According to Connecticut Post calculations, the following teams have unofficially clinched CIAC state playoff berths:
Class M: New London (8-0); Avon (9-0); Berlin (9-0)
Class MM: Vinal Tech/Coginchaug (9-0)
Class S: Bloomfield (9-0)
The following teams can unofficially clinch with one more victory:
Class LL: Glastonbury (9-0, vs. Simsbury) (the Tomahawks can still clinch with a loss); Staples (9-0, vs. Greenwich); Xavier (8-1, vs. Middletown). …Cheshire (7-1, vs. West Haven, vs. Southington) can clinch with two more victories.
Class L: Masuk (9-0, vs. Newtown), Pomperaug (9-0, vs. Oxford)
But, and you’re not going to believe this, not 9-0 Conard.
There’s a statistical chance — and a halfway decent one at that — that the Chieftains could miss the playoffs at 10-0 if Pomperaug, Masuk, Simsbury and Notre Dame-WH all win their final games.
We kid you not.
Class MM: New Canaan (8-1, vs. Darien), East Lyme (8-1, vs. Waterford).
Class M: none.
Class SS: Holy Cross (8-1, vs. Wolcott); Wolcott (8-1, vs. Holy Cross); Montville (8-1, vs. St. Bernard)
Class S: Northwest Catholic (8-1, vs. Plainville); Hyde (8-1, vs. North Branford); Ansonia (7-2, vs. Naugatuck — according to our math, there’s a statistical chance Prince Tech, which plays only nine games, could outpoint Ansonia, 124.44 max average to Ansonia’s 123.0 minimum best average… but it’s not nearly probable to be taken seriously).
That’s about it.
The full scenarios… will not be shown until all of the Week 9 games are completed today.
Sorry to keep you in suspense.
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After the way St. Joes played @ Greenwich firday night they got a real good shot at getting in and making a run at a title.
Comment by Ole#65 — November 16th, 2009 @ 6:21 pm
I have to dissagree with MM. My calculations have EL allredy clinched.
Comment by John D — November 16th, 2009 @ 7:01 pm
What does the CIAC say to a team like Conrad which can go a possible 10-0 & not be able to make States??????
Comment by PBL — November 16th, 2009 @ 7:48 pm
John, East Lyme has not clinched.
The worst it can finish is with 1120 points. Vinal can beat that, New Canaan can beat that, St. Paul can beat that. Darien can beat that. That’s four teams.
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 16th, 2009 @ 8:25 pm
Your right, I will conceed, but in the real life they will get 60 bonus points for a min of 1160. I just hope NC gets a shot at a real game.
Comment by John D — November 16th, 2009 @ 8:40 pm
If they win they will get 1280 or 1290
Comment by John D — November 16th, 2009 @ 8:41 pm
Right, but the question is are they clinched now? No. They need to win to get in, or they’ll have to wait for bonuses.
And they’re not going get all 60 (NFA, for example, would have to beat New London).
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 16th, 2009 @ 8:51 pm
Ole#65,
You’re right St.Joe’s played Greenwich real tough, and that kid Tyler Matakevich is a real good player on both sides of the ball…
Comment by ghsgrandpa — November 16th, 2009 @ 8:57 pm
Tyler is a great 2 way player and the QB can make plays as well. It would be nice to see St. Joes back in the playoffs after all these years.
Comment by Ole#65 — November 16th, 2009 @ 9:51 pm
PBL
Conard’s beef should be with the CCC not the CIAC.God awful schedule.
Comment by cuoz18 — November 16th, 2009 @ 10:03 pm
Conard will be in. What Sean has not taken into account is bonus points, and the fact that Conard has Hall saturday. Also Simsbury will not beat Glastonbury and Conards schedule was handed to them by the CCC based on their record from last year. “God Awful”, I think not. They beat Southington by 20, when simsbury, glastonbury, and windsor COMBINED only beat Southington by 9.
Comment by ConardFan — November 17th, 2009 @ 8:26 am
john d is in his own world
Comment by ray brown — November 17th, 2009 @ 10:12 am
ConardFan … I’ve taken the bonus points into account. This is a realistic scenario. Not likely. But realistic.
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 17th, 2009 @ 1:34 pm
A schedule that contains only 1 team(Southington) ranked between #20 -#50 in the state is what I consider “God Awful”.I stand by the comment.If you want to say we did not make the playoffs and we beat a 5-5 Southington team,A signature win ?,go ahead and do so, the knowledgeable fans will not take you seriously .I watched Conard take on Public and they looked good not great .I hope Conard makes the states because the players deserve some competition for all their hard work .I will be first to admit I was wrong if they win the L title.My prediction is they definitely lose to ND(WH) and Pomperaug and most likely lose to Masuk.
Comment by Cuoz18 — November 17th, 2009 @ 2:20 pm
If Bassick beats BHT on Thanksgiving Eve, it appears to me that SJ can out point BHT even if they lose to THS. It will come down to bonus points with the key points for SJ being Norwalk beating McMahon and Warde beating Ludlow. I also don’t think Wolcott is a lock just yet. If they lose and SJ and BHT win, it will come down to bonus points against BHT, which BHT will probably need some underdogs to come through.
Comment by 31 — November 17th, 2009 @ 3:11 pm
31, you are correct. A+
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 17th, 2009 @ 3:17 pm
Ray I’ll bet you a pizza that EL finishes with 1280 points. I had that pegged three weeks ago.
Comment by John d — November 17th, 2009 @ 4:40 pm
Sean I wasn’t counting the NL game for the 60
Comment by John d — November 17th, 2009 @ 5:22 pm
OK Mr Knowledgeable couz 18… If you read the end of the post you will see that I said 9-0 Glastonbury, 7-2 Windsor, and 8-1 Simsbury beat Southington by a combined 9 points… Are those not quality teams? Yes Southington is 5-4(another mistake by you) but look who they lost to and by how much. 48-46 to 9-0 Glastonbury. 24-21 to Windsor and by three to 8-1 Simsbury . All three of those top teams came back in the final minute to win. Conard beat Southington by 20. Enough of your talk and “knowledge” and nothing to back it up. “God awful” Conard is going to show itself on the field. Hartford High was the first game of the season, should of kept a closer eye to what was happening the rest of the season.
Comment by Conardfan — November 17th, 2009 @ 7:37 pm
Just because you beat Southington by more then other teams means nothing. You fail to take into account weather conditions or certain moves players make in split decisions that decide a game and how they respond.
Comment by NDSenior — November 17th, 2009 @ 7:49 pm
I really have to say This is the best site in CT to get information on whats going on with most of CT Football. I really hope that someday you will cover more of the State. So, Thank you!
Comment by Football Bob — November 17th, 2009 @ 7:51 pm
OK lets take into account beating 7-2 Manchester and 6-3 South Windsor by 35t. I dont want to get into it with you guys. I am just saying that Conard did not have a “god awful” schedule and had the info to back it up when someone made that stupid comment. We will see in states. Best of luck to your teams
Comment by Conardfan — November 17th, 2009 @ 8:37 pm
IIt is sad that teams in class SS even have to worry about BHT. I saw theyre game against Platt and it was a joke. No defense what so ever. They would get destroyed by just about anyone in class ss. RB from Platt is legit though. If he doesnt get hurt Platt wins that game.
Comment by Ole#65 — November 17th, 2009 @ 8:44 pm
A lot of times ,especially after week #9,I will project how the year will play out.When Conard finishes 10-0 the best team they would have defeated is a 5-5 Southington(they will lose to Cheshire).Looking after the first few weeks of the year at Canard’s schedule the only game I thought would be competitive and worth my time traveling to was against Southington,all others I had given Conard (W’s)already.As for keeping an eye on all teams in Connecticut ,I will let SBP or others on this blog answer that question .Again I hope Conard makes the playoffs and does well as they have a good program, but to say that the majority of their wins were against quality opponents is definitely very a nearsighted view.
Comment by cuoz18 — November 17th, 2009 @ 8:50 pm
Ok SPB, I have to ask you because you’ve crunched all of the numbers… Simsbury just beat Glastonbury 34-33 in OT. We now know that Conard could actually be out of the class L playoffs if Masuk, Pomperaug and ND West Haven all win their last games, correct? However, is Glastonbury still in the LL playoffs regardless of what happens???
Comment by CCC Fan — November 21st, 2009 @ 4:48 pm
Glastonbury can clinch with four of their
7060 bonus games. Middletown (Xavier); Southington (Cheshire); Windsor (Bloomfield); Tolland (E.O. Smith);Hall (Conard);Newington (Wethersfield); New Britain (Berlin)Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 21st, 2009 @ 5:07 pm
SPB were you at the Glastoburry game, or was somebody caliing it in for you?
Comment by John D — November 21st, 2009 @ 5:16 pm
Ls has the best teams in the state this year! It is stacked.
Comment by MasukRules — November 21st, 2009 @ 6:42 pm