It's all right (triangular)

Was crunching some numbers for something else, and since I was almost halfway there: a little Pythagorean* look at the AHL after about a quarter of the season.

Again, this takes out all shootouts, win or lose, and makes them ties; it takes out overtime losses and makes them losses, so we’re more or less operating under pre-1993 rules (the four-on-four stuff notwithstanding).**

Through Wednesday’s games.

Team “Real” pct. Pyth. Pct. “Overachieve”
Toronto .738 .614 .124
Hershey .571 .457 .114
Providence .696 .640 .056
Rochester .417 .362 .055
Worcester .421 .367 .054
Springfield .560 .514 .046
Iowa .438 .393 .044
Chicago .727 .687 .040
Hartford .640 .607 .033
Philadelphia .696 .676 .020
Rockford .563 .551 .011
Lake Erie .341 .331 .010
Lowell .370 .360 .010
Manitoba .565 .564 .001
       
Grand Rapids .417 .417 -.0006
Milwaukee .500 .509 -.009
San Antonio .560 .580 -.020
Houston .432 .453 -.022
Quad City .417 .442 -.026
Portland .500 .529 -.029
Wilkes-Barre .477 .509 -.032
Binghamton .523 .556 -.033
Bridgeport .350 .390 -.040
Norfolk .354 .397 -.043
Peoria .475 .534 -.059
Albany .542 .602 -.061
Manchester .341 .403 -.062
Hamilton .386 .481 -.095
Syracuse .400 .513 -.113

(Some fractional differences are from rounding three different numbers)

The high ends are, of course, hard to maintain. Part of Providence’s dip comes from four shootout wins and two overtime losses.

What does this mean? Um, well, you’re looking for a mathemagician. The effects of the OTLs and the shootout skew these numbers before they even get off the ground. The general theory, though, is that a team that has “overachieved” (has a better winning percentage than its Pythagoean number, based on goals for and goals against) is due to come back to the pack a bit; a team that has “underachieved” is due for a run.

*-For a refresher, here’s last year’s attempt, from a smidge later in December.

**-All caveats on that post from last year apply. Particularly the Simpsons reference.

Sound Tigers TV has gone live. Meanwhile, Micheal Haley left practice early with an injury. Maybe he can go Friday, but maybe not.

Colorado sent Wyatt Smith to Cleveland.

Jame Pollock bolted the Bears for Russia.

Michael Fornabaio