Was crunching some numbers for something else, and since I was almost halfway there: a little Pythagorean* look at the AHL after about a quarter of the season.
Again, this takes out all shootouts, win or lose, and makes them ties; it takes out overtime losses and makes them losses, so we’re more or less operating under pre-1993 rules (the four-on-four stuff notwithstanding).**
Through Wednesday’s games.
Team | “Real” pct. | Pyth. Pct. | “Overachieve” |
Toronto | .738 | .614 | .124 |
Hershey | .571 | .457 | .114 |
Providence | .696 | .640 | .056 |
Rochester | .417 | .362 | .055 |
Worcester | .421 | .367 | .054 |
Springfield | .560 | .514 | .046 |
Iowa | .438 | .393 | .044 |
Chicago | .727 | .687 | .040 |
Hartford | .640 | .607 | .033 |
Philadelphia | .696 | .676 | .020 |
Rockford | .563 | .551 | .011 |
Lake Erie | .341 | .331 | .010 |
Lowell | .370 | .360 | .010 |
Manitoba | .565 | .564 | .001 |
Grand Rapids | .417 | .417 | -.0006 |
Milwaukee | .500 | .509 | -.009 |
San Antonio | .560 | .580 | -.020 |
Houston | .432 | .453 | -.022 |
Quad City | .417 | .442 | -.026 |
Portland | .500 | .529 | -.029 |
Wilkes-Barre | .477 | .509 | -.032 |
Binghamton | .523 | .556 | -.033 |
Bridgeport | .350 | .390 | -.040 |
Norfolk | .354 | .397 | -.043 |
Peoria | .475 | .534 | -.059 |
Albany | .542 | .602 | -.061 |
Manchester | .341 | .403 | -.062 |
Hamilton | .386 | .481 | -.095 |
Syracuse | .400 | .513 | -.113 |
(Some fractional differences are from rounding three different numbers)
The high ends are, of course, hard to maintain. Part of Providence’s dip comes from four shootout wins and two overtime losses.
What does this mean? Um, well, you’re looking for a mathemagician. The effects of the OTLs and the shootout skew these numbers before they even get off the ground. The general theory, though, is that a team that has “overachieved” (has a better winning percentage than its Pythagoean number, based on goals for and goals against) is due to come back to the pack a bit; a team that has “underachieved” is due for a run.
*-For a refresher, here’s last year’s attempt, from a smidge later in December.
**-All caveats on that post from last year apply. Particularly the Simpsons reference.
—
Sound Tigers TV has gone live. Meanwhile, Micheal Haley left practice early with an injury. Maybe he can go Friday, but maybe not.
Colorado sent Wyatt Smith to Cleveland.
Jame Pollock bolted the Bears for Russia.