The Double Bonus

The weekend came and went without much in the way of news. You weren’t expecting any earth-shaking results from the first weekend of the season, were you?

Sure, there were a few surprising results such as Wake Forest, Iowa and Charlotte losing games they should have easily won. But for the most part, it was status quo. Duke pounded Princeton, Purdue took care of Howard and Syracuse had its way with Canisius, which, by the way, marked Jim Boeheim’s 831st career win, good enough for fifth place all-time.

All in all, it was a pretty uneventful first weekend of the season. So uneventful, in fact, there was very little change in the Top 25. So onto other business…

Links

If you missed it, Florida State’s Chris Singleton recorded a triple-double Sunday. [Tallahassee Democrat]

Jeff Goodman with a poignant story about Houston Baptist’s assistant coach, Steve Key. [FoxSports.com]

In the biggest game of the early season, Kansas State big man Curtis Kelly might miss Tuesday’s game with Virginia Tech. [Kansas City Star]

Marquette had a little more trouble with Bucknell than anyone expected. [Milwaukee Journal Sentinel]

Tonight’s Must See Games

Tulane at No. 20 Georgetown
Line: Georgetown -21.5
KenPom: Georgetown -18
TV: 7 pm
Georgetown comes off a hard-fought win on the road against Old Dominion Friday as the Hoyas hit the road for their season opener. Now they get Tulane at home and debut their Greg Monroe-less three guard lineup for their loyal supporters. Hoyas fans shouldn’t worry about this one. The Green Wave are coming off an 8-22 season and haven’t beaten a Top 25 opponent in 11 years.

Valparaiso at No. 8 Kansas
Line: Kansas -21.5
KenPom: Kansas -19
TV: ESPN3, 7 pm
The Jayhawks enter with the nation’s longest home winning streak and there’s no reason why it won’t extend to 61 after tonight. Kansas coach Bill Shelf wants to see a bigger commitment on the defensive end after he watched his team give up 75 in the season opener to Longwood. Valpo, which struggled rebounding in its season opener against NAIA Indiana-Northwest, will have its hands full against the bigger and more athletic Jayhawks.

Miami at No. 19 Memphis
Line: Memphis -6.5
KenPom: Memphis -9
TV: ESPN, 12 am
The Tigers and Canes start things off for ESPN’s Tip-Off Marathon which begins a 24-hour cycle of non-stop games. Seriously, there will be games on at least one of the network’s channels for the entire day, including games that tips-off on the East Coast at 6 am (Stony Brook-Monmouth). As for this game, Memphis will play with the controversy surrounding Jelan Kendrick’s departure from school. This should be a good test for the Tigers who will face a Canes team that returns a number of players with significant experience.

The season officially got underway Monday, but college basketball – for all intents and purposes – really begins Friday because literally the entire nation is playing tonight.

Seriously, got take a look at the schedule.

That being said, there aren’t any marquee, can’t miss matchups. Pretty much take tonight and the subsequent weekend games to become familiar with your favorite team’s new starting fives. You’re really not going to get much else out of the action.

So we won’t bother running down any games (if you must, CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish looks at things) and instead we’ll go right to the links because pageviews are good for everyone.

The biggest news of the last few days is that incoming Kentucky big man, Enes Kanter, has been ruled permanently ineligible by the NCAA. Coach John Calipari and the Wildcats plan to appeal the ruling. Yet another short-sighted, boorish decision handed down by those frauds running the NCAA. I agree with Jay Bilas’s take on the matter: If the kid wants to be a college student why not let him. ESPN.com has the story covered from a few different angles.

Luke Winn debuts his power rankings and it’s no surprise who is sitting on top. [SI.com]

The Dagger looks at college hoops through the BCS prism. [Yahoo.com]

Indiana picked up a big commitment the other day when Cody Zeller said he would be taking his talents to Bloomington. [USA Today]

Ten programs to keep an eye on over the next few years. [ESPN.com]

UConn got a big commitment from Ryan Boatright. Could his teammate follow him to Storrs? [Beyond The Arc]

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Tuesday.

Links

The season got underway Monday night and the biggest story was No. 20 Tennessee dropping an exhibition game, at home nonetheless, to Division II Indianapolis. As shocking as that result was, Gary Parrish says you shouldn’t go crazy over a game that means nothing. [CBSSports.com]

And speaking of unexpected upsets, Syracuse gets a crack at LeMoyne Tuesday night, hoping to avoid a second straight loss to the D-II program. [Syracuse Post-Standard]

It’s a football story, but still relevant to basketball. Big East expansion and the merits of adding TCU. Brett McMurphy takes a closer look at the pros and cons. [FanHouse]

URI gave No. 5 Pitt all it could handle in the season opener Monday night. Andy Katz was on the scene. [ESPN.com]

My NYC baseball buddy Luke Winn checks in on Temple and the Owls’ Sweet 16 aspirations. [SI.com]

The always entertaining Forde Minutes makes its season debut. [ESPN.com]

UConn picked up a big commitment in Ryan Boatright. Our own Neill Ostrout with the story. [Conn Post]

The first bracket of the season from Bracketville, SI’s Andy Glock and Jerry Palm.

No official games until Wednesday. Tuesday’s a night for exhibitions and hopefully one or two absurd upsets.

With the season officially kicking off Monday evening, it’s time to put some season predictions on the record. So here’s a quick look at the six major conferences and a few of the more high profile mid-majors, running down the projected champion, sleeper team, player and freshman of the year in each.

ACC
Champion: Duke
Don’t Sleep On: Virginia Tech
Player of the Year: Kyle Singler, Duke
Freshman of the Year: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Georgetown's Austin Freeman averaged 16.5 ppg last season. (AP)

Big East
Champion: Villanova
Don’t Sleep On: Syracuse
Player of the Year: Austin Freeman, Georgetown
Freshman of the Year: Fab Melo, Syracuse

Big Ten
Champion: Michigan State
Don’t Sleep On: Wisconsin
Player of the Year: Jon Leuer, Wisconsin
Freshman of the Year: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Big 12
Champion: Kansas State
Don’t Sleep On: Missouri
Player of the Year: Marcus Morris, Kansas
Freshman of the Year: Cory Joseph, Texas

Pac-10
Champion: Washington
Don’t Sleep On: Arizona
Player of the Year: Isiah Thomas, Washington
Freshman of the Year: Keala King, Arizona State

SEC
Champion: Florida
Don’t Sleep On: Georgia
Player of the Year: Trey Tompkins, Georgia
Freshman of the Year: Tobias Harris, Tennessee

Atlantic 10
Champion: Temple
Don’t Sleep On: Richmond
Player of the Year: Lavoy Allen, Temple
Freshman of the Year: Juwan Staten, Dayton

CAA
Champion: Old Dominion
Don’t Sleep On: VCU
Player of the Year: Denzel Bowles, James Madison
Freshman of the Year: It’s a needle in a haystack situation down there.

C-USA
Champion: Memphis
Don’t Sleep On: Southern Miss
Player of the Year: Gary Flower, Southern Miss
Freshman of the Year: Joe Jackson, Memphis

Mountain West
Champion: BYU
Don’t Sleep On: San Diego State
Player of the Year: Jimmer Fredette, BYU
Freshman of the Year: Kendall Williams, New Mexico

WCC
Champion: Gonzaga
Don’t Sleep On: Loyola Marymount
Player of the Year: Mickey McConnell, Saint Mary’s
Freshman of the Year: Sam Dower, Gonzaga

NCAA Tournament Seeds

1. Duke
1. Pittsburgh
1. Michigan State
1. Kansas State

2. Kansas
2. Villanova
2. Florida
2. Kentucky

3. Ohio State
3. Memphis
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin

4. North Carolina
4. Temple
4. Gonzaga
4. Baylor

Indeed. It’s about that time.

The 2010-11 college basketball season kicks off next week and instead of writing a 1,000 long winded previews on the 300-plus teams and endless number of conferences that just about everyone else out there has already written, I figured I’d look at things a little differently.

Based on the odds, of course.

So here’s a look at how the guys out in Vegas have handicapped the race to win the 2011 NCAA Tournament with a quick breakdown of each team’s chances.

Duke senior Kyle Singler avearged 17.7 points per game last year. (AP)

Duke
10-11 Odds: 4-1
Last Year: National Champs (35-5)
Key Returnees: Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, The Plumlee Brothers
Why They Can Win It All: Well, aside from bringing back Singler and Smith, you may have heard about this freshman that Coach K is raving about. Does the name Kyrie Irving ring a bell? He’s a point guard? Nothing? If you don’t know him you will shortly. Cutting to the chase, the Blue Devils are just plan loaded.
Why They Won’t Win It All: A freshman point guard? Other than that you’re really are grabbing at straws to find a reason why the Blue Devils won’t repeat.

Kentucky
10-11 Odds: 8-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (35-3)
Key Returnees: Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins
Why They Can Win It All: John Calipari lost a ton of talent from last year’s team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe were all one-and-done. But that hasn’t stopped Calipari from bringing in another awesome class of impact freshmen, led by Brandon Knight, Cal’s next big-impact freshman point guard, and Enes Kanter, a European big man who may have to sit some games before he’s allowed to suit up.
Why They Won’t Win It All: I said throughout last year that Kentucky’s inexperience would cost them in the NCAA Tournament and it did dearly against West Virginia. Same rule applies with this year’s team.

Michigan State
10-11 Odds: 9-1
Last Year: Final Four
Key Returnees: Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers
Why They Can Win It All: A healthy Lucas is one of the most clutch players in the nation and this team returns a ton of experience having been to two straight Final Fours. Plus, this being a Tom Izzo team, you know they’re going to be one of the nation’s best defensive teams.
Why They Won’t Win It All: The loss of Raymar Logan will be significant along with the dismissal of Chris Allen. Health will be the biggest issue for the Spartans. Stay healthy and this team should make it to its third straight Final Four.

Kansas State
10-11 Odds: 10-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (29-8)
Key Returnees: Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels
Why They Can Win It All: A great core returns, led by Pullen, one of the top point guards in the country, and they have some big bodies who can score and rebound underneath. Head coach Frank Martin likes his class of sophomores and expects big contributions from them.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Pullen is transitioning back to the point guard spot after the Wildcats lost the services of Denis Clemente. Expectations have never been higher for K-State. While this is an experienced team, can they handle the increased pressure following last year’s run to a regional final?

Memphis
10-11 Odds: 13-1
Last Year: NIT (24-10)
Key Returnees: Will Coleman, Wesley Witherspoon
Why They Can Win It All: Ask the experts and many will tell you that Memphis – and not Kentucky or North Carolina or Duke – has the top freshman class in the nation. With the likes of Joe Jackson and Chris Crawford, there’s a lot to be excited about with the Tigers. The wing play should be overwhelming and controlling the boards, which was a big problem last year, should be significantly improved this year.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Inexperience at so many key positions and while the non-conference schedule is impressive with games against Kansas, Georgetown, Tennessee and Gonzaga, C-USA will once again be underwhelming meaning the Tigers will be relatively lightly tested by the time they get to March.

North Carolina
10-11 Odds: 13-1
Last Year: NIT (20-17)
Key Returnees: Ed Davis, Marcus Ginyard, Deon Thompson
Why They Can Win It All: The Tar Heels are bringing in the nation’s top freshman in Harrison Barnes who some have already tabbed as the player of the year. High praise, indeed, but Barnes is going to have a huge impact. So will freshman Reggie Bullock whose shooting range will give defenses big problems. The nightmare season of last year is behind them and all the Injuries and inexperience are in the rear view mirror.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Frontcourt depth will be an issue with the Heels. And just like Kentucky, relying on freshmen to deliver when the going gets tough can be a recipe for disaster.

Purdue
10-11 Odds: 15-1
Last Year: Sweet 16 (29-5)
Key Returnees: E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson
Why They Can Win It All: Moore and Johnson are a dynamic duo up front for the Boilermakers but let’s be serious about their odds…
Why They Won’t Win It All: No Robbie Hummel means no real shot at the Final Four. The Boilermakers heart and soul was on his way to making a comeback from season-ending knee surgery late last season but the forward re-injured the knee – in the first practice of the new season – and should miss the entire season. A crushing blow to a team that pretty much had it’s title hopes dashed on Day 1.

Texas
10-11 Odds: 15-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 1st Round (24-10)
Key Returnees: J’Covan Brown, Jordan Hamilton, Dogus Balbay
Why They Can Win It All: N/A
Why They Won’t Win It All: At 15-1, Vegas is being very, very generous with the Longhorns. Truth be told, this team really should be in the 25-1 range. They’re not that good. Rick Barnes is coming off his self-described worst coaching job of his career plus three of the team’s top four scorers from last season are gone.

Villanova's Corey Fisher avearged 13.3 points per game last season.

Villanova
10-11 Odds: 16-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (25-8)
Key Returnees: Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, Antonio Pena
Why They Can Win It All: The Wildcats appear to be the cream of the Big East crop with yet another ultra-talented backcourt led by Fisher and Stokes. Fisher will probably handle most of the point guard duties while Stokes will thrive on the wing. When the Wildcats are hitting their shots they’re going to be ridiculously tough to take down. Motivation should be high after last year’s very disappointing exit in the second round of the Tournament.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Defense was an issue with the Wildcats last year and it probably will be this year. As offensively talented as Villanova is – despite not having Scottie Reynolds – they’re decidedly lacking on the defensive end. Head coach Jay Wright will have to develop some defensive toughness with this team after it was sorely missing last year.

Pittsburgh
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (25-9)
Key Returnees: Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown
Why They Can Win It All: I wouldn’t say that Pitt overachieved last year, but let’s just say the kind of regular season the Panthers put together wasn’t expected. Pitt returns just about all of its scoring from last year and expect really big things from Wanamaker who moves over from the three spot to the two. Jamie Dixon is probably the most underrated coach in a BCS conference. If you don’t believe me, just check out his winning percentage in Big East play.
Why They Won’t Win It All: The Panthers always seem to underachieve. Despite Dixon’s regular season brilliance in his seven seasons at the helm, Pitt hasn’t gotten to the next level, i.e. the Final Four. And keep an eye on frontcourt play. The bodies down low aren’t gong to overwhelm the nation’s best and they showed last year that they can be maddeningly inconsistent.

Kansas
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: NCAA Tournament 2nd Round (33-3)
Key Returnees: Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, The Morris Twins
Why They Can Win It All: The Jayhawks have plenty of talent this year, so what’s new? Josh Selby is the freshman to look out for in the backcourt, although Selby still isn’t cleared to play yet. A lot will be expected of the Morris boys who will have to step up into the considerable leadership void. Truth be told, there are more reasons to say no than yes with this team.
Why They Won’t Win It All: As much talent as this team will feature they’ve lost a ton from last year’s loaded squad. No more Cole Aldrich or Sherron Collins. Forty-nine percent of its scoring from last year is gone and that’s a lot of overcome. Also there’s the track record. Why does Kansas perpetually underachieve?

Baylor
10-11 Odds: 18-1
Last Year: Elite Eight (28-8)
Key Returnees: LaceDarius Dunn, Anthony Jones, Quincy Acy
Why They Can Win It All: The Bears might have the best shooting guard in the country in Dunn. And the rest of the Bears are pretty good as well, including forwards Acy and Jones. Unfortunately, Dunn’s status with the team is still undetermined. With an early fall domestic abuse incident, Dunn is cleared to practice but suspended from competition indefinitely.
Why They Won’t Win It All: Three starters are gone from last year’s squad, including big man Ekpe Udoh and the valuable Tweety Carter. Point guard will be a question mark and how will the Bears deal with the added weight of big expectations? Baylor had a season for the ages under Scott Drew last season. Equaling that same success is going a tough, tough job. It’ll be impossible if Dunn misses significant time.

Other Notables With Long Odds: Butler (28-1), BYU (50-1), Connecticut (50-1), Florida (20-1), Florida State (60-1), Georgetown (22-1), Gonzaga (50-1), Illinois (22-1), Louisville (20-1), Missouri (48-1), Ohio State (25-1), Syracuse (28-1), Washington (55-1), West Virginia (55-1)

I’m going to hold off on coming up with a preseason Top 25 until the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NBA Draft passes April 25. That way we’ll have a much better idea of what the teams will look like. But in the meantime, if you can’t wait until the end of the month there are plenty of other big-time national writers who have put their lists out – for the sole reason that their editors made them do it. After all, nothing gets page views like lists. So here’s a sampling of what the “experts” were thinking right after last week’s national championship game.

Luke Winn, SI.com

1. Duke, 2. Michigan State, 3. Butler, 4. Kansas State, 5. Purdue

Jeff Goodman, FoxSports.com

1. Duke, 2. Michigan State, 3. Butler, 4. Purdue, 5. Ohio State

Gary Parrish, CBSSports.com

1. Michigan State, 2. Duke, 3. Butler, 4. Purdue, 5. Villanova

Mike DeCourcy, Sporting News

1. Duke, 2. Ohio State, 3. Michigan State, 4. Purdue, 5. Butler

Andy Katz, ESPN.com

1. Purdue, 2. Duke, 3. Butler, 4. Michigan State, 5. Pitt

Mike Miller, NBCSports.com

1. Michigan State, 2. Duke, 3. Butler, 4. Purdue, 5. Pitt

Rush The Court

1. Duke, 2. Butler, 3. Purdue, 4. Michigan State, 5. Georgetown

So there seems to be a consensus among the masses. Duke, Butler, Michigan State and Purdue, generally in that order. And no Kentucky to be found. Kind of tough when it seems like your entire team leaves for the NBA, but no one will cry for John Calipari anytime soon.

Duke’s No. 1 preseason status will depend heavily on whether Kyle Singler comes back to school. Purdue could creep up should Robbie Hummel’s rehab from a torn ACL roll on without any setbacks. And the darlings of March, Butler, will hold their breath to see what Gordon Hayward decides to do. He’d be a first round pick this June. But does he want to improve his draft status and shoot for another deep run in the tournament?

So check back in a few weeks and we’ll run down next season’s top 25 a good seven months before the first tip. And know that we’re doing this out of the goodness of our heart. No editor pressure. Promise.

For that one fleeting second you thought you were about to witness the improbable. Again.

In this 2010 NCAA tournament, where improbable replaced convention as the norm, Gordon Hayward’s 40-foot heave with time expiring was supposed to go in.

Butler was supposed to complete a thrilling victory, complete its amazing mid-major run to a national title that its kind isn’t supposed to be able to compete for.

The storybook ending was playing our before out eyes. Improbably.

But a funny thing happened just before Hayward’s heave hit the backboard, then the front iron, before falling to the hardwood floor of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Convention finally revealed itself at the 59:59 mark of the national championship game, in the final second of the tournament that was unlike any other. Fittingly, Duke was crowned the 2010 national champion. Underdog Butler’s run had come to a thrilling yet heartbreaking end.

In one of the best national championship games we’ve seen in recent memory, No. 1 Duke survived No. 5 Butler, 61-59, to capture the school’s fourth national championship. In the process, coach Mike Krzyzewski joined the likes of John Wooden and Adolph Rupp as the only coaches in college basketball history to win that many titles.

It ended a long drought for Coach K whose previous Final Four trip was six years ago and last national title came in 2001. Yet again, Duke was the last team left standing on the first Monday in April. Here’s how the Blue Devils did it.

– One of Duke’s best defensive teams in the program’s storied history did a great job against Butler. The Bulldogs incurred another agonizing scoring drought in the game’s waning minutes and finished the evening shooting just 34.5 percent from the field. The Blue Devils forced Butler to take difficult shots all evening long and the Bulldogs missed a number of contested shots right around the bucket. Matt Howard was just 3 of 8 from the field, having layup after layup rim out in the first half while Hayward, Butler’s leading scorer who averaged 15.6 points per game this season, shot a measly 2 of 11 from the field – his worst performance of the season – to finish with just 12 points. Hayward did not hit a shot from beyond the arc and Kyle Singler was a big reason for that. He did a great job defending Hayward, hounding him with his length and forcing him to take tough shots at weird angles. Singler played great help defense, finishing with 2 blocks but he undoubtedly altered more than that. He had plenty of help from Brian Zoubek who was a big presence in the post when he wasn’t on the bench with foul trouble. After the game, Butler coach Brad Stevens spoke of Duke’s adjustment that saw the Blue Devils pack in the middle to cut off the lanes to the basket that Butler was taking advantage early on. The scoring opportunities became scarcer as the game wore on. That scoring drought that we saw from Butler against Michigan State in the national semifinal reared its ugly head again. They were able to overcome it against the Spartans Saturday. Not so Monday against Duke.

– Duke finally took control of the glass in the second half. After being badly out-rebounding in the first half – Butler had a 10-3 advantage on the offensive glass in the first half – the Blue Devils reestablished their presence underneath after halftime. Duke finished with 36-32 rebounding edge and narrowed the offensive rebounding gap to 12-11. The extra opportunities Duke got from the rebounds did two things: It gave them added chances to score, which they capitalized on, and secondly, it allowed them to run a lot of time off the clock, giving Butler significantly fewer possessions in the game’s final five minutes. And when you’re already having trouble putting the ball in the basket, having fewer chances to do it magnifies the problem.

– Butler played its typical excellent defense but the Bulldogs did not hold an opponent to under 60 points for the first time since their regular season finale. Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Singler – Duke’s big three scorers – were not frustrated offensively to the level that many of Butler’s other NCAA tournament opponents were. Scheyer finished with 15 while Smith had 13. Singler, who was named the tournament MOP, had a game-high 19. Butler did not make it easy on Duke, they had a tough time scoring for sure. But Duke made baskets when they needed it in the second half. The majority of their points came from inside the 3-point line Monday, a relative rarity for Duke this season. The Blue Devils made just 5 of 17 from downtown, but still shot 44 percent for the game, making 51 percent of their 2-point attempts.

Sick of the whole David vs. Goliath theme?

If you’re not already you surely will be by the time tonight’s national championship game tips-off. Duke has returned to its role of being the big, bad favorite that everyone loves to hate while mid-major Butler, playing in its hometown, is the underdog hoping to complete a storybook ending this evening.

Both have taken very different paths to get here yet feature many similarities. So who has the edge? Here’s are the keys to tonight’s game as the 2009-10 college basketball season officially comes to end.

Duke vs. Butler
Line: Duke -7.5, O/U 128
KenPom: Duke -7
Location: Indianapolis
TV: CBS, 9:21 pm

If You Like Defense: First thing’s first. When comparing these two you start with defense because they both excel on that end. Duke and Butler are among the nation’s best when it comes to the defensive efficiency ratings. Duke sits at No. 3 nationally in the ratings, giving up an average of 85.8 points per 100 possessions, while Butler comes in at No. 6, allowing 86.4 points per 100 possessions. Butler has the advantage when it comes to points allowed per game but can you chalk that up to the lesser conference competition they’ve played? To a degree, yes, but look at what Bulldogs have done in the tournament holding UTEP, Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State to 59 points or less. Butler just defends the hell out of teams in the half court. They don’t have a shot blocking presence. They don’t have a true lockdown guard on the perimeter. They just play great half court team defense and are phenomenal at forcing turnovers without the help of a full court press of any other kind of pressure defense. Considering Duke’s struggles at making 2-point baskets, that plays into the hands of Butler big time. That being said, Duke features its best defensive team arguably in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s long tenure with the Blue Devils. They’re longer and bigger than Butler and we saw the Bulldogs struggle mightily to establishe any kind of low post presence when Matt Howard wasn’t on the floor against Michigan State Saturday. And even when he was out there, Howard had to work like a dog to get any sort of decent shot off. Duke should rule the paint tonight. Butler will launch a lot of 3s.

Duke's Kyle Singler attempts to block the layup attempt from West Virginia's Joe Mazzulla in Saturday's national semifinal. (AP)

Size Does Matter: Duke will have a decided height-advantage underneath and Howard, he of the mild concussion suffered Saturday in the win over Michigan State, is actually questionable for the game. No way he doesn’t play but he will have a tall order trying to box out Brian Zoubek. As we’ve said for the past several days, Duke is a excellent offensive rebounding team and they’re going to get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight unless Butler somehow is able to keep Duke from crashing the boards. Between Zoubek, Kyle Singler and the Plumlee brothers, Butler does not have the bodies to matchup with Duke. Expect plenty of passes to the perimeter tonight off Duke misses. And just like they did against West Virginia, expect the Blue Devils to bury a number of those second chance 3s.

Get Low: Butler wants this game to be like the one we saw against Michigan State. Slow, methodical, plodding and hopefully no more than 110 total points scored. That’s the way Butler wins games. They can’t get into a shootout with Duke because it doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. Now it’s not like Duke is a run-and-gun type of team either but it certainly has more offensive weapons at its disposal than Butler. While I think the matchup on the front line and Duke’s dominance on the boards will be most telling, the second most telling matchup of the game will be the job Butler does on Duke’s guards, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored will have their hands full this evening chasing around those two. Scheyer and Smith have combined to score 91 points in the Blue Devils’ last two games. But we’ve seen Mack, Nored and the rest of the Bulldogs do a pretty good job of holding down some of the tournament’s best offensive guards like Andy Rautins, Jacob Pullen and Korie Lucious. None of them had good games against Butler – just like their teams.

Star Power: Gordon Hayward’s going to have to take Butler on his back in this one. On the big stage, Butler’s best player will need to shine brightest for the Bulldogs to keep this one close and have a chance to steal it in the final minutes. The best players are supposed to play their best in the biggest games. And not only is Hayward Butler’s best player, but he’s probably be the best player on the court tonight. All you have to do is look at the NBA Draft projections. Hayward’s considered to be a first-round pick should he leave school early. No Duke player is projected to be selected this June.

Butler coach Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs have won 25 straight games. (AP)

The Bench: It’s Coach K vs. baby-faced Brad Stevens. Krzyzewski is going for his fourth national title tonight while Stevens is just in his third year of being the head coach at Butler. Clearly the advantage is in Krzyzewski’s favor. In fact, it’s not even a competition. But Stevens has been getting a lot of pub for his cool, calm demeanor. It’s gotten Butler this far and the coach has shown no signs of panic. No reason to think tonight will be any different. One other subplot. Could this be Krzyzewski’s last game coaching the Blue Devils?

Prediction: Duke 70, Butler 61. As much as I want to see the Bulldogs win – for the wonderful story it would be and for the fact that I predicted Duke would never get to the Final Four months ago, then repeatedly writing how they would be bounced early in the tournament once the brackets were released, setting me up for what could be plenty of ridicule – I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Duke’s got plenty of momentum. All the key players are seemingly at the top of their game right now. They have a huge size advantage and one of the all-time greats calling the shots. I never thought I’d be writing this – this is not a great Duke team by any stretch of the imagination – but your 2010 national champion will be the Blue Devils. The haters will be out in full force tonight.