SPB's High School Football

In the interest of all the St. Joseph and Bullard-Havens fans out there, we’re going to jump right over the Class M and MM brackets and go straight to… Class SS.

Didn’t we tell you?

We’re mad.

Update: His Madness butchered one key ingredient of the St. Joseph/Bullard-Havens scenario below. If Wolcott loses, both teams are good bets to get in with victories. Duh. It’s been fixed. See below. Changes in maroon type.

CLASS SS SCENARIOS

HOLY CROSS (8-1)            1190
Remaining: Wolcott (180)
Guaranteed (20): Wilby/Sacred Heart; Kennedy/Crosby
Bonus 40: Ansonia (Naugatuck); Torrington (Watertown); Woodland (Seymour); St.  Paul (Rocky Hill)
Min: 1210-1250
Max: 1390-1430

The Mad Scientist SEZ: Win over Wolcott and they’re the top seed. A loss, would put Wolcott in as the top seed, and drop the Crusaders into a fight with Bullard-Havens and St. Joseph for one of the last two playoff spots.

In that case, Holy Cross would be in if either Bullard-Havens or St. Joseph loses. If they both win, Holy Cross would need to wait for bonuses. If Holy Cross gets more than half of those (which is likely), it should clinch a spot. Anything less, and they’ll have to sweat it out.

MONTVILLE (8-1)            1270 UNOFFICIALLY CLINCHED No. 2 SEED
Remaining: St. Bernard (100)
Guaranteed (10): Plainfield/Griswold
Bonus 60: Stonington (Westerly); NFA (New London); Bacon Acad (RHAM); Windham (Wilcox Tech); Ledyard (Fitch); Waterford (East Lyme)
Max: 1280-1340

The Mad Scientist SEZ: Montville needs to win to get in… which should be simple because St. Bernard/Norwich Tech hasn’t been competitive in going 0-9. If Montville wins, then they’ll clinch the No. 2 seed and a home game. A loss and they’re probably still in. But they shouldn’t lose.

WOLCOTT (8-1)            1150
Remaining: Holy Cross (180)
Guaranteed (20): Woodland/Seymour, Kennedy/Crosby
Bonus 40: Killingly (Putnam); Wilby (Sacred Heart); Watertown (Torrington); Derby (Shelton);
Min: 1170-1210
Max: 1350-1390

(Updated) The Mad Scientist SEZ: It’s pretty simple for Wolcott in this mad division. Win and you’re the top seed. Lose, and you’re pretty much out unless St. Joseph or Bullard-Havens loses.

BULLARD-HAVENS (8-1)           1070

Remaining: Bassick (120 + 20)
Guaranteed (0):
Bonus 60: Abbott Tech (Farmington); Capital Prep (Prince Tech, Prince Tech); SMSA (Bulkeley); Tourellotte (Woodstock); Cheney Tech (East Catholic); Wilcox Tech (Windham)
Min: 1070-1120
Max: 1210-1260

(Updated) The Mad Scientist SEZ: Bullard-Havens is in with a win and a St. Joseph loss. It can also get in if Wolcott loses and JUST  ONE more bonus game.

But if Wolcott and St. Joseph both win, then as Ned Griffen of the Day of New London says, “Get out your abacuses!”

See below for more.

ST. JOSEPH (7-2)            1010
Remaining: Trumbull (150 + 20)
Guaranteed (10): Wilton/Trinity
Bonus 50: Crosby (Kennedy); Darien (New Canaan); Bassick (Bullard-Havens); Fairfield Warde (Ludlowe); Norwalk (McMahon)
Min: 1020-1070
Max: 1190-1240

(Updated) St. Joe needs to beat Trumbull to get in (this is an important point), and then get either Bullard-Havens to lose to Bassick the night before or have Wolcott lose to Holy Cross on Thanksgiving Day to clinch.

If Wolcott and Bullard-Havens win… it’s going to be a footrace for the final two spots between St. Joseph, Bullard-Havens and Holy Cross.

Holy Cross, however, has a nice advantage. So, unless Wolcott loses, this will be a dogfight between St.  Joe and Bullard-Havens.

Down to the wire.

***

If it does come town to Bullard-Havens and St. Joseph, here’s what to look for.

First, a Bullard-Havens win over Bassick takes 10 points away from the Cadets. So before they can start looking at the scenarios, St. Joseph would already be denied a bonus game and will be left with just 40 potential bonuses for a max of 1230. Bullard-Havens, meanwhile, will have 5 bonus games, for a max of 1270.

That’s a decided advantage until you realize many of Bullard-Havens’ bonus teams are not favored to win their games.

The short-short version is this:

In order to clinch, Bullard-Havens must earn equal the amount of bonus games as St. Joseph.

If St. Joseph gets one, Bullard-Havens must also get one. If St. Joseph gets two, Bullard-Havens must also get two.

If Bullard-Havens gets anything less, the Cadets will tie  and force a tiebreaker — which is overwhelmingly in St. Joseph’s favor, 84-64.

Conversely, if Bullard-Havens can somehow get 4 bonus games to come in, it will clinch with 1240 points because St. Joseph cant get any higher than 1230.

Let’s break it down further:

With a win, St. Joseph will be relying on Crosby beating Kennedy (50-50), Darien beating New Canaan (possible, but unlikely), Warde beating Ludlowe (50-50), Norwalk beating McMahon (likely).

Factoring in those probabilities, St. Joseph will likely finish anywhere between 1200 and 1220. If it gets an upset from Darien, 1230.

Bullard-Havens is relying on Abbott Tech over Farmington (Farmington won), Capital Prep over Prince Tech (50-50), SMSA over Bulkeley (SMSA won), Cheney Tech over East Catholic (unlikely), Wilcox Tech over Windham (unlikely).

Factoring in those probabilities, Bullard Havens will likely finish anywhere between 1210-1230.

A huge matchup to watch for St. Joseph is  Capital Prep (5-4) vs. Prince Tech (7-1).

Bullard-Havens played and beat Capital Prep twice. So it gets double points for every one of Capitals wins (which, frankly, is a terrible loophole in the CIAC football points. Teams should not be allowed to play opponents twice and have it count twice for expressly this reason).

Anyway, if Prince Tech (7-1) wins that game, that would deny Bullard-Havens 20 bonuses. It could then only max out at 1250, with many questionable bonus games remaining. St. Joseph’s window would open considerably.

The Hogs would most certainly need AT LEAST two wins from Warde, Crosby and Norwalk. That would give them between 1210-1220 and, thus, a good shot at tying Bullard-Havens to clinch the spot on tiebreakers. If Bullard-Havens gets no bonus games, all St. Joseph needs is one of those bonus games.

If Capital Prep wins… Well, St. Joseph would be in trouble. They would have to hope Bullard-Havens doesn’t get any more bonus games, or failing that,  get Darien to beat New Canaan to max out at 1240.

Of course, Holy Cross could lose and then get little or no bonus games. But that would mean Ansonia losing to Naugatuck, Woodland losing to Seymour, St. Paul losing to Rocky Hill. (Watertown is favored over Torrington based on records, so that may not go Holy Cross’ way anyway.)

If, for by some insane reason, Holy Cross, St. Joseph and Bullard-Havens tie in playoff points, it would come down to tiebreaker points and St. Joseph and Holy Cross would clinch over Bullard-Havens.

Finally, if Wolcott, St.  Joseph and Bullard-Havens all lose, then Wolcott will capture the No. 4 seed.

Whew.