Jonathan Kantrowitz

A pretty picture:

The number of jobs in the United States has declined almost every month since December 2007. Although nearly all professional forecasters believe that the economy has begun to recover from the recent recession, many also predict that the pace of the recovery will be slow and that unemployment will remain high for several years. Concerns that the economic recovery will be protracted have prompted the consideration of further fiscal policy actions beyond those actions taken over the last year. In response to a request from the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, CBO released a report today that examines the potential role and efficacy of fiscal policy options for increasing economic growth and employment, particularly over the next two years.

CBO concludes that further policy action, if properly designed, would promote economic growth and increase employment in 2010 and 2011. Different policies vary in cost-effectiveness as measured by the cumulative effects on GDP and employment per dollar of budgetary cost and in the time patterns of those effects. Moreover, despite the potential economic benefits in the short run, such actions would add to already large projected budget deficits. Unless offsetting actions were taken to reverse the accumulation of additional government debt, future incomes would tend to be lower than they otherwise would have been.

In a previous report and testimony, CBO identified three key criteria for judging policy options for spurring economic growth and increasing employment:

* Timing—providing help when it is needed most;
* Cost-effectiveness—providing the most growth and employment per dollar cost to the federal budget; and
* Consistency with long-term fiscal objectives—preventing the short-term deficit increase due to stimulative policy from adding excessively to federal debt in the long run.

Other considerations affecting the design of policy options include uncertainty about a policy’s effectiveness, the distribution of benefits among different people, and the value of additional goods and services that would be produced.

CBO examined the effects on output and on employment of a number of policies. The effect of a policy on employment is measured by the cumulative effect on years of full-time-equivalent employment for each dollar of total budgetary cost (a year of full-time-equivalent employment is 40 hours of employment per week for one year). By focusing on full-time equivalents, the calculations include increases in hours among people in part-time employment and possibly some overtime for full-time employees.

To account for uncertainty, the analysis includes both a “low” estimate and a “high” estimate for the effect of each policy. For the range of policy options considered, the figure below shows the range of low to high estimates of the cumulative effects on employment in 2010 and 2011, when CBO expects that the economy will still be in the early stages of the recovery.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued the following statement on a news report showing that the nation’s largest insurance companies funneled between $10 million and $20 million through the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to fund deceptive television ads opposing health insurance reform. The article by National Journal also reveals that the effort was well underway even as the insurance companies were publicly claiming to support health reform:

“These big insurance companies appear to have gotten caught secretly bankrolling the effort to kill health insurance reform for millions of Americans, despite their disingenuous claims of support for the legislation. This duplicity is not surprising coming from an industry that has used every method to try to kill health insurance reform that would save lives, save money, save jobs, and save Medicare.

“The insurance industry has spent millions of dollars on the wrong side of history — standing in the way of progress for our workers, families, and businesses, by secretly funding a campaign to maintain a health insurance system of high costs, limited access, and arbitrary cut-offs for American consumers.

“Congress is working with President Obama and thousands of health, consumer, and labor organizations across the nation to finalize health insurance reform that ensures affordability for the middle class, accountability for the insurance industry, and access for millions more Americans. But Americans should judge these deceptive ads for what they are — now that they know who has been paying the tab.”

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. fought for civil rights, including the right to health care. Come celebrate Dr. King’s legacy and remind our leaders that the dream includes providing quality, affordable health care for all. CCAG and Health Care for America Now (HCAN) invite you join and participate in Stamford’s Annual Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. March and Celebration — “The Dream in Our Time” on Monday, January 18.

Gather at Bethel AME Church, 150 Fairfield Avenue in Stamford for a 10:30 AM rally. At 11:00 AM, participants will march from Bethel AME Church to the Yerwood Center, 90 Fairfield Avenue in Stamford. The march route is approximately one mile; the distance between Bethel AME Church and the Yerwood Center is approximately 1/10 of a mile. Those who cannot march the entire route should walk or drive from Bethel AME to the Yerwood Center. People who need transportation from the Stamford Metro North station to Bethel AME or from Bethel AME to the Yerwood Center MUST MAKE ARRANGEMENTS IN ADVANCE by contacting Alexandra Ferreira alexandra@ccag.net or (203) 499-9924.

There will be a short program at the Yerwood Center where Congressman Jim Himes is expected to speak.

Event Details

Date: Monday, January 18
Time: 10:30 AM Rally at Bethel AME | 11:00 AM March to Yerwood Center
Place: Bethel AME Church, 150 Fairfield Ave., Stamford, CT [map] | Yerwood Center, 90 Fairfield Ave., Stamford, CT [map]
For more information, contact CCAG Political Director John Murphy at murphy@ccag.net or (860) 995-3389.

Will Gregory, the all but forgotten candidate for the 4th District Republican nomination to run against Jim Himes, has released a proposal for reforming Congressional compensation. This proposal limits Congressional pay raises and benefits. Gregory takes both Republicans and Democrats to task for supporting special privileges for Congress.

“Only in Congress would significant budget shortfalls and reckless spending be rewarded with a raise,” says Gregory. Congressional pay raises will no longer be discretionary — they will be limited to the lesser of 2 percent or the rate of inflation.
Furthermore, Mr. Gregory proposes eliminating the special Congressional retirement plan, and he insists that members of Congress participate in the same healthcare and social security programs of their constituents. Congress should play by the same rules as the American people. Americans have to plan carefully and save for retirement, so too should members of Congress.

“If they have to reap what they sow, maybe they’ll be less inclined to push more and more unnecessary bureaucracy on American taxpayers,” says Gregory. “By making members of Congress deal with the same red tape for health care and social security, they will see firsthand that massive government regulation has created few common-sense solutions for middle-class families.”

While this measure is an important first step, Mr. Gregory knows that further action is necessary. “It will take even more bold reforms before we finally can say that government works for the people. That’s why I’m running for congress – we need a voice for these reforms that isn’t beholden to beltway brokers.”

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has 35 to 47-point leads over three Republican candidates for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest, thumping former wrestling executive Linda McMahon 64 – 23 percent, bruising businessman Peter Schiff 66 – 19 percent and smacking former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons 62 – 27 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Simmons tops McMahon 37 – 27 percent in a Republican primary, with 4 percent for Schiff and 28 percent undecided.

Blumenthal, who only announced his candidacy January 6, leads Merrick Alpert in a Democratic primary 82 – 4 percent.
In matchups with Republicans, Blumenthal gets 89 to 90 percent of the Democratic voters, 60 to 64 percent of the independent voters and 30 to 38 percent of Republican voters.

Connecticut voters approve 84 – 11 percent of the job Blumenthal is doing as attorney general and give him a 74 – 13 percent favorability rating.

“Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s job approval is unbelievably high, higher than any other politician we’ve ever measured, other than former President George W. Bush after 9/11,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

Connecticut voters say 82 – 11 percent that Blumenthal has the right kind of experience to be a U.S. Senator; 81 – 9 percent that he is honest and trustworthy and 80 – 12 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

McMahon does not have the right experience to be a Senator, voters say 43 – 24 percent, but she is honest and trustworthy, voters say 35 – 15 percent, and she cares about their needs and problems, voters say 37 – 26 percent.

Simmons has the experience, voters say 53 – 16 percent; is honest and trustworthy, voters say 49 – 14 percent, and cares about their needs and problems, voters say 51 – 19 percent.

From January 8 – 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,430 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 542 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and 378 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Woody Allen once said 90% of life is just showing up. Linda M. seems to be basing her campaign on that – and she does get a lot of credit just for showing up:

The “2009 U.S. Chamber Credibility Scorecard” released by Change to Win today shows the extent to which the U.S. Chamber has seen its standing fall. In the past year alone, the U.S. Chamber has seen its extreme positions split the organization and lead to high-profile defections and criticism from members both over the group’s issue positions and the policies. CEOs and corporations close to Donohue and the Chamber have been ensnared in legal scandals involving insider trading and accounting fraud. Meanwhile, the Chamber was put on the defensive over revelations that it had inflated its membership numbers and that a nearly a third of its 2008 revenue came from just 19 donors rather than the millions of businesses it claims to represent.

“The U.S. Chamber enters 2010 badly damaged and in no position to lecture,” said Change to Win spokesperson Mike Gehrke. “2009 was a disaster for the U.S. Chamber, which is to be expected when you bank your credibility on the extreme agenda of a few corporate CEOs. In 2010, the Chamber can resolve to work for change and reform, or to spend another year obstructing, blocking and misleading.”

Among the lowlights of the past year in the CtW report include:

Member Businesses Quit the Chamber and Distanced Themselves Over Policy and Process.

The U.S. Chamber was rattled by high-profile defections of businesses including Apple, Exelon, PNM Resources, PG&E, PSEG and Mohawk Paper. Nike publicly quit the U.S. Chamber’s Board of Directors, several local Chambers of Commerce publicly distanced themselves from the DC-based U.S. Chamber, and companies like General Electric and Comcast publicly dissented from the U.S. Chamber’s position on issues. The splits often went beyond policy differences, with board members publicly complaining that they were not included in the body’s policymaking or, as the CEO of the New York Chamber bluntly stated, “They don’t represent me.”

Reports Revealed Small Base of Chamber Funding.

In November, Greenwire reported that “The U.S. Chamber of Commerce often says it speaks for 3 million members, businesses both large and small. What it doesn’t promote as readily is that 19 supporters last year provided a third of the trade group’s total revenue.” One contributor gave the Chamber $15.3 million in 2008. The Chamber has not disclosed any of the contributors’ names. [NY Times.com Greenwire, 11/23/2009]

Chamber criticized for running millions in misleading and outright false ads.

In November, FactCheck.org exposed the Chamber’s misleading health care ads which claimed health care reform would cause massive job loss and lead to “crushing” tax increases. [FactCheck.org, 11/17/2009] And FactCheck.org recently called Chamber ads run in December that claimed “52 percent of all lawsuits” target small businesses were “false” and “malarkey.” [FactCheck.org, 1/7/2010]