Jonathan Kantrowitz

America is currently in the throes of a persistent high school dropout crisis that has been a long time in the making, with substantial disparities in dropout rates across race, ethnic, and income groups and geographic areas. The absence of new funding at the federal and state level since the 1980s has led to decades of disinvestment in re-enrollment programs across the country. In the current global economy, having at least a high school diploma is a critical step for avoiding poverty, and a college degree is a prerequisite for a well-paying job. The costs of dropping out of high school today are substantial and have risen over time, especially for young men, who find it almost impossible to earn an adequate income to take care of themselves and their families.

The Obama Administration’s national education agenda expresses clear support for addressing the dropout crisis through preventive measures implemented during the middle-school years and reforming the No Child Left Behind law. The selection of former Chicago Public Schools CEO Arne Duncan as National Education Secretary sets the stage for an exploration of strategies to re-engage students who have already dropped out of high school. Because of the widespread, pressing nature of the crisis and the large numbers of young people who have already dropped out, a national re-enrollment strategy should be a fundamental part of America’s national education agenda.

In order to lay the groundwork for an informed discussion of solutions, the Center for Labor Market Studies (CLMS) in cooperation with the Chicago Alternative Schools Network analyzed a variety of data from 2007.

A BLEAK NATIONAL PICTURE: NEARLY 6.2 MILLION DROPOUTS

The dropout crisis impacts all of America, but affects men, Blacks, and Hispanics particularly hard. In 2007, an astounding 16.0% of persons between 16 and 24 years of age (nearly 6.2 million people) were high school dropouts. Among these dropouts, 60.1% were men, 18.8% were Black, and 30.1% were Hispanic. In addition:

• Nearly one in five U.S. men between the ages of 16-24 (18.9%) were dropouts in 2007.

• Nearly three out of 10 Hispanics were dropouts (27.5%).

• More than one of five Blacks had dropped out of school (21%)–versus a dropout rate for Whites of 12.2%.

LIFELONG ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM DROPPING OUT

Americans without a high school diploma have considerably lower earning power and job opportunities in today’s workforce. Over a working lifetime from ages 18-64, high school dropouts are estimated to earn $400,000 less than those that graduated from high school. For males, the lifetime earnings loss is nearly $485,000 and exceeds $500,000 in many large states. Due to their lower lifetime earnings and other sources of market incomes, dropouts will contribute far less in federal, state, and local taxes than they will receive in cash benefits, in-kind transfers, and correctional costs. Over their lifetimes, this will impose a net fiscal burden on the rest of society.

By contrast, adults with high school diplomas contribute major fiscal benefits to the country over their lifetime. The combined lifetime fiscal benefits––including the payment of payroll, federal, and state income taxes––could amount to more than $250,000 per graduated student. Such a public fiscal benefit more than outweighs the estimated cost of enrolling a student who has dropped out.

WHAT’S NEEDED: A FEDERAL AND STATE RE-ENROLLMENT PROGRAM

It is our responsibility as a society to explore every potential means to do so. If we do nothing, the cost of inaction will be steep–not just for the nearly 6.2 million high school dropouts, many of whom will remain jobless and with low incomes, but for the economic and social wellbeing of our nation as a whole, for years to come.

A range of effective re-enrollment programs have emerged in recent years both nationally and in number of cities including Chicago, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, and Portland (Oregon). These programs have found that young people who have left high school before earning a diploma are not dead-end dropouts, but often are in fact students waiting and looking for opportunities to reenroll and finish high school. The most successful programs are small (80-150 students), offering comprehensive after-school and summer activities, led by experienced principals and teachers, focused on learning in the real world, well funded with local school site program and fiscal control, and track specific, measurable outcomes for student achievement including skill gains, enrollment, attendance, credit gains, promotions, and graduations. These programs should be used as models for additional local and national efforts.