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♦♦♦

UPDATED: Westhill has forfeited four games, changing the playoff chances of a few teams, especially Fairfield Prep and Ridgefield.

Above is the state of the state playoffs the night before the first Thanksgiving Week game of the 2012 season.

For a complete breakdown of all the possibilities, follow these links: CLASS LL | CLASS L | CLASS M | CLASS S

The points are taken from Matt Fischer’s H.A.L. Playoff Supercomputer, which will update in real time for the remainder of the year.

One final time, listen to Kyle Brennan of Rep-Am and I break it all down and look at the potential matchups on Laxworm.com’s High School football show.

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UPDATE: Westhill’s forfeits has lessened Trinity Catholic’s chances somewhat. The Crusaders are still in good shape, they just need a victory and a New Canaan victory to clinch a playoff spot.

♦♦♦

Finally, His Madness comes to the final state playoff division, Class S. Not many local teams in the mix here aside from Ansonia and Trinity and mayyyybe Oxford.

Last year’s state championship participants are practically out of the running. Ansonia, last year’ Class M champion, has returned to make this field miserable.

So your Mad Playoff Scientist will dispense with the pleasantries and get right to it.

For a complete breakdown of all the other classes, follow these links: CLASS LL | CLASS L | CLASS M

These points are taken from Matt Fischer’s H.A.L. Playoff Supercomputer.

Also, Kyle Brennan and I broke it all down on the ‘The Show,’ the Laxworm.com’s radio show. Listen to it all here.

DON’T FORGET: Class LL teams get 100 points for every league win; 90 points vs. a non-league Class L team, 80 for non-league Class M team and 70 points for a non-league Class S team. Then teams collect 10 points for every win by a defeated opponent. Add the total up and divide by the number of games played and you have your playoff point average.

A team’s “Max” is the most points it can reach with a victory. A team’s “Min” is the most points it can accumulate with a loss.

Top eight point averages reach the playoffs.

Now, onto the scenarios…

They’re In!

Ansonia (9-0, 1420 [157.8])

Opponent: Naugatuck (6-3, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1670 (167.0)-1630 (163.0); Min: 1480 (148.0) – 1450 (145.0)
Bonus games (30): Wilby (vs. Sacred Heart); Crosby (vs. Kennedy); Derby (vs. Shelton)
The Skinny — They should be the top seed with a win over Naugatuck. They’ve already clinched a home quarterfinal.

Capital Prep/Classical Magnet/Achieve 1st (10-0, 1490 [149.0]) – updated

Opponent: vs. Prince Tech (8-1, 180 pts) def. Prince Tech
Point potential: Max: 1540 (154.0) – 1520 (152.0)
Bonus games 20: Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (vs. Killingly); Bullard Havens (vs Bassick); Cheney Tech (vs. East Catholic)
The Skinny – Clinches at least a No. 2 seed and a home quarterfinal game with a victory

Hyde Leadership (9-0, 1240 [137.8]

Opponent: vs. North Branford (9-0, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1470 (147.0); Min: 1280 (128.0)
The Skinny – Plays North Branford on Thanksgiving eve. Winner will get a home quarterfinal. The loser will be looking a road trip.

North Branford (9-0, 1240 [137.8]

Opponent: vs. Hyde (9-0, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1470 (147.0); Min: 1280 (128.0)
The Skinny – See Leadership, Hyde.

Just Win, Baby

Rocky Hill (8-1, 1150 [127.8])

Opponent: vs. Northwest Catholic (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1390 (139.0) – 1320 (132.0); Min: 1220 (120.0) – 1150 (115.0)
Bonus games (70): Bristol Central (vs. Bristol Eastern); Plainville (vs. Farmington); Tolland (vs. E.O. Smith); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Platt (vs. Maloney); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); Rockville (vs. South Windsor)
The Skinny — The Terriers are in a great spot. Win and they’ll grab one of the last remaining quarterfinal home games. A loss and they’ll probably still squeak in.

Prince Tech (8-2, 1150 [125.0])

Opponent: vs. Capital Prep/Classical Magnet (9-0, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1200 (120.0)  – 1170 (117.0)
Bonuses (30): Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (vs. Killingly); Bullard-Havens (vs. Bassick); Wolcott Tech (vs. Abbott Tech); Cheney Tech (vs. East Catholic)
The Skinny – Like Rocky Hill, they’re in good position. Prince Tech is just waiting for one or two bonuses to swing their way to clinch. Consider them in.

Trinity Catholic (7-2, 1060 [117.8] 1030 [114.4])

Opponent: Wilton (4-5, 160 pts)
Point potential: 1280 (128.0) – 1230 (123.0); 1120 (112.0) – 1070 (107.0) Max: 1250 (125.0) – 1200 (120.0); Min: 1090 (109.0) – 1040 (104.0)
Bonus games (40): New Canaan (vs. Darien); Fairfield Warde (vs. Fairfield Ludlowe); Harding (vs. Bridgeport Central); Bassick (vs. Bullard Havens); Norwalk (vs. McMahon)
The Skinny Update, Westhill forfeits: It’s easy for Trinity: Beat Wilton and if New Canaan, Warde, Harding or Norwalk win they’ll clinch it. Then you can resume your dream season. Lose to Wilton and… after all that’s happened, you don’t even want to know what’s next. (Hint: It involves turning in your uniforms).

A Little Help Here?

These teams need to win and hope a few bonus games go their way, or against their opponents.

Woodland (6-2, 900 [125.0])

Opponent: Seymour (5-4, 150 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1100 (122.2) – 1050 (116.7) Min: 950 (105.5) – 900 (100.0)
Bonus games (50): Holy Cross (vs. Wolcott); Sacred Heart (vs. Wilby); Naugatuck (vs. Ansonia); Torrington (vs. Watertown); Kennedy (vs Crosby)
The Skinny — They’re in great shape to grab the final playoff spot with a victory over Seymour. Might even get a break and snag the No. 7 seed, thereby avoiding a dreaded third matchup with Ansonia. Only if NWC beats Rocky Hill will Woodland sweat a bit, for then Rocky Hill and NWC could possibly edge the Hawks out on bonuses. If Trinity and NWC lose, the Hawks will clinch.

Northwest Catholic (7-2, 980 [108.9])

Opponent: Rocky Hill (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1230 (123.0)-1160 (116.0); Min: 1050 (105.0) – 980 (98.0)
Bonus games (70): Bristol Eastern (vs. Bristol Central); Plainville (vs. Farmington); Tolland (vs. E.O. Smith); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Platt (vs. Maloney); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); Rockville (vs. South Windsor).
The Skinny — Northwest can certainly muck things up for the bubble teams by beating Rocky Hill, since Rocky Hill will drop right back into this division’s messy pack alongside NWC, Woodland (if it wins) and Prince Tech. NWC won’t quite clinch with a win. It’s going to come down to bonus games. As many as possible. There’s solid chance NWC can get in, however. If Trinity Catholic loses, they will.

Stonington (7-2, 950 [105.6])

Opponent: Westerly, R.I. (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1170 (117.0)-1140 (114.0)
Bonuses (30): Killingly (vs Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); East Lyme (vs. Waterford); St. Bernard/Norwich Tech (vs. Montville)
The Skinny — Stonington’s in trouble. A win over Westerly isn’t a given, and neither is a playoff berth with a victory. Should Stonington win, they’ll be praying Rocky Hill takes out NWC and then either Woodland, Trinity Catholic or Prince Tech to lose.

Cromwell (7-2, 940 [104.4])

Opponent: Coginchaug (3-6, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1100 (110.0)
The Skinny – They’re in rough shape. They have no bonus help and, not only do a bunch of teams (Woodland, NWC, Stonington) have to lose just to open a spot, teams like Oxford and Derby must lose, too.

Oxford (7-2, 930 [103.3])

Opponent: Pomperaug (4-5, 160 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1130 (113.0) – 1120 (112.0)
Bonuses (10): Bethel (vs. Brookfield)
The Skinny — The Wolverines are having the best season in school history. They’re still longshots here. But here you go Oxford fans. You need to beat Pomperaug and then the following: NWC and Stonington to lose, and either Seymour to beat Woodland or Wilton to beat Trinity Catholic. Yes, you are BIG Seymour fans (and Wilton fans). If those things happen, then you can start to get excited. Like, ‘Oh my God, we’re going to the playoffs!’ excited.

Like, ‘Oh my God, we’re going to play… Ansonia?!?!?’ excited.

Yeah. Get a little NVL preview, Wolverines.

False Hope

Derby (6-3), Holy Cross (6-3)

For the sake of telling you Derby fans, you’d need beat Shelton for the first time since 2002, then you would need everything Oxford needs, plus Oxford losing to Pomperaug to get that ‘Oh my God, we’re going to the playoffs! … Ansonia again!?!?!’ feeling.

We think Derby ending its season by beating Shelton would probably taste better than anything except a state championship.

Maybe not.

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UPDATED: With Westhill’s forfeits, St. Joseph has earned some points, but the added bonus isn’t likely to change much, except increase their chances at earning a home playoff game. A loss and the Hogs are still done.

♦♦♦

His Madness is pulling his hair out over this division.

Only two spots have been clinched and there are 10 teams vying for the six remaining. There are a bunch of teams on the bubble with realistic chances to get in. No ‘win-and-in’ scenario is a given.

Welcome back to nuttiness, Class M. How we’ve missed you.

Kyle Brennan and I broke it all down on the ‘The Show,’ the Laxworm.com’s radio show. Listen to it all here.

♦♦♦

Here’s the team-by-team breakdown.

Remember: Class M teams get 100 points for any Class M victory or Class S league victory; They get 110 points for any Class L victory; 120 points for any Class LL victory. A non-league Class S victory is worth 90 points. Teams then get 10 point for every victory collected from defeated opponents.

Top eight teams reach the playoffs.

These points are taken from Matt Fischer’s H.A.L. Supercomputer State Playoff worksheet.

For a complete breakdown of all the other classes, follow these links: CLASS LL | CLASS L | CLASS S

Away we go…

They’re In!

Wolcott (8-1, 1150 [127.8])

Point potential: Max: 1360 (136.0)-1340 (134.0); Min: 1200 (120.0) – 1180 (118.0)
Opponent: Holy Cross (160)
Bonus games: (20): Wilby (vs. Sacred Heart); Derby (vs. Shelton)
The Skinny – They’re the top seed with a victory. A loss and who knows where they’ll end up.

Berlin (8-1, 1130 [125.6])

Point potential: Max: 1340 (134.0) – 1290 (129.0);  Min: 1190 (119.0) – 1140 (114.0)
Opponent: New Britain (3-6, 150 pts)
Bonus games (50): Plainville (vs. Farmington); Tolland (vs. E.O. Smith); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); Rockville (vs. South Windsor)
The Skinny — Win put them in line for either the No. 2 or No. 1 seed, depending on how Wolcott fares. A loss and who knows.

Just Win, Baby

Ellington/Somers (8-1, 1060 [117.8])

Opponent: Coventry/Windham Tech (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1270 (127.0); Min: 1100 (111.0)
The Skinny – Has only guaranteed points left, so its point totals are set. A win gets them in and a home quarterfinal. A loss to Coventry and the Knights will be scoreboard watching. Almost everyone in the field can pass a 111.0 average. So they’ll either need bonus points denied to Montville and Bullard-Havens (likely), or teams to start losing, especially Barlow to Weston.

Barlow (8-1, 1030 [114.4])

Opponent: Weston (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1240 (124.0); Min: 1070 (107.0)
The Skinny – It’s basically feast or famine when Barlow takes on Weston. A win clinches the school’s first playoff berth. A loss, and it’ll be time to start scoreboard watching. Barlow will need Ellington/Somers to knock off Coventry, and then get two other contenders to lose: Hillhouse, St. Joseph, New London, Bullard-Havens… you name it. If two lose and Ellington wins, they’ve backed in.

Hillhouse (7-2, 1000 [111.1])

Opponent: Wilbur Cross (2-7, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1180 (118.0) – 1150 (115.0); Min: 1050 (105.0) – 1020 (102.0)
Bonus games (30): North Haven (vs. Amity); Guilford (vs. Hand); Branford (vs. East Haven)
The Skinny – The Academics are in by beating Cross in the Elm City Bowl, a loss and the Acs would need major help, specifically three (or four!) contenders to lose. Just win, baby. Nobody wants to see this team staring at them.

St. Joseph (7-2, 980 [108.9])

Opponent: Trumbull (4-5, 160 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1200 (120.0) – 1150 (115.0); Min: 1040 (104.0) – 990 (99.0)
Bonus games (50): Darien (vs. New Canaan); Fairfield Warde (vs. Fairfield Ludlowe); Stamford (vs. Westhill); Harding (vs. Central); Bassick (vs. Bullard Havens Tech)
The Skinny – Same as Ellington/Somers, Hillhouse and Barlow: Just win, baby. A loss, and the Hogs will be slaughtered. We’re pretty sure most of this field is hoping for that, too,

New London (7-2, 970 [107.8])

Opponent: Norwich Free Academy (9-0, 210 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1270 (127.0) – 1220 (122.0); Min: 1030 (103.0) – 980 (98.0)
Bonus games (50): Killingly (vs. Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); Montville (vs. St. Bernard/Norwich Tech); Plainfield (vs. Griswold); Ledyard (vs. Fitch); Woodstock Academy (vs. Windham)
The Skinny – Beat unbeaten NFA, and the Whalers will clinch a spot and a home game. Loss and they’ll be D.O.A., opening the door for someone else.

Weston (7-2, 910 [101.1])

Opponent: Barlow (8-1, 180 pts)
Point potential: Max 1130 (113.0) – 1120 (112.0); Min: 950 (95.0) -940 (94.0)
Bonus games 10: Bethel (vs. Brookfield)
The Skinny – The Trojans must beat Barlow. Period. They’re in with a win.

A Little Help Here?

While that would leave two spots (remember, the Barlow-Weston loser gets knocked down), none of the above teams are guaranteed to win. Here’s a look at those needing to win, plus the above teams to fall and (maybe) a little extra. These teams all have point potential hovering around 1110

Bullard-Havens (8-2, 1070 [107.0])

Opponent: Bassick (1-8, 110 pts) Def. Bassick 49-24
Point potential: Max: 1120 (112.0) – 1090 (109.0)
Bonus points (30): Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (vs. Killingly); Wilcox Tech (vs. Whitney Tech); Cheney Tech (vs. East Catholic)
The Skinny – The victory over 1-win Bassick isn’t going to secure a bid. They’d prefer if Ellington/Somers beat Coventry to remove some a potential bonus-point logjam. Weston beating Barlow would be ideal, too. That would still leave five of contenders for four spots. Bullard-Havens would clinch if St. Joseph, Hillhouse or New London lost, or if Montville is denied 30 of its 20 bonus points. They’re close and will be doing some heavy scoreboard watching on Thanksgiving.

Montville (7-2, 950 [105.6])

Opponent: St. Bernard/Norwich Tech (0-9, 100 pts)
Point potential: Max 1110 (111.0) – 1060 (106.0); Min: 1010 (101.0) – 960 (96.0)
Bonus games (50): Killingly (Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM); Watertown (vs. Torrington); Stonington (vs. Westerly, RI); Windham (vs. Woodstock Academy)
The Skinny – Should beat St. Bernard, then it would need a few teams in the race to lose, beginning with Coventry. Bullard-Havens losing to Bassick on Tuesday night would be a great way for Montville to kick off Thanksgiving Week. If both of those things happen, Montville will be hoping enough bonuses to come in. If they get two, they’ll lock it up. They’ll also lock it up if St. Joseph or New London or Hillhouse lose.

Coventry/Windham Tech/Bolton (7-2, 900 [100.0])

Opponent: at Ellington/Somers (8-1, 180 pts)
Point potential: Max 1120 (112.0) – 1110 (111.0); Min: 940 (94.0) 930 (93.0)
Bonus games (10): Granby Memorial (vs. Canton)
The Skinny – Coventry is a potential fly in the ointment in this division. A victory over Ellington/Somers potentially (and likely) knocks as many as four teams, Bullard-Havens, Montville, Ledyard and Barlow (should the Falcons lose to Weston), out of the running and put the Patriots just a bonus game or two from clinching.

Ledyard (6-3, 810 [90.0])

Opponent: Fitch (8-1, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max 1050 (105.0) – 990 (99.0)
Bonus games (40): Killingly (vs Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM); Montville (vs. St. Bernard/Norwich Tech); Griswold (vs. Plainfield)
The Skinny – Hooboy. Where to start. It’ll need Ellington/Somers, Barlow to win to have the door opened a crack. After that, they’ll need a bunch of other teams ahead of them to lose.

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His Madness returns!

Up next is a strong Class L field, not as strong as LL, but pretty solid.

This playoff division is done-diddily-done as far as qualifiers, save for one spot. It’s all about seeding, really. So it’s not so mad.

For a complete breakdown of all the other classes, follow these links: CLASS LL |  CLASS M | CLASS S

Also: Kyle Brennan and I broke it all down on the ‘The Show,’ the Laxworm.com’s radio show. Listen to it all here.

Now, onto the madness:

Don’t forget: Class L teams get 100 points for a league victory, and an extra 10 points for a victory over any Class LL school. Non-league victories over a Class M school is worth 90 points. Non-league victories over a Class S school is worth 80. The teams then earn 10 points for every win accumulated by a defeated opponent.

Top eight teams get in.

They’re In!

Hand (9-0, 1430 [158.9])

Opponent: Guilford (4-5, 140 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1650 (165.0)-1600 (160.0); Min: 1500 (150.0)-1450 (145.0)
Bonus games (50): Notre Dame-West Haven (vs Hamden); West Haven (vs. Fairfield Prep); Xavier (vs. Middletown); Shelton (vs. Derby); Cheshire (vs. Southington)
The Skinny – They’ve clinched a home quarterfinal and will almost positively lock up the No. 1 seed with a victory over Guilford.

Windsor (9-0, 1380 [153.3])

Opponent: Done with regular season.
Point potential: 1450 (161.1) – 1390 (154.4)
Bonuses (60): Wethersfield (vs Newington); Farmington (vs. Plainville); RHAM (vs. Bacon Academy); Middletown (vs. Xavier); Maloney (vs. Platt); Hartford Public (vs. Weaver)
The Skinny — It’s clinched at least a No. 2 seed. It’ll be No. 1 if Hand loses to Guilford (not bloody likely).

Avon (10-0, 1400 [140.0])

Opponent: Done with regular season.
Point potential: 1450 (145.0) (all of their outstanding bonus games are guaranteed).
The Skinny — They’ve clinched a home quarterfinal. So now they’ll just sit tight, gnaw on Turkey and watch chaos ensue around them and get ready to host someone, most likely as the No. 4 seed.

Masuk (9-0, 1240 [137.8])

Point potential: Max: 1500 (150.0)-1470 (147.0); Min: 1300 (130.0)-1270 (127.0)
Opponent: Newtown (8-0, 200 pts)
Bonus games (30): Pomperaug (vs. Oxford); Brookfield (vs. Bethel); Bunnell (vs. Stratford)
The Skinny – Masuk will clinch a home quarterfinal with a victory over Newtown. It’ll probably get as high as the No. 3 seed. A loss, and Masuk would be in a bonus fight with New Canaan, Fitch or Middletown for seeding. They could potentially fall as far as No. 8, but it’s not likely. Expect a “home” game vs. Fitch, most likely at Bunnell.

Middletown (8-1, 1170 [130.0])

Opponent: Xavier (8-1, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1410 (141.0-1370 (137.0); Min: 1220 (122.0)-1180 (118.0)
Bonus games (40): Wethersfield (vs. Newington); Farmington (vs. Plainville); Maloney (vs. Platt); Hartford Public (vs. Weaver).
The Skinny — Even a glorious win over Xavier probably won’t get Sal Morello and the Dragons a home quarterfinal unless someone above them loses. It would likely lock up a No. 5 spot and a trip to Avon. A loss to Xavier would drop the Dragons to No. 7 and give them a rematch with Windsor. Middletown led the Warriors back in October only to lose late.

New Canaan (8-1, 1100 [122.2] 1120 (124.4)

Point potential: Max: 1320 (132.0) – 1280 (128.0); Min: 1160 (116.0) – 1120 (112.0) Max: 1340 (134.0) – 1300 (130.0); Min: 1180 (118.0) – 1140 (114.0)
Opponent: vs. Darien (6-3, 160 pts)
Bonus games (40): Fairfield Warde (vs. Fairfield Ludlowe); Stamford (vs. Westhill); Bassick (vs. Bullard Havens Tech); Wilton (vs. Trinity Catholic)
The Skinny – The Rams have virtually no shot at hosting a quarterfinal game. A win over Darien will get the Rams as high as No. 5 seed. They won’t drop lower than No. 7 if everyone above them wins. A loss to Darien probably puts the Rams at No. 7 and headed for a Windsor rematch of last year’s thrilling semifinal game.

Update, Westhill forfeits: Gained 20 points, but that doesn’t change NC’s scenarios enough to give them a home game unless someone ahead loses.

Fitch (8-1, 1080 [120.0])

Opponent: Ledyard (6-3, 160 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1310 (131.0) – 1250 (125.0) Min: 1150 (115.0) – 1090 (109.0)
Bonus games (60): East Lyme (vs. Waterford); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM); St. Bernard/Norwich Tech (vs. Montville); New London (vs. Norwich Free Academy); Griswold (vs. Plainfield); Stonington (Westerly, RI)
The Skinny – A win over Ledyard will put Fitch in position possibly as high as No. 5 if enough teams above them lose or they get enough bonus help. It’s most likely it’ll finish at No. 6 and travel to Monroe whichever field Masuk calls home or Avon.

Just Win, Baby

Platt can slam the door shut on this division by beating 3-6 Maloney on Thanksgiving. Sounds easy, but this rivalry’s been known to surprise.

Platt (7-2, 950 [105.6])

Opponent: Maloney (3-6, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1140 (114.0)-1080 (108.0)
Bonus games (60): Berlin (vs New Britain); Plainville (vs Farmington); Tolland (vs. E.O. Smith); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); Rockville (vs. South Windsor)
The Skinny – Win and they’ll likely be rewarded with a trip to the Surf Club. Lose and they’re out, opening the door for Farmington.

A Little Help Here?

Farmington (7-2, 880 [97.8])

Opponent: Plainville (3-6, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1050 (105.0)-1020 (102.0)
Bonus games (30): RHAM (vs. Bacon Academy); E.O. Smith (vs. Tolland); Maloney (vs. Platt)
The Skinny – Must beat Plainville and hope Maloney upsets Platt. That’ll put the Indians just mere bonuses away from clinching over Darien.

Darien (6-3, 810 [90.0] 820 [91.1])

Opponent: New Canaan (8-1, 180 points)
Point potential: Max: 1030 (103.0)-1010 (101.0) Max: 1040 (104.0) – 1020 (102.0)
Bonuses (20): Bassick (vs. Bullard Havens); Danbury (vs. Ridgefield)
The Skinny — Beat the Rams for the first time since 2002, Platt must lose and, since there’s almost no chance they’ll catch Farmington on bonuses, they’ll need Farmington to lose, too. They’re all but done.

Update, Westhill forfeits: Darien picked up 10 points, increasing slightly the chances they’ll catch Farmington on bonus points. They’re still a longshot.

False Hope

North Haven (6-3)

North Haven would need to win and all three teams ahead of it to lose. That would clinch. But it’s not happening.