UPDATED WITH WESTHILL FORFEIT NUMBERS: Ridgefield gained 20, potentially 30 points, putting it into position to clinch with a Fairfield Prep victory. It’s still tight, but now a decided Ridgefield advantage. take a look below.
Grab the beakers! Fire up the Bunson burners! Connect the tubes! Charge the transformers!
YES! The Mad Playoff Scientist is back in the laboratory to concoct the latest and last CIAC state playoff scenarios.
With one week of football left and about half the playoff field already clinched, it’s become clearer to see what all our lucky contestants need to reach the promised land. His madness is back to break it all down into its component molecules.
As always, if there’s something our apprentices believe is amiss in our scenarios, His Madness will empty the beakers and try again.
His Madness also tried to reasonably estimate how many bonus games a team will get, rather than look strictly at numbers in an attempt to realistically predict what will happen.
But he’s MAD, doncha know?
Before we begin, Kyle Brennan and I broke it all down on the ‘The Show,’ the Laxworm.com’s radio show. Listen to it all here.
Now, on to the madness: We’ll start with Class LL and work backward.
DON’T FORGET: Class LL teams get 100 points for every league win; 90 points vs. a non-league Class L team, 80 for non-league Class M team and 70 points for a non-league Class S team. Then teams collect 10 points for every win by a defeated opponent. Add the total up and divide by the number of games played and you have your playoff point average.
A team’s “Max” is the most points it can reach with a victory. A team’s “Min” is the most points it can accumulate with a loss.
Top eight point averages reach the playoffs.
Here we go…
Southington [9-0, 1280 (142.2)]
Opponent: vs. Cheshire (6-3, 160 pts)
Point potential: Max 148.0-145.0; Min 132.0-129.0
Bonus games (30 points): Newington (vs. Wethersfield); New Britain (vs. Berlin); Rockville (vs. South Windsor)
The skinny: A win over Cheshire will put the Blue Knights in line for either the No. 2 or No. 1 seed. A loss, and they can fall as far as No. 6.
Staples [8-0, 1110 (138.8) 1100 [137.5]
Opponent: vs. Greenwich (8-0, 180 pts)
Point potential: Max: 151..-144.4; Min: 131.1-124.44 [Max: 1350 (150.0) - 1290 (143.3); 1170 (130.0) - 1,110 (123.3)
Bonuse games (60): Darien (vs. New Canaan); Fairfield Warde (vs. Fairfield Ludlowe); Stamford (vs. Westhill); Harding (vs. (Central); Danbury (vs. Ridgefield); McMahon (vs. Norwalk)
The skinny -- Win clinches at least a No. 2 seed, maybe even the top seed if enough bonuses go their way. A loss to Greenwich and the Wreckers could finish as far down as No. 7. Update, Westhill forfeit: Lost 10 points and its prospects for clinching the No. 1 seed dimmed, somewhat. It's still can get the No. 1 seed, but will need an extra bonus game to come through.
Greenwich [8-0, 1090 (136.3) 1080 [135.0]
Point potential: Max: 148.9-142.2; Min: 128.9-122.2 Max: 1330 (147.8) – 1270 (141.1) ; Min: 1150 (127.8) -1090 (121.1)
Opponent: vs. Staples (8-0, 180 pts)
Bonus games (60): Fairfield Ludlowe (vs. Warde); Westhill (vs. Stamford); Central (vs. Harding); Bassick (vs. Bullard-Havens); McMahon (vs. Norwalk) Trumbull (vs. St. Joseph)
The Skinny – Win over Staples will give the Cards a home quarterfinal. A loss will drop them as far as No. 7 seed, but they’ll probably finish something closer to the No. 5. Update, Westhill forfeit: Lost 10 points and, like Staples, prospects for clinching the No. 1 seed dimmed. Greenwich actually will likely be the No. 2 seed with a win.
Xavier [8-1, 1200 (133.3)]
Point potential: Max: 1420 (142.0)-1400 (140.0); Min: 1250 (125.0)-1230 (123.0)
Opponent: vs. Middletown (8-1, 170 pts)
Bonus games (20): Hillhouse (vs. Cross); Shelton (vs. Derby)
The Skinny -- Win will give the Falcons most likely the third seed or the No. 2 seed (thereby avoiding a potential Staples rematch until the final. Whew.) A loss and they could fall as far as six.
Norwich Free Academy [9-0, 1170 (130.0)]
Point potential: Max: 1300-1250 (130.0-125.0); Min: 1250-1200 (125.0-120.0)
Bonuses (50): Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM); Stamford (vs. Westhill); St. Bernard/Norwich Tech (vs. Montville); Griswold (vs. Plainfield); Woodstock Academy (vs. Windham)
The Skinny – Beat New London, and NFA is probably looking at a home quarterfinal as the No. 4 seed if Xavier, Newtown or Southington lose. It can get as high as No. 2 if more fall. A loss, and it can fall as far as No. 7.
Newtown [9-0, 1140 (126.7)]
Opponent: Masuk (9-0, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1390 (139.0)-1380 (138.0); Min: 1200 (120.0)-1190 (119.0)
Bonuses (10): New Milford (vs. New Fairfield)
The Skinny – A win over Masuk will rocket the Hawks into at least a No. 3 seed and a home quarterfinal. A loss, and the Hawks will likely fall to No. 7.
Glastonbury (9-1, 1220 (122.0)]
Opponent: Done with regular season.
Point potential: 1270 (127.0)-1230 (123.0)
Bonuses (40): Newington (vs. Wethersfield); New Britain (vs. Berlin); Maloney (vs. Platt); South Windsor (vs. Rockville)
The Skinny – The Tomahawks clinched on Saturday and is just waiting for results and bonus games to increase its standing. It has a slight chance at edging a one-loss Greenwich for the No. 5 spot. It’ll most likely finish No. 6.
One Spot Remains…
West Haven will clinch by beating Fairfield Prep. Failing that, it opens the door for (in order) Prep and Ridgefield. Everyone else is finished.
West Haven (7-2, 950 [105.6])
Opponent: vs Fairfield Prep (160 points)
Point potential: Max: 1170 (117.0)-1120 (120.0); Min: 1010 (101.0)-960 (96.0)
Bonuses (50): Amity (vs. North Haven); Guilford (vs. Hand); Wilbur Cross (vs. Hillhouse); Sheehan (vs. Lyman Hall); Cheshire (vs. Southington).
The Skinny — Clinches with a victory. Westies are looking at a trip to Westport or Southington. They’re done with a loss.
Ridgefield [7-2, 840 (93.3) 860
Opponent: vs Danbury (120 points 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1010 (101.0)-980 (98.0) Max: 1040 (104.0)-1010 (101.0)
Bonuses (30): Stamford (vs. Westhill); Norwalk (vs. McMahon); Wilton (vs. Trinity Catholic)
The Skinny -- It's in trouble. It needs Fairfield Prep to beat West Haven, but that suddenly brings Fairfield Prep into play. The Jesuits have the advantage in likely bonus points.
Update, Westhill forfeit: It's now a very sunny day in Ridgefield. The Tigers picked up 20 points from Norwalk and Central forfeit wins and will get another 10 if it beats Danbury. That skyrocketed the Tigers into position to clinch over Fairfield Prep, should the Jesuits defeat West Haven.
Fairfield Prep [6-3, 800 (88.9)]
Opponent: vs West Haven (170 points)
Point potential: Max: 1020 (102.0) – 980 (98.0)
Bonuses (40): Hamden (vs. Notre Dame-West Haven); Wilbur Cross (vs. Hillhouse); Shelton (vs. Derby); Cheshire (vs. Southington).
The Skinny — Needs to beat West Haven to get in position. Then it’s basically them and Ridgefield. Since Ridgefield’s bonus games are much less likely to come through, expect the Jesuits to usurp the final Class LL playoff spot and head to Westport.
Update, Westhill forfeit: From excitement to despair, the Westhill forfeit now makes Fairfield Prep’s chances at qualifying over Ridgefield dire. They must beat West Haven and max out on bonus games to have any shot. That means, Hamden, Wilbur Cross, Shelton and Cheshire must win to help the Jesuits max out at 102.0. Or, Ridgefield would have to lose to Danbury.