Was interested to see this column by Bill Ballou in the Worcester Telegram & Gazette, because it meshed so well with something that had been bugging me.
Remember this a couple of weeks ago, about shooting first or second in the shootout? That stuff got me intrigued, and I want to keep the numbers up, to see which way the trends go; I started up a spreadsheet. Then I wanted more home-ice-advantage numbers to compare, so I added those to the right side of my spreadsheet…
Jpeg instead of a table, for once: This is a screencap of that right-hand side, AHL home-ice records since 1992-93 (the first year I had available), with overtime losses counted as straight losses, and with all shootout games counted as ties*. This season is updated through Jan. 2. (Well, Jan. 3, really, since there weren’t any games Thursday.)
Bill mentions a 55-percent home winning percentage. It’s indeed closer to 55 than to the 67 he mentions from a past generation, but even 55 may now be a couple of years out of date. That number is pretty solid from 1995 until 2006. And then… (insert blooping noise) .531 last year, and .524 this year.
While the trends Good Mr. Ballou mentions — low attendance, standardized rinks, the decline of the physical game — certainly sound like they could be factors in the fall, they were all in effect before 2006. So why the sudden drop? Did they all just reach critical mass last year? Both of the other drops happen to coincide with a fundamental change in the game: A point for an overtime loss became standard in 1995-96, and 1999-2000 is the first full year of four-on-score overtime (it was introduced in February 1999). The peak, 2004-05, is the lockout year and the first year of the shootout. I’m not sure why the former two would drag home teams down toward .500, nor why the lockout year would go the other way. But it’s funny that they stand up, anyway.
Any suggestions?*
*-Another look at some data makes me think that 2005-06 should have one fewer real win and one more tie. I will double-check eventually, but even so, it would only change the percentage to .5519.
**-Besides “get a life.” That ship has sailed.