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Among likely Republican primary voters, former ambassador Tom Foley leads with 48 percent, followed by Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele with 13 percent and businessman Oz Griebel with 7 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Another 32 percent are undecided. This is the first survey of likely primary voters and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

A total of 41 percent of Connecticut likely Republican primary voters have heard “a lot” or “some” about Foley’s two past arrests, while 58 percent have heard “not much” or “nothing at all.” Only 30 percent of these primary voters say the arrest controversy makes them less likely to vote for Foley, as 55 percent say it doesn’t make a difference. Foley’s past arrests are a private matter, 48 percent say, while 28 percent say they are a legitimate issue.

By a 45 – 9 percent margin, Connecticut Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Foley, with 42 percent who haven’t heard enough to form an opinion. For Fedele, 73 percent haven’t heard enough. For Griebel, 81 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.
Among those Republican likely primary voters who select a candidate, 73 percent say they might change their mind before the August 10 primary.

“One month before the primary, Foley has a huge lead over Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele and Oz Griebel. The governor’s race is overshadowed by the Senate battle between Linda McMahon and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and the controversy over Foley’s arrests is not having much impact,” Dr. Schwartz said. “So Foley has been unharmed and voters still don’t know much about Fedele or Griebel.