The Double Bonus

Who has the inside path at winning it all? Well, that’s largely determined by what a team’s road to the Final Four looks like. While the NCAA Tournament selection committee aims to balance each region equally, they usually end up loading one or two side of the bracket, leaving clearer paths for some teams to reach Indianapolis this April. So which teams have four wins in them? Here’s a look at each region, with a big surprise thrown in for the South.

East
Bracket Busters: No. 6 Marquette, No. 8 Texas, No. 12 Cornell
Regional Final: No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 2 West Virginia

Kentucky is the No. 1 seed in the region that will hold its final in Carrier Dome in Syracuse. And because of that, the Orange were forbidden from being slotted into the region. The Wildcats path to the Final Four is certainly not daunting, but far from easy. A second round matchup with No. 8 seed Texas – at one time the No. 1 team in the nation – possibly awaits in the second round. No. 4 seed Wisconsin is another team that many have been talking up heading into the tournament and their methodical, plodding style and maturity could frustrate Kentucky should they meet in the Sweet 16. But the Badgers first have to get past the 5/12 winner between Temple and Cornell, one of the most interesting first round games.

On the bottom half of the region, No. 2 seed West Virginia should have an easy time making it to the Sweet 16. The Montaineers should be able to handle the winner of the 7/10 matchup between Clemson and Missouri while a potentially very interesting matchup in San Jose in the second round between Marquette and New Mexico will determine who meets the Mountaineers in the third round. The only real threat to an Elite Eight appearance for West Virginia comes in the form of fellow Big East member Marquette.That and the Mountaineers tendency to lose focus from time to time.

That being said, I’m expecting a Kentucky-West Virginia regional final but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Wildcats don’t get there. Kentucky’s immaturity and inexperience will cost them at some point and West Virginia has the size and shooting ability to beat anyone in the nation. So if the Mountaineers can continue to get consistent guard play – and Da’Sean Butler keeps playing like he did in the Big East Tournament – then Mountaineers will be on their way to Indy.

South
Bracket Busters: No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 9 Louisville, No. 13 Siena
Regional Final: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Notre Dame

Call me crazy. Call me an idiot. Call me different. Call me whatever because I doubt many others are going to pick a Texas A&M-Notre Dame regional final. But I’m going out on a limb and here’s why: Duke is not that good. And as the No. 1 seed in the region, the Blue Devils are going to make a much earlier exit than many people think. If you look at the offensive efficiency ratings, the Blue Devils look like a world beater, but watching them closely against a mediocre – at best – ACC this season then you’d know that this Duke team is lacking in size and athleticism and aside from a few games here and there has not been tested like it will in the NCAA Tournament. Sure the Blue Devils can out-shoot plenty of teams but it’s not going to take much for Duke to be out-muscled down low and pushed around a little. And I think that can happen in the second round should the Blue Devils meet Louisville.  The No. 9 seed Cardinals are a little bit of an enigma and sometimes you just shake your head at them, wondering what’s their problem? They’re madly inconsistent, but they have so much talent and so much potential. Don’t expect much from Purdue, the No. 4 seed, without Robbie Hummel. The Boilermakers aren’t that good without their second leading scorer and it should be a quick stay in the tournament. Texas A&M should beat Utah State in a matchup between the Aggies – the tournament selection committee’s attempt at humor – and can easily beat the Purdue-Siena winner. And the fact that A&M is playing in Houston will certainly help them advance.

On the bottom half of the region, Villanova is a shaky No. 2 seed. With a lack of size and big time defensive issues, I’d be shocked to see the Wildcats make a deep run in the tournament. Others are hyping the Wildcats to make a return trip to the Final Four. I definitely don’t see it. Notre Dame will have a tough path to the Sweet 16, having to first get past No. 11 seed Old Dominion and then most likely Baylor, the No. 3 seed. Baylor is an interesting team to watch. Certainly not very experienced in big March games but definitely dangerous. A lot of people are going to pick the Bears to make a run to the Elite Eight. But the reason we’re going with Notre Dame to make it to the there is rather simple: They’re hot. Having won six of their last seven games, the Irish played their way into the tournament and have kind of reinvented themselves on the fly, with Luke Harangody now serving as the nation’s best six man. They’ve slowed things down over the second half of the season, grinding out wins, and that’s a formula that can be successful late in March. They’ve got guys who can shoot the lights out from beyond the arc and a big man who is as offensively skilled as they come in the college game. They’re flying under the radar a little if you ask me. But they’re a legit team. Don’t sleep on the Irish.

Midwest

Bracket Busters: No. 6 Tennessee, No. 10 Georgia Tech
Regional Final: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 3 Georgetown

Kansas, the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament, was given the toughest path of the four No. 1 seeds. The Jayhawks have a number of tough teams in their region and just getting to the regional final will be tough sledding. A second round matchup with either UNLV or UNI looms while we could see a Sweet 16 showdown with Michigan State or Maryland. Kansas clearly has the talent advantage but anything can happen in the tournament and I would expect a tough, tough game from the either the Spartans or Terps – I’ll say the Terps – in a Sweet 16 matchup. But neither the Spartans or Terps have the manpower that Kansas does.

The bottom half of the region is wide open with No. 2 seed Ohio State, No. 3 seed Georgetown, No. 6 seed Tennessee and No. 10 seed Georgia Tech fighting it out to reach the regional final. The two most talented teams in this region are the Hoyas and Yellow Jackets, but don’t expect much from the young and inexperienced Jackets. Tech has got some great young players on their squad but they’re still a year or two away from making a legit run. That being said, they won’t be an easy out. Ohio State should take care of the Yellow Jackets in the second round while a Tennessee-Georgetown second round meeting will be garner plenty of attention. I’m giving the Hoyas the edge to get to the regional final for a few reasons. For starters, the Hoyas have a highly-skilled big man in Greg Monroe who has few peers in the game today. Plus he’s got some very good teammates in Austin Freeman and Chris Wright who do more than their fare share. Ohio State has the soon to be national player of the year in Evan Turner and the best starting five in the Big Ten. But the Big Ten is not the Big East and if you’ve heard John Thompson III talk up his team this past week as they made their run to the Big East Tournament final then you know it appears the Hoyas are rounding into form after some February struggles. I’ll be looking forward to that Ohio State-Georgetown Sweet 16 matchup. But even if the Hoyas prevail in that one, the Elite Eight is as far as they’re going to get. Kansas, with its embarrassment of riches, will be moving on to another Final Four.

West
Bracket Busters: No. 6 Xavier, No. 7 BYU
Regional Final: No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Kansas State

Syracuse got jobbed by the selection committee and was shipped out west. But their path to the Sweet 16 is pretty clear. Maybe their consolation for being the fourth overall No. 1 seed was to sit on top of the weakest region. If so, that’s not a bad tradeoff. The Orange will take care of Vermont – who coincidentally got its only NCAA Tournament victory against Syracuse in 2005 – in the first round matchup and No. 4 seed Vanderbilt, No. 5 seed Butler and No. 8 seed Gonzaga should not present big challenges to the vastly more talented Orange in potential matchups in the second and third rounds. Expect Syracuse to smoothly sail into the regional final.

No. 2 seed Kansas State has a few more road bumps facing it on its quest to get to the regional final in Salt Lake City. The Wildcats are likely looking at a Sweet 16 matchup with No. 3 seed Pittsburgh if the Panthers can get by the 6/11 winner between Xavier and Minnesota. As for K-State’s second round matchup, that will come against either BYU or Florida. But unless the Wildcats just don’t show up or have an off night, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t take care of business against either the Cougars or Gators. No team in this portion of the bracket has the overall talent that Kansas State features and the Wildcats – aside from Pittsburgh – are without a doubt the most physical team in the lower half of the bracket.

So expect a Syracuse-Kansas State regional final which will make for a very intriguing game. How will the Wildcats handle the Syracuse 2-3 zone? Will they be able to shoot well enough from outside? Syracuse certainly won’t be intimidated by the Wildcats physical play but it won’t be easy chasing around Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente.  The health of Arinze Onuaku, who might miss the Orange’s first weekend of the tournament, will bear watching. If Syracuse doesn’t have its big man for the Sweet 16 then it would get a little dicey. There’s something about this Kansas State team that I’ve liked all season and even though they’ve failed in a few big spots – namely three times against Kansas – I say the Wildcats get it done this time around. And I don’t like the fact that Syracuse enters this one on a two-game losing streak. Something about them hasn’t been quite right in a few weeks. Andy Rautins and Wes Johnson are a load to deal with and one of them could easily carry Syracuse to the Final Four. But I’m just really liking Kansas State. So are a lot of other people.

Selection Sunday has finally arrived and with the NCAA officially releasing this year’s field of 65, we can now analyze the tournament selection committee’s decisions. And there’s a lot to analyze. So here’s some quick reaction to the bracket: What the committee got right, what they got wrong and a few other observations thrown in for good measure.

The No. 1 Seeds

As expected, Kansas was the overall No. 1 seed, earning the top spot in the Midwest region. The best team in the nation throughout the regular season will be the favorite entering the tournament. Kentucky was tabbed the No. 1 seed in the East region and the second overall top seed. Duke, in a big surprise, was handed the third No. 1 seed, slotted in the South region. Syracuse, who many believed was locked into that third No. 1 seed, was handed the top spot in the West region. No. 1 seeds are nothing new for the Jayhawks, Wildcats and Blue Devils, but not the Orange. This was just the second time Syracuse has earned a No. 1 seed. The first since – if you can believe this – 1980.

What They Got Right

– Ohio State as a No. 2 seed. The Buckeyes had a great season, but were not worthy of a No. 1 seed. Winning a share of the Big Ten regular season title and then the conference tournament in fine fashion was one thing, but not nearly enough to warrant the last No. 1 seed. Anyone arguing otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

– Minnesota got in thanks to its run in the Big Ten Tournament and a boatload of wins over the RPI’s top 50. No way you can keep out a team with wins over Butler, Purdue, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

– Notre Dame was the eighth and final Big East team to make the tournament and I thought rather appropriately slotted as No. 6 seed. Five wins over the RPI’s top 50? No way the Irish should have sweated an at-large bid. And clearly, the didn’t need to.

– Cal deservedly earned itself an at-large bid. You can’t keep a regular season winner from one of the six major conferences out of the tournament. No matter how bad that conference was this season. The Pac-10 got two bids, more than it really deserved because Washington earned its was in thanks to a win over the Bears in the conference tournament final.

– UTEP absolutely deserved to be in there. The Miners may have been the last team in the tournament, earning a No. 12 seed after losing the C-USA Tournament title, but I was very happy to see the selection committee include them. They’re a solid team team. Could give some people problems.

– Judging teams by their non-conference strength of schedules. Some notable bubble teams were left out and a big reason was their glaring lack of tough non-league games. The tournament committee should penalize teams that dog it when it comes to scheduling tough games. Wins and losses are obviously very important, but it’s not the only thing. It does matter – a whole hell of a lot – who you play and how you play in those games. The tournament committee wants the best 65 teams in the field, not the 65 teams with the best record.

What They Got Wrong

–The committee screwed up in swapping spots with Syracuse and Duke. I didn’t think Duke deserved a No. 1 seed, let alone to be the third overall No. 1 seed. West Virginia, having won the Big East Tournament and finishing second in the Big East regular season standings, was much more deserving of a No. 1 seed than the Blue Devils. The ACC was markedly weaker than the Big East this year and considering the Mountaineers played a tougher schedule than the Blue Devils, I’m really at a loss for how Duke was rated so highly by the committee. The committee said it put a lot of consideration toward Duke’s late season run, especially in the ACC Tournament. Did they not see West Virginia’s? Maybe they were blinded by Duke’s scoring differential numbers at home? That’s the only explanation I can think of. Duke will be the first No. 1 seed to go down. Take it to the bank.

– Purdue was lucky enough to earn a No. 4 seed, but without their second leading scorer Robbie Hummel who was lost for the season a few weeks ago, the Boilermakers are not one of the 16 best teams in the nation. Simple as that. Purdue’s going to be bounced pretty quickly.

– Florida as a No. 10 seed? Really?!? Did not think the Gators were a tournament team but the committee felt otherwise. Only three wins over the RPI top 50 – Tennessee, Michigan State and Florida State which are not exactly that impressive – and just a 4-6 record down the stretch was a little underwhelming in my opinion.

– You can’t tell me that Utah State is a better team than some of the other bubble teams that were left out. The Aggies lost the WAC championship game to New Mexico State but still earned an at-large bid.  Two wins over the RPI top 50 was enough to earn Utah State a No. 12 seed in the South Region. If the committee is determined to get the best 65 teams into the tournament then I have a tough time believing that Utah State deserves to be one of them.

– Kind of small potatoes here, but the committee really penalized Gonzaga, shipping them out to Buffalo for their first round matchup. I say that because Spokane is hosting first and second round games this year and the Zags had pretty  much expected to spend the first weekend of the tournament staying home. Gonzaga may have locked up a stay at home with a WCC Tournament win. With a 26-6 overall record, and 12-2 in WCC play, and three top 50 RPI wins, and you couldn’t keep the Zags at home? I understand that it’s supposed to be a reward for very good regular season, but didn’t Gonzaga earn that?

- De-emphasizing teams’ records in their final 10-12 games. The committee stopped weighing that a few years back but basically admitted it was a factor in determining seeding with the Nos. 1 and some other bubble teams. Yet that wasn’t the case with Florida for some reason? Shocking that the NCAA was being hypocritical. We’ve never seen that before from them. Anyway, if the selection committee is supposed to pick a field with the 65 best teams at the exact moment when the regular season ends – which is supposed to be their goal when they put together the bracket Sunday afternoon – then they need to weigh teams’ records ending the season.

The Bubble Finally Burst

– Illinois. Minnesota’s run in the Big Ten Tournament did not help the Illini. It’s very tough to leave out a team with five wins over the RPI top 50, but that 4-6 record down the stretch killed Illinois. Despite having the 33rd toughest schedule in the nation, their non-conference strength of schedule was ranked 111th best in the nation and that may have been the nail in the coffin.

– Mississippi State had two quality wins all season long – against Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. That’s it. Two wins over the RPI top 50. Mississippi State may have passed that “eye test” Sunday against Kentucky but that SEC Tournament run was the only NCAA Tournament worthy thing the Bulldogs did all season long. It was too little, too late.

– Virginia Tech‘s non-conference schedule was what probably did in the Hokies. They played NO ONE this year. Tech’s non-conference strength of schedule was 339th in the nation. It’s almost criminal for an ACC team to have a non-conference strength of schedule like that. And for anyone bringing up the Wake Forest-Virginia Tech argument, I’m not buying it.

– UAB. Conference USA was extremely lucky to get two teams into the dance. No way they were getting three.

And the final general observation: What a ridiculously weak field of 65. Can’t remember seeing a bracket filled with more lackluster teams than this one. The fact that some of these teams bubble teams were even under consideration for the tournament just goes to show you how pathetic this year’s crop of college basketball is. Whoever wins the national championship this year will be stealing one. Maybe this makes for a fun tournament, maybe this one will turn out to be some memorable since we don’t have any truly dominant teams playing. But talent wise, the college game is going through a bit of a lull right now.

We’ll have more in-depth analysis on each region coming up along with looks at the sleepers, the real contenders and some of the tournaments best matchups. 

The best college basketball team in Connecticut is…Quinnipiac?

Well, considering the Bobcats are on the brink of earning a berth into the NCAA Tournament how can you not agree?

With UConn playing like dogs down the stretch of the regular season and seemingly choking away what only a few weeks ago appeared to be a berth in the big dance for the taking, Quinnipiac can do Wednesday night what the Huskies so brilliantly failed to.

Win a meaningful game and make it to the promised land that is the field of 65.

While UConn embarrassed itself the past two weeks, most notably with a feeble showing in the first round of the Big East Tournament Tuesday, the Bobcats have quietly had themselves a very successful 21-8 regular season under head coach Tom Moore – the former UConn assistant coach – and are poised to secure the school’s first ever spot in the NCAA Tournament when the NEC Conference championship tips off at the TD Banknorth Center this evening.

Moore, in his third season at the helm of the Hamden-based school, led the Bobcats to the NEC’s regular season title and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament thanks to some outstanding individual talent and the team’s uncanny nose-for-the-ball mentality.

Quinnipiac features the NEC Player of the Year in Justin Rutty who averages 15.2 ppg and 11 rpg. And when Rutty’s not shining in the spotlight, the rest of Rutty’s teammates are helping the Bobcats out-rebound opponents by 9.5 boards per game, while leading the league in offensive rebounds and field goal percentage.

So clearly the Bobcats can a play a little. They went undefeated at home this year and have already won more games than any other team in Quinnipiac history (23). And if previous performance is any indication of future results, the Bobcats took this season’s only meeting with No. 2 seed Robert Morris, tonight’s opponent, an 87-79 victory on the road back on Feb. 20.

So with the 7 pm tip – televised nationally on ESPN2 – drawing closer, all signs are seemingly pointing toward the NCAA Tournament for the Bobcats. Sure, once they get there it’s going to be a quick stay – several projections have the Bobcats slotted in as a No. 16 seed, likely to face Syracuse in the first round. And sure, if Quinnipiac and UConn ever met on the court the Huskies would be favored by about 20 points. But none of that matters now.

The Bobcats have the chance to have an infinitely more successful season than UConn without very many knowing it. They’re on the brink of the NCAA Tournament. They’ve won the games that mattered, they’ve performed when the pressure has been on them. They’ve finished the season strong. They have a chance to win a championship.

That’s a whole lot more than UConn will ever be able to say about its sorry 2009-10 season. And that’s why Quinnipiac is the best college basketball team in Connecticut.

As usual, Madison Square Garden plays host to the Big East Tournament and once again the conference welcomes all 16 teams. It makes for a rather drawn out tournament, but who is really going to complain about more basketball in March? The top four seeds each earned a double bye (which isn’t necessarily a good thing if you ask Jim Boeheim) and we won’t see them play until Thursday while seeds 5-8 get one day off and tip-off Wednesday. That leaves the rest of the league to kick things off bright and early Tuesday at noon. Welcome to championship week…

Location: New York
Dates: Tuesday-Saturday
TV: ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU

The Seeds
1. Syracuse
2. Pittsburgh
3. West Virginia
4. Villanova
5. Marquette
6. Louisville
7. Notre Dame
8. Georgetown
9. USF
10. Seton Hall
11. Cincinnati
12. Connecticut
13. St. John’s
14. Rutgers
15. Providence
16.  DePaul

The Favorites
Syracuse is the top seed after securing the conference’s outright regular season title for the first since 1991. The Orange are the No. 3 team in the nation and a legitimate national title contender with an explosive offense and that stifling 2-3 zone on defense. They’ll be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament barring something unforeseen. Pittsburgh earned the conference’s No. 2 seed but still isn’t garnering a whole lot of respect, especially after needing a buzzer beater to escape past Providence at home last week. West Virginia comes in having won five of its last six games and seems to have put some mid-February struggles in the rear-view mirror. The Mountaineers have size up front and they can knock down the outside shot, but inconsistent backcourt play has prevented WVU from being considered among the nation’s elite. Villanova has struggled a bit down the stretch of the season as the Wildcats finally started to play the conference’s best teams. The backloaded schedule finally caught up with them. But with Scottie Reynolds running the show, the Wildcats are capable of shooting their way to a championship and if that happens maybe a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament would follow.

The Boys On The Bubbles
No two teams are hotter than Notre Dame and Marquette entering New York and thanks to their recent runs both the Irish and Golden Eagles should find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. Louisville should feel secure as an NCAA Tournament team as well so the only teams that are really playing for their postseason lives this week are Connecticut and Seton Hall. Both believe they still have a shot at securing an at-large bid but it’s going to take a huge run through the tournament to get back into legitimate bubble conversation. UConn would probably have to beat St. John’s, Marquette and Villanova to really get back on the NCAA Tournament radar while Seton Hall would have to mow down Providence, Notre Dame and Pitt if they want to go dancing. It’s not looking good for either.

The Can’t Miss Matchups
If UConn can get past St. John’s Tuesday that would set up an interesting game with Marquette Wednesday afternoon. Everyone will expect a Syracuse-Villanova semifinal matchup Friday evening. And let’s see what Luke Harangody can give the Irish if they can make it to Thursday and meet Pittsburgh in the quarterfinals.

The Winner
West Virginia. While Louisville and Pittsburgh may have been the only teams to beat Syracuse this season (the Cardinals did it twice), the Mountaineers were a one-point loser to the Orange back in January. They have the size and the shooting prowess to handle the 2-3 zone and during the season’s final few weeks, Syracuse did not exactly look like the Syracuse that was rolling through the conference in January. West Virginia is the top dog in the weaker branch of the bracket and as long as the Mountaineers can maintain focus – something they have battled on numerous occasions this season – then WVU will pick up the school’s first even Big East Tournament title.

In college basketball, the polls don’t really matter that much. So for argumentative purposes here’s what I think the newest AP Top 25 should look like when it’s released Monday afternoon – the final one of the regular season.

1. Kansas (29-2, 15-1 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 2
Last Week: Defeated No. 5 Kansas State, @ Missouri
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Jayhawks return to their rightful place as the nation’s top team.

2. Kentucky (29-2, 14-2 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 3
Last Week: Defeated @ Georgia Florida
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Wildcats will be the No. 1 seed in the South Region when the brackets are released next Sunday.

3. Syracuse (28-3, 15-3 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 1
Last Week: Defeated St. John’s, Lost @ Louisville
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Short stay for the Orange atop the rankings. Still like them to get to Indy for the Final Four but they’re not the best team in America.

4. Duke (26-5, 15-3 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 4
Last Week: Lost to No. 22 Maryland, Defeated North Carolina
This Week: ACC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Duke earned a share of its 12th ACC regular season title after it handed the Tar Heels their worst loss in Durham in the storied rivalry’s history.

5. West Virginia (24-6, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated No. 19 Georgetown, @ No. 8 Villanova
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Mountaineers have picked up some impressive wins down the stretch. Still think their guard play is a little suspect, but I think they’re an Elite Eight team.

6. Kansas State (24-6, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 5
Last Week: Lost @ No. 2 Kansas, Defeated Iowa State
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Wildcats may have blown their chance at securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament but expect them to make a big run in the dance. Some think they’re overrated. I’m not one of them.

7. Ohio State (24-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 6
Last Week: Defeated Illinois
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Nice to see that everyone pretty much has Evan Turner as their player of the year. No one has been more valuable to their team.

8. Villanova (24-6, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 8
Last Week: Defeated @ Cincinnati, Lost to No. 10 West Virginia
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Wildcats aren’t exactly generating a lot of buzz entering the postseason. But I guarantee no one wants to play them.

9. Michigan State (24-7, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 11
Last Week: Defeated Penn State, Michigan
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Spartans earned a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State and Purdue with a drubbing of the Wolverines Sunday. Still don’t like the way Michigan State is playing as they head into postseason play. But don’t count out Kalin Lucas and Tom Izzo.

10. New Mexico (28-3, 14-2 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 10
Last Week: Defeated TCU
This Week: MWC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
The Lobos as a No. 2 seed in the tournament? Looks like it’s going to happen.

11. Purdue (26-4, 14-4 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 7
Last Week: Defeated Indiana, @ Penn State
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No.2  seed)
Boilermakers did alright in their first full week without Robbie Hummel. But then again look who they played.

12. Vanderbilt (23-7, 13-4 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 13
Last Week: Defeated @ Florida, Lost to South Carolina
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
The drop off after the first seven or eight teams is pretty steep. No way a team of Vanderbilt’s caliber should be this high but it’s just one of those years…

13. Pittsburgh (24-7, 13-5 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 17
Last Week: Defeated Providence, Rutgers
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 2 seed)
If Jim Boeheim wasn’t having the kind of season he and the Orange are having, Jamie Dixon would be a lock to pick up Big East Coach of the Year honors.

14. Gonzaga (26-5, 13-2 WCC)
Pvs. AP: 18
Last Week: Defeated CSU-Bakersfield, Loyola Marymount
This Week: WCC Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Bulldogs look on their way to adding yet another WCC Tournament title to the mantle.

15. Tennessee (23-7, 11-5 SEC)
Pvs. AP: 16
Last Week: Defeated Arkansas, Lost @ Mississippi State
This Week: SEC Tournament (No. 5 seed)
Tough to figure out the Vols. One week they’re knocking off Kentucky the next week losing badly to a bubble team. They’re not going anywhere in the tournament.

16. Wisconsin (23-7, 13-5 Big Ten)
Pvs. AP: 15
Last Week: Defeated Iowa, @ Illinois
This Week: Big Ten Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Badgers will be very familiar with their first round opponent in the Big Ten tourney having just played them Sunday.

17. BYU (28-4, 13-3 MWC)
Pvs. AP: 14
Last Week: Defeated @ Utah, @ TCU
This Week: MWC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Cougars fans are a little worried about Jimmer Fredette after the PG has scored just 32 in his last three games, well off his average.

18. Butler (27-4, 18-0 Horizon)
Pvs. AP: 12
Last Week: Defeated Wisconsin-Milwaukee
This Week: Wright State (Horizon Tournament Championship Game)
Many eyes will be on Tuesday’s game. Horizon is a one-bid league so if the Bulldogs lose that means an an at-large invitation will be off the board.

19. Maryland (23-7, 13-3 ACC)
Pvs. AP: 22
Last Week: Defeated No. 4 Duke, @ Virginia
This Week: ACC Tournament (No. 2 seed)
Terps got a little revenge against the Blue Devils at home Wednesday and look forward to round No. 3 with their hated rivals in the conference championship game.

20. Baylor (24-6, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 21
Last Week: Defeated @ Texas Tech, Texas
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 3 seed)
Bears have quietly had a very good season. I guarantee you no one had Baylor pegged as the league’s third best team when the year started. In fact, the media picked them to finish 10th. Scott Drew’s doing quite a job in Waco.

21. Temple (26-5, 14-2 A-10)
Pvs. AP: 20
Last Week: Defeated @ Saint Louis, George Washington
This Week: A-10 Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Anyone else rooting for a Temple-Xavier showdown in the A-10 championship game?

22. UTEP (24-5, 14-1 C-USA)
Pvs. AP: 24
Last Week: Defeated @ Marshall, UAB
This Week: C-USA Tournament (No. 1 seed)
Miners wrapped up the C-USA regular season crown with two good wins, especially the one on the road against Marshall.

23. Georgetown (20-9, 10-8 Big East)
Pvs. AP: 19
Last Week: Lost @ No. 10 West Virginia, Defeated Cincinnati
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 8 seed)
Sad news about Austin Freeman but hopefully the diagnosis will help him feel better and in turn get the Hoyas playing better basketball. Team is capable of making a big tournament run.

24. Texas A&M (22-8, 11-5 Big 12)
Pvs. AP: 23
Last Week: Defeated Oklahoma State, @ Oklahoma
This Week: Big 12 Tournament (No. 4 seed)
Not expecting much out of the Aggies when the tournament rolls around but they’ll be a tough out.

25. Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 Big East)
Pvs. AP: NR
Last Week: Defeated Connecticut, @ Marquette (OT)
This Week: Big East Tournament (No. 7 seed)
Don’t know how the Irish are doing it without Luke Harangody (who just returned from a five game absence) but they’re beating everyone right now and should be heading to the NCAA Tournament.

Others Who Just Missed The Cut (And In No Particular Order): Marquette, Mississippi State, Louisville, Xavier

It’s the last weekend of the regular season for the big conferences and Selection Sunday is just a week away. A few league titles are up for grabs and of course there will surely be plenty of bubble bursting action.

Saturday

No. 10 West Virginia at No. 9 Villanova
KenPom: Villanova -2
TV: CBS, 12 pm
Does Villanova has a shot at a No. 1 seed? Absolutely. And a season sweep of the Mountaineers would do wonders if the Wildcats are that hellbent on securing one of the NCAA Tournament’s top seeds. Nothing is really at stake in this one other than the Wildcats’ seeding. Both teams have double byes in next week’s Big East Tournament. Whoever wins the battle of the boards takes this one.

No. 22 Maryland at Virginia
KenPom: Maryland -7
TV: Raycom, 1:30 pm
Terps are coming off the big win against Duke and need a win over the Cavs to at least earn a share of the ACC title. No reason they shouldn’t get it against a Virginia team that hopes to make the NIT.

No. 2 Kansas at Missouri
KenPom: Kansas -2
TV: CBS, 2 pm
Kansas will look to cement its status as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament before it heads into the Big 12 Tournament. But in order to do that they’re going to have to beat hated-rival Missouri and do so in Columbia, which is no easy task.

No. 1 Syracuse at Louisville
KenPom: Syracuse -4
TV: ESPN, 2 pm
Louisville has in all likelihood wrapped up an NCAA Tournament bid but if they want to improve their seeding knocking off the nation’s top team would be a big help. Freedom Hall will host its final regular season game that will be sure to feature plenty of flashbacks and reminiscing. The place has a ton of history and deserves to go out in style. Remember that Louisville kicked off its push toward the dance with a win in Syracuse, but the Orange are looking to go undefeated on the road. Yes, you read that correctly.

Notre Dame at Marquette
KenPom: Marquette -8
TV: ESPN Full Court, 2 pm
Two NCAA Tournament teams here and that’s saying something because a few weeks ago both of these teams were fighting for their bubble lives. But since they’ve reeled off big win after big win coming down the stretch both will be dancing in two weeks. Marquette has won nine of its last 10 while Notre Dame comes in on a three-game winning streak. Expect Notre Dame big man Luke Harangody to miss another game.

No. 18 Tennessee at Mississippi State
KenPom: Mississippi State -3
TV: ESPN, 6 pm
The Bulldogs are on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament. A win over the Vols would do wonders for their chances. Probably wouldn’t cement an at-large bid but no matter what bracketologists across the country are saying about Mississippi State, this is an absolute must-win for the Bulldogs.

North Carolina at No. 4 Duke
KenPom: Duke -18
TV: ESPN, 9 pm
You know the situation. If Maryland beats UVa., then the onus is on Duke to take care of its arch-rival to earn a share of the ACC title. I doubt the Blue Devils are going to have much trouble with the Tar Heels. Just a hunch.

Bubble Busting Specials: Connecticut at USF, Saint Louis at Dayton, UAB at No. 24 UTEP

Others To Keep An Eye On: George Washington at No. 20 Temple, No. 7 Purdue at Penn State, Texas at No. 21 Baylor, St. Bonaventure at Xavier, Iowa State at No. 5 Kansas State, No. 14 BYU at TCU, Cal at Stanford

Sunday

Florida at No. 3 Kentucky
KenPom: Kentucky -11
TV: CBS, 12 pm
Florida’s bubble could officially burst – baring a huge run in the SEC Tournament – if they can’t win at Rupp. And we all know the chances of that happening are slim to almost none. So the Gators are seriously looking at a third straight NIT if something miraculous doesn’t happen on the road. Wonder how serious John Calipari will take this game considering the Wildcats have already locked down the SEC regular season title?

No. 15 Wisconsin at Illinois
KenPom: Wisconsin -4
TV: ESPN, 2 pm
This is an absolute must for the Illini. For the most part, all the prognosticators have Illinois out of the tournament. Opportunity is knocking at the door. Will the Illini answer?

Michigan at No. 11 Michigan State
KenPom: Michigan State -8
TV: CBS, 4 pm
The Spartans must take down their in-state rival to earn a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State. Michigan State just barely survived a close one with Penn State Thursday and the “struggles” at home continued. The Spartans are usually a very good home team but they narrowly avoided losing a third straight at the Breslin Center. Something seems to be off with the Spartans and I can’t quite put my finger on it. They need to turn it on ASAP.

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Thursday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 2 Kansas 82, No. 5 Kansas State 65
The big matchup in the Big 12 turned out to be a bit of a dud as the Jayhawks rolled past the Wildcats in Allen Fieldhouse. Sherron Collins said an emotional goodbye to the Kansas faithful on senior night with 17 points – despite some shaky shooting. The Jayhawks celebrated another Big 12 regular season title in fine fashion as they clinched their sixth straight conference crown. Kansas State’s hopes for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament were dealt a blow, but the Wildcats can still earn one of the four coveted spots with a big run in next week’s Big 12 Tournament. Only problem is Kansas will probably await in the championship game.

No. 22 Maryland 79, No. 4 Duke 72
Don’t hand the ACC to Duke just yet. The Terps, behind a raucous crowd, prevented the Blue Devils from wrapping up the regular season conference title thanks to Greivis Vasquez’s 20 points. The Terps are now tied with their hated rival atop the conference standings and it will all be determined this weekend when Maryland heads to Virginia while Duke hosts North Carolina. Vasquez also might have wrapped up ACC Player of the Year honors. Duke’s Jon Scheyer – Vasquez’s main competition for the honor – had 19 points, but the Maryland senior stole the show in his final home game.

Notre Dame 58, Connecticut 50
The Fighting Irish picked up a huge win on their road to the field of 65 while handing UConn a serious setback on theirs. Notre Dame struggled shooting in the first half but broke out in the second half while UConn took bad shot after bad shot and reverted back to its old ways of turning the ball over haphazardly. You would think this win puts Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament while UConn may have some work to do when they hit New York for the Big East Tournament. Huskies picked a bad time to play their worst game of the season. It was so bad that during an 18 minute span – from mid-way through the first half to mid-way through the second – UConn scored six points.

Links

Xavier and Temple both won Wednesday meaning the A-10 title will be up for grabs this weekend. The Musketeers close out with St. Bonaventure while Temple takes on George Washington.

In the first upset of the conference tournament season, top seed Lipscomb went down in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. [Macon Telegraph]

And if you want a good spot to really follow all the smaller conference tournaments, might we suggest you look here. [Blogging The Bracket]

Here’s a rarity. A coach admitting a mistake. UCLA’s Ben Howland should be applauded. [Los Angeles Times]

Interesting quote from Texas coach Rick Barnes. Let’s just say the national title isn’t a priority. [ESPN.com]

Wesley Johnson seems to think he’ll be back at Syracuse next season. [Syracuse Post-Standard]

A look at this year’s biggest surprises and disappointments. [Yet Another Basketball Blog]

Josh Herwitt’s power rankings features a new No. 1. [FoxSports.com]

Tonight’s Must See Games

Penn State at No. 11 Michigan State
Line: Michigan State -13
KenPom: Michigan State -12
TV: ESPN, 7 pm
Only game with major implications in one of the six major conferences Thursday, Michigan State needs to win its final two games if it wants to earn a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State. The Buckeyes clinched a share Tuesday night and the top seed in the conference tournament next week so the Spartans are looking to earn a share of the league title and also avoid a rare three-game losing streak at home. To do that, the Spartans are going to need to contain Taylor Battle who has torched them in the past.

A quick look at what went on last night and what to look out for Wednesday.

Last Night’s Action

No. 13 Vanderbilt 64, Florida 60
Vandy kept alive its hopes of an SEC regular season title by earning its first victory in Gainesville in its last nine tries Tuesday. But on the other end of the spectrum, the Commodores handed Florida a crucial loss in their drive to the field of 65. Vandy gave itself the chance to steal the conference crown if Kentucky loses its final two games and while that’s not likely, Florida missing the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year is certainly possible. The Gators, unless they can knock off the Wildcats this weekend in Lexington, might be a little on the anxious side when Selection Sunday finally arrives in a week and a half.

No. 6 Ohio State 73, Illinois 57
The Buckeyes clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament next week with a convincing win over the Illini in Columbus. In their regular season finale, the Buckeyes capped quite the turnaround after a 1-3 start in the league, winning 13 of their last 14 games. Illinois, on the other hand, has picked a bad time to start losing and the Illini are going to sweat out Selection Sunday. A matchup with Wisconsin this weekend to close out the regular season could be their last chance to improve a shaky resume.

No. 9 Villanova 77, Cincinnati 73
Put a fork in Cincinnati’s NCAA Tournament hopes because they’re done after the Bearcats couldn’t knock off the Wildcats at home. Scottie Reynolds scored all 17 of his points in the second half and helped stake Villanova to a 16 point lead before things got closer than head coach Jay Wright would have liked. Unless Cincinnati can rip off an improbable run in next week’s Big East Tournament the Bearcats are looking at the NIT.

Links

Syracuse cruised past St. John’s in its first game as No. 1. [Syracuse Post-Standard]

UTEP clinched the C-USA regular season title by beating Marshall on the road. [El Paso Times]

Minnesota needed a win over Michigan Tuesday and the Gophers played like a bunch of dogs against a dead Wolverines team. No NCAA Tournament for Minnesota. [Minneapolis Star-Tribune]

Pat Forde, in his latest Forde Minutes, highlights the nation’s best venues. [ESPN.com]

Purdue’s E’Twaun Moore and JaJaun Johnson are planning on coming back to Purdue next season. Good news for Boilermakers fans. [Indianapolis Star]

Vegas Watch ran an NCAA Tournament simulation and the favorite to win it all is…Duke. [Vegas Watch]

This probably means Craig Robinson won’t be the next head coach at DePaul. [The Sporting News]

Stewart Mandel tackles NCAA Tournament expansion which seems – unfortunately – more and more inevitable. There are not enough words in the English language to properly convey my disgust for the most hyper-sensitive, insanely needling, controlling and hypocritical organization in the U.S. But I just gave you five to start. [SI.com]

Tonight’s Must See Game

Connecticut at Notre Dame
Line: Notre Dame -2
KenPom: Notre Dame -2
TV: ESPN, 7 pm
Simply put, it’s a Big East bubble game. A must win for both teams, and probably more so for UConn after their home loss to Louisville Sunday. The Irish are one of the hottest teams in the conference, having ripped off recent wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, all without leading scorer Luke Harangody. The Irish big man will likely miss Wednesday’s game, his fifth straight, but that hasn’t stopped Notre Dame from making a late season surge toward the NCAA Tournament. If UConn wants to continue their push taking care of the ball will be paramount. Another 22 turnover performance will send them to the NIT.

No. 5 Kansas State at No. 2 Kansas
Line: Kansas -9.5
KenPom: Kansas -7
TV: ESPN Full Court, 8 pm
One of the biggest games of the season is not on national TV – which is unfathomable – so you better have access to ESPN Full Court or some other means of watching this game because this will have big implications on the national picture. Kansas State is playing for that final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and probably needs this win to secure that. Kansas is still considered to be the No. 1 overall seed by tournament prognosticators, but might that status change with a second straight loss? It’s a shame a national audience won’t see this one considering how good of a game these two gave us in their first meeting.

No. 4 Duke at Maryland
Line: Duke -1.5
KenPom: Duke -3
TV: ESPN, 9pm
Duke can wrap up the regular season ACC title or make the weekend much more interesting when they visit College Park. Maryland sits one game behind the Blue Devils in the conference standings with two games to go. So it’s all out there for the Terps. Win and tie the Blue Devils. Lose and settle for second. Also at stake? ACC Player of the Year consideration. It’s a two-man race between Duke’s Jon Scheyer and Maryland Greivis Vasquez. And many – including one ACC coach – believe it should be Vasquez

Others To Keep An Eye On: No. 2 Kentucky at Georgia, TCU at No. 8 New Mexico, No. 14 BYU at Utah, No. 20 Temple at Saint Louis