Welcome… to the LA’bor-atory.
HAAAAA HAAA HAAA HAAA HAAAA HAAAAAA!!!!!
The Mad CIAC Playoff Scientist has awoken from his year-long slumber, almost a week earlier than normal. But hey, he’s anxious to get this playoff party started.
He’s warmed up to the arrival of the H.A.L (Levy) 9000 Super Playoff Computer. Now it’s just a matter of sifting through the formulas and hash out these scenarios.
And, once again, that gets a little tricky because of the hoards of infernal Pequot and CCC teams that have two games remaining.
Remember, we have four classes, top eight get in.
The Point System:
- Teams get a 100 points for a victory, and then 10 points for every opponents’ win. This last part is referred to as “bonus” points.
- Teams also get 10 points for beating a team in one higher class, 20 for two higher classes and 30 for three higher classes.
- Large teams aren’t penalized for beating smaller teams in their own league. But in non-league games, larger teams are penalized 10 points for defeating a team in one lower class, 20 for two lower classes and 30 for three lower classes.
- It’s added up and divided by the number of games played. That average is a team’s playoff point total.
If any of you apprentices out there notice anything amiss, His Madness would love to know.
These are broken down into four categories: ‘They’re In‘ (self-explanatory); ‘Just Win, Baby‘ (controls their own destiny); ‘A Little Help Here?‘ (needs to win out and get outside help) and ‘False Hope‘ (mathematically alive, realistically not).
Here are the complete playoff standings
Here we go…
James Fruscaiante and the Wreckers have already qualified in Class LL.
Xavier (9-0), Staples (8-0), Conard (9-0), Newtown (8-1)
JUST WIN, BABY
Hall (8-1, vs. Conard), Norwalk (7-1, vs. McMahon), Greenwich (8-1, vs. Staples).
Hall can still get in with a loss. Norwalk or Greenwich will be cooked worse than your aunt’s roast duck if they lose. They must win.
A LITTLE HELP HERE?
Ridgefield (7-2) – The Tigers are in the best shape at No. 8. They need to beat Danbury and hope for a few things to break their way, like Greenwich or Norwalk (or both) to lose and then outpointing some of the lower contenders. They’d love if McMahon upset Norwalk, that would help them max out at 113.0 point average. NFA losing to New London would help them immensely. Oh, and a loss and they’re done.
Shelton (7-2) — They’re killed by Derby’s residence in the NVL. The non-league game is worth 30 points less than it did a few years ago. The Gaels are also counting on 90 bonuses from the likes of Guilford (vs. Hand), Hamden (vs. ND) and Wilbur Cross (vs. Hillhouse). Good luck with that. They probably won’t get a max 113.0 average. It’ll be closer to 107.0, which Pomperaug, Glastonbury and NFA can all surpass. Getting Ridgefield and Norwalk to lose will brighten Shelton’s day. But they’ll be sweating like a turkey on Thanksgiving, regardless.
Pomperaug (7-2) – The Panthers need to beat Oxford and get a few others surrounding it to lose — especially Ridgefield and Glastonbury. Greenwich or Norwalk losses would help too. They can max at 113.0 average. But their 50 bonuses include Newtown (over Masuk), New Fairfield (over New Milford) and Stratford (over Bunnell). It’s tough, but not impossible, and certainly better than Shelton.
Glastonbury (6-2) — Have two winnable games left vs. South Windsor and Simsbury. Two wins would put the Tomahawks into a points race with Shelton, Ridgefield and/or Pomperaug. They can max out at 112.0 average, but are counting on 60 bonuses to get there. A Norwalk or Greenwich loss would help matters.
Norwich Free Academy (6-2) – The Wildcats must win out to get into position — and that includes beating New London. If NFA can somehow pull that off, they’d be in a points race for one of the final spots. Of course, like the others, the Wildcats will benefit greatly if many of them lose. They have 80 bonuses, many of which probably won’t come in. We’ll know more after this weekend.
Stamford (6-2); Hartford Public (7-2); West Haven (6-3); New Britain (5-3); Southington (5-3).
Casey Cochran and Masuk need a victory over Newtown to qualify in Class L.
Windsor (9-0), Hand (9-0)
JUST WIN, BABY
Coventry/Windham Tech (8-0, vs. Granby Memorial, Ellington/Somers), Masuk (9-0, vs. Newtown), New London (7-1, vs. Griswold, NFA), New Canaan (8-1, vs. Darien).
Masuk and New London would both be in trouble with a loss. New Canaan would be out with a loss. Coventry/Windham Tech will almost assuredly be in with a win over Ellington/Somers.
A LITTLE HELP HERE?
Darien (8-1) — The Blue Wave aren’t quite guaranteed a berth even if they defeat New Canaan. They’ll be very close, however. A North Haven, Notre Dame or Farmington loss will do the trick. They’re done with a loss.
Notre Dame-WH (7-2) — Just a little. A win over Hamden gets the Green Knights on the cusp of a playoff berth. A Farmington loss would make it a clinch. They should have confidence in those 70 bonus games, too. Done with a loss.
North Haven (8-1) — Needs to beat Amity. After that, its only real worry is if Farmington wins out and collects enough bonuses, which is unlikely.
Farmington (7-1) — Must beat good Middletown team and then Plainville to get into position. It’s counting on a horde of bonus help (100 points as of right now) though. Not enough will come through to catch North Haven in that case. Their best hope is for ND or North Haven to lose to clinch with a win.
NEW: Bunnell (7-2) — We misspoke on Bunnell. The Dawgs still cling to an outside shot if they beat Stratford. They can get into the field if Middletown beats Farmington and if Amity upsets North Haven. It would then have a chance to outpoint both teams and the New Canaan-Darien loser if enough of its 50 bonus points come through. They can get anywhere between 1170-1120. Notre Dame losing to Hamden won’t hurt, either. Of course if Middletown also beats Xavier, they’d be finished.
Middletown (6-2) – How about this road? Beat 7-1 Farmington. Then topple top-ranked and unbeaten Xavier, then hope for the bonuses to outpoint ND or North Haven. Beating That middle part is like the Great Wall of China.
Bunnell (7-2), Torrington (7-2) – Would need for most of those teams to lose and max out on bonuses.
Brandon Schmidt and Bethel need lots of help in the Class M playoff race.
Updated – Wednesday 11/16
Ansonia (9-0), Ellington/Somers (8-0)
JUST WIN, BABY
Ledyard (7-1, vs. Branford, Fitch), Cheney Tech (8-1, vs. East Catholic), Berlin (8-1, vs. New Britain), Waterford (6-2, vs. Windsor, East Lyme), Wolcott (7-2, vs. Holy Cross).
Berlin and Ledyard would still be in good shape with at least one loss. Waterford and Cheney Tech can both clinch even with a loss if Stonington loses to Westerly (R.I.). Wolcott is done if it loses to Holy Cross, Gilbert/Northwestern wins out and Stonington beats Westerly.
A LITTLE HELP HERE?
Gilbert/Northwestern (6-2) — Have winnable games vs. Stafford/East Windsor and Housatonic/Wamogo remaining. That’ll get Gilbert/NW to 1090 points with 20 bonuses remaining. That’s close to clinching the final spot. They’d love if Wolcott loses to Holy Cross. That would grease their playoff wheels. If Stonington beats Westerly, it’s a footrace for bonus points.
Stonington (5-3) — Beat Foran on Wednesday, so all it needs now is a win over Westerly (R.I.) to get into position for the final playoff spot. They’d be counting on a lot of bonuses, and they’d have a tough time outpointing Waterford since they share many of the same bonus games. Their best bet is for Gilbert or Wolcott to lose.
Bethel (6-3) — The Wildcats need serious help, especially since they probably won’t get half of their 50 bonus games. Realistically, the Wildcats need to beat Brookfield then get Stonington to lose once and Waterford to lose twice. There’s a slight chance they could outpoint Wolcott if Wolcott loses to Holy Cross, but unlikely. A Gilbert/Northwestern loss is also desirable. Overall, they’ll need at least two teams ahead to lose to have any chance. It’s not impossible, but I’d be concerned.
Hillhouse (6-3), Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (6-3), Bullard-Havens (6-3), Montville (5-4), Tolland (6-3) — Too many unlikely variables for Hillhouse for us to give them a legit shot. Let’s just say the Acs need a miracle.
Tyler Hassett and Weston need to win and get help in the Class S playoff race.
Capital Prep/Classical Magnet (9-0); Valley Regional (9-0); Holy Cross (8-1).
JUST WIN, BABY
North Branford (7-1, vs. Lewis Mills, Hyde. One win gets them in); Northwest Catholic (7-1; vs. Bristol Eastern, Rocky Hill). One win gets them in, still alive with two losses); Cromwell (7-2, vs. Coginchaug, still alive with a loss); Rocky Hill (7-2, vs. Bristol Central and Northwest Catholic); Haddam-Killingworth (6-2, vs. Old Saybrook/Westbrook, Valley Regional/Old Lyme).
A LITTLE HELP HERE?
If all of those teams win, the field will be complete and contenders flapping in the wind. Even Rocky Hill would have an decided edge over all of them with just one more loss. So the only realistic shot any of the remaining teams have is if HK loses to Valley or if Rocky Hill loses twice.
Griswold (5-3) – Its only chance to qualify is to win out and get one of the teams above it to lose, specifically Rocky Hill to Northwest Catholic or HK to Valley Regional. Alas, New London sits there like a brick wall and loss would doom them.
Prince Tech (6-3) — Can clinch one of the last two remaining spots by beating Capital Prep/Classical, and then get HK to lose. That would put Prince at at least 1030 which would be the magic number to outpoint the others. Beating Capital Prep/Classical is easier said than done.
Weston (6-3) — The Trojans must beat Barlow and hope a bunch of teams lose to move into position for the final spot. Valley Regional must take care of HK, Cromwell must take care of Coginchaug, Capital Prep must take care of Prince Tech, New London must take care of Griswold. But — get this — all of those scenarios are likely. They realistically won’t catch Rocky Hill, so their only real issue will be with Bloomfield and one-loss HK. Weston can max out at 1030 points, but will likely get somewhere along the lines of 990 or 1000.
Bloomfield (5-3) — Same issue as Weston. Bloomfield must win out (against winless Weaver and Fermi), hope all of those same teams lose and wait for enough bonuses to clinch over Weston and HK. A Weston loss to Barlow would be nice, too. The Warhawks can top out at 1030, and they’ll get many of their 80 available bonus points.
Coginchaug (5-3) — Finishes with Morgan and Cromwell and can top out at 1000 points. They’ll need to win both games, get the same Weston and Bloomfield teams to lose, plus hope enough bonuses come in to top Weston and Bloomfield and a three-loss HK in a points race.
It’s going to be tight.
Seymour (5-4), Killingly (5-4), Woodland (5-4), Plainville (4-4), Old Saybrook/Westbrook (4-4), Housatonic/Wamogo (4-4).