UPDATED: With Westhill’s forfeits, St. Joseph has earned some points, but the added bonus isn’t likely to change much, except increase their chances at earning a home playoff game. A loss and the Hogs are still done.
His Madness is pulling his hair out over this division.
Only two spots have been clinched and there are 10 teams vying for the six remaining. There are a bunch of teams on the bubble with realistic chances to get in. No ‘win-and-in’ scenario is a given.
Welcome back to nuttiness, Class M. How we’ve missed you.
Kyle Brennan and I broke it all down on the ‘The Show,’ the Laxworm.com’s radio show. Listen to it all here.
Here’s the team-by-team breakdown.
Remember: Class M teams get 100 points for any Class M victory or Class S league victory; They get 110 points for any Class L victory; 120 points for any Class LL victory. A non-league Class S victory is worth 90 points. Teams then get 10 point for every victory collected from defeated opponents.
Top eight teams reach the playoffs.
These points are taken from Matt Fischer’s H.A.L. Supercomputer State Playoff worksheet.
Away we go…
Wolcott (8-1, 1150 [127.8])
Point potential: Max: 1360 (136.0)-1340 (134.0); Min: 1200 (120.0) – 1180 (118.0)
Opponent: Holy Cross (160)
Bonus games: (20): Wilby (vs. Sacred Heart); Derby (vs. Shelton)
The Skinny — They’re the top seed with a victory. A loss and who knows where they’ll end up.
Berlin (8-1, 1130 [125.6])
Point potential: Max: 1340 (134.0) – 1290 (129.0); Min: 1190 (119.0) – 1140 (114.0)
Opponent: New Britain (3-6, 150 pts)
Bonus games (50): Plainville (vs. Farmington); Tolland (vs. E.O. Smith); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); Rockville (vs. South Windsor)
The Skinny — Win put them in line for either the No. 2 or No. 1 seed, depending on how Wolcott fares. A loss and who knows.
Just Win, Baby
Ellington/Somers (8-1, 1060 [117.8])
Opponent: Coventry/Windham Tech (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1270 (127.0); Min: 1100 (111.0)
The Skinny — Has only guaranteed points left, so its point totals are set. A win gets them in and a home quarterfinal. A loss to Coventry and the Knights will be scoreboard watching. Almost everyone in the field can pass a 111.0 average. So they’ll either need bonus points denied to Montville and Bullard-Havens (likely), or teams to start losing, especially Barlow to Weston.
Barlow (8-1, 1030 [114.4])
Opponent: Weston (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1240 (124.0); Min: 1070 (107.0)
The Skinny — It’s basically feast or famine when Barlow takes on Weston. A win clinches the school’s first playoff berth. A loss, and it’ll be time to start scoreboard watching. Barlow will need Ellington/Somers to knock off Coventry, and then get two other contenders to lose: Hillhouse, St. Joseph, New London, Bullard-Havens… you name it. If two lose and Ellington wins, they’ve backed in.
Hillhouse (7-2, 1000 [111.1])
Opponent: Wilbur Cross (2-7, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1180 (118.0) – 1150 (115.0); Min: 1050 (105.0) – 1020 (102.0)
Bonus games (30): North Haven (vs. Amity); Guilford (vs. Hand); Branford (vs. East Haven)
The Skinny — The Academics are in by beating Cross in the Elm City Bowl, a loss and the Acs would need major help, specifically three (or four!) contenders to lose. Just win, baby. Nobody wants to see this team staring at them.
St. Joseph (7-2, 980 [108.9])
Opponent: Trumbull (4-5, 160 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1200 (120.0) – 1150 (115.0); Min: 1040 (104.0) – 990 (99.0)
Bonus games (50): Darien (vs. New Canaan); Fairfield Warde (vs. Fairfield Ludlowe); Stamford (vs. Westhill); Harding (vs. Central); Bassick (vs. Bullard Havens Tech)
The Skinny — Same as Ellington/Somers, Hillhouse and Barlow: Just win, baby. A loss, and the Hogs will be slaughtered. We’re pretty sure most of this field is hoping for that, too,
New London (7-2, 970 [107.8])
Opponent: Norwich Free Academy (9-0, 210 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1270 (127.0) – 1220 (122.0); Min: 1030 (103.0) – 980 (98.0)
Bonus games (50): Killingly (vs. Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); Montville (vs. St. Bernard/Norwich Tech); Plainfield (vs. Griswold); Ledyard (vs. Fitch); Woodstock Academy (vs. Windham)
The Skinny — Beat unbeaten NFA, and the Whalers will clinch a spot and a home game. Loss and they’ll be D.O.A., opening the door for someone else.
Weston (7-2, 910 [101.1])
Opponent: Barlow (8-1, 180 pts)
Point potential: Max 1130 (113.0) – 1120 (112.0); Min: 950 (95.0) -940 (94.0)
Bonus games 10: Bethel (vs. Brookfield)
The Skinny — The Trojans must beat Barlow. Period. They’re in with a win.
A Little Help Here?
While that would leave two spots (remember, the Barlow-Weston loser gets knocked down), none of the above teams are guaranteed to win. Here’s a look at those needing to win, plus the above teams to fall and (maybe) a little extra. These teams all have point potential hovering around 1110
Bullard-Havens (8-2, 1070 [107.0])
Opponent: Bassick (1-8, 110 pts) Def. Bassick 49-24
Point potential: Max: 1120 (112.0) – 1090 (109.0)
Bonus points (30): Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (vs. Killingly); Wilcox Tech (vs. Whitney Tech); Cheney Tech (vs. East Catholic)
The Skinny — The victory over 1-win Bassick isn’t going to secure a bid. They’d prefer if Ellington/Somers beat Coventry to remove some a potential bonus-point logjam. Weston beating Barlow would be ideal, too. That would still leave five of contenders for four spots. Bullard-Havens would clinch if St. Joseph, Hillhouse or New London lost, or if Montville is denied 30 of its 20 bonus points. They’re close and will be doing some heavy scoreboard watching on Thanksgiving.
Montville (7-2, 950 [105.6])
Opponent: St. Bernard/Norwich Tech (0-9, 100 pts)
Point potential: Max 1110 (111.0) – 1060 (106.0); Min: 1010 (101.0) – 960 (96.0)
Bonus games (50): Killingly (Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM); Watertown (vs. Torrington); Stonington (vs. Westerly, RI); Windham (vs. Woodstock Academy)
The Skinny — Should beat St. Bernard, then it would need a few teams in the race to lose, beginning with Coventry. Bullard-Havens losing to Bassick on Tuesday night would be a great way for Montville to kick off Thanksgiving Week. If both of those things happen, Montville will be hoping enough bonuses to come in. If they get two, they’ll lock it up. They’ll also lock it up if St. Joseph or New London or Hillhouse lose.
Coventry/Windham Tech/Bolton (7-2, 900 [100.0])
Opponent: at Ellington/Somers (8-1, 180 pts)
Point potential: Max 1120 (112.0) – 1110 (111.0); Min: 940 (94.0) 930 (93.0)
Bonus games (10): Granby Memorial (vs. Canton)
The Skinny — Coventry is a potential fly in the ointment in this division. A victory over Ellington/Somers potentially (and likely) knocks as many as four teams, Bullard-Havens, Montville, Ledyard and Barlow (should the Falcons lose to Weston), out of the running and put the Patriots just a bonus game or two from clinching.
Ledyard (6-3, 810 [90.0])
Opponent: Fitch (8-1, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max 1050 (105.0) – 990 (99.0)
Bonus games (40): Killingly (vs Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM); Montville (vs. St. Bernard/Norwich Tech); Griswold (vs. Plainfield)
The Skinny — Hooboy. Where to start. It’ll need Ellington/Somers, Barlow to win to have the door opened a crack. After that, they’ll need a bunch of other teams ahead of them to lose.