SPB's High School Football

His Madness likes this division. Nice and easy. Straightforward. No fuss.

Class M has cleaned up nicely since we last spoke. Three spots are still up for grabs for seven teams. Victories by all of the current placeholders will complete the field.

If any one of them falter, the door opens for Bethel. If any two, Gilbert and Hillhouse get in the mix. If all three lose, Bethel, Gilbert, Hillhouse and Putnam/Touretellotte/Ellis Tech all have a shot.

The rest is just seeding.

Remember: Class M teams get 100 points for any Class M victory or Class S league victory; They get 110 points for any Class L victory; 120 points for any Class LL victory. A non-league Class S victory is worth 90 points. Teams then get 10 point for every victory collected from defeated opponents.

Top eight teams reach the playoffs.

For other divisional playoff breakdowns follow these links: CLASS LL | CLASS L | CLASS S

Away we go…

Clinched

Ansonia (9-0)

Point potential: Max: 1610-1580. Min: 1410-1380
Opponent: Naugatuck (6-3, 170 pts)
Bonus games 30: Crosby (vs Kennedy); Derby (vs. Shelton); Wilby (vs. Sacred Heart)
The Skinny -- Will clinch top seed with a victory over Naugy. Won’t fall further than the No. 2 seed with a loss.

Ellington/Somers (9-0)

Point potential: Max: 1470; Min: 1270
Opponent: Coventry/Windham Tech (9-0, 200 pts)
The Skinny – Has only guaranteed points left. A win will give them No. 2 seed. An Ansonia loss will clinch the No. 1 seed. Loss still has them in line for a home game.

Ledyard (8-1)

Point potential: Max: 1380-1320; Min: 1220-1160
Opponent: Fitch (5-4, 160 pts)
Bonus games 60: Branford (vs. East Haven); Montville (Vs. St. Bernard); Stonington (vs. Westerly); Killingly (vs. Putna/T/ET); Windham (vs. Woodstock Academy); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM).
The Skinny – Win puts Ledyard in line for either the No. 3 or 4 seed depending on bonuses.

Berlin (8-1)

Point potential: Max: 1380-1300; Min: 1200-1120
Opponent: New Britain (6-3, 180 pts)
Bonus games 80: Rocky Hill (vs. NWC); Rockville (vs. South Windsor); Tolland (vs. EO Smith); Platt (vs. Maloney); Weaver (vs. Hartford Public); East Catholic (vs. Cheney Tech); Plainville (vs. FArmington); Bloomfield (vs. Fermi)
The Skinny — Win puts Berlin in line for the No. 3 or 4 seed depending on bonuses.

Cheney Tech (8-1)

Point potential: Max: 1250-1220; Min: 1140-1110
Opponent: East Catholic (2-7, 120 pts)
Bonus games 30: Bullard-Havens (vs. BAssick); Prince Tech (vs. Capital Prep/Classical); Putnam/T/ET (vs. Killingly).
The Skinny – Victory puts Cheney in line for at least at No. 5 seed. Maybe No. 4.

Win and In

Three spots remain. Wolcott, Waterford and Stonington will round out the field with victories.

Wolcott (7-2)

Point potential: Max: 1200-1170; Min: 1020-990
Opponent: Holy Cross (180)
Bonus games 30: Derby (vs. Shelton); Watertown (vs. Torrington); Wilby (vs. Sacred Heart)
The Skinny – In with a win over Holy Cross. Can still get in with a loss, but Wolcott would be counting on only 30 bonuses. It’s going to be real close with the other contenders, especially Bethel.

Waterford (6-3)

Point potential: Max 1110-1050; Min 960-900
Opponent: East Lyme (4-5, 150 pts)
Bonus games 60: Stonington (Vs. Westerly); Killingly (vs. Putnam/T/ET); Windham (vs. Wodstoock Academy); Fitch (vs. Ledyard); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM); NFA (vs. New London).
The Skinny – Clinches with a win. In serious trouble with a loss. Its max with a loss is just 960, well within the reach of some of the other contenders. It would need practically all of bonus help and several more teams below to lose to get a second chance.

Stonington (6-3)

Point potential: Max 1120-1060; Min 940-880
Opponent: Westerly R.I. (7 wins; 180 pts)
Bonus games 60: St. Bernard/NT (vs. Montville); Plainfield (Vs. Griswold); Killingly (vs Putnam/T/ET); Foran (vs. Law); Fitch (vs. Ledyard); NFA (vs. New London)
The Skinny -- Clinches with a win. All but dead with a loss.

A little help here?

A loss by any of of the above three teams, particularly Waterford and Stonington, will open the door for Bethel. Losses by those two opens the door for Gilbert, Hillhouse and Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech.

Bethel (6-3)

Point potential: Max 1030-990; Min 870-840
Opponent: Brookfield (5-4, 150 pts)
Bonus games 40: Oxford (vs. Pomperaug); Immaculate (vs. ND-Fairfield); Barlow (vs. Weston); Bunnell (vs. Stratford).
The Skinny – Must beat Brookfield and get either Waterford or Stonington to lose. That’ll clinch a berth for the Wildcats. A Wolcott loss might help, too, but would entail a tight race for bonus points. Bethel would have an ever-so-slight edge.

Gilbert/Northwestern (6-3)

Point potential: Max: 960-950
Opponent: Housatonic/Wamogo (4-5, 140 pts)
Bonus games 10: Windsor Locks/Suffield/East Granby (vs. Stafford/East Windsor)
The Skinny – Must beat Housatonic/Wamogo, hope Waterford or Stonington and then Bethel lose. It will outpoint Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech and likely Hillhouse if that happens.

Hillhouse (6-3) -

Point potential: Max: 950-930
Opponent: Wilbur Cross (1-8, 120 pts)
Bonus games 20 – Branford (vs. East Haven); Guilford (vs. Hand)
The skinny -- Already in huge trouble. Must beat Wilbur Cross, get either Waterford or Stonington to lose, then Bethel and Gilbert to lose. It would be in much better shape if Waterford and Stonington lost. Then it would just need Bethel OR Gilbert to lose. In either case, it still has to worry about Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech, too. If Putnam wins and Bullard-Havens beats Bassick, the two could be tied for one of the final spots. That is, assuming Branford helps Hillhouse’s cause by beating East Haven.

Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (6-3)

Point potential: Max 940-930
Opponent: vs Killingly (5-4, 150 pts)
Bonus games 10: Bullard-Havens (vs. Bassick)
The Skinny -- Same scenario as Hillhouse above, needs at least four teams ahead to lose to have a shot. In that case, it would have to outpoint the Academics (unless Wilbur Cross wins). A Bullard-Havens win over Bassick would get Putnam to 940. If none of Hillhouse’s bonuses come in (East Haven upsetting Branford, for example), then Putnam might be able to snatch the final spot away.

False Hope

Would basically need the entire field ahead of it to collapse.

Bullard-Havens (6-3)

His Madness returns!

Up next is a pretty stacked Class L field.

This playoff division is a bit more clear than its predecessor, with eight legitimate contenders vying for six spots. Two teams will be left out in the cold. And one of those teams has already been decided: The loser of the Turkey Bowl between Darien and New Canaan.

Don’t forget: Class L teams get 100 points for a league victory, and an extra 10 points for a victory over any Class LL school. Non-league victories over a Class M school is worth 90 points. Non-league victories over a Class S school is worth 80. The teams then earn 10 points for every win accumulated by a defeated opponent.

Top eight teams get in.

For the other three state playoff breakdowns, follow these links: CLASS LL | CLASS M | CLASS S

So, without further ado. The Class L playoff breakdown.

Clinched

Windsor (10-0, 1520)

Done with its regular season.

Still has 80 bonuses remaining, but nobody can catch their minimum point total of 1530. The Warriors have clinched the No. 1 seed.

Hand (9-0, 1280)

Opponent: Guilford (4-5, 140 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1490-1440; Min: 1350-1300
Bonus games 50: East Haven (vs. Branford); Amity (Vs. North Haven); Wilbur Cross (vs. Hillhouse); Cheshire (vs. Southington); Lyman Hall (vs. Sheehan).
The Skinny – Win practically assures Hand the No. 2 seed. An upset loss to Guilford and Hand could fall as far as No. 7.

Win and In

Coventry/Windham Tech (9-0, 1220)

Point potential: Max: 1450; Min: 1260
Opponent: vs. Ellington/Somers (9-1, 190)
The Skinny — All of its remaining points are guaranteed, so it is locked into either a 1450 total with a win, 1260 with a loss. A win over Ellington/Somers assures Coventry a home game. A loss, and there’s a slight chance of being knocked out of the playoffs altogether. Even if that happens, a loss by Notre Dame, North Haven or Farmington, or bonus points denied to those teams will clinch a spot for Coventry.

Masuk (9-0, 1200)

Point potential: Max: 1440-1430; Min: 1250-1240
Opponent: Newtown (8-1, 200 pts)
Bonus games 10: Stratford (vs. Bunnell)
The Skinny – Clinches with a victory over Newtown and gets a home game, at least as the No. 4 seed unless somebody ahead loses. A loss and Masuk would likely max out with 1240 points and would only clinch if North Haven, Farmington or North Haven lost. If that doesn’t happen, Masuk would be praying Farmington or NDWH are denied critical bonus points. In short, win or you’ll be sweating, Masuk.

New London (8-1, 1170)

Point potential: Max: 1420-1360; Min: 11240-1180
Opponent: NFA (7-2, 180 pts)
Bonus games 60: Montville (Vs. St. Bernard); Griswold (vs. Plainfield); East Lyme (vs. Waterford); Ledyard (vs. Fitch); Greenwich (vs. Staples); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM).
The Skinny — Clinches and gets in line for a home game with a victory over NFA. Odds are it will be the No. 5 seed if everybody wins out. The Whalers aren’t quite DOA with a loss, however, since they can still get as high at 1240 with its 60 bonuses which could be enough to qualify ahead of Notre Dame or Farmington. A loss by ND, Farmington or North Haven would clinch it for New London.

New Canaan (8-1, 1100)

Point potential: Max: 1330-1310; Min: 1130-1120
Opponent: vs. Darien (180 pts)
Bonus games 20: Warde (vs. Ludlowe); Bassick (vs. Bullard-Havens)
The Skinny – Clinches with a win over Darien in the Turkey Bowl and is likely the No. 6 seed. Finished with a loss.

A little help here?

There would be two spots remaining if all of the above teams win. Two of these teams will get in if enough goes their way. A loss by any of the above potentially opens the door for more.

Darien (8-1, 1040)

Point potential: Max: 1270-1250; Min: 1090-1070
Opponent: New Canaan (8-1, 180 points)
Bonus games 20: Bassick (vs. Bullard-Havens); Danbury (vs. Ridgefield)
The Skinny – A win knocks out New Canaan, but doesn’t quite guarantee a Darien clinch. They’ll likely finish at 1250 or 1260 and would be waiting to see if North Haven, Farmington or Notre Dame-WH can catch them. It’ll be close, but the odds are Darien will punch its ticket in that case. The Blue Wave will also clinch with a win and if North Haven, Farmington, Notre Dame or New London lose. Darien’s season is over with a loss.

Notre Dame-WH (7-2, 1080)

Point potential: Max: 1260-1210; Min: 1140-1090
Opponent: Hamden (1-8, 120 points)
Bonus games 50: Branford (vs. East Haven); North Haven (vs. Amity); Shelton (vs. Derby); Wilbur Cross (Vs. Hillhouse); Cheshire (vs. Southington).
The Skinny – Will clinch with win over Hamden coupled with a loss from New London, Farmington or North Haven. If none of those teams lose, then it’ll come down to bonus games with Farmington and North Haven. NDWH would then hope it can get as close to its maximum of 1260 as possible.  Most of its bonus teams are favored to win on Thanksgiving, so it’s a good possibility the Green Knights will outpoint Farmington. Getting three or more bonus wins might do the job.

North Haven (8-1, 1070)

Point potential: Max: 1280-1240; Min: 1130-1090
Opponent: Amity (4-5, 150 pts)
Bonus games 40: Hamden (vs. Notre Dame); Central (Vs. Harding); Hillhouse (Vs. Wilbur Cross); Foran (vs. Law)
The Skinny – The Indians would have the advantage over their competitors with a victory over Amity. They’d just need two or three of their bonus games to clinch. Four bonuses would clinch it outright (because NDWH would have lost in that case). They’d also clinch with a win coupled with losses by either New London, Notre Dame-WH Farmington, or maybe even Masuk.

Farmington (8-1, 1050)

Point potential: Max: 1270-1210
Opponent: Plainville (5-4, 150 pts)
Bonus games 60: E.O. Smith (vs. Tolland); Middletown (vs. Xavier); Maloney (vs. Platt); Bulkeley (vs. Commerce Springfield – Mass.); Fermi (vs. Bloomfield); Bacon Academy (vs. RHAM).
The Skinny – Must beat Plainville to get into position and has a 1270 max that would beat most contenders. However, some of Farmington’s bonus games are unlikely — Middletown over Xaver, Fermi over Bloomfield, for example. Should everybody else among the Class L contenders win, Farmington would need to get at least 40 of its 60 bonuses to have a prayer of catching ND or (less likely) North Haven.

False Hope

These teams basically would need to win and get the entire field ahead of them to collapse to have a shot.

Bunnell (7-2); Torrington (7-2); Middletown (6-3)

Grab the beakers! Fire up the Bunson burners! Connect the tubes! Charge the transformers!

YES! The Mad Playoff Scientist is back in the laboratory to concoct the latest and last CIAC state playoff scenarios.

With one week of football left and about half the playoff field already clinched, it’s become clearer to see what all our lucky contestants need to reach the promised land. His madness is back to break it all down into its component molecules.

As always, if there’s something our apprentices believe is amiss in our scenarios, His Madness will empty the beakers and try again.

His Madness also tried to reasonably estimate how many bonus games a team will get, rather than look strictly at numbers in an attempt to realistically predict what will happen.

Crazy, yea.

But he’s MAD, doncha know?

We’ll start with Class LL and work backward. For the other playoff breakdowns, follow these links:  CLASS L | CLASS M | CLASS S

DON’T FORGET: Class LL teams get 100 points for every league win; 90 points vs. a non-league Class L team, 80 for non-league Class M team and 70 points for a non-league Class S team. Then teams collect 10 points for every win by a defeated opponent. Add the total up and divide by the number of games played and you have your playoff point average.

A team’s “Max” is the most points it can reach with a victory. A team’s “Min” is the most points it can accumulate with a loss.

Top eight point averages reach the playoffs.

Here we go…

CLINCHED

Xavier (9-0, 1320 [132.0])

Opponent: vs. Middletown (6-3, 150 pts)
Point potential: Max 154.0-149.0; Min 139.0-134.0
Bonus games – 50: Amity (vs. North Haven); Shelton (vs. Derby); Hillhouse (Vs. Cross); Cheshire (vs. Southington); Foran (vs. Law)
The Skinny: Pretty simple. Has already clinched a home game. Win clinches the top seed.

Staples (8-0, 1080 [135.0])

Point potential: Max 147.78-141.11; Min 127.78-121.11
Opponent: vs. Greenwich (8-1, 180 pts)
Bonus games – 60: Central (vs. Harding); Warde (vs. Ludlowe); Danbury (Vs. Ridgefield); McMahon  (vs. Norwalk); Westhill (vs. Stamford); Darien (vs. New Canaan)
The skinny - Win clinches at least a No. 2 seed.

Hall (9-1, 1280 [128.00])

Point potential: Max: 134.00-130.0
Bonus games – 40: Newington (vs. Wethersfield); South Windsor (vs. Rockville); Middletown (Vs. Xavier); Southington (vs. Cheshire)
The Skinny - Done with the regular season, just waiting on bonuses. Has clinched a home game, possibly as No. 2 or 3 seed.

Newtown (8-1, 1130 [125.56])

Point potential: Max 1370-1350 (137.0-135.0); Min 1180-1160 (118.0-116.0)
Opponent: vs. Masuk (9-0, 190)
Bonus games 20 - Immaculate (vs. ND-Fairfield); New Milford (vs. New Fairfield)
The Skinny - Clinches a home game with a victory over Masuk. Can fall as far as No. 7 seed with a loss to the Panthers.

Conard (9-1, 1230 [123.0])

Point potential: Max: 1300-1250 (130.0-125.0); Min: 1250-1200 (125.0-120.0)
Bonus games 50: New Britain (vs. Berlin); Newington (vs. Wethersfield); South Windsor (vs. Rockville); Southington (vs. Cheshire); RHAM (vs. Bacon Academy)
The Skinny – Finished with the regular season. Can clinch a home game if Staples or Newtown lose.

Three Spots Remain…

Win and in for Greenwich and Norwalk, which leaves NFA and Ridgefield in line for the final spot with victories. Losses by NFA or Ridgefield opens the door further for Pomperaug, Shelton and Glastonbury. Losses by Greenwich and/or Norwalk will open two more spots.

Norwalk (7-1, 930 [116.25])

Point potential: Max: 1100-1080 (123.33-120.0); Min: 950-920 (105.56-102.22)
Opponent: McMahon (3-6, 130 pts)
Bonus games – 30: Harding (vs. Central); Ludlowe (vs. Warde); Trinity Catholic (Vs. Wilton)
The skinny – Clinches with a victory. Likely done with a loss unless most of the other contenders lose.

Greenwich (8-1, 1000 [111.11])

Opponent: vs Staples (8-0, 180 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1250-1190 (125.0-119.0) Min: 1010-950
Bonus games – 60: Trumbull (vs. St. Joseph); Central (Vs. Harding); Ludlowe (vs. Warde); Bassick (vs. Bullard-Havens); McMahon (vs. Norwalk); Westhill (vs. Stamford).
The Skinny — Clinches with a victory. Likely done with a loss unless most of the other contenders lose.

Shelton (7-2, 940 [104.44])

Opponent: vs. Derby (4-5, 110 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1120-1050 (112.0-105.0) Min: 1010-940
Bonus games 70: Fairfield Prep (vs. West Haven); Guilford (vs. Hand); Amity (vs. North Haven); Hamden (vs. NDWH); Cross (Vs. Hillhouse); Cheshire (vs. Southington); Sheehan (vs. Lyman Hall).
The Skinny – Already behind since it will only get 110 points from a win over Derby (as opposed to 140 since Derby is a non-league Class S school). So, Shelton needs most or all 70 bonuses to get into position. But considering the teams it needs to win for bonus points, getting more than half that total is unlikely for Shelton. Its best shot is if Norwalk, Greenwich, NFA and Ridgefield all lose. Then the Gaels would be in line with Pomperaug and Glastonbury to take one of the final three slots.

Pomperaug (7-2, 940 [104.44])

Opponent: vs. Oxford (3-6, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1120-1090 (112.0-109.0) Min: 990-960
Bonus Games 30: Newtown (Vs. Masuk); New Fairfield (vs. New Milford); Stratford (vs. Bunnell)
The Skinny – Needs a win over Oxford, and most of its bonus games to get into position, and that’s sketchy considering the teams they’re counting on to win. Losses by Norwalk, Greenwich would help greatly. Added losses by Ridgefield and NFA would be ideal.

Glastonbury (7-2, 930 [103.33])

Opponent: vs. Simsbury (3-6, 130 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1120-1070 (112.0-107.0)
Bonus games 50: New Britain (vs. Berlin); Newington (vs. Wethersfield); South Windsor (vs. Rockville); Maloney (vs. Platt); Southington (vs. Cheshire).
The Skinny – Must beat Simsbury and get most, if not all of its bonus games to get up to a Max of 112.0 to have a shot. Losses by Norwalk, Greenwich, Ridgefield and NFA would be a tremendous help.

Ridgefield (7-2, 930 [103.33])

Opponent: vs. Danbury (5-4, 150 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1130-1100 (113.0-111.0)
Bonus games 30: McMahon (vs. Norwalk); Stamford (vs. Westhill); Wilton (vs. Trinity Catholic)
The Skinny – Must beat Danbury. Stamford and Wilton victories will give Tigers at least an advantage over most contenders and they would only need a Norwalk loss to McMahon to clinch. Ridgefield will be sweating if either Stamford or Wilton lose since 112.0 is attainable by many contenders. If both Greenwich, Norwalk or others lose, however, the Tigers can start making playoff plans. If both Greenwich and Norwalk win, Ridgefield’s only true threat for the final spot is NFA.

Norwich Free Academy (7-2, 910 [101.11])

Opponent: New London (8-1, 180 pts)
Point potential: Max: 1150-1100 (115.0-111.0)
Bonus games 50: Montville (vs. St. Bernard/NT); Plainfield (Vs. Griswold); Cross (Vs. Hillhouse); East Lyme (vs. Waterford); Fitch (vs. Ledyard).
The Skinny — Must beat New London and get at least 30 bonus games to potentially tie or surpass Ridgefield for the final spot if both Greenwich and Norwalk win. A win and a Norwalk or Greenwich loss would clinch it. A loss and NFA is finished.

FALSE HOPE

Hartford Public (7-2); Stamford (6-2); West Haven (6-3); New Britain (6-3).

Ah, Connecticut high school football: Where even the tiniest, backwoods game has big meaning in the cosmic universe. The state playoff Thanksgiving Day scenario got a little clearer (or, muddier, depending on who you follow) Friday night.

The big upset was Stafford’s 22-21 victory over Gilbert/Northwestern. That, coupled with Windsor’s victory over Waterford, has boosted the playoff prospects of teams like Bethel and (yes) maybe even Hillhouse.

We’ll get to that in a second.

First: Here are the updated playoff standings and playoff potential worksheet (aka the HAL 9000).

Class LL:

Hall defeated Conard 20-0. Both teams have now clinched, but Hall has jumped ahead and clinched a home game.

That leaves seven teams for three spots: Norwalk (win and in), Greenwich (win and in, loss in trouble), Ridgefield (win and help), Shelton (win and help), Glastonbury (win and help), Pomperaug (win and help) and NFA (win and help).

Class L is a footrace.

Coventry/Windham Tech defeated Granby Memorial. They’ll clinch with a victory over 9-1 Ellington/Somers. A loss will lock C/WT into 1260 points, and they’ll be awaiting the results from Notre Dame, North Haven or Farmington.

The rest is as follows: Masuk (win in, loss in trouble); New London (win in, loss trouble); New Canaan (win and in, loss out); Darien (win and slight help; loss out).

North Haven, Notre Dame-WH and Farmington are essentially all in a race for two spots (unless maybe Coventry/Windham Tech loses, then they’d have a shot at outpointing C/WT with max bonus games).

It’s going to be real close. Right now, looking at the games, North Haven and Notre Dame have a slight edge. This class will get muddier should a lot of teams lose.

In Class M
Cheney Tech and Berlin clinched as expected, joining Ansonia, Ellington/Somers and Ledyard. There are three spots remaining.

Despite the loss to Windsor, Waterford can still clinch by beating East Lyme. Wolcott clinches by beating Holy Cross. Stonington can now clinch with a victory over Westerly (R.I.). None of these games are assured.

A loss by any of them (and more) will open the playoff door for Bethel, Hillhouse and even Gilbert/Northwestern (again) to capture the final spot with a victory.

Bethel has the most point potential of those three. It can get as high at 1030 with a win over Brookfield and its 50 bonuses, or as low as 980 if none of them come through (which is unlikely). A loss by Stonington or Waterford coupled with a Bethel victory would put the Wildcats back into the playoffs for the second time in three years.

Gilbert/Northwestern is in trouble, but has a better chance than Hillhouse. It can get as high as 980 with a win over Housatonic/Wamogo. It would just about clinch with a victory and two losses from Stonington, Waterford or Bethel.

Hillhouse can get as high as 950 with its 20 bonuses (it will likely finish with 940 with a victory over Wilbur Cross), so the Academics are not out of it, but they’re still in trouble. They’d need Stonington, Bethel and Gilbert/Northwestern to lose to have a good chance.

Another Waterford loss would limit its potential to between 960-900, so they have a slight chance of catching Gilbert for the final spot should Bethel and Stonginton lose.

A Wolcott loss to Holy Cross would hurt Wolcott, but it would likely clinch anyway with a point potential between 1020-990.

Class S
North Branford joined the field Friday night with a big win over Lewis Mills. It joins Capital Prep, Valley Regional, Northwest Catholic and Holy Cross in the Class S field.

Rocky Hill, Cromwell, and Haddam-Killingworth are all in with victories.

That would complete the field. Waiting in the wings are Bloomfield, Weston and Prince Tech. All three teams would need one of the three to lose to have a chance (Haddam-Killingworth losing would be ideal since Rocky Hill and Cromwell will both still be in line to clinch with losses.

If one spot remains, Prince Tech would be in the best shape since it can top out at 1,040-1,030. But they play Capital Prep, which is no picnic. Weston and Bloomfield can both top out at 1,020 points with victories. They need to win and get Prince Tech and Haddam-Killingworth (vs. 9-0 Valley Regional) to lose.

Weston, which plays Barlow, has 50 bonus games. Bloomfield, which plays winless Fermi, has 60 bonuses. So, if a spot comes down to Weston and Bloomfield, it’s going to be close.

A likely scenario where H-K and Prince Tech lose would open up two spots for both Bloomfield and Weston to slide in with victories.

Arkeel Newsome bulls through Holy Cross defenders on his way to an NVL MVP award. Ansonia captured the league title with a 33-0 win at Municipal Stadium Thursday night | Photo by Christian Abraham

From the outset, it appeared if every notion about Ansonia-Holy Cross II would come to fruition.

Holy Cross punt. Arkeel Newsome. One carry. One touchdown.

By the time the Holy Cross coaching staff had finished screamed “C’mon! That was too easy!” at their players, Newsome added another touchdown on the Chargers’ second possession.

The rout was on.

Or was it?

To their credit, the Crusaders didn’t throw up their hands. They didn’t lie down. They played with passion and pride befitting a team that’s already on its way to the state playoffs.

Though Ansonia never scored again in the first half, though Holy Cross buckled down, though people like me (48-7) started to squirm a bit for being so rash, the scoreboard was what everyone expected: Ansonia 33, Holy Cross 0.

Ok, so yeah it was in a way.

You could argue this was a much closer game than Week 4. Newsome busted loose for only one of his patented long touchdowns (as opposed to four the first time). The Cross defense never allowed another one. It was only a 14-0 game at halftime thanks to a goal line fumble by Newsome.

Then again, as Ansonia’s players have been quick to remind every one all season, it takes 11 guys to make a football team.

So, while Newsome only wowed the crowd on one long run, the rest of the Chargers made sure he didn’t need to go nuts. They kept Cross’ dangerous skill players out of the end zone while Newsome simply churned his way to a somewhat deceptive 286-yard, 5 TD, MVP performance.

Captains Jake LaRovera, Tyler Wood and Hakeem Martin hoist the NVL Championship trophy after Thursday

“We were never concerned,” standout linebacker Tyler Wood said. “We knew the defense would pick it up and the offense would do their part. The defense was pretty good tonight. We played hard. We had fun.”

Jh’mel Trammell was a brick wall. Jake LaRovera had a sack. Newsome intercepted a pass. Wood topped it off with fumble recovery and a sack. All and all, a good day on the football field.

“We just talked about staying patient,” Ansonia coach Tom Brockett said. “We were in control. You can’t blow everybody out early. Holy Cross is a tough team and is very capable of winning Class S.”

They are. But so is Ansonia in Class M. Perhaps more so. They’ll tune up for the playoffs against Naugatuck on Thanksgiving Day (a game that Brockett said Naugy has an edge, at least because it had the week off) and then they’ll go to work in capturing its first state title since Alex Thomas roamed the end zone.

(Incidentally, Thomas is about to play his last game at Yale this week in ‘The Game’. Where does the time go?)

Elsewhere on this light but busy Week 10…

The state playoffs added two more participants. Ledyard rallied to beat Branford 28-21 to punch its ticket in Class M. Northwest Catholic dominated Bristol Eastern to claim a spot in Class S.

In Class LL, Glastonbury won and Norwich Free Academy won to add their names to an already crowded list of contenders (alongside the likes of Ridgefield, Shelton, Greenwich, Norwalk and Pomperaug).

In Class L, crushing news for Bunnell. Though Middletown dominated the stat sheet, it failed in the turnover department, losing 18-12 to Farmington. New London took care of Griswold 15-0.

That all but eliminates the Bulldogs from playoff contention and makes it even more imperative for teams like Notre Dame-WH, North Haven, New Canaan, Darien and Masuk to win on Thanksgiving Day.

North Haven and Notre Dame might even have to turn an ear to Plainville on Thanksgiving Day. A Farmington win will edge it ever so closer to a playoff berth and — in the event Masuk and New London win — will have ND and North Haven praying for enough bonus points.

It’s going to be thisclose between Farmington and Notre Dame-WH if all holds to form. Both teams would love an NFA win over New London to help matters.

It also assures the loser of New Canaan-Darien a ticket home for the holidays. New Canaan will clinch with a win, but Darien (like ND and North Haven) needs to win and hope enough bonus games come through.

Still another slate of games today and tomorrow with playoff implications. Including Hall vs. Conard in the Class LL race. A Hall victory gets it in. A loss will drop it into the already crowded Class LL mix.

We’ll continue to break it all down for you as we go along.

Ansonia's defense wraps up Holy Cross quarterback Zach Brown in the Chargers 45-13 victory at Jarvis in Week 4.

Back in Week 4, a pair of unbeaten teams walked onto the Jarvis Stadium field anxious to make a point about their place in 2011 NVL season.

Holy Cross struck the first blow. Ansonia countered. Again and again and again. The Chargers won the battle emphatically, 45-13.

Six weeks later, we’re getting a do-over. Why? Wasn’t the first meeting proof enough no one was going to touch Ansonia in the NVL this season?

Well, Holy Cross went back to work after that disheartening loss. The Crusaders refocused. They rebounded. They smacked the rest of their opponents around, captured the NVL Copper Division trophy and earned a berth in the NVL championship game. So they get this chance at putting the breaks on the Ansonia gravy train.

So, ready or not, we’re taking the show to Municipal Stadium for Ansonia-Holy Cross II: The Reckoning

(For whom, I’ll let you decide).

NVL Championship

WHEN — Thursday, 6:30 p.m.
WHERE — Municipal Stadium, Waterbury
RECORDS — Holy Cross 8-1 (Copper Division champs, Ansonia 9-0 (Brass Division champs)
LAST MEETING — Ansonia 45, Holy Cross 13
PLAYERS TO WATCH — Holy Cross: Sr. RB/LB Dave DiGiorgi; Sr. QB Zach Brown; Sr. LB/OL Anthony Jemele; Sr. RB/LB Adrian Brown; Fresh. Isaiah Wright; Ansonia: Soph. RB/DB Arkeel Newsome; Sr. LB Tyler Wood; Sr. TE/DL Jake LaRovera; Jr. RB/DB Tyler Lester; Sr. OL/DL Tyler Williams (6-2, 260).
WHY ANSONIA WILL WIN – It has, by far, the biggest, baddest front seven in the league. Oh, and a kid named Newsome.
WHY HOLY CROSS WILL WIN – They won’t… unless Ansonia doesn’t get off the bus. (Zing!) In all seriousness, the Crusaders have dangerous athletes. Maybe if they can keep Newsome from any of his patented, back-breaking 70-yard touchdown runs? Maybe.
OUTLOOK — Holy Cross scored on its first drive when the teams met. After that, it was all Ansonia. Newsome countered with a 73-yard touchdown and, 311 more yards and four more touchdowns later, the Chargers served notice to the rest of the league they’d be near impossible to beat. Holy Cross has grown some since then, winning five straight, including overwhelming victories over Naugatuck and Woodland to clinch the Copper Division title and a Class S state playoff berth. They’re still nowhere near Ansonia’s level, however. The Chargers’ defense has plenty of weapons to hold Holy Cross’ skill players in check. And whenever the ball is in Newsome’s hands, Holy Cross’ chances decrease exponentially.
PREDICTION – Ansonia 48, Holy Cross 7

♦♦♦♦

This game doesn’t count for states. But it doesn’t matter. Both teams have already qualified in their respective classes, anyway.

Elsewhere, however, there are a bunch of statewide games Thursday that DO have state playoff implications.

The biggest games of the night include Farmington at Middletown (Farmington needs to win to keep pace in the tightening Class L race), New London at Griswold (Both teams need to win out. This is huge in Class L and Class S), Lewis Mills at North Branford (NB will clinch a spot in Class S with a victory), NFA vs. Wilbur Cross at East Haven (big for NFA’s chances in Class LL), Northwest Cathlolic at Bristol Eastern (NWC can clinch a Class S berth with a victory), Glastonbury at South Windsor (Glastonbury needs to win out to have a shot at qualifying in Class LL)

We’re running the live blog as usual, so expect to see updates mostly from the NVL title tilt, but also many of these bigger games. Keep a close eye on them, especially you Bethel, Bunnell and Weston.

Lots to do today. And, since there’s been no movement, lots of playoff talk in this week’s Elite 8.

We delve into state playoff scenarios for some of these teams. For the full breakdown, click here to head over to the Mad CIAC State Playoff Scientist’s laboratory, for the best, most comprehensive scenarios in the state .

We’ve combed through them thoroughly, and no one (save for the Lonesome Polecat with whom we check frequently) comes close.

Onto the Elite 8.

No one.

No one.

MASUK – Handled Weston as expected. Now the cards are all on Masuk’s table for Thanksgiving. Win and it gets an SWC championship trophy and a chance to defend its state championship. Lose and they’re in big, big trouble.

ANSONIA – They’re heavy favorites to win tonight, against Naugatuck on Thanksgiving and then the Class M title. No pressure, guys.

STAPLES – If you haven’t seen (and how could you not?), there was an off-week incident involving an assistant freshman coach, who allegedly gave out a password for a porn website to some of his players. That coach has been relieved. It’s undoubtedly been a distraction for a team trying to win a second FCIAC title in three years without two of their best players, Joey Zelkowitz and Kevin Kearney. Luckily, the Wreckers have already qualified for the Class LL playoffs. So the pressure’s off, somewhat.

Updated: Staples coach charged with giving freshman players porn access

GREENWICH – Wasn’t the greatest of offensive performances against Danbury. But the defense was outstanding. “We’re back as a program,” coach Rich Albonizio said after the 17-7 victory that turned this Thanksgiving Day game into the FCIAC championship. Greenwich, however, hasn’t participated in the state playoffs for almost four years. They need to win this game.

NOTRE DAME-WH – Took care of business quickly vs. Fairfield Prep. Now the Green Knights set their sights on the 61st Green Bowl and a well-deserved spot in the Class L playoffs.

NEWTOWN — Won an absolute classic vs. Bunnell. Their reward? a guaranteed Class LL playoff berth (when was the last time Newtown clinched before Thanksgiving? Anyone?) and a chance at the SWC title. They’ve got nothing to lose on Thanksgiving Eve vs. Masuk except a home playoff game (which might mean a date with Xavier. So scratch that sentiment). An upset win would knock Masuk out for the second time in three seasons.

DARIEN – Things were good when QB Henry Baldwin set a school passing touchdown record with 24 in a season with the Blue Wave’s win over Bassick. Then, while they were thinking about ways to beat New Canaan for the first time since 2011, came news of  coach Rob Trifone’s father’s death. No doubt there are heavy hearts in Darien and, maybe, some divine inspiration for the task ahead. The story is similar to last year: A win and they’re in the playoffs for the third time in four years while sending their arch rivals home. Unlike last year, a loss will probably end Darien’s season.

NEW CANAAN – QB Matt Milano made a triumphant return to the field as the Rams bounced struggling Trumbull. Once again, they’re in a winner-take all game against Darien in the Turkey Bowl. Win, they’re in. Lose, they’d be out of the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Batten down the hatches.

OTHERS

Norwalk (7-1) — Just one eentsy-weentsy-wittle victory over McMahon, and the Bears are dancin’ for the first time since 1998. … Bunnell (7-2) – The pain of their heartbreak from losing to Newtown figures to endure on Thanksgiving Day if things break the way they should in Class L. … Pomperaug (7-2) – If they beat Oxford, expect to see Pomperaug jackets in Westport or Norwalk Thanksgiving morning. A Greenwich or Norwalk loss will give these guys playoff hope. As would a Thanksgiving Eve loss by Ridgefield. … Shelton (7-2) — Any chance the Gaels can get Derby an emergency admittance back into the SCC? Those 30 lost playoff points for the Red Raiders’ recent move to the NVL are already costing them dearly. …Ridgefield (7-2) – I’d be pretty confident about the playoffs if I’m wearing Orange and Black. I’d be even more confident if my team beat Danbury and heard these words: “McMahon upsets Norwalk” or “Staples beats Greenwich.” …Stamford (6-2) – Had the Black Knights completed that comeback vs. Ridgefield, they”d be talking playoff possibilities right now. As it is, they’ll have to settle for their upset of New Canaan as the top 2011 memory. And that’s not bad.

Welcome… to the LA’bor-atory.

(THUNDERCRRRRRAACK!)

HAAAAA HAAA HAAA HAAA HAAAA HAAAAAA!!!!!

The Mad CIAC Playoff Scientist has awoken from his year-long slumber, almost a week earlier than normal. But hey, he’s anxious to get this playoff party started.

He’s warmed up to the arrival of the H.A.L (Levy) 9000 Super Playoff Computer. Now it’s just a matter of sifting through the formulas and hash out these scenarios.

And, once again, that gets a little tricky because of the hoards of infernal Pequot and CCC teams that have two games remaining.

Remember, we have four classes, top eight get in.

The Point System:

• Teams get a 100 points for a victory, and then 10 points for every opponents’ win. This last part is referred to as “bonus” points.

• Teams also get 10 points for beating a team in one higher class, 20 for two higher classes and 30 for three higher classes.

• Large teams aren’t penalized for beating smaller teams in their own league. But in non-league games, larger teams are penalized 10 points for defeating a team in one lower class, 20 for two lower classes and 30 for three lower classes.

• It’s added up and divided by the number of games played. That average is a team’s playoff point total.

If any of you apprentices out there notice anything amiss, His Madness would love to know.

These are broken down into four categories: ‘They’re In‘ (self-explanatory); ‘Just Win, Baby‘ (controls their own destiny); ‘A Little Help Here?‘ (needs to win out and get outside help) and ‘False Hope‘ (mathematically alive, realistically not).

Here are the complete playoff standings

Here we go…

Class LL

James Fruscaiante and the Wreckers have already qualified in Class LL.

THEY’RE IN

Xavier (9-0), Staples (8-0), Conard (9-0), Newtown (8-1)

JUST WIN, BABY

Hall (8-1, vs. Conard), Norwalk (7-1, vs. McMahon), Greenwich (8-1, vs. Staples).

Hall can still get in with a loss. Norwalk or Greenwich will be cooked worse than your aunt’s roast duck if they lose. They must win.

A LITTLE HELP HERE?

Ridgefield (7-2) – The Tigers are in the best shape at No. 8. They need to beat Danbury and hope for a few things to break their way, like Greenwich or Norwalk (or both) to lose and then outpointing some of the lower contenders. They’d love if McMahon upset Norwalk, that would help them max out at 113.0 point average. NFA losing to New London would help them immensely. Oh, and a loss and they’re done.

Shelton (7-2) — They’re killed by Derby’s residence in the NVL. The non-league game is worth 30 points less than it did a few years ago. The Gaels are also counting on 90 bonuses from the likes of Guilford (vs. Hand), Hamden (vs. ND) and Wilbur Cross (vs. Hillhouse). Good luck with that. They probably won’t get a max 113.0 average. It’ll be closer to 107.0, which Pomperaug, Glastonbury and NFA can all surpass. Getting Ridgefield and Norwalk to lose will brighten Shelton’s day. But they’ll be sweating like a turkey on Thanksgiving, regardless.

Pomperaug (7-2) – The Panthers need to beat Oxford and get a few others surrounding it to lose — especially Ridgefield and Glastonbury. Greenwich or Norwalk losses would help too. They can max at 113.0 average. But their 50 bonuses include Newtown (over Masuk), New Fairfield (over New Milford) and Stratford (over Bunnell). It’s tough, but not impossible, and certainly better than Shelton.

Glastonbury (6-2) — Have two winnable games left vs. South Windsor and Simsbury. Two wins would put the Tomahawks into a points race with Shelton, Ridgefield and/or Pomperaug. They can max out at 112.0 average, but are counting on 60 bonuses to get there. A Norwalk or Greenwich loss would help matters.

Norwich Free Academy (6-2) – The Wildcats must win out to get into position — and that includes beating New London. If NFA can somehow pull that off, they’d be in a points race for one of the final spots. Of course, like the others, the Wildcats will benefit greatly if many of them lose. They have 80 bonuses, many of which probably won’t come in. We’ll know more after this weekend.

FALSE HOPE

Stamford (6-2); Hartford Public (7-2); West Haven (6-3); New Britain (5-3); Southington (5-3).

CLASS L

Casey Cochran and Masuk need a victory over Newtown to qualify in Class L.

THEY’RE IN

Windsor (9-0), Hand (9-0)

JUST WIN, BABY

Coventry/Windham Tech (8-0, vs. Granby Memorial, Ellington/Somers), Masuk (9-0, vs. Newtown), New London (7-1, vs. Griswold, NFA), New Canaan (8-1, vs. Darien).

Masuk and New London would both be in trouble with a loss. New Canaan would be out with a loss. Coventry/Windham Tech will almost assuredly be in with a win over Ellington/Somers.

A LITTLE HELP HERE?

Darien (8-1) — The Blue Wave aren’t quite guaranteed a berth even if they defeat New Canaan. They’ll be very close, however. A North Haven, Notre Dame or Farmington loss will do the trick. They’re done with a loss.

Notre Dame-WH (7-2) — Just a little. A win over Hamden gets the Green Knights on the cusp of a playoff berth. A Farmington loss would make it a clinch. They should have confidence in those 70 bonus games, too. Done with a loss.

North Haven (8-1) — Needs to beat Amity. After that, its only real worry is if Farmington wins out and collects enough bonuses, which is unlikely.

Farmington (7-1) — Must beat good Middletown team and then Plainville to get into position. It’s counting on a horde of bonus help (100 points as of right now) though. Not enough will come through to catch North Haven in that case. Their best hope is for ND or North Haven to lose to clinch with a win.

NEW: Bunnell (7-2) — We misspoke on Bunnell. The Dawgs still cling to an outside shot if they beat Stratford. They can get into the field if Middletown beats Farmington and if Amity upsets North Haven. It would then have a chance to outpoint both teams and the New Canaan-Darien loser if enough of its 50 bonus points come through. They can get anywhere between 1170-1120.  Notre Dame losing to Hamden won’t hurt, either. Of course if Middletown also beats Xavier, they’d be finished.

Middletown (6-2) – How about this road? Beat 7-1 Farmington. Then topple top-ranked and unbeaten Xavier, then hope for the bonuses to outpoint ND or North Haven. Beating That middle part is like the Great Wall of China.

FALSE HOPE

Bunnell (7-2), Torrington (7-2) – Would need for most of those teams to lose and max out on bonuses.

CLASS M

Brandon Schmidt and Bethel need lots of help in the Class M playoff race.

Updated – Wednesday 11/16
THEY’RE IN

Ansonia (9-0), Ellington/Somers (8-0)

JUST WIN, BABY

Ledyard (7-1, vs. Branford, Fitch), Cheney Tech (8-1, vs. East Catholic), Berlin (8-1, vs. New Britain), Waterford (6-2, vs. Windsor, East Lyme), Wolcott (7-2, vs. Holy Cross).

Berlin and Ledyard would still be in good shape with at least one loss. Waterford and Cheney Tech can both clinch even with a loss if Stonington loses to Westerly (R.I.). Wolcott is done if it loses to Holy Cross, Gilbert/Northwestern wins out and Stonington beats Westerly.

A LITTLE HELP HERE?

Gilbert/Northwestern (6-2) — Have winnable games vs. Stafford/East Windsor and Housatonic/Wamogo remaining. That’ll get Gilbert/NW to 1090 points with 20 bonuses remaining. That’s close to clinching the final spot. They’d love if Wolcott loses to Holy Cross. That would grease their playoff wheels. If Stonington beats Westerly, it’s a footrace for bonus points.

Stonington (5-3) — Beat Foran on Wednesday, so all it needs now is a win over Westerly (R.I.) to get into position for the final playoff spot. They’d be counting on a lot of bonuses, and they’d have a tough time outpointing Waterford since they share many of the same bonus games. Their best bet is for Gilbert or Wolcott to lose.

Bethel (6-3) — The Wildcats need serious help, especially since they probably won’t get half of their 50 bonus games. Realistically, the Wildcats need to beat Brookfield then get Stonington to lose once and Waterford to lose twice. There’s a slight chance they could outpoint Wolcott if Wolcott loses to Holy Cross, but unlikely. A Gilbert/Northwestern loss is also desirable. Overall, they’ll need at least two teams ahead to lose to have any chance. It’s not impossible, but I’d be concerned.

FALSE HOPE

Hillhouse (6-3), Putnam/Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech (6-3), Bullard-Havens (6-3), Montville (5-4), Tolland (6-3) — Too many unlikely variables for Hillhouse for us to give them a legit shot. Let’s just say the Acs need a miracle.

CLASS S

Tyler Hassett and Weston need to win and get help in the Class S playoff race.

THEY’RE IN

Capital Prep/Classical Magnet (9-0); Valley Regional (9-0); Holy Cross (8-1).

JUST WIN, BABY

North Branford (7-1, vs. Lewis Mills, Hyde. One win gets them in); Northwest Catholic (7-1; vs. Bristol Eastern, Rocky Hill). One win gets them in, still alive with two losses); Cromwell (7-2, vs. Coginchaug, still alive with a loss); Rocky Hill (7-2, vs. Bristol Central and Northwest Catholic); Haddam-Killingworth (6-2, vs. Old Saybrook/Westbrook, Valley Regional/Old Lyme).

A LITTLE HELP HERE?

If all of those teams win, the field will be complete and contenders flapping in the wind. Even Rocky Hill would have an decided edge over all of them with just one more loss. So the only realistic shot any of the remaining teams have is if HK loses to Valley or if Rocky Hill loses twice.

Griswold (5-3) – Its only chance to qualify is to win out and get one of the teams above it to lose, specifically Rocky Hill to Northwest Catholic or HK to Valley Regional. Alas, New London sits there like a brick wall and loss would doom them.

Prince Tech (6-3) — Can clinch one of the last two remaining spots by beating Capital Prep/Classical, and then get HK to lose. That would put Prince at at least 1030 which would be the magic number to outpoint the others. Beating Capital Prep/Classical is easier said than done.

Weston (6-3) — The Trojans must beat Barlow and hope a bunch of teams lose to move into position for the final spot. Valley Regional must take care of HK, Cromwell must take care of Coginchaug, Capital Prep must take care of Prince Tech, New London must take care of Griswold. But — get this — all of those scenarios are likely. They realistically won’t catch Rocky Hill, so their only real issue will be with Bloomfield and one-loss HK. Weston can max out at 1030 points, but will likely get somewhere along the lines of 990 or 1000.

Bloomfield (5-3) — Same issue as Weston. Bloomfield must win out (against winless Weaver and Fermi), hope all of those same teams lose and wait for enough bonuses to clinch over Weston and HK. A Weston loss to Barlow would be nice, too. The Warhawks can top out at 1030, and they’ll get many of their 80 available bonus points.

Coginchaug (5-3) — Finishes with Morgan and Cromwell and can top out at 1000 points. They’ll need to win both games, get the same Weston and Bloomfield teams to lose, plus hope enough bonuses come in to top Weston and Bloomfield and a three-loss HK in a points race.

It’s going to be tight.

FALSE HOPE

Seymour (5-4), Killingly (5-4), Woodland (5-4), Plainville (4-4), Old Saybrook/Westbrook (4-4), Housatonic/Wamogo (4-4).