Democrat Richard Blumenthal apparently has weathered charges that he exaggerated his military service in Vietnam for years and is running as strongly as ever against both his Republican challengers in Connecticut’s race for the U.S. Senate.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Connecticut finds Blumenthal with 56% support versus 33% for Linda McMahon, the officially endorsed GOP candidate. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. McMahon has come under criticism recently as people have focused on her role in World Wresting Entertainment, a corporation that one conservative pundit compares to the Gulf oil spill as “a relentless gusher of pollution.”
Blumenthal, the state’s longtime attorney general, earns 55% of the vote in a match-up with Wall Street investment banker Peter Schiff, who hopes to collect enough signatures by Tuesday to force McMahon into an August 10 primary contest. Given that match-up, three percent (3%) like another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.
With both Republicans earning roughly the same support, the new findings suggest that the race continues to be largely about Blumenthal.
The current figures put the race back where it has been for most of the year, a likely Democratic victory in a challenging year for the Democratic Party. However, the numbers also reflect a big change in the race from the days immediately following a New York Times report suggesting that Blumenthal had exaggerated his military record. The Times is an influential publication among Democrats, and, in the heat of the moment, their story caused some Democrats to have doubts about Blumenthal.
Just after that story broke, Blumenthal held a very narrow 48% to 45% lead over McMahon.
However, at that time, Connecticut voters still held a very positive view overall of Blumenthal and the candidate had just begun to respond to the charges. Even in the midst of the allegations, 66% offered a favorable opinion of Blumenthal.
This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted on June 1, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Now, with some time to evaluate both the story and the candidate’s response, 49% say the issue is at least somewhat important in determining how they’ll vote, while another 49% view them as unimportant. These figures include 26% who say the issue is Very Important and 18% who say they are Not At All Important.
Voters who view the misstatements as Very Important strongly favor the Republicans. But even those who regard the misstatements as somewhat important lean slightly toward Blumenthal, while those who are more dismissive of the comments overwhelmingly favor the Democrat.
Blumenthal now carries male voters by nearly two-to-one and female voters by a slightly smaller margin regardless of which Republican he faces. Voters not affiliated with either party give the Democrat nearly 60% support.
Blumenthal benefits from an electorate that is more supportive of Democrats than voters across the nation. While 60% of voters nationwide favor repeal of the national health care bill, just 48% feel that way in Connecticut, while 40% of the state’s voters oppose repeal. This includes 38% who Strongly Favor repeal and 30% who Strongly Oppose it.
Both Republicans earn about 65% of the votes of those who Strongly Favor repeal. Blumenthal gets more than 90% support from those who are Strongly Opposed.
Blumenthal is viewed Very Favorably by 42% of Connecticut voters, up seven points from the last survey before the New York Times story broke. He is seen Very Unfavorably by 19%.
Fifteen percent (15%) have a Very Favorable opinion of McMahon, the millionaire former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, while 30% view her Very Unfavorably.
For Schiff, Very Favorables are 10% and Very Unfavorables nine percent (9%). But he is far less well-known than the other two candidates.