SPB's High School Football

1. “The fall was pretty hard for teams like Shelton, ND-WH, Sthington and N Britain despite competitive losses… unfairly, I think.” – SPB

   I get your overall point Sean, that these are good teams who just had a tough early schedule. But what are the voters supposed to do? There have only been two games played, and if a team has already lost one, they need to drop and drop hard.

   I know you were having fun with your hypothetical math equations yesterday but the games are played on the field and not in people’s heads. Voters have to go by the results that they see. When you start giving teams a free pass for losses, it becomes a sitaution where teams are rewarded for past history and for the league they play in rather than what they have proven this year.

   The best part of this is that it is still early and it will all settle out. Say you think Masuk or Ansonia is ranked too high even though they are not that good. If you’re right, then they will lose eventually and drop. If they never lose, then obviously they weren’t that bad. Say you think Shelton is a good team who unfairly dropped. If they are a good team, they will keep winning and fight their way back in.

   Comment by TRG — September 28th, 2009 @ 8:26 pm

2. i think pompy would beat ansonia by 20. still some love to ansonia though, should be around 11-14 other than that it looks ok to me.

   Comment by nerf — September 28th, 2009 @ 9:25 pm

3. Masuk should be #1!

   Comment by MasukRules — September 28th, 2009 @ 9:51 pm

4. Sean- From your experience which polls are generally the most accurate? Coaches, Media, etc?

   Comment by Frank — September 28th, 2009 @ 11:01 pm

5. I think the top 10 all look really good except for Masuk. The only poll that I think has Masuk rated slightly correct is SPB’s elite 8, which just barely has them at #8 and they should be out pretty quickly. There are teams like Wilbur Cross and Ridgefield that are talented teams that have to play great competition week after week.

   I know this statement will hurt the feeling of all the Masuk loyal fans who write in every week but facts are facts. This team would be a 5-5 team in the CCC, SCC or FCIAC. Before you Masuk people speak your feelings try to comment on the facts:

   Fact 1 – Masuk ( a L division team ) plays 9 out of 10 games against teams in lower divisions. What really stinks about this team is they are an L division school and actually have 4 games againt S and SS division teams and the other 5 against M teams. Every other team in the top 10 lists plays 70% or more of their games in the same or higher division.

   Fact 2 – Masuk has a very small team. No size on the line. They only have a couple big lineman. Most of the real top 10 teams have a dozen or more.

   SPB, I will look forward to your thoughts on a team that wins a lot of games against such an unbalanced schedule.

   Masuk supporters, Sorry but it is what it is.

   Comment by 44 backer — September 28th, 2009 @ 11:16 pm

6. Ouch, 44.

   I’m going to let your contemporaries handle this for the time being…

   Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 1:05 am

7. Frank, the polls are what they are. You’ll see some differences consistent with a coach’s mind and a sportswriter’s mind. Both weigh different factors in determining the order, but we all pretty much end up at the same conclusion.

   Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 1:08 am

8. hahaha masuk 5-5 in the ccc??????????? ask conard, windsor, and newington if they would be 5-5. you have to be joking. you have lost credibility 44backer. oh and Masuk has also beat ridgefield twice in the last few years.

   Comment by realist — September 29th, 2009 @ 9:01 am

9. You make some good points 44, but I’d offer these points:

   1. Last year, Masuk won the L Title by winning scores of 56-13 and 50-14. To say they completely dominated is an understatement. And they basically played the same schedule last year. Is it as strong as an SCC schedule? No. But they scrimmage teams like Greenwich, Shelton, New Britain, etc. You can’t punish them for schedule – it’s a league schedule. Even with a weaker schedule they showed in the states that they deserved the #2 (or 1) ranking last year.

   2. While you could dismiss my first point as “that was last year”, this is true. But they return many of their starters and added a QB who led his team to a championship last year. They have some speedy RBs and receivers.

   3. They might be smaller than some other teams up front, but speed sometimes counteracts size – especially on the D-line(we will have to see if this is the case for them). They also have a two platoon system, whereas many high school teams have guys that play on both sides of the ball. This is a huge disadvantage as games progress.

   Are they as good as last year? Most likely not. I’ve only seen Hand, Hamden, Cheshire and Shelton play so far this year. I’ll look forward to the anticipated Pomperaug/Masuk SWC Championship (which could also be a preview of the L games).

   So which game is the one to see this week???

   Comment by HSFB Fan — September 29th, 2009 @ 9:29 am

10. people need to stop talking about how easy their schedule is that is who they play just win and you as well can get in the states i know it was a hard lose but if your D could stop someone when it counts you would win SORRY 44 GOOG LUCK.

    Comment by MASUK JUST WINS — September 29th, 2009 @ 9:50 am

11. The SWC had 2 state champions last year and the conference still doesn’t get any respect. Please don’t name drop Wilbur Cross and Ridgefield and compare them to Masuk. Masuk has the best Quarterback in the SWC! They have a solid running game and the defense will jell and be a force later in the season. Lets not talk about size when there are alot of big guys riding these top 10 teams’ benches. This Masuk team is coming off winning a state championship something you probably have no experience doing. Newington is a CCC team and look what happened to them last year against The Panthers.

    Comment by MasukRules — September 29th, 2009 @ 10:09 am

12. Spb–It appears that a team who plays no one and goes undefeated or has one loss is not penalized for their non competetive schedule. Let’s say that Cheshire or Hamden ends up with one loss and a lesser team goes undefeated. The voters somehow reward the undefeated team and punish a one loss team without taking into consideration on who they play. Is that how it works?

    Comment by jjs — September 29th, 2009 @ 10:52 am

13. That is an interesting point 44 made about Masuk’s schedule. Their only game against a large school is Newtown. The two other large SWC schools (New Milford and Pomperaug) are not on their schedule. Why? Is the schedule set up to give them an easy ride to the states? The SCC teams in class L all play each other and LL teams and will most likely stay home with 2+ losses.

    Comment by Dave k — September 29th, 2009 @ 11:02 am

14. How can Ansonia be in the Top 10 in all the polls, and St. Joseph of Trumbull not? Ansonia on sqweaked by Crosby 16-13 this past weekend, while St. Joes crushed Crosby 37-0 in Week 1…

    Comment by SJOB — September 29th, 2009 @ 11:10 am

15. It’s not Masuk’s fault many tams in the SWC fell of the cliff. (Brookfield and Bunnell). It’s to bad they can’t play in LL because they will not get tested in L. The only 2 teams there are West Haven and NDWH and neither will make it due to the rugged SCC schedule they play and knock each other off. It’s kind of like NC in the MM. They win all these titles and it’s not a knock on the coaches or the kids but the MM is terrible. The only decent team is Hand and it looks like they may not get in due to the brutal schedule they play. I would still rather see hand with 4 losses play NC in the final of MM then some 1 loss team that will get their brains beat in AKA..Bristol Eastern or East Lyme…AWFUL Same with MAsuk in L. It looks like it might be Cross or Simsbury by default. Any one who knows football has to admit that Masuk and NC have it easy in those classes.

    Comment by Fear the bird — September 29th, 2009 @ 12:38 pm

16. SJOB – For SPB’s reasoning see his blog titled “Transitive Law High School Football logic”. He clearly explains how “common opponent” is a useless tool in evaluating teams that don’t play one another and compete in completely dissimilar conferences. Voters instead should focus on tangible comparatives, such as “it’s Ansonia, so they’re better”.

    Comment by Dr. Von Nostran — September 29th, 2009 @ 1:47 pm

17. LOL Dr. Van Nostrand

    “…is it your contention, that despite the weekly empirical evidence, voters don’t know what the heck they’re talking about?”

    “My contention? …Why, yes, that’s my contention.”

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 1:59 pm

18. Actually, SJOB … based on the voting (and the Transitive Law), the coaches clearly looked at Ansonia’s 16-13 squeaker vs. Crosby, St. Joseph’s pasting of Crosby and Wilton; and Hillhouse’s 20-18 loss to North Haven and decided to drop the Chargers. St. Joseph picked up votes. …the Writers, clearly didn’t see it that way (not I, said the fly). You can probably blame that on reputation, I’d think. Who knows … Polls are fun and dumb at the same time.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 2:52 pm

19. I moved to Shelton 8 years ago from Texas. I have no team that I follow around here, but I LOVE high school football and get to about 15 games a year including playoffs. First, there are way to many divisions in this stae. It’s crazy and I still don’t think that I have it figured out yet. Here is my take on this. Alot of people seem to be either jealous of Masuk, or just so pissed off at MusukRules that they trash them for no reason. I saw them twice last season, semi’s and championship game. They were a machine that could have beaten either of those teams by 100 if they wanted to (or were allowed to, another crazy Connecticut thing). Why does everyone always just bring them up? Why not New Canaan, or Hand or Ansonia that all play for the “small school” titles but end up number 1 in the polls. There is a definate Masuk biased here.
    That said, I saw the scrimmage at Shelton, they are not as good as last season. Hamden is great, saw them against Hand, scary. New Canaan looks really good with the two quarterback system and Glastonbury is still loaded and their Quarterback is a beast. I have not seen Pomperaug yet, I’m going to try and get there this weekend. I think that the rest will be 1 or 2 loss teams. I don’t see another great champion this season other than maybe Hamden.

    Comment by No Axe To Grind — September 29th, 2009 @ 2:58 pm

20. JJS – Somewhat. Voters do reward any teams for being undefeated; but they’ll almost always pick larger or more reputable undefeated teams over the smaller ones. Some voters say, a loss is a loss is a loss. Others consider the team’s schedule before deciding whether to give a pass or not. But, in the end, an undefeated team will likely always get No. 1 with only few exceptions.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:03 pm

21. Humble suggestion: woudl it be possible to list the top 20 or top 25 like it was done most weeks last year. Easier on the eyes.

    Thanks SPB. Keep up the good work.

    Comment by TRG — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:05 pm

22. Absolutely, TRG. Forgot we did that… From now on, all of the poll teams will be put into a table format.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:07 pm

23. Hamden won’t win LL. I think thet get upset in the semi’s by someone who used to being there (Greenwich, Cheshire, Staples??)

    Comment by Fear the bird — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:08 pm

24. OK here we go Masuk lovers with all your unconventional wisdom. I will try to put this in perspective once and for all and will you then promise to let it drop so we can have an intelligent blog about the rating system. And SPB you will have to drop your “on the fence position” and comment on the following facts. I think it will make clear why the ratings system has to take difficulty of schedule into consideration when rating a team.

    You mentioned that you should be a top rated team because you beat both Windsor and Newington. Well, they are exactly like you. They played no competition all year which allows them to get to the playoffs and play other average teams like Masuk in the L Division. First let me identify the CCC power teams = New Britain, Southington, Glastonbury, Manchester and Simsbury. Both Newington and Windsor only played one of these teams each last year and as you can guess, windsor lost to Simsbury and Newington lost to New Britain. They beat all the rest of the below average teams on their schedule and went to the playoffs and got beat by a better below average team.

    Here is the deal why you won’t see Newington and Windsor in the playoffs anytime in the near future. They have now added all of these teams to their schedule this year and surprise, surprise Newington is 0-2 with loses to New Britain and Simsbury and Windsor is 1-1 with a lose to Simsbury. They will both end up 5-5. Now here is my logic and please back me up SPB. If Masuk had to play the same tough Division L schedules as Wilbur Cross, Notre Dame, West Haven, Simsbury and Middletown they would be a 5-5 team and never make it to the playoffs. This would allow very good teams that deserve to be in the playoffs a shot even with 2 losses.

    Do you think I have way too much time on my hands.

    Comment by 44 backer — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:10 pm

25. 44 correct. Add salt to the wound. Everyone likes to talk about scrimmages on these blogs as well as some of their best opponets comes in the scrimmages. I don’t put alot into scrimmages never had never will but ……A decent Greenwich team (Far from loaded from thier standards) demolished Masuk in a scrimmage 43-20.Did that help backer?? LOL

    Comment by Fear the bird — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:18 pm

26. 44 backer — I’m going to echo No Axe To Grind and wonder why all the hating on Masuk (though I can probably guess). …That said, I think you’re underestimating the program. Would they be in the playoffs every year if they played an SCC Division I schedule? Probably not … but they’d be there, maybe with the regularity of, say, Shelton.

    The difference between Masuk and Shelton is that in Shelton’s league you can’t hide a so-so team. Average teams get eaten alive. Just ask Notre Dame-WH or West Haven. In Masuk’s league, you can have an OK team and still make the playoffs. Ultimately, however, those teams never win titles. A legit team is a legit team, and a legit program is a legit program no matter the league in which you play. So, I’d say Masuk would do nicely in the SCC, the FCIAC, or to a greater extent, the CCC. It’s just that there would be slightly more 7-3, 6-4 seasons.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:31 pm

27. Reg season is one thing, your stuck with who is in your league.

    However, if this State had a better playoff system than there would be no cupcakes for Class L & MM come playoff time.

    Comment by PBL — September 29th, 2009 @ 3:41 pm

28. And you know what I think we should do for the playoffs, PBL… LL&L together, MM&M, SS&S.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 4:15 pm

29. Wow…reading today’s posts I feel the need to quote Judge Chamberlain Haller. “That was a lucid, intelligent, well-thought out objection.”
    As in college football, discussing the imperfections of the system is almost as much fun as discussing the actual games.
    The SCC Division I provides the best match-ups week in and week out. As a High School football fan it’s the most entertaining conference to watch. The downside is that they’re punished in the polls and post-season eligibility because they play tough games week in and week out.
    Ansonia and Masuk have GREAT programs, but the conferences remind me of the old MBIAC. SJ and Prep would cruise through the regular season with one or two big games during the year, then play in the States well rested compared to teams in tougher conferences.
    You certainly can’t punish a program for beating the teams on their schedule, but it would make the regular season more interesting if some of the games were more competitive.

    Comment by Dr. Von Nostran — September 29th, 2009 @ 4:29 pm

30. Also, I was wondering if someone with time on their hands (44 backer?) has tracked the conference vs. conference games for the first two weeks. It will be interesting to see how these play out throughout the season.

    Comment by Dr. Von Nostran — September 29th, 2009 @ 4:34 pm

31. I think there are valid points on both sides of the “soft schedule vs tough schedule” argument. But I feel I must refer back to the very first post on this thread.

    Games are played on the field. Voters (and the CIAC playoff criteria) can only be based on the results from actual games. You are on a very slippery slope whenever you start making assumptions on what might happen or what could happen.

    Lets use a potential example from class SS at the end of the year. Is it possible that a 3 loss St Joes team is actually just as good or better than a 1 loss or undefeated Montville team? Of course that is possible. But how do you make this judgment fairly? People who watch the FCIAC all year long will make this argument. Does this make it right? No, even though there is some evidence to support it.

    Comment by TRG — September 29th, 2009 @ 5:18 pm

32. This also speaks to a larger issue: the problem of having overgrown “power” conferences such as the SCC Div I, FCIAC, and the now ridiculously large CCC.

    The playoff system was already well established by the time the SCC was created and by the time the FCIAC and the CCC took the shape of their current monstrous sizes. All the member teams knew exactly what they were getting into and chose to do it anyways.

    Fans of these conferences want things both ways. They love to proclaim how tough their leagues are and how random team X would go 4-6 if they had to play in it. But at the same time, they want to tell you how unfair the playoffs are and how unfair the polls are.

    Comment by TRG — September 29th, 2009 @ 5:18 pm

33. I’m sure I’ve made mistakes. Please feel free to check my math.

    Conference vs. Conference:

    NVL 2-0 vs. CSC
    NVL 2-0 vs. ECC
    NVL 1-0 vs. SCC
    NVL 0-1 vs. FCIAC
    Overall 5-1 out of Conference

    SCC 0-1 vs. NVL
    SCC 1-0 vs. CSC
    Overall 1-1 out of Conference

    FCIAC 1-0 vs. NVL
    FCIAC 1-0 vs. CSC
    Overall 2-0 out of Conference

    ECC 1-1 vs. CSC
    ECC 0-2 vs. NVL
    Overall 1-3 out of Conference

    CSC 0-2 vs. NVL
    CSC 0-1 vs. SCC
    CSC 1-1 vs. ECC
    CSC 0-1 vs. FCIAC
    Overall 1-5 out of Conference

    Comment by Dr. Von Nostran — September 29th, 2009 @ 5:20 pm

34. sjob-dont get carried away by that win over crosby–they lost almost their whole team from last year and started a kid who never qbed before-they played a 4 year qb last year–theyll get better as the year goes on

    Comment by ray brown — September 29th, 2009 @ 5:26 pm

35. The CIAC will look at four divisions with eight teams per division for 2010. That will solve many of the “weak League issues”.

    Comment by Dave k — September 29th, 2009 @ 7:13 pm

36. 6 divisions still with 8 per division. total 48 teams. Other than LL where it will be helpful to those 9-1 8-2 teams with good resumes it will make the others worse yet. think about all those 6-4 teams that will qualify for beating teams with terrible records while losing the 4 hard games they all play. AKA M, MM, S

    Comment by Fear The Bird — September 29th, 2009 @ 8:47 pm

37. Not sure where all of the whining is coming from? I’m sure most would boast the FCIAC is the elite league, so explain how is it that in 2006 & 2007 (FCIAC was missing in 2008) L Division playoffs the FCIAC sent their (assumed) best team to states and ended up losing to the so called cakewalk league’s (SWC) best???

    Comment by amf3 — September 29th, 2009 @ 9:21 pm

38. Simple solution to the playoffs and ratings systems.

    Award points based on the division of the opponent that a team beats. In other words a team that beats a team in the same division gets 100 points, a team that beats a team one division lower team gets 90 points and 2 divisions lower gets 80 points. The same goes for a team that beats teams in higher divisions. They get 110 points from a team 1 higher division up and 120 points for beating a team 2 higher up.

    This is exactly how the CIAC calculates points for all non-league games. Just make this point system for all games, league or non-league. This will allow a team that plays a very tough schedule to lose 2 games and, rightfully so, have enough points to get into the playoffs ahead of a one loss or undefeated teams that plays an awful schedule. If you notice most “real” L and LL teams play each other(with the exception of you know who). There is no way for these teams to avoid a loss.

    SPB, I completely agree with you that Masuk is probably a very good 7-3 team in a stronger division. I would be interested to see if this proposed point system would create a more fair rating system once we get to week 5 or 6. I am speculating that an undefeated team that plays a weak schedule will have less points than a team with one loss playing a tough schedule.

    Comment by 44 backer — September 29th, 2009 @ 9:56 pm

39. It seems like no one is talking about the 800 pound gorilla in the corner of the room. Masuk has the Cochran connection. Love him or hate him, you never bet against Cochran in CT High school Football. Until his boy graduates, Masuk will be a top three team in the state, period. Greenwich, New Canaan, New Britain New London, SCC, CCC, FCIAC, it doesn’t matter they don’t have Cochran and Masuk does. Just a small point I’m connected with East Lyme Football and I’m not a Masuk fan, in fact I was there for the 03 beating of that fantastic Masuk team in the MM game.

    Comment by John D — September 29th, 2009 @ 10:02 pm

40. Sean Fantastic job with these blogs and all the articles. Awesome job. Hey just a quick question if you have time. Why are the polls so off this year. I’ve been doing this for a while and have never seen the Polls in such disagriance before. Usually the polls seem pretty much the same. I guess it’s still early…

    Comment by John D — September 29th, 2009 @ 10:05 pm

41. Backer. …not saying Masuk is probably a very good 7-3 team in a “stronger division”, only that you’d see more 7-3, 6-4 seasons than normal. As it is now, Masuk typically only loses one or two games a year since John Murphy took over in 1998.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 29th, 2009 @ 10:16 pm

42. Hey John D,
    The polls are typically screwy in seasons like this, when many teams graduated star players and it’s hard to pin down just who’s the best of the bunch.

    This is the second consecutive year we’ve had such uncertainty (2006, for example, we were able to pin down exactly who was going to be good in the preseason save for one or two teams.)

    By Week 3 or 4, I think everybody will know who the real contenders are.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 30th, 2009 @ 3:47 am

43. hey backer 44 you list simsbury as one of those ccc jugernauts…they lost to newington in the semis last year a team masuk beat 55-13 or something. you lose credibility every time you throw out one of these hateful rants….who do you support? It seems people hate masuk because they are jealous. (and masukrules is a complete idiot who lacks the insight to make a VALID argument about the team he supports)

    Comment by realist — September 30th, 2009 @ 7:42 am

44. Agreed that MM and L leagues are a joke for competition

    As far as the size of the conferences, I’ll rehash this old argument (at least for the FCIAC)…winning the conference is much more relevant to those teams than winning the states…so the size of the league does not really matter

    Comment by Mike Smith — September 30th, 2009 @ 11:07 am

45. Sean- I thought Staples was LL why does the poll say L?

    Comment by Frank — September 30th, 2009 @ 10:07 pm

46. Because the NH Register is wrong. Staples is indeed in LL. I didn’t even look at those designations, to be honest.

    Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — September 30th, 2009 @ 10:43 pm

47. Realist needs to look at the 11th comment because there is alot of insight there. Stop and him must be the same guy.

    Comment by MasukRules — October 1st, 2009 @ 7:38 am

48. I have been a follower of the Fciac for many many years and I can honestly say that this is the worst year top to bottom I have ever seen. You have five pretty good teams(none that are dominant) and 14 below average or weak teams. New CAnaan. Greenwich and Staples are the best teams but they can’t compare to their good teams of the past. Ridgefield can’t score and St.Joes is still an unknown.

    The tough division of the SCC is loaded and each week they have a competetive game.
    The SWC is also top heavy-very few good games.

    I can’t even watch the NVL this year. The CCC is also a tough league.

    Two monster games in the SCC this week-Cheshire vs. Wilbur Cross and then N.D. West Haven vs. West Haven.

    Comment by jjs — October 1st, 2009 @ 11:51 am

49. MR, can you please stop posting about my team. Your kind of support is not wanted. You make us all look like arrogant fools when we try so hard to keep our program classy.

    Comment by stop — October 2nd, 2009 @ 10:10 am

50. Who is this MR? He needs to follow my example!

    Comment by MasukRules — October 2nd, 2009 @ 3:32 pm

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