One tangent leads to another

Upon further reflection/digging/restless searching that hopefully was recorded accurately, ’cause it was like 5 in the morning and was keeping me up, and now it’s two hours later (no, couldn’t have been the coffee):

Two Providence thoughts:

–The only two Atlantic teams that have winning records against the East Division are the Bruins (4-1 — it’s Philadelphia) and Portland (7-4). (In doing these, I converted all shootouts back to ties, because that’s what we do around here, and overtime losses became good ol’ losses.) Conversely, the only East teams with a losing record against the Atlantic were Albany (3-6-1) and Norfolk (5-8-1). Overall, the East has a 31-23-5 edge, though that’s skewed by Lowell (2-8-2).

–Providence has taken a lead to the second intermission 17 times. The Bruins are 17-0-0-0 in those cases. Wait — it gets better. The Bruins have taken a lead to the first intermission 20 times, second only to Rockford’s 21. The Bruins have not lost one of them. Not one. Not even in four-on-score. Not even in the bonus round. None. Nil. Nunca.

Hershey is 21-0-0-0 when leading after two; Iowa, 11-0-0-0. When leading after one, Portland is all of 6-0-0-0. But Hershey has blown one game when leading after one. Iowa, too, in overtime. Portland has coughed up one when leading after two.

So, basically, don’t fall behind the P-Broons. Especially if you’re from the East Division.

——-

Noticed one of those while looking for the other.

And running into it led to still another realization.

Only three teams are better than points-.500 when trailing after one period, and one other is points-.500 on the nose. One of those teams (5-4-1-0 when losing after one) is the only team above p-.500 when trailing after two (6-5-1-0).

That’d be the Bridgeport Sound Tigers.

(Trailing after one: Manitoba 5-4-0-1, Milwaukee 5-4-0-0, Houston 5-5-0-4)

Now I’m wondering if that has inflated their record a bit through the first half. Most teams are far below .500 when trailing after two; the only other team to win six is Syracuse, and the Crunch are 6-13-0-1.

Bridgeport can’t keep that up, can it?

Last year, Providence was 7-14-1-1 when trailing after two, the closest to .500, and it just didn’t trail (or else it finally won in a shootout). Two years ago, there were a few teams at least within hailing distance of .500, but none really better than Norfolk’s 9-14-1-2. In ’05-06, Grand Rapids was 10-15-0-1, and Hartford was 9-15-1-1. The year before that, Rochester was 7-15-2-0.

And then before that predates the shootout era, so it’s apples to oranges, and it’s already way too late in the evening to be doing those conversions. Still, back to 1994-95, the earliest year I’ve got that data, no team came shockingly close.

Approach .500 is possible but rare; to actually stay above would be monumental. League-wide, teams are playing about .200 hockey when trailing after two — actually, .199 this year, .200 last year. That’s slightly up from the previous two years, when it was .188 and .186. Every five times a team trails after two, it comes away with about two points. Bridgeport has 13 points when trailing after two periods; if it played to average, it would have picked up five. Take away those eight points right now, and Bridgeport is tied for fourth with Philly.

Consider these (though the first halves of “these” come from Howe SportsData and aren’t quite shootout-clear, while the second halves are from LeagueStat and had better be right): Last year on Jan. 9, Chicago was something like 4-5 when trailing after two, as was Providence, and Philadelphia was 4-6-1, maybe give or take an OTL/SOL point. The Wolves finished 4-13; Providence finished 7-14-1-1; Philly finished 4-20-1-1.

Two years ago on Jan. 8, the Penguins were something like 6-5-1; they finished 9-20-1-1.

It ain’t easy.

So I guess the question is, are the Sound Tigers playing to their potential, points-wise, and this is just a blip that has helped them get there? Or is this “blip” boosting their points total beyond where it should be, and it’s due for a correction when (to be kind, if) the trail-after-two corrects?

(Pick away. I’ve gone and exhausted myself, finally. But if you’re really wondering, I’ve got them underachieving, compared to their pythagorean number, by about a half a standings point — although they’ve had very good shootout luck.)

Michael Fornabaio