UPDATE: Westhill’s forfeits has lessened Trinity Catholic’s chances somewhat. The Crusaders are still in good shape, they just need a victory and a New Canaan victory to clinch a playoff spot.
Finally, His Madness comes to the final state playoff division, Class S. Not many local teams in the mix here aside from Ansonia and Trinity and mayyyybe Oxford.
Last year’s state championship participants are practically out of the running. Ansonia, last year’ Class M champion, has returned to make this field miserable.
So your Mad Playoff Scientist will dispense with the pleasantries and get right to it.
These points are taken from Matt Fischer’s H.A.L. Playoff Supercomputer.
Also, Kyle Brennan and I broke it all down on the ‘The Show,’ the Laxworm.com’s radio show. Listen to it all here.
DON’T FORGET: Class LL teams get 100 points for every league win; 90 points vs. a non-league Class L team, 80 for non-league Class M team and 70 points for a non-league Class S team. Then teams collect 10 points for every win by a defeated opponent. Add the total up and divide by the number of games played and you have your playoff point average.
A team’s “Max” is the most points it can reach with a victory. A team’s “Min” is the most points it can accumulate with a loss.
Top eight point averages reach the playoffs.
Now, onto the scenarios…
Ansonia (9-0, 1420 [157.8])
Opponent: Naugatuck (6-3, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1670 (167.0)-1630 (163.0); Min: 1480 (148.0) – 1450 (145.0)
Bonus games (30): Wilby (vs. Sacred Heart); Crosby (vs. Kennedy); Derby (vs. Shelton)
The Skinny — They should be the top seed with a win over Naugatuck. They’ve already clinched a home quarterfinal.
Capital Prep/Classical Magnet/Achieve 1st (10-0, 1490 [149.0]) – updated
Opponent: vs. Prince Tech (8-1, 180 pts) def. Prince Tech
Point potential: Max: 1540 (154.0) – 1520 (152.0)
Bonus games 20: Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (vs. Killingly); Bullard Havens (vs Bassick); Cheney Tech (vs. East Catholic)
The Skinny – Clinches at least a No. 2 seed and a home quarterfinal game with a victory
Hyde Leadership (9-0, 1240 [137.8]
Opponent: vs. North Branford (9-0, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1470 (147.0); Min: 1280 (128.0)
The Skinny – Plays North Branford on Thanksgiving eve. Winner will get a home quarterfinal. The loser will be looking a road trip.
North Branford (9-0, 1240 [137.8]
Opponent: vs. Hyde (9-0, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1470 (147.0); Min: 1280 (128.0)
The Skinny – See Leadership, Hyde.
Just Win, Baby
Rocky Hill (8-1, 1150 [127.8])
Opponent: vs. Northwest Catholic (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1390 (139.0) – 1320 (132.0); Min: 1220 (120.0) – 1150 (115.0)
Bonus games (70): Bristol Central (vs. Bristol Eastern); Plainville (vs. Farmington); Tolland (vs. E.O. Smith); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Platt (vs. Maloney); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); Rockville (vs. South Windsor)
The Skinny — The Terriers are in a great spot. Win and they’ll grab one of the last remaining quarterfinal home games. A loss and they’ll probably still squeak in.
Prince Tech (8-2, 1150 [125.0])
Opponent: vs. Capital Prep/Classical Magnet (9-0, 190 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1200 (120.0) – 1170 (117.0)
Bonuses (30): Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (vs. Killingly); Bullard-Havens (vs. Bassick); Wolcott Tech (vs. Abbott Tech); Cheney Tech (vs. East Catholic)
The Skinny – Like Rocky Hill, they’re in good position. Prince Tech is just waiting for one or two bonuses to swing their way to clinch. Consider them in.
Trinity Catholic (7-2, 1060 [117.8] 1030 [114.4])
Opponent: Wilton (4-5, 160 pts)
Point potential: 1280 (128.0) – 1230 (123.0); 1120 (112.0) – 1070 (107.0) Max: 1250 (125.0) – 1200 (120.0); Min: 1090 (109.0) – 1040 (104.0)
Bonus games (40): New Canaan (vs. Darien); Fairfield Warde (vs. Fairfield Ludlowe); Harding (vs. Bridgeport Central); Bassick (vs. Bullard Havens); Norwalk (vs. McMahon)
The Skinny Update, Westhill forfeits: It’s easy for Trinity: Beat Wilton and if New Canaan, Warde, Harding or Norwalk win they’ll clinch it. Then you can resume your dream season. Lose to Wilton and… after all that’s happened, you don’t even want to know what’s next. (Hint: It involves turning in your uniforms).
A Little Help Here?
These teams need to win and hope a few bonus games go their way, or against their opponents.
Woodland (6-2, 900 [125.0])
Opponent: Seymour (5-4, 150 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1100 (122.2) – 1050 (116.7) Min: 950 (105.5) – 900 (100.0)
Bonus games (50): Holy Cross (vs. Wolcott); Sacred Heart (vs. Wilby); Naugatuck (vs. Ansonia); Torrington (vs. Watertown); Kennedy (vs Crosby)
The Skinny — They’re in great shape to grab the final playoff spot with a victory over Seymour. Might even get a break and snag the No. 7 seed, thereby avoiding a dreaded third matchup with Ansonia. Only if NWC beats Rocky Hill will Woodland sweat a bit, for then Rocky Hill and NWC could possibly edge the Hawks out on bonuses. If Trinity and NWC lose, the Hawks will clinch.
Northwest Catholic (7-2, 980 [108.9])
Opponent: Rocky Hill (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1230 (123.0)-1160 (116.0); Min: 1050 (105.0) – 980 (98.0)
Bonus games (70): Bristol Eastern (vs. Bristol Central); Plainville (vs. Farmington); Tolland (vs. E.O. Smith); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Platt (vs. Maloney); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); Rockville (vs. South Windsor).
The Skinny — Northwest can certainly muck things up for the bubble teams by beating Rocky Hill, since Rocky Hill will drop right back into this division’s messy pack alongside NWC, Woodland (if it wins) and Prince Tech. NWC won’t quite clinch with a win. It’s going to come down to bonus games. As many as possible. There’s solid chance NWC can get in, however. If Trinity Catholic loses, they will.
Stonington (7-2, 950 [105.6])
Opponent: Westerly, R.I. (7-2, 170 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1170 (117.0)-1140 (114.0)
Bonuses (30): Killingly (vs Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech); East Lyme (vs. Waterford); St. Bernard/Norwich Tech (vs. Montville)
The Skinny — Stonington’s in trouble. A win over Westerly isn’t a given, and neither is a playoff berth with a victory. Should Stonington win, they’ll be praying Rocky Hill takes out NWC and then either Woodland, Trinity Catholic or Prince Tech to lose.
Cromwell (7-2, 940 [104.4])
Opponent: Coginchaug (3-6, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1100 (110.0)
The Skinny – They’re in rough shape. They have no bonus help and, not only do a bunch of teams (Woodland, NWC, Stonington) have to lose just to open a spot, teams like Oxford and Derby must lose, too.
Oxford (7-2, 930 [103.3])
Opponent: Pomperaug (4-5, 160 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1130 (113.0) – 1120 (112.0)
Bonuses (10): Bethel (vs. Brookfield)
The Skinny — The Wolverines are having the best season in school history. They’re still longshots here. But here you go Oxford fans. You need to beat Pomperaug and then the following: NWC and Stonington to lose, and either Seymour to beat Woodland or Wilton to beat Trinity Catholic. Yes, you are BIG Seymour fans (and Wilton fans). If those things happen, then you can start to get excited. Like, ‘Oh my God, we’re going to the playoffs!’ excited.
Like, ‘Oh my God, we’re going to play… Ansonia?!?!?’ excited.
Yeah. Get a little NVL preview, Wolverines.
Derby (6-3), Holy Cross (6-3)
For the sake of telling you Derby fans, you’d need beat Shelton for the first time since 2002, then you would need everything Oxford needs, plus Oxford losing to Pomperaug to get that ‘Oh my God, we’re going to the playoffs! … Ansonia again!?!?!’ feeling.
We think Derby ending its season by beating Shelton would probably taste better than anything except a state championship.