to go out in style. Remember that Louisville kicked off its push toward the dance with a win in Syracuse, but the Orange are looking to go undefeated on the road. Yes, you read that correctly.

Notre Dame at Marquette
KenPom: Marquette -8
TV: ESPN Full Court, 2 pm
Two NCAA Tournament teams here and that’s saying something because a few weeks ago both of these teams were fighting for their bubble lives. But since they’ve reeled off big win after big win coming down the stretch both will be dancing in two weeks. Marquette has won nine of its last 10 while Notre Dame comes in on a three-game winning streak. Expect Notre Dame big man Luke Harangody to miss another game.

No. 18 Tennessee at Mississippi State
KenPom: Mississippi State -3
TV: ESPN, 6 pm
The Bulldogs are on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament. A win over the Vols would do wonders for their chances. Probably wouldn’t cement an at-large bid but no matter what bracketologists across the country are saying about Mississippi State, this is an absolute must-win for the Bulldogs.

North Carolina at No. 4 Duke
KenPom: Duke -18
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
You know the situation. If Maryland beats UVa., then the onus is on Duke to take care of its arch-rival to earn a share of the ACC title. I doubt the Blue Devils are going to have much trouble with the Tar Heels. Just a hunch.

Bubble Busting Specials: Connecticut at USF, Saint Louis at Dayton, UAB at No. 24 UTEP

Others To Keep An Eye On: George Washington at No. 20 Temple, No. 7 Purdue at Penn State, Texas at No. 21 Baylor, St. Bonaventure at Xavier, Iowa State at No. 5 Kansas State, No. 14 BYU at TCU, Cal at Stanford

Sunday

Florida at No. 3 Kentucky
KenPom: Kentucky -11
TV: CBS, 12 pm
Florida’s bubble could officially burst – baring a huge run in the SEC Tournament – if they can’t win at Rupp. And we all know the chances of that happening are slim to almost none. So the Gators are seriously looking at a third straight NIT if something miraculous doesn’t happen on the road. Wonder how serious John Calipari will take this game considering the Wildcats have already locked down the SEC regular season title?

No. 15 Wisconsin at Illinois
KenPom: Wisconsin -4
TV: ESPN, 2 pm
This is an absolute must for the Illini. For the most part, all the prognosticators have Illinois out of the tournament. Opportunity is knocking at the door. Will the Illini answer?

Michigan at No. 11 Michigan State
KenPom: Michigan State -8
TV: CBS, 4 pm
The Spartans must take down their in-state rival to earn a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State. Michigan State just barely survived a close one with Penn State Thursday and the “struggles” at home continued. The Spartans are usually a very good home team but they narrowly avoided losing a third straight at the Breslin Center. Something seems to be off with the Spartans and I can’t quite put my finger on it. They need to turn it on ASAP.

Nary a non-conference game on the schedule this weekend as the nation’s top leagues hit their stretch run. Two more weeks until conference tournaments kick off. Three weeks until Selection Sunday.

Saturday

No. 2 Kentucky at No. 19 Tennessee
KenPom: Kentucky -1
TV: CBS, Noon
Tennessee looks like its limping toward the finish line, having taken a few steps back in the national picture over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Kentucky just keeps rolling over weaker opponents. Now chances are the Wildcats aren’t going to blow out the Vols in Knoxville like they did when the two met Feb. 13 in Rupp. Tennessee’s going to come to play because Kentucky always gets every team’s best shot. But it doesn’t help the Vols that their best player – center Wayne Chism – is banged up and the Vols might be very lucky to get 25 minutes out of the big man.

Cincinnati at No. 8 West Virginia
KenPom: West Virginia -13
TV: Local, 2 pm
If Cincy wants to assure itself of an NCAA Tournament berth then beating the Mountaineers in Morgantown is a must. If you go by Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket projections, the Bearcats are one of the first four teams out of the Tournament. Let’s hope the whole angle of Bob Huggins facing his old school goes by the wayside because it’s beyond played out. But surprisingly, or maybe not so surprising at all, Huggins is fourth among active coaches in career wins with 660 behind the likes of Coach K, Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun. WVU will be looking to snap a two-game skid.

No. 10 New Mexico at No. 13 BYU
KenPom: BYU -12
TV: Versus, 4 pm
First place in the conference is on the line when the Lobos visit Provo for a Mountain West showdown and the winner most likely will take the league’s regular season title. So this one means something. BYU is the MWC’s top offensive squad while New Mexico has arguably the conference best player in Darrington Hobson, a 6-foot-7 scorer. Although Cougars fans would easily argue that Jimmer Fredette should own that title considering he’s leading the conference in scoring and is second in assists. New Mexico ended BYU’s 15-game winning streak when the two met earlier this year so you’ve got the whole revenge angle working in this one.

No. 1 Kansas at Oklahoma State
KenPom: Kansas -9
TV: CBS, 4 pm
Will the Jayhawks lose a Big 12 game? Oklahoma State is not an easy place to play but this is Kansas’ “easiest” game left on the schedule. Another showdown with Kansas State at home looms in four days after the meeting with the Cowboys. Then a trip to Columbia for another blood battle with Missouri. So if Kansas is going to get caught napping it’s going to come against the Cowboys. K-State and Missouri might knock off Kansas, but losing to either of those two wouldn’t be a surprise. Oklahoma State would.

Missouri at No. 6 Kansas State
KenPom: Kansas State -5
TV: ESPNU, 8 pm
Speaking of the Tigers and Wildcats…Interesting matchup between these two and an even more important game for K-State. Some think the Wildcats possibly have a chance at earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament but if they want to make that a reality losing to Missouri is not an option.

No. 7 Villanova at No. 4 Syracuse
KenPom: Syracuse -8
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
Biggest matchup of the year in the Big East. Conference leading Syracuse will have 34,00-plus fans rocking the Carrier Dome like it’s never been rocked before. The Orange can pretty much put a ribbon on the Big East regular season title with a win and lock in a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Touranment. Villanova, sitting a game behind the Orange, has its eyes on securing a No. 1 seed in the Tournament but it would most likely require a win here. Villanova’s offense is shifty and athletic enough to battle that Syracuse 2-3 zone. It’ll be strength against strength Saturday night and by far the most intriguing game of the weekend.

Others To Keep An Eye On: Notre Dame at No. 11 Georgetown, No. 12 Pittsburgh at St. John’s, No. 16 Vanderbilt at Arkansas, No. 24 Baylor at Oklahoma, No. 21 Texas at No. 22 Texas A&M

Sunday

No. 23 Richmond at Xavier
KenPom: Xavier -8
TV: ESPN2, 1 pm
Loser of this one drops a game behind the other two Atlantic 10 leaders (we’re assuming Temple takes care of LaSalle later Sunday) and most likely drops out of the race of the regular season title.

Louisville at Connecticut
KenPom: Connecticut -4
TV: CBS, 2 pm
Big game for both teams. Connecticut is tenuously in the field of 65 right now after some impressive wins over the last week, including two against Top 10 Big East teams. Louisville’s in as well, but both are No. 12 seeds which means they’re teetering on the verge of dropping out of the bracket. Louisville probably needs this game more for its resume considering it only has two wins over teams in the Top 50 of the RPI. But UConn needs more quality wins since it only has three victories over the RPI Top 50. Both teams come in having won three of their last four.

No. 14 Michigan State at No. 3 Purdue
KenPom: Purdue -9
TV: CBS, 4 pm
Huge game in the Big Ten. Boilermakers own a one-game lead over the Spartans in the conference standings but with no Robbie Hummel few are expecting Purdue to emerge with the regular season title when it’s all said and done. Can Purdue beat Michigan State without Hummel? Yes, they can. But the long term prognosis for the Boilermakers is not good without their second leading scorer not to mention their heart and soul. The sting of that injury is going to stay with Purdue for a long time. Don’t be surprised if there’s a bit of a hangover. But they will be buoyed by the home crowd in Mackey Arena. E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson are going to have to pick up some of the slack, mainly the 15.7  ppg Hummel was averaging. Side story to all of this will be Purdue’s NCAA Tournament seeding and how much of a hit it takes over the final weeks of the season and how heavily the selection committee weighs Hummel’s injury. Purdue had No. 1 seed potential. Not anymore.

Others To Keep An Eye On: Marquette at Seton Hall, No. 5 Duke at Virginia

We’re a month away from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The stretch run is here. And things start off with a BracketBuster game that could go a very long way toward determining the fates of plenty of bubble teams.

Saturday

Siena at No. 18 Butler
KenPom: Butler -8
TV: ESPN2, 11 am
The biggest of all the BracketBuster games, although this matchup lost a little bit of its luster when the Saints fell to Niagara on the road last week. Butler seems like a sure bet to lock up an NCAA Tournament at-large bid should they not win the Horizon League Tournament. But the same can’t be said for Siena. If the Saints want to leave themselves any wiggle room than they’re going to need to knock off the Bulldogs because at this point in the season it looks like it’s MAAC Tournament champs or bust.

Xavier at Charlotte
KenPom: Xavier -7
TV: CBS College Sports, 2 pm
As quickly as Charlotte was on top of the A-10 they have been relegated to the middle of the pack and another conference loss might end any chance they have at winning the conference’s regular season title. Xavier sits at 9-2 in the league, tied with Temple, and one game behind conference leading Richmond. Charlotte, meanwhile, find itself in third place these days having dropped two straight and no longer are considered a safe bet to make the field of 65. They need to keep winning, preferably against teams that would look great on their resume (i.e. Xavier) because there’s no way the league’s going to get close to the 5-to-6 teams like into the dance some were predicting a few weeks ago.

Illinois at No. 4 Purdue
KenPom: Purdue -12
TV: ESPN, 4 pm
Remember when the Boilermakers had that three-game losing streak in early January and had seemingly fallen out of contention in the Big Ten? Well, thanks to eight straight wins in league play Purdue finds itself tied with Big Ten leader Michigan State in the loss column. No one is playing better right now in the conference than the Boilermakers and it has many starting to talk about this team being Final Four material. I’m not buying that considering how small the Boilermakers are up front. But they do have one hallmark of a championship team: Defense. Ken Pomeroy has the Boilermakers fourth in his adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.

No. 2 Kentucky at No. 17 Vanderbilt
KenPom: Kentucky -1
TV: ESPN, 6pm
Vanderbilt would like to have that game in Rupp Arena back. You remember it. The one they lost by 13 because of the Cats’ dominance a few weeks ago. Well, with revenge on the mind, the Commodores will look to pull even in the SEC East standings with the Wildcats. John Wall and company head to Nashville for their second straight road game after an emotional win Tuesday at Mississippi State. Vanderbilt’s going to have to figure out how to stop DeMarcus Cousins inside because they didn’t come close to containing the big man last time out. And it would help if A.J. Ogilvy, Vandy’s center, stayed out of foul trouble and was a little more assertive on the offensive end after attempting just four shots in that Jan. 30 game.

Others To Keep An Eye On: No. 21 Temple at Saint Joseph’s, Seton Hall at No. 8 West Virginia, No. 20 Tennessee at South Carolina, No. 22 Baylor at Oklahoma State, No. 15 Texas at Texas Tech, No. 7 Kansas State at Oklahoma, No. 13 Gonzaga at Pepperdine

Sunday

No. 3 Villanova at No. 19 Pittsburgh
KenPom: Pittsburgh -3
TV: CBS, Noon
How will Villanova bounce back from that upset loss to Connecticut Monday night? It’s not going to be easy as the Wildcats continue their death march through their heavily backloaded Big East schedule. The Panthers come into this one with recent wins over West Virginia and Marquette, having seemingly put those struggles from a few weeks ago behind them. Villanova needs this one to keep pace with Syracuse in the Big East standings.

No. 9 Ohio State at No. 11 Michigan State
KenPom: Michigan State -1
TV: CBS, Noon
This game could have been for first place in the Big Ten but Ohio State had to go and ruin things by losing to Purdue Wednesday night. But it’s not like the Buckeyes aren’t still in the race. Sitting just a game behind the Spartans, and half a game behind Purdue, Ohio State is in the thick of one of the most hotly contested races the conference has seen in recent memory. It’ll be fun to watch Evan Turner, the soon to be Big Ten Player of the Year (in my opinion), battle it out with Kalin Lucas, last year’s Big Ten Player of the Year.

Virginia Tech at No. 6 Duke
KenPom: Duke -13
TV: FSN, 7:45 pm
Duke will easily be a double-digit favorite when the lines are posted for this one because they’ve been annihilating everyone at home this season. Closest game in Cameron Indoor Stadium so far? A nine-point win over St. John’s back in December. But Virginia Tech currently sits at No. 2 in the ACC standings, just a game back in the loss column. I sincerely hope all the talk about the Hokies being a bubble team is over and done with. If they’re not a tournament team it’ll be a disgrace. But if they really want to silence all the critics, beating Duke on the road would be a hell of a way to do it.

Others To Keep An Eye On: Northwestern at No. 14 Wisconsin

It’s another full two days of conference showdowns with a few non-conference games to keep an eye on. Here’s our breakdown of Saturday’s and Sunday’s can’t miss contests.

Saturday

Maryland's Greivis Vasquez. (AP)

Maryland at No. 8 Duke
KenPom: Duke -9
TV: CBS, 1 pm
Battle for first place in the ACC. Both teams have two losses in the league but the Terps are going to have a very hard time knocking off the Blue Devils in Cameron Indoor Stadium because Duke has basically been invincible at home. Maryland continues to fly under the radar and it just may feature the ACC’s best player in Greivis Vasquez, but can it go toe-to-toe with Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer for 40 minutes? Lot of people would tell you that Duke has the superior talent – and they’re probably right. But Maryland has played well on the road this year and has done a pretty good job of matching up against teams that appear to have the upper hand. They definitely have the offense to stick around with Duke. I would not be surprised at all if the Terps pulled off the upset. And Duke may want to win to keep its coach around. (Kidding.)

Missouri at No. 24 Baylor
KenPom: Baylor -3
TV: ESPN360.com, 1:45 pm
We know who’s going to win the Big 12. But how about second place where the lucky winner can avoid meeting Kansas until the Big 12 Tournament championship game? That’s basically what’s up for grabs here between the Tigers and the Bears. Three teams are 6-3 in conference play and Missouri’s one of them (K-State and A&M are the others) while Baylor sits at 5-4. A loss wouldn’t ruin Missouri’s chances of a second place finish. The same can’t be said for Baylor.

Rhode Island at No. 21 Temple
KenPom: Temple -6
TV: Cox Sports, 4 pm
There’s a three-way tie atop the Atlantic 10 that doesn’t include either of these two teams. Both just got beat by Richmod (one of the league leaders) and both could use a confidence boosting win. But in terms of really needing this one that distinction clearly falls to Rhode Island. Another loss for the Rams and they would drop to 7-4 in the conference, right along side Dayton, one of many NCAA Tournament bubble teams. Temple took this season’s earlier matchup,  a four-point win in OT up in Rhode Island.

Xavier at Florida
KenPom: Florida -1
TV: ESPN, 6 pm
Florida really needs a win for its tournament resume and getting one against the Musketeers would be a big help.  Xavier is probably a safe bet right now to earn an at-large, but they too could use a boost to their resume. Both teams have just one win over a team in the RPI top 25. They both need to start padding – and fast.

No. 12 Tennessee at No. 3 Kentucky
KenPom: Kentucky -9
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
The marquee matchup of the weekend. College GameDay will be in Rupp Arena where they’re expecting the place to be sold out for the pregame show. Tennessee could have made this game a whole lot more interesting had they beaten Vanderbilt earlier in the week. Had that been the case, this game would have been for first place in the SEC East. But as is, Kentucky has a one-game advantage on Vandy and a two-game advantage over the Vols. If Tennessee wants to have any chance against the Wildcats they’re going to have the rebound the ball. Only way you can really see Kentucky losing this one is if it beats itself. Tennessee just doesn’t have the firepower – especially on the road – to stick with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and the rest of John Calipri’s crew.

Others To Look Out For: Cincinnati at Connecticut, Virginia at Virginia Tech, South Florida at Marquette

Louisville at No. 2 Syracuse
KenPom: Syracuse -12
TV: ESPN, 1 pm
Louisville could be in a tough spot here with all the turmoil and rumorssurrounding coach Rick Pitino. They got hammered in Madison Square Garden Thursday night vs. St. John’s and now have a relatively quick turnaround to get ready for the Orange in the Carrier Dome. But Louisville has the kind of talent that could give Syracuse some trouble. Hey, if UConn was able to figure out how to beat the 2-3 zone Wednesday why can’t Louisville?
No. 13 Ohio State at Illinois
KenPom: Ohio State -1
TV: CBS, 1 pm
The Big Ten is seriously up for grabs when just two weeks ago it looked like Michigan State was going to cruise to a reguar season title. But one Kalin Lucas injury later, on top of a few Illini upsets, the conference is ripe fo the taking. Both the Illini and Buckeyes are 9-3 in the league, tied with the Spartans, while Purdue sits a half-game back at 8-3. So this one is big. Illinois has reeled off five straight wins, including an impressive victory in Wisconsin earlier in the week. But have fun trying to contain Ohio State’s Evan Turner.

It’s another full two days of conference showdowns with a few non-conference games to keep an eye on. Here’s our breakdown of Saturday’s and Sunday’s can’t miss contests.

Saturday

Villanova guard Scottie Reynolds. (AP)

No. 2 Villanova at No. 7 Georgetown
KenPom: Georgetown -3
TV: ESPN, 12 pm
Biggest game of the day starts things off. This is Villanova’s first true test since they hosted the Hoyas Jan. 17 and it comes on the road. This is the first in a number of rough and tough road games for the Wildcats. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule so far, but after G’town it picks up in a big way with trips to West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse and Cincinnati. It’ll be interesting to see if the Hoyas can put that bad loss at home to USF Wednesday behind them. In this one, they’ll have the size advantage, starting with Greg Monroe. But the matchup everyone will zero in on will be Chris Wright vs. Scottie Reynolds. Wright won’t be able to match Reynolds offensive prowess – few can – but he can hold his own in the backcourt. I think this one will depend on how well the Wildcats can defend Monroe underneath and whether or not the Hoyas can keep the Wildcats from driving incessantly to the basket.

Xavier at Dayton
KenPom: Xavier -1
TV: ESPN2, 12 pm
Huge Atlantic 10 battle. Xavier already beat Dayton earlier this season and the sentiment surrounding this one is Dayton can probably kiss goodbye any notion of an at-large bid should they lose. Dayton’s NCAA Tournament resume is not all that impressive and they need to rack up a few more notable wins ASAP. Beating Xavier would certainly qualify because barring a collapse the Musketeers should find themselves dancing no matter what happens in the A-10 Tournament.

No. 19 Temple at Richmond
KenPom: Richmond -1
TV: ESPNU, 2 pm
Another big one in the A-10. Not for the reasons above but for how much of an impact this game will have on the conference standings. Xavier leads the league with an 8-1 mark while Temple sits a half game behind, along with Charlotte, at 7-1. Richmond’s in that next tier with Rhode Island, sitting at 6-2 in league play.

No. 16 Wisconsin at Michigan
KenPom: Wisconsin -5
TV: CBS, 4 pm
Wisconsin comes off that stirring victory over Michigan State to face a team they’ve owned recently. The Badgers haven’t lost to the Wolverines in eight games. And chances are that streak will only continue Saturday in Ann Arbor. But keep in mind that Wisconsin has lost three straight road games while they’re a perfect 13-0 at home this season. Then again, considering many feel Michigan has already quit on coach John Beilein why wouldn’t you pick Wisconsin to win this one. Since these two first met Jan. 20th, Michigan has lost four of five.

No. 9 Texas at Oklahoma
KenPom: Texas -11
TV: ESPN, 4 pm
This is basically a tuneup game for the Longhorns. At least it should be. They put their recent bad play behind them with a victory against Oklahoma State on the road earlier this week. No come the Sooners who shouldn’t present that much of a challenge for Texas. That is if the Longhorns aren’t caught overlooking OU because Monday night top-ranked Kansas comes strolling into Austin for a truly big Big Monday matchup. Legit Final Four contenders take care of business in this spot. Will Texas?

No. 17 Gonzaga at Memphis
KenPom: Memphis -5
TV: ESPN2, 4 pm
Memphis needs this game in the worst kind of way. The Tigers only “impressive” win came against UAB, No. 28 in the latest RPI rankings. But Gonzaga could use a quality road victory to improve its resume. It’s a quick turnaround for Gonzaga. They just beat Portland Thursday night then had to fly all the way to Memphis Friday morning. The Tigers are 4-0 against Gonzaga over the past four seasons, but these aren’t the same John Calipari led Tigers. They’re not even close.

No. 12 BYU at UNLV
KenPom: BYU -3
TV: Versus, 4 pm
Big one in the Mountain West. BYU owns a one-game lead over UNLV and New Mexico in the conference standings, but remember that New Mexico currently owns the tie-breaker against BYU thanks to their win over the Cougars two weeks ago. UNLV owns the tie-breaker against the Lobos thanks to the Rebels victory on the road Jan. 9. So there are a number of subplots in this one, not the least of which is revenge. Back in Provo last month, UNLV nearly handed BYU a loss, holding MWC leading scorer Jimmer Fredette well below his season average. BYU hasn’t won in Vegas since 2005.

Cal at UCLA
KenPom: Cal -9
TV: CBS, 4 pm
Clearly no one wants to win the Pac-10 because we have a four-way tie atop the standings after Thursday night’s action. Just when you think Cal is about to take control they allow a 25-0 run to USC and fall to the Trojans. Their poor execution, especially down the stretch, cost them a win they should have had and now they have to face a tougher than advertised Bruins team in Pauley Pavilion. Would not be the least bit surprised to see this disappointing Cal team go 0-2 on their L.A. swing.

Tennessee F/C Wayne Chism. (AP)

South Carolina at No. 14 Tennessee
KenPom: Tennessee -9
TV: ESPN, 6 pm
Tennessee only beat the SEC’s worst team by five points and now they’re going to have to contend with scoring sensation Devan Downey. Downey became a national name with his 30-point performance against Kentucky a few weeks back, but he hasn’t stopped torching teams. The PG is averaging 31.6 ppg in conference play, clearly the most dangerous scorer in the conference. But the Vols have done a pretty good job containing Downey during his career. including two sub-20 point games last season. As we’ve said before, it’s all about Wayne Chism for Tennessee. As he goes, so go the Vols. And since this is only one of two home games for the Vols over the next three weeks, they’d be wise to capitalize.

Seton Hall at No. 22 Pittsburgh
KenPom: Pittsburgh -5
TV: ESPN Full Court, 6 pm
Big game for both teams. Pitt can’t buy a win, having lost four of their last five (they’re definitely tumbling out of the Top 25 come Monday) while Seton Hall is still looking to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume. And surprisingly, the Pirates will be gunning for their first season sweep of the Panthers in 16 years after upsetting Pitt Jan. 24th. Pitt shot just 35.3 percent from the field in that game and turned it over almost religiously. At home, you’d have to think those numbers would improve.

No. 5 Michigan State at Illinois
KenPom: Michigan State -1
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
Will he or won’t he? We’re talking about Kalin Lucas, of course. The Spartans PG went down in the second half of their loss to Wisconsin Wednesday with a sprained ankle and as of Friday evening it looks like Lucas won’t be able to play. Not having Lucas is a big deal for the Spartans because he pretty much carries the team at times and no one nationally has been as clutch. Michigan State is hoping it can pull out a win on the road and maintain a two-game lead over Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State and the Illini.

UTEP forward Derrick Caracter. (AP)

Tulsa at UTEP
KenPom: UTEP -7
TV: ESPN2, 10 pm
This game will easily get swept aside in the grand scheme of things, but it’s kind of important in C-USA because winner will take over first place in the league. Both teams sit at 7-1 and both teams feature many of the same strengths. Considering many believe C-USA to be a one-bid league this year, the importance of this one is only magnified.

Sunday

Iowa at No. 13 Ohio State
KenPom: Ohio State -20
TV: Big Ten Network, 12 pm
The only reason to keep an eye on this one: Evan Turner’s stat line. The POY candidate should put up some big numbers when Ohio State dusts the Hawkeyes at home. The Buckeyes are shooting 54 percent at home this year, 42 percent from 3.

North Carolina at Maryland
KenPom: Maryland -13
TV: FSN, 12 pm
North Carolina hasn’t been a bubble team for a few weeks, if you ask me, but if they want to return to that tenuous status then it would help by getting a rare road win against the Terps. Because teams with only one true road win usually don’t make the Tournament. Maryland is tied in the loss column with ACC leading Duke, but losing to the Tar Heels would seriously damage their precious postseason hopes.

No. 3 Syracuse at Cincinnati
KenPom: Syracuse -7
TV: ESPN Full Court, 2 pm
Could Syracuse be playing for the No. 1 ranking in this game? They’d need Kansas to shockingly fall at home, and of course a Villanova loss. It’s a possibility, but it’s also a possibility that the Orange fall to Cincy. Syracuse has played some close games away from the Dome, including last week’s two-point win over DePaul.