Only in Bridgeport

Today’s Q Poll shows again why moolah matters. But the gubernatorial race is still wide open.

Tom Foley will continue to maintain a nice lead until the largely unknown GOP gubernatorial candidates launch their faces and voices electronically.

On the Democratic side Ned Lamont leads former Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy by 10 points. Lamont is loaded, and like Foley will burn his own dough. Malloy doesn’t have that luxury, but leads in political support which should bump his name recognition if he secures the endorsement at the party convention in May. Then it’s on to a hotly contested August primary.

Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz has a commanding lead over former State Majority Leader George Jepsen for the Democratic nomination for attorney general. That will change as the relatively unknown Jepsen, who has party support, builds name recognition and frames SuBy as a shameless self promoter who’ll be campaigning for Joe Lieberman’s U.S. Senate seat if she’s elected AG. Oh, wait, isn’t Susan already campaigning for Joe’s seat? Why wait until the last minute.  A state judge will decide if SuBy has the legal credentials to hold the AG job.

The Q Poll:

“Undecided” is the big leader in the Democratic and Republican primary race for Governor, but former ambassador Tom Foley has gained some ground in the Republican race.

Among Democrats, 44 percent of voters are undecided, while businessman Ned Lamont gets 28 percent to Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy’s 18 percent. No other candidate tops 4 percent.

On the Republican side, Foley has emerged as a leader in the primary campaign with 30 percent, but 50 percent are undecided. No other candidate tops 4 percent.

“Like Linda McMahon, Tom Foley is the only candidate for governor who is on TV, which helps him break away from the Republican pack. Even Foley, however, is largely unknown to Republicans and the big winner is still undecided,” Dr. Schwartz said.

Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz leads the Democratic primary for Attorney General with 54 percent, followed by former State Sen. George Jepsen at 10 percent, with no other candidate topping 2 percent and 31 percent undecided.

Undecided gets 66 percent of the Republican vote, with 13 percent for State Sen. Andrew Roraback and no other candidate above 9 percent.

Lamont gets a 43 – 13 percent favorability among Democrats, with 42 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

Bysiewicz gets a 59 – 10 percent favorability among Democrats, with 29 percent who don’t know enough.

For all other candidates for Governor or Attorney General, the “don’t know enough about them” number among voters in their own party is 55 percent or higher.

Connecticut voters approve 59 – 34 percent of the job Gov. Jodi Rell is doing and disapprove 59 – 28 percent of the job the State Legislature is doing.

“Despite negative headlines, Susan Bysiewicz is still way ahead in the Democratic primary for Attorney General. One has to wonder how long she can maintain her big lead if the various controversies surrounding her campaign continue.”

From March 9 – 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,451 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 549 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and 387 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

 (Check out my daily webzine at www.onlyinbridgeport.com)

Nice to have plenty of loot to build name recognition. Linda McMahon spends millions on television, radio, direct mail then — swoosh — the effort juices her to a polling lead among candidates for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination. Former Congressman Rob Simmons and economic guru Peter Schiff could be eating her dust if they don’t get up and stay up on the air. Problem is they cannot compete with her spending. Problem for Linda? Democrat Dick Blumenthal just moves along at his pace, kicks out press releases in his role as state attorney general, and maintains a huge lead in head-to-head matchups against any Republican.

Money matters big time in these races. When Quinnipiac releases poll results for gubernatorial leaders look for Tom Foley to be the leading Republican. Why? Moolah. What about Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele? No one knows him. And he has no money.

Q Poll below:

Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, surging from a 10-point deficit two months ago, now leads former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons 44 – 34 percent in the Republican primary for the Connecticut U.S. Senate contest, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This reverses a 37 – 27 percent Simmons lead in a January 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest poll, businessman Peter Schiff has 9 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal tops Merrick Alpert 81 – 6 percent in a Democratic Senate primary and stomps his Republican opponents:

•61 – 28 percent over McMahon, compared to 64 – 23 percent January 14;

•62 – 26 percent over Simmons, compared to 62 – 27 percent;

•64 – 21 percent over Schiff, compared to 66 – 19 percent.

Blumenthal gets a 79 – 13 percent approval rating, continuing a 10-month string of approval ratings of 78 points or higher, and a 70 – 18 percent favorability rating.

“What explains Linda McMahon’s rise in the polls? Money. She is the only Senate candidate on TV right now. She quickly has become as well-known and well-liked among Republicans as the former frontrunner for the Republican nomination, three-term Congressman Rob Simmons,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

“In the general election, however, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has a commanding lead over all three potential Republican opponents. Blumenthal’s approval rating continues near 80 percent. While money could make the difference in the Republican primary, it will have less of an effect in the general election. It is very hard to change the public’s opinion of an elected official they have known and liked for 20 years.”

Favorability ratings for other Connecticut U.S. Senate candidates are:

•Alpert: 93 percent don’t know enough about him to form an opinion;

•McMahon: 36 – 26 percent with 36 percent who don’t know enough about her;

•Simmons: 38 – 21 percent with 40 percent who don’t know enough about him;

•Schiff: 85 percent don’t know enough about him.

Connecticut voters say 46 – 36 percent they prefer a candidate who relies on campaign donations, rather than a wealthy candidate who relies on his/her own funds. Results are similar among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters.

The next Connecticut U.S. Senator should generally support President Barack Obama’s policies, voters say 56 – 36 percent.

Connecticut voters approve 54 – 42 percent of the job President Obama is doing, compared to 55 – 41 percent January 14 and Obama’s lowest score in the state since he was inaugurated. Voters disapprove 52 – 42 percent of the way the President is handling health care and disapprove 50 – 46 percent of the way he is handling the economy, but approve 54 – 39 percent of the way he is handling foreign policy.

Voters mostly disapprove 48 – 40 percent of the proposed health care reform pending in Congress. Democrats approve 68 – 22 percent, while disapproval is 87 – 7 percent among Republicans and 50 – 34 percent among independent voters. The proposed health care legislation is too complicated, 59 percent say, while 32 percent say changes must be complex to be effective.

Only 16 percent of Connecticut voters trust the government in Washington to do the right thing almost all of the time or most of the time, while 53 percent say the federal government does right some of the time and 30 percent say “hardly ever.”

But only 23 percent of Connecticut voters say they are Tea Party supporters. That group includes 50 percent of Republicans, 4 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of independent voters.

“While very few voters trust the government in Washington to do what is right most of the time, President Barack Obama still gets a 54 percent job approval,” Dr. Schwartz said.

 (Check out my daily webzine at www.onlyinbridgeport.com)

I’ve covered lots of federal court trials through the years — was a key witness in one as well — but I can’t recall anything like what’s playing out in New Haven where developer James Botti is on trial for allegedly greasing Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti.

Sounds straight forward right? A developer greases a public official for favorable treatment. Except the guy the government accuses Botti of bribing isn’t in the court room. In fact, hasn’t been charged with anything. Bizarre. Why hasn’t the government charged Lauretti? Because Botti doesn’t want to cooperate with the government. The government’s case against Lauretti is thin without Botti’s help. The government won a tax conviction on Botti in a previous case, but he still wouldn’t fold. So now a jury is hearing a bunch of stuff about how business is done in Shelton by Lauretti and Botti and whole bunch of others. Lauretti’s red meat on the government barbecue but has no way of clearing his name while this plays out.

The foundation for the government’s case against Botti is work he performed on the mayor’s home which the government alleges was paid only after they read the news of former Governor John Rowland being in the same mess, and a $9,000 Christmas party Botti threw at Lauretti’s restaurant, attended by 65 people or so, as a way to keep the mayor happy. The check was made out in the name of Lauretti’s restaurant, not to the mayor himself. This stuff is peanuts compared to the Rowland case and the government’s conviction of former Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim.

Chris Halpin, one of the FBI agents working the case, is an excellent federal investigator. He worked the Ganim case. But federal prosecutors, not FBI agents, decide whether a case will be brought to trial. I gotta think Botti is a real toothache for prosecutors.

Willie Dow, Botti’s lawyer, is a seasoned criminal defense specialist. Every time he questions a witness for the government he poses the same declaration: you don’t see Mark Lauretti in the court room, do you? Nope, he’s not there. The government had a land use commissioner wired up for years secretly recording conversations he had with a variety of Shelton officials and developers. I maintain if federal agents spend a few years in any town, any city they will come up with something. What surprises me is how relatively little the government has shown in comparison to the effort. Some of it is unfair. When the government doesn’t have the evidence goods on a target to bring a charge they have a special name for that: “unindicted co-conspirator.” Translation: “we think you’re dirty, but we don’t have enough to charge you.” And a number of Shelton developers, according to the government, are part of that club.

The government may well secure a conviction of Botti, but that will come in part because boastful Botti doesn’t exactly come across as a sympathetic figure in the recorded conversations.

The closest case I can recall to this, although not a public corruption case, was the federal indictment of Bridgeport mobster Frank Piccolo and his cousin Guido Penosi accused of extorting money from entertainer Wayne Newton. In 1981, Piccolo was murdered in Bridgeport’s North End. Despite that, federal prosecutors moved ahead with the case against Penosi. Penosi’s lawyer did the only sensible thing he could do under the circumstances. He blamed the dead guy. “It was Piccolo. It was Piccolo. It was Piccolo.”

The jury agreed. Penosi was found not guilty. 

What will Willie Dow do? Stay tuned.

(Check out my daily webzine www.onlyinbridgeport.com)

Say what? No Jodi’s Jail!

It’s not easy for a high-profile pol to reverse course. Governor Jodi Rell did that today when she announced Bridgeport was not a fit for her proposed juvenile detention center for girls that drew howls from the local neighborhood and political communities.

Nice to know Jodi wouldn’t be so stubborn in her final months. Now, if she’d just invest that $20 million on a real tax generator for the city. I’m not being greedy, am I?

(Check out my daily webzine at www.onlyinbridgeport.com)

Although not running for governor former Congressman Christopher Shays has this to say about the state of the state. From www.ctcapitolreport.com

Betsi and I wrestled with the fact I would relish the challenge of leading our state; felt a moral obligation to step forward; and believed I could effectively move our state government in a different direction.

The fact is “the state is in deep shit.” I say it that way because folks in Hartford (press included) and the public seem to have no clue how bad things are.

As things stand now the next Governor is going to have to veto the bi-annual budget and run the state by executive order for months and be prepare to do it as long as it takes to get the General Assembly and state employees to renegotiate employee benefits.

We have a deficit this year of three quarters of a billion dollars and projected deficits in the future of nearly 3 billions dollars annually. Our debt service is way too high. And as bad as our 9 billion dollar pension liability is, it is not even close to the 24 billion dollar liability in health care benefits owed to state employees and retirees.

It is clear wealth and jobs go where they are welcomed and they are clearly not welcomed in the State of Ct. So the long term solution is not going to be taxing the wealthy and job creators even more. They are leaving.

We need to get our financial house in order while at the same time convincing those with wealth and the folks who create jobs, employers, to stay here. And we need even more of them. That’s a challenge I could have sunk my teeth in. But for the present I have a different role.

As much as I would have loved to run and serve I know Betsi and I made the right decision. I need to do a better job of getting our own financial house in order and help elect candidates to public office who will tell the truth and make the tough decisions that will put our state and country in a better place for our kids and their kids.

(Check out my daily webzine at www.onlyinbridgeport.com)

Merrick Alpert had everything to gain.

Dick Blumenthal had everything to lose.

Bottom line of the debate between the two Democratic candidates for Chris Dodd’s U.S. Senate seat: Dick lives and Merrick rises. Alpert went right after the state attorney general’s rep as a relentless litigator. We’ve had 20 years of lawsuits and 20 years of press conferences. Dick’s reply: lawsuits create jobs. Really? For lawyers, maybe?

Dick should embrace a new campaign slogan: file a lawsuit, create a job.

(Check out my daily webzine at www.onlyinbridgeport.com)

I gotta think if most Connecticut elections took place in early spring rather than the fall many more incumbents would be plowed under.

There’s the legend of Bridgeport’s Depression-era Mayor Jasper McLevy who claimed “God put the snow there…let him take it away.” Well, Jasper never actually said those words but the declaration stuck to the penny-pinching Socialist after some local scribes needled city Public Works Director Pete Brewster about his snow-removal efforts as he was tipping a few beers at a local pub. Let the guy who put it there take it away! he snapped. And from that day on he was known as Pete “Sunshine” Brewster who relied on sunny days to remove the snow. And McLevy received credit for something he never uttered.

In 1974 Governor Thomas Meskill committed the unpardonable act of vacationing in Vermont while a storm buried the state. Voters iced him come election time. Ella Grasso never forgot what voters did to her predecessor. Ella became the Snow Queen in charge of the Blizzard of 1978.

If we had elections in the spring you wouldn’t be hearing so much about out-of-control spending leading to budgets deficits. Everyone would be screaming I promise to plow your streets!

(Check out my daily webzine at www.onlyinbridgeport.com)

Former Congressman Christopher Shays has sided with Maryland crabs over Blue Point oysters. (I’ll take Connecticut oysters any day.)

Shays, who moved to Maryland several months ago,  announced his decision Tuesday morning to friends in an email and www.ctcapitolreport.com that he’ll not be a candidate for governor.

Shays recently placed a deposit on a condo in Black Rock but said he would do that irrespective of a run for governor because he also wants a place in Connecticut.

(Check out my daily webzine at www.onlyinbridgeport.com.)