Things are bad:
From Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C.:
,,,The unemployment rate for the year is likely to average above 9.0 percent. The number of people who are involuntarily underemployed has generally been 8.5 and 9.0 million, close to double the pre-recession level. Millions more have given up looking for work altogether. Real wages have been stagnant or falling for the last 4 years, with little prospect of turning around any time soon as the high rate of unemployment continues to depress wages.
In addition, tens of millions of baby boomers are approaching retirement with almost nothing to support themselves other than their Social Security…
In short, most of the country is looking at a situation where they are desperate for work or fearful about losing their job. Older workers are looking at a retirement where they are not far above the poverty level, even after spending a life working in middle class jobs…
Will it get better? David Wessel, The Wall Street Journal’s economics editor, sees reasons for optimism, but just as many for pessimism:
The latest incoming data are encouraging. Initial claims for unemployment compensation, one of the better early-warning signs, have fallen to their lowest level in 3½ years. Consumers say jobs are a little easier to find, another useful indicator. Housing starts and home sales are up. Inventories are lean. And, for what it’s worth, the stock market has bounced back in the past month.
This could be the start of the much-hoped-for virtuous circle. The job market improves. Consumers have more income. Spirits and, more important, spending perk up. Meanwhile, weakening economies abroad keep commodity prices down and limit inflation in the U.S. With mortgage rates low and consumer finances improving, home prices turn up at last. Businesses, flush with cash, expand and hire more readily, offsetting the retrenchment by governments…
What could go wrong?
..The games of chicken between Germany and southern Europe and between political leaders and the European Central Bank aren’t resolved. Europe is almost surely in recession. When the best hope is that European governments will “muddle through” without any more big mistakes, well, the risks of something going wrong are uncomfortably high. And if it does, financial markets will transmit the pain promptly to the rest of the world.
Washington hardly offers an inspiring example of democracy at work. The battle over renewing a payroll-tax holiday and extended unemployment benefits wasn’t settled—it was recessed for a couple of months. That means another contentious fight—and more uncertainty—early next year, and an even bigger fight later when the Bush tax cuts expire, the debt ceiling needs to be raised again and across-the-board budget cuts are imminent…
And then there is the housing market. We’re told housing prices are “stabilizing,” and maybe they are. But we learned this week that they fell in October in 19 of the 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller index. Over the past year, its 20-city index fell 3.4%, on top of the 30% decline in the preceding four years. Wary home buyers, a still-dysfunctional mortgage market and an overhang of foreclosed homes continue to weigh on housing. If prices take another turn down, that could disrupt any virtuous circle.
ThinkProgress offers more details on How The Housing Crisis Could Kill Any Progress On Jobs:
…According to work by Prof. Joseph Gyourko of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, homeowners who are underwater — meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth — are 30 percent less likely to move than non-underwater borrowers. So the housing crisis is locking people in place, even if moving could help them find a job and increased mobility could alleviate the unemployment crisis.
Borrowers being stuck underwater is bad enough, but adding to the bad news is the fact that, after slowing down their foreclosure processes to deal with the fallout from the foreclosure fraud scandal, banks have picked it back up, with foreclosure jumping 21 percent last quarter. And there’s little reason to believe things are going to get much better in 2012, as scheduled foreclosure hit a nine-month high in November, meaning a slew of foreclosure is right around the corner. Continued foreclosures will drag home prices down even further, sinking those already underwater down even deeper, in a vicious cycle that will weigh down the wider economy.




