Posted by the National Weather Service at 1:19 p.m.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
119 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
SYNOPSIS…
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/…
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE EARL REMAINS UNCHANGED. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST…BRINGING THE
CENTER ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF MONTAUK POINT…OR ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF NEW YORK CITY LATER TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME…ALL OF THE CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE BASED ON PREDEFINED GEOGRAPHICAL PORTIONS OF THE
COASTLINE…AND NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST HAVE A LOWER
PROBABILITY OF SEEING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND…MUCH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS…AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.
LARGE BATTERING WAVES WILL BEING TO IMPACT THE SHORES OF LONG
ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. SURF BREAKING 12 TO 16 FT IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
BASED ON THE TRACK AND EXPECTED ACCELERATION OF EARL AS IT TURNS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST…THERE WILL BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD..
SEAS BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT BY THIS EVENING…AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 6
TO 12 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING AS EARL DEPARTS. THE HIGHEST SEAS
WILL BE OVER EASTERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS ON FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT AS WELL
TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MOST LIKELY ON EASTERN LI
SOUND…EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS…AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY EAST OF THOSE LOCATIONS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MON TO BELOW SCA LEVELS…WITH THESE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY…
RAINFALL FROM EARL WILL RANGE FROM AT MOST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER
ORANGE COUNTY TO OVER TWO INCHES OVER EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
NEW LONDON COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
UNDER THE STRONGEST BANDS FROM EARL…WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING…
FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT EARL WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING…WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE HIGH TIDE LATE FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND QUEENS.
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY…LOW WATER ABOUT 1 TO 1 AND A HALF FEET
BELOW NORMAL IS POSSIBLE. A SECONDARY SURGE MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AS
WATER RETURNS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF EARL.
EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND…MUCH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS…AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.
