His Madness has four down and two to go and his poor brain is just about oozing from his ears.
Wake up, Your Madness! Wake up!
Darien needs to know if it has any shot.
Short answer: ACK!
Longer answer: Yes. But gotta beat New Canaan.
Longest answer: see below.
CLASS MM
VINAL TECH/COGINCHAUG (9-0) 1230 UNOFFICIALLY CLINCHED (Updated points!!!)
Remaining: Cromwell (160)
Guaranteed (30): Hyde/North Branford; Old Saybrook/Morgan; HK/Valley
Bonus (10): Windsor Locks (Stafford); Haddam-Killingworth (ValleyOL); Morgan (Gilbert)
Min: 1260 – 1270
Max: 1420 – 1430
The Mad Scientist SEZ: (Updated scenario) Vinal has clinched a playoff spot. They can get the top seed if they win or New Canaan loses. Otherwise, they’re most likely the No. 2 There’s a slight chance they could fall to No. 3 if they lose and New Canaan and East Lyme win.
NEW CANAAN (8-1) 1130
Remaining: Darien (170)
Guaranteed (20): Trinity Catholic/Wilton, Ludlowe/Warde
Bonus (40): Bassick (Bullard-Havens); Seymour (Woodland); St. Joseph (Trumbull); Greenwich (Staples)
Min: 1150 – 1190
Max: 1320 – 1360
The Mad Scientist Sez: They’re in with a victory over Darien, most likely as the No. 2 seed. They’ll clinch the No. 1 seed only if Vinal Tech loses.
If New Canaan loses to Darien, then it gets slightly interesting (see below). New Canaan can still get in with a loss if enough goes its way, but it would likely be the No. 3 seed.
EAST LYME (8-1) 1120 (Updated points)
Remaining: Waterford (120)
Guaranteed (10): Fitch/Ledyard
Bonus (60): Enfield (Fermi); St. Bernard (Montville); Woodstock (Tourellotte); NFA (New London); Bacon Acad (RHAM); Stonington (Westerly RI)
Min: 1130 – 1190
Max: 1250 – 1310
The Mad Scientist Sez: (Updated scenario) With clinch with a win or a Darien or St. Paul loss. Won’t get a home game unless New Canaan loses, or if Vinal loses and East Lyme earns enough bonus points.
In the unlikely scenario that it loses to Waterford, East Lyme would need some bonus help to stay ahead of St. Paul and Darien and clinch the final spot alongside an 8-2 New Canaan
ST. PAUL (7-2) 980 (Updated points)
Remaining: Rocky Hill 130
Guaranteed 10: Watertown/Torrington
Bonus 50: Derby (Shelton); Naugatuck (Ansonia); Sacred Heart (Wilby); Kennedy (Crosby), Woodland (Seymour)
Min: 990 – 1040
Max: 1120 – 1170
The Mad Scientist Sez: (Updated scenario) Win and a Darien loss puts St. Paul in as the No. 4 seed (unless East Lyme loses, in which case it has a slight chance at No. 3).
Now, a New Canaan loss to Darien may complicate things for St. Paul. But it can still clinch if enough goes its way (see below).
DARIEN (7-2) 930
Remaining: New Canaan (180)
Guaranteed (10): Wilton/Trinity Catholic
Bonus (50): Danbury (Ridgefield); Attleboro (North Attleboro); Bassick (Bullard-Havens); Westhill (Stamford); Norwalk (McMahon)
Min: 940 – 990
Max: 1120 – 1170
The Mad Scientist SEZ: Must beat New Canaan to have any prayer at getting in. A win and a St. Paul loss would do it. A St. Paul win will make it tough, but not impossible.
Here we go: (Updated scenario)
If Darien wins, it will finish anywhere between 1120-1170. New Canaan’s maximum point range falls to 1150-1190. A St. Paul win will put them anywhere from 1120-1170.
New Canaan is guaranteed to beat Darien for a playoff spot if it gets just one win from Seymour, St. Joseph or Greenwich. New Canaan can also hold off St. Paul by getting at least two bonus games. Since St. Paul loses a tiebreaker, it needs to have almost all of its bonuses come in to beat New Canaan.
So assuming New Canaan is relatively safe, that will leave St. Paul to duke it out with Darien.
With wins, Darien would start at 1120 points and St. Paul 1120. Darien has five bonus games, for a maximum total of 1170 points. St. Paul has five, for a maximum total of 1170.
St. Paul has the edge because it will beat Darien on tiebreaker points (92-76) should the teams finish tied.
That means Darien must earn ONE more bonus games than St. Paul to clinch the final spot. If not, St. Paul will clinch.
Up Next: Class S.
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Haddam-Killingworth (ValleyOL)should be guaranteed points for Vinal/Coginchaug as they beat both V/L-OL and HK.
So they’ll probably fall to 3 this week when they lose to Cromwell?
Comment by Pequot — November 22nd, 2009 @ 8:32 pm
Pequot: His Madness says you’re right. We had these typed out last week and, since Vinal had clinched, we never updated it adequately. His madness thanks you, but says it doesn’t change the scenario. If Vinal loses to Cromwell, they will drop to No. 3 unless New Canaan or East Lyme loses.
ACK!
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 22nd, 2009 @ 8:53 pm
SPB, EL has 1120 points, not 1110. Hope EL and NC don’t play in the playoffs.
Comment by John D — November 22nd, 2009 @ 8:58 pm
(If Vinal/Coginchaug is going to be referred to with one word, the better word would be “Coginchaug”. Read on.)
There have been derisive comments by some posters about Vinal/Coginchaug. I assume said derision is due to ignorance. Sometimes, knowledge can cure ignorance, so here’s an attempt at a cure.
When a team has a great season that no one expected, that team’s coach (in baseball, the team’s manager) is usually named “coach of the year”. It is the team’s unexpected accomplishment that results in the coach’s honor, and such a coach has usually done a great job, but it’s the coach that stands in the team’s stead for what is really a “Team of the Year” award.
By that standard, Vinal/Coginchaug would be a top candidate for Connecticut high school football’s “Team of the Year”, were there such an honor.
Four years ago, V/C was 0-10. A new coach was appointed. The team went 1-9, and 1-9 again, before a 6-5 season last year.
Still, the press was unimpressed. In this season’s pre-season forecast, the New Haven Register picked V/C to finish eighth out of nine teams in its conference’s division. When the ninth team forfeited its season, that left V/C as the division’s projected worst team.
Today, V/C stands at 9-0. Even if that ninth win is its last of the year, V/C can finish no worse than as a division co-champion. From worst to first. A magical season. No one is asking for V/C to be rated in the polls. But V/C still gets my vote for Team of the Year.
Because the male enrollments of Coginchaug and Vinal are combined for post-season placement purposes, Coginchaug/Vinal (one state newspaper has, appropriately, called the V/C team “Coginchaug/Vinal” at least twice this season) will be placed into the Class MM post-season. No one from V/C is complaining about the rule that does that, but that rule, nevertheless, will place Coginchaug — a Class S school with a Class S program in a Class S league — into the MM post-season. This is the last year of the Coginchaug/Vinal co-op. The Coginchaug program has progressed to the point where it has too many players for a co-op, and next year, Coginchaug will play on its own, in Class S. Vinal accounts for about 60% of the Coginchaug/Vinal combined enrollment that vaults the V/C team all the way into Class MM, but on this year’s team, the co-op program’s last, tiny Coginchaug produces more than 80% of the players. No disrespect whatsoever to the Vinal players, but they would agree with the arithmetic that this is a Coginchaug team.
Coginchaug belongs in the post-season. The rule aside, Class S Coginchaug would be more appropriately placed into the Class S post-season, and has already beaten the team that, it says here, will win the Class S championship.
Coginchaug will go wherever it is sent, and, to repeat, no one from Coginchaug is complaining about having to play in Class MM. Folks who would rather be derisive about Coginchaug’s Class MM assignment ought not complain, either.
Comment by BCDE — November 22nd, 2009 @ 9:05 pm
You’re both right. His Madness says thanks… but Berlin’s points remain the same and East Lyme’s scenario doesn’t change.
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 22nd, 2009 @ 9:05 pm
BCDE well said. The fact that VT/C beat Hyde makes them a good team in my book. They will play a tough Cromwell team on turkey day eve, and then get a shot at the states, pretty impressive for a team that 0-9 just a few years ago! Good luck VT/C
Comment by John D — November 22nd, 2009 @ 9:14 pm
Been a Rams fan for 50 years and let me tell you, they will struggle with Darien on Thanksgiving. I hope I am wrong! Also, I here East Lyme is good, and we all know what happeneed a few years back with east Lyme and it’s kicker. I luagh when people call this the “New Canaan Invitational.” Give credit to all four teams that will make the MM field, even though it won’t be nearly as difficut as it was last year when it was BY FAR the toughest division in the state, with the top 3 teams in the state polls in it. Again, don’t be shocked if New Canaan loses to Darien and struggles to win a state title, as it graduated 17 STARTERS from last year’s undefeated team.
Comment by NewCanaanFootballfan — November 22nd, 2009 @ 10:11 pm
there is no question in my mind that NC beats darien on Thanksgiving…NC lost one football game to a very good team…it got beat up very bad in that game and were chasing alot of points early on and could not come back…i do not see darien or anyone else for that matter being able to score that quickly on them, hence the reason i see no problems. i still think NC is Top 5 in the state in my eyes and i forsee 0 problems goiong forward towards winning the fourth state championship…not to mention i do not think that you are a Ram Fan mr. NewCanaanFootballfan something just smells fishy about your comment…being around real ram fans they would never say we have a weakness..we are a tight nit bunch and i dont believe you are a member or our tribe…you may be a snake in the grass i got my eye on you homes!
Comment by prophet — November 23rd, 2009 @ 8:48 am
Darien v. NC could be intersting. Seems like not many people have been giving Darien credit for their strong defense. We’ll find out how good it really is this Turkey day, can’t wait!
Comment by John D — November 23rd, 2009 @ 11:03 am
Your Madness:
Wonderful jobs (six of them).
Some minor tweaks (pardon the redundancy) in Class MM.
St. Paul would not earn 140 points for a victory over Rocky Hill; it would earn 130, because Rocky Hill is a Class SS, non-conference opponent. That makes the possible battle between an 8-2 St. Paul and an 8-2 Darien even tighter.
As of the time of your blog posting, Coginchaug had already picked up the 10 points from Morgan’s win over Gilbert on Saturday, and 10 more points from a game your calculation did not consider, North Branford’s win over Housatonic/Wamago on Friday.
This makes a possible battle between a 9-1 Coginchaug and a 9-1 East Lyme tighter than your blog indicates. (SPB: “[Coginchaug] will only fall to No. 3 if they lose and New Canaan and East Lyme win.”)
If Coginchaug loses to Cromwell, all it will take to get Coginchaug to 1270 is a likely win at home by 2-7 Windsor Locks/Suffield over Stafford/East Windsor. For East Lyme, St. Bernard won’t beat Montville, and NFA won’t beat New London. To get to 1270 and beat Coginchaug with the tie-breaker, East Lyme would need two of the following four: Enfield to beat Fermi at Fermi (possible, but probably not), Woodstock to beat Tourellotte (close), Bacon to beat RHAM (close), and Stonington to beat Westerly (close).
If Coginchaug loses to Cromwell, North Branford’s forgotten victory over Houatonic/Wamogo could loom large.
Still, a wonderful job.
Comment by BCDE — November 23rd, 2009 @ 11:24 am
Great catch on Rocky Hill. And you’re right on the St. Paul/Darien battle. Great catch on Morgan(OSW) already playing, and North Branford/Housy and what it means.
This was done last week when we still had extra games Old Saybrook had, like, half its season to play in Week9. Frankly, all of the Pequot and teams games start to blur in your head if you’re not familiar enough with the conference. Every year we have to relearn who plays on Thanksgiving.
Job well done. His madness, if he was awake, would thank you profusely (which may or may not be a good thing considering his state). So I’ll thank you.
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 23rd, 2009 @ 11:34 am
BCDE,
Thank you for the great post on Coginchaug. Very informative.
Comment by Dr. Von Nostran — November 23rd, 2009 @ 1:05 pm
Nice job BCDE. SPB, Maybe I’m wrong but I thought VT/C Min total is 1260-1270
Comment by John D — November 23rd, 2009 @ 1:07 pm
Vinal’s minimum total is 1260-1270. Thanks. (We’re having all kinds of trouble with this one, huh?)
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 23rd, 2009 @ 1:30 pm
No worries, keep up the good work!
Comment by John d — November 23rd, 2009 @ 2:23 pm
great work SPB (on all the divisions)
I am very interested to see how NC comes out against Darien – remember, have not seen the field since they got smoked at Central
If Darien can score early and get NC thinking, it couold be a fun morning
Comment by fan — November 23rd, 2009 @ 2:27 pm
Your Madness, again:
You own the above appellation, but I’m nearly as mad, as will be evident.
I realize that no one who reads this gives a rodent’s hindquarters about what the hell happens between Coginchaug and East Lyme if the former loses and the latter wins. Unless Your Madness is actally Your Madness Squared, neither do you. You just want to get it right, which is admirable, and not mad.
The tweaking of your tweaking might benefit from a tad more tweaking.
You’ve got the right point total for Coginchaug now, and you’ve fixed its minimum; its minimum is 1260-1270, not the 1270-1280 that was up recently (I wish you were right when you had it at 1270-1280).
Since East Lyme owns the tie-breaker, if Coginchaug gets to 1270 (it says here that it would if it loses, when a homestanding 2-7 Windsor Locks/Suffield beats a visiting 2-7 Stafford/East Windsor), even then a winning East Lyme would need only 20 of its bonus points to beat Coginchaug, not “more than half of its 60 bonus points” (SPB). East Lyme’s getting those 20 will be a very close call (see comment #10 above) but that would still make Coginchaug’s chances of falling to #3 a good deal more than “slight” (SPB) if it loses “and New Canaan and East Lyme win (SPB).”
After its playoff points analysis this morning, the Middletown Press opined: “The playoffs ought not to be the first thing on Vinal/Coginchaug’s mind. In what has become a Hollywood script writer’s dream season, the Hawks have a chance to finish undefeated in the final year of the [co-op] program.”
“Dream season”. This is MY madness. Rather than posting this to you (forgive me)and worrying about what would happen if the probable happens and Coginchaug loses to favored Cromwell Wednesday night, I should go to sleep and dream the dream. Maybe dreaming the dream will CURE my madness.
Good night!
Snore, snore.
(Thursday, November 26 Middletown Press headline: “Oh what a dream! Coginchaug upsets Cromwell!)
Comment by BCDE — November 23rd, 2009 @ 2:32 pm
BCDE: You’re right again.
But his madness — who hates being disturbed 12 hours into his offseason slumber — says he really could care less about Vinal’s prospects of clinching a home game in Class MM (sorry, he’s a Fairfield County guy, and he’s cranky). All he cares about is who is in and who is out of the playoffs.
Yes, if Vinal can beat Cromwell (amazing you’re talking about a 9-0 upsetting a 7-2, but I guess that’s the case), he says, and you’re in as the No. 1. Lose and it looks like 2 or 3. Just pay attention to East Lyme. If they win and New Canaan wins, it looks like you’ll be the No. 3 and go to East Lyme. …Arrrgh. you made him go through it!
Whatever, either way: lose, you’re playing East Lyme. Win, and you’re playing St. Paul or Darien.
Just be thankful, he says, you’re in the playoffs and you’re not poor, unfortunate ND who has to sweat it out.
Down, Mad Scientist! Down!
(Thanks again. It’s been modified to “enough bonus points.”)
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 23rd, 2009 @ 2:52 pm
I had already understood everything said in the reply above, both about all the playoff scenarios, and about this blog’s Fairfield County emphasis. I know you know that, but I don’t think His Madness does. Still, don’t wake him! Thank you.
But since one of you mentioned it: Yes, it is rare that a 9-0 team is an underdog to a 7-2 team in the same division. V/Coginchaug and Cromwell both have a forfeit win in the division. They had different non-division opponents. One of Cromwell’s losses was a 37-31 non-division loss to 10-0 Avon. V/Coginchaug’s two non-division opponents did not pose a challenge.
V/Coginchaug’s only favorable comparison to Cromwell is V/Coginchaug’s miraculous 28-21 win over Hyde, to whom Cromwell lost 6-0. Defending Class S champ Cromwell’s five on-the-field division wins were by 30, 28, 28, 42, and 30 points. Against the same five opponents, V/Coginchaug’s wins were by 17, 14, 5, 10, and 9 points, respectively. And all of those were “closer than the score indicated”. Which is why the New Haven Register will pick Cromwell, and if the Middletown Press picks V/Coginchaug, it will be clearly labeled as a sentimental pick.
Your patience is appreciated. Again, don’t wake His Madness!
Comment by BCDE — November 23rd, 2009 @ 4:49 pm
BCDE must be right. Cromwell returns three of the top players in the state in Bobby Jordan, Matt Colangelo, and Jaime Scott.
They have a ton of threats at wideout with Director and co.
They are the defending state champs and out athlete V/C at every spot.
V/C is the underdog even if they have the better record going into this game.
Even if Jordan isn’t 100% a combo of him and #12 will do just fine.
Cromwell 28 V/C 20
Comment by Pequot — November 23rd, 2009 @ 6:12 pm
SPB are we getting the polls tonight….Please say Yes!
Comment by John D — November 23rd, 2009 @ 8:04 pm
Yes… taking care of work. In 30 minutes.
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 23rd, 2009 @ 8:05 pm
“[Cromwell]out athlete[s] V/C at every spot” is an overstatement, and is probably intended as such. Neither team got to where it is without a lot of great athletes. Cromwell does, however, outpoint V/Coginchaug in that regard.
I can’t argue with Pequot’s prediction above. V/Coginchaug’s best shot is to keep the game as low scoring as that. If it turns into a shootout, V/Coginchaug is in trouble. Cromwell is a lot like Hyde. V/Coginchaug needs to do what it did so well when it beat Hyde: shorten the game. Playing smarter than Hyde didn’t hurt, either.
(This is far too civil. Can’t we start talking smack, like the big boys over in LL?)
Comment by BCDE — November 23rd, 2009 @ 9:59 pm
Please, no.
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 23rd, 2009 @ 10:00 pm
Good.
Good smack is impossible to write, anyway.
Good website. Good information from you. Discovered it recently. Wish there were something like this covering where I follow closely. The posted smack is irrational (yes, that’s redundant), and some of the posted discussions are silly, but you do have many good posters, and your forum is there for the serious, too, and that’s …
Good.
Good night.
Comment by BCDE — November 23rd, 2009 @ 11:48 pm
BCDE, who wins the VT/C v. Cromwell game?
Odds?Comment by John D — November 24th, 2009 @ 9:58 am
No odds
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 24th, 2009 @ 11:19 am
I meant like 50-50, 60-40, not gambling odds, sorry for the confusion, should have used chance.
Comment by John D — November 24th, 2009 @ 12:41 pm
How about “probability”?
Comment by Dr. Von Nostran — November 24th, 2009 @ 12:59 pm
Just got home from work. Gotta take care of some stuff. Will answer, in more detail than asked for (is there any other way?), by 11:00 p.m. tonight.
Comment by BCDE — November 24th, 2009 @ 7:03 pm
Yes probability, I like that : )
Comment by John d — November 24th, 2009 @ 7:43 pm
John it depends on the health of Bobby Jordan. If he is good to go it is 70-30 Cromwell if he doesn’t play at all the game is a toss up. You didn’t ask me but I have a big mouth.
Comment by Pequot — November 24th, 2009 @ 8:37 pm
No worries Pequot, thank you. When did Jordan get hurt, Hyde game? I have to figue the kid really wants/needs to play. Their season is riding on it.
Comment by John D — November 24th, 2009 @ 9:38 pm
Probability that Cromwell wins big: 42.91%
Probability that Cromwell wins merely respectably, but by more than a nail-biter: 20.57%
Probability that Cromwell wins a nail-biter: 12.37%
Probability that 80+%-of-the-roster-Coginchaug (et Vinal) wins a nail-biter: 17.04%
Probability that Coginchaug (et Vinal) wins respectably, but by more than a nail-biter: 6.46%
Probability that Coginchaug (et Vinal) wins big: 0.66%
Please note that the above percentages add up to 100.01%, due to rounding.
Note that my median includes the 28-20 Cromwell win predicted by “Pequot” (Comment # 20 ), which is why I said I could not quarrel with his prediction.
Yes, Coginchaug is 9-0, but Cromwell scares the crap out of me. Hyde scared the crap out of me, too, but lightning struck in that 28-21 win over Hyde, and lightning will have to strike in this one, too, I fear. (Anyone interested in the Middletown Press article about the Hyde miracle can figure out how to access it online. I just did. The headline was “Vinal/Coginchaug football shocks Hyde, 28-21 Saturday”, and it was published on Monday, September 28.)
Cromwell did not suffer when its #2 QB (Morales) played almost all of Friday’s game. Frankly, I think he’s better than the #1 (Jordan). I’ve seen both.
For the few of you interested, I’ll submit something in this space about the game sometime Thanksgiving day.
Comment by BCDE — November 24th, 2009 @ 10:45 pm
I remember when this was but a simple high school football blog…
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 24th, 2009 @ 10:48 pm
I was wrong about the Middletown Press’s prediction. After including the comparative score analysis, which scares me, and which would seem to point to a decided Cromwell advantage, (not a slight one, I maintain), somehow: …
“The pick: All of this gives Cromwell a slight edge. But somehow this seems like V/C’s year. V/C is also playing on its home field — although the game is Cromwell’s home game and Cromwell personnel will be running things — and that counts for something.
History beckons. Vinal/Coginchaug to win a close one.”
Somehow. I hope.
Anyone who cares can find the article online: “Bransfield: Table set for great football” — Published: Tuesday, November 24, 2009 11:16 PM EST.
Comment by BCDE — November 25th, 2009 @ 1:11 am
Ah. Mr. Bransfield. Can’t wait to see Jimmy at the state championship games.
Comment by Sean Patrick Bowley — November 25th, 2009 @ 1:22 am
Wow, a little more than I bargained for, but great work.
Comment by John D — November 25th, 2009 @ 9:01 am
I feel badly when a team I root for wins a game that was decided by an official. I can’t shake shake the guilty feeling. Last night, my team lost, so at least I’m not feeling guilty about the way the game ended.
Read all about it: http://www.middletownpress.com/articles/2009/11/26/sports/doc4b0e191d3b654664596992.txt
Cromwell led 17-0 at halftime. Coginchaug came back to take a 20-17 lead. Cromwell answered to lead 24-20. And then, with about a minute to go and Coginchaug driving, came … “the whistle”.
Middletown Press: “Then came the play that left the crowd wondering what was going on. V/C snapped the ball, there was a referee’s whistle, all 22 players stopped, then started again, realizing that the whistle had not stopped play. Finley threw off-balance and the pass was intercepted, effectively ending the game.”
The reason the players “started again” and “realiz[ed] that the whistle had not stopped play” was that the Cromwell public address announcer announced: “The play is still live.” A second later, a Cromwell lineman lunged at the confused Coginchaug QB, and then came the interception.
I guess that the Coginchaug coach had never gotten around to coaching his QB on what a QB should do when an official blows a play dead, and you and the 21 other players on the field stop play, and the public address announcer makes an announcement during the play that you and everybody else think isn’t a play anymore, and you’re lunged at.
Oh well.
Still, Coginchaug finishes with a share of the championship. Worst to First. Still gets my vote for Connecticut high school football’s Team of the Year. Its second half last night was its best half of the season. But please don’t tell anybody. I’m hoping they’re taken lightly on Tuesday.
Comment by BCDE — November 26th, 2009 @ 12:29 pm