Ken Dixon's Blog-O-Rama

The Blogster just heard that second-term state Rep. Jason Bartlett, D-Bethel, vice chairman of the Appropriations Committee, was busted this week in Newtown for motor vehicle violations, including driving without a license; a suspended registration; and no insurance. To top it off, he was using a hand-held cell phone, with an outstanding cell-phone violation hanging fire. Talk about fodder for a potential Republican challenger in 2010.

Geary Maher, who’s soon retiring as director of the Legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Fiscal Analysis, is retiring while the gettin’ is good. Right now, he’s painting a very-grim picture indeed for lawmakers during a hearing in the Legislative Office Building.

Forget the generally minuscule $386-million deficit in the current budget. Starting in the budget that begins July 1 of next year, the state has a baseline deficit of $287 million, plus a potential for nearly $2 billion more in red ink if rosy projections fall apart, like a planned unrealistic $530.4 million in agency savings called lapses that over the last 10 years have averaged $218 million a year; like $200 million in budgeted savings within the state department of Social Services; like $1.29 billion in securitization: borrowing against a future, yet-undetermined revenue stream.

That brings us to Fiscal Year 2012 and 2013, which will have deficits of $3 billion and $3.2 billion respectively, according to OFA. Those tsunamis of red ink are expected because lawmakers this year are using the $1.4-billion Rainy Day Fund; the $1.5-billion federal stimulus program; plus the bonding of $925 million to retire the budget that ended June 30. (yes, that move was like getting a new credit card to pay off the exorbitant balances on your other cards) All those one-shot revenues that the Republican governor and the Democratic-controlled General Assembly are burning up, will make the state’s fiscal outlook very, very bad for the next few years.

And remember that bone to taxpayers: reducing the 6 percent sales tax down to 5.5 percent next January 1 if tax revenues can stay level? Well, they’re not coming in as hoped, so don’t plan on that meager relief as we head into the 2010, election cycle. For those of you who want to keep score at home, Democrats currently control the House 114-37 and the Senate 24-12, for now.