Thinking way too much

Since we need some reason to watch the scoreboard now…

—-

Jeff Tambellini is in a four-way tie for the league lead in goals. He’s played fewer games, so that’d be a nice tiebreaker, right? Pascal Pelletier, Brett Sterling and Jason Krog all have 37.

Krog has 110 points, which with the 37 goals makes him 34th on the all-time single-season scoring list (breaking ties with goals). Three points would get him up to 24th, or 23rd if one was a goal; with the tiebreakers, he needs at least six points today to crack the top 20 (and were it just six, they’d all have to be goals).

Meanwhile, how about this: Bridgeport has been considered a defensive team, one that often struggles to score. There are 21 teams that the AHL recognizes as operating the same franchise over the past five years*; Bridgeport is 18th in goals over that time. Even so, the Sound Tigers could have two individuals lead the league in goals during that span, too.

*-Exceptions are Lowell**, Worcester, Toronto, Lake Erie, Rockford, Peoria, Quad City, Iowa.
**-The Jersey effect: Albany is behind Bridgeport on that list, and a combined Lowell Lock Monsters/Lowell Devils total would be, as well.

—–

Only six times in league history that I can see* has a place in the standings come down to something deeper than the wins tiebreaker**. We have a chance for it to happen twice this year. One is Syracuse-Manitoba, and as Lindsay Kramer lays out, that could conceivably come down to goal differential in the season series for home ice. (And, of course, now that he has done that, it won’t happen.) The other possibility is in the West: If San Antonio beats Quad City, and Rockford loses in regulation to Iowa; the Hogs and the Rampage would be tied in points and wins, and Rockford would hang onto the higher seed based on season series. Unfortunately, there’s no way that can determine home ice in a series between Rockford and San Antonio. See, Milwaukee and Houston wake up today tied in points and wins. But don’t bother looking up who won the season series***. The Ads and Aeros play tonight in Houston. And somebody’s got to win. So they won’t go to sleep tied in points or wins. Another reason to dump the shootout. Meanwhile, what a glorious mess in that division: Even though Chicago has run and hid, four other teams are all in the playoffs and all within two points.

*-2003-04, Rochester-Cleveland; 1996-97, Albany-Adirondack (for home ice, but lower-seeded Albany won); 1986-87, Rochester-Binghamton; 1975-76, Richmond-New Haven (for home ice, which Richmond got, and, um, New Haven didn’t win); 1971-72, Boston-Nova Scotia; 1954-55, Cleveland-Buffalo.
**-As we saw last year, none of those races determined a final playoff spot.
***-Milwaukee.

—–

Want no consolation whatsoever? With a win and a Peoria loss; or with an overtime loss and a Peoria regulation loss plus a Quad City loss of any sort, the Sound Tigers would have the best record in the AHL this year for a non-playoff team. Yep, they’d be No. 17.

Speaking of Quad City, the Flames’ 18 shootout appearances are a record. Translate them back, and the 18 tie games ties the record in the overtime era, set by St. John’s in 1997-98. (The New Haven Nighthawks’ 20 ties in 1972-73, that’s safe for one more season.)

—–

It really is all about scoring more goals than the other guy. Barring the most ridiculous scores you’ve ever seen, and barring a five-goal Hershey loss to Binghamton, every playoff team will have a positive goal differential. (Actually, Hershey’s shootout goal differential is minus-5, so the Bears are really plus-10 overall.) On the other hand, Peoria will be the only non-playoff team to score more goals than it allowed, barring a seven-goal loss to Chicago.

—–

Oh, heck. THE “REAL” STANDINGS going into the last day (and of course, remember, teams might not play the same way if there were no bonus points for overtime losses and shootout wins, blah blah blah, four-on-four changes everything, blah blah blah, different standings make for different decisions, blah blah blah, get with the times…)

Team                W    L    T     Pts
Eastern Conference
East
y-Wilkes-Barre      40   29   11    91
x-Hershey           40   32    7    87
x-Philadelphia      39   31    9    87
x-Albany            38   32    9    85
Bridgeport          33   36   10    76
Binghamton          27   40   12    66
Norfolk             24   46   10    58

Atlantic
x-Hartford          46   22   11   103
x-Providence        44   20   15   103
x-Portland          40   31    9    89
x-Manchester        34   36   10    78
Springfield         29   39   11    69
Worcester           31   37   10    64
Lowell              21   50    8    50

Western Conference
North
y-Toronto           49   23    7   105
x-Syracuse          43   28    8    94
x-Manitoba          42   30    7    91
Hamilton            33   36   10    76
Grand Rapids        27   43   10    64
Lake Erie           21   46   12    54
Rochester           18   52    9    45

West
y-Chicago           50   24    5   105
x-Rockford          37   30   12    86
x-San Antonio       37   30   12    86
x-Milwaukee         39   33    7    85
x-Houston           37   31   11    85
Peoria              33   36   10    76
Quad City           26   35   18    70
Iowa                30   41    8    68

x-clinched playoff berth. y-clinched division.

No changes to the 16 playoff teams, though some seeds change. The in-or-out races are just about as decisive (except in the East, where it’s even more decisive; Hershey’s shootout woes kept things competitive). Interestingly, the West is even tighter; that Milwaukee-Houston game would still mean something, as could the San An-Rockford season series. (Still Rockford.) And how about Providence and Hartford? The P-Broons have 11 shootout victories; Hartford, just three.

—–

I should be asleep.

Michael Fornabaio