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Rudy Giuliani Only One of 11 Possible Republican Candidates Who Could Beat President Obama

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This is very good news coming from The Harris Poll, especially since RG hasn’t a prayer of getting the Republican nomination.

Among all adults, assuming these candidates were in the Republican primary election, 10% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Donald Trump, while just under that would vote for Mike Huckabee (8%), Rudy Giuliani (8%) and Sarah Palin (7%). Five percent or less would vote for Newt Gingrich (5%), Tim Pawlenty (2%), Michele Bachmann (2%), Mitch Daniels (2%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Haley Barbour (less than 1%). Almost half of all Americans (45%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,379 adults surveyed online between March 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Looking at just Republicans, the order is a little different and there is also a little less uncertainty. Mike Huckabee is on top of the Republicans’ list at 15% followed by Mitt Romney at 13% and Sarah Palin at 12%. Just under one in ten Republicans would vote for Newt Gingrich (9%), followed by Donald Trump (8%), and Rudy Giuliani (7%). Rounding out the list 3% of Republicans would each vote for Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum and Mitch Daniels and less than 1% for Haley Barbour; one-quarter of Republicans (26%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

Among Independents, the list changes again as Donald Trump moves to the top of who Independents would vote for in a Republican primary (13%) followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Rudy Giuliani (9%) and Mike Huckabee (8%). Two in five Independents (41%) are not at all sure.

Republican candidates versus President Obama

Taking the same list of 11 potential Republican nominees and pitting them against President Obama shows some interesting results. While he only garners 8% of overall adults and just 7% of Republicans in the primary field, Rudy Giuliani is the only candidate on the list who edges out President Obama in a head to head match-up, 51% to 49%. The next two Republicans make it a close race but President Obama edges out Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) and Mike Huckabee (52% to 48%).

Among the next tier of candidates, it’s anywhere from a 10 point margin (Trump 45%/Obama 55%) to 12 point margin (Gingrich, Daniels and Pawlenty 44% versus Obama 56%) to a 14 point margin (Santorum 43%/Obama 57%). The third tier of candidates would be a relief for the current White House as President Obama is ahead by 16 points on Sarah Palin (58% vs. 42%) and 18 points ahead of Haley Barbour and Michele Bachmann (59% vs. 41%).

So What?

Ten months is a lifetime in politics and that’s how long it is until the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses. At this point, the list of potential Republicans will change as the time gets closer and the choruses of “will he/she run” will continue through the summer. But, one thing for all candidates to keep in mind is that when adults who would vote for at least one Republican were asked how concerned they are about the positions and policies of the potential Republican candidates, more than two-thirds (69%) said they are concerned and that number is the same among just Republicans. Among Independents who would vote for at least one Republican, three-quarters are concerned (76%). Republican candidates need to keep in mind that how they act during the primaries is being watched by these Independent voters — a bloc they need if they want to win in November 2012.

TABLE 1

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION

“If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Total

Party ID

Philosophy

Mod.
Ind.

Tea
Party
Support

Rep.

Dem.

Ind.

Cons.

Mod.

Lib.

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mitt Romney

10

13

9

11

10

11

8

14

13

Donald Trump

10

8

10

13

9

11

9

14

10

Mike Huckabee

8

15

5

8

15

6

4

5

15

Rudy Giuliani

8

7

9

9

7

8

12

9

7

Sarah Palin

7

12

4

5

12

5

4

2

12

Newt Gingrich

5

9

1

5

10

3

2

3

10

Tim Pawlenty

2

3

2

2

2

3

1

4

3

Michele Bachmann

2

3

2

2

3

2

2

2

3

Mitch Daniels

2

2

1

3

3

1

2

2

2

Rick Santorum

1

2

*

*

*

1

-

*

1

Haley Barbour

*

*

*

1

1

*

*

*

1

Not at all sure

45

26

58

41

29

51

55

44

22

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%

TABLE 2A

2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA

“Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against
President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Would vote for

President Obama

The Republican nominee

%

%

Michele Bachmann

59

41

Haley Barbour

59

41

Sarah Palin

58

42

Rick Santorum

57

43

Tim Pawlenty

56

44

Mitch Daniels

56

44

Newt Gingrich

56

44

Donald Trump

55

45

Mike Huckabee

52

48

Mitt Romney

51

49

Rudy Giuliani

49

51

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2B

2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR
PRESIDENT OBAMA

“Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running
against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election,
who would you vote for?”

Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee

Base: All adults

Total

Party ID

Philosophy

Mod.
Ind.

Tea
Party
Support

Rep.

Dem.

Ind.

Cons.

Mod.

Lib.

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

51

87

15

55

81

44

15

45

87

Mitt Romney

49

85

14

52

81

42

10

47

87

Mike Huckabee

48

83

13

52

80

41

10

45

87

Donald Trump

45

73

14

48

74

38

12

41

78

Newt Gingrich

44

81

9

46

79

35

8

36

85

Mitch Daniels

44

80

10

46

77

36

7

37

82

Tim Pawlenty

44

79

9

47

78

35

7

39

82

Rick Santorum

43

79

9

46

76

35

7

37

81

Sarah Palin

42

75

10

43

74

34

8

34

80

Haley Barbour

41

74

10

44

74

33

7

33

79

Michele Bachmann

41

72

10

44

73

33

10

34

77

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3

CONCERN ABOUT THE POLICIES AND POSITIONS OF REPUBLICAN NOMINEES

“How concerned are you about the positions and policies of the various potential Republican nominees?”

Base: Adults who would vote for at least one Republican

Total

Party ID

Philosophy

Mod.
Ind.

Tea
Party
Support

Rep.

Dem.

Ind.

Cons.

Mod.

Lib.

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Concerned (NET)

69

69

66

76

67

70

79

77

73

  Very concerned

30

32

33

32

31

28

43

31

32

  Somewhat concerned

39

38

33

44

36

42

35

46

41

Not concerned (NET)

21

25

16

17

26

16

12

15

23

  Not very concerned

15

19

11

12

18

12

10

12

17

  Not at all concerned

6

6

5

5

8

4

2

3

7

Not at all sure

10

5

18

7

6

14

9

8

3

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 7 to 14, 2011 among 2,379 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

Categories: General

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One Response

  1. Montana says:

    I real hope one of these retreads and blowhards runs for president, not because they have a chance of winning but because I like to see the train wreck that they will cause.

    Faux News Candidates:
    former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin ”The I graduated Early”,
    former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga. “The I Love The Interns”,
    former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee “The Huckster Reverend”,
    former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. “The I Love the Gays”,
    former UN Ambassador John Bolton “The I Love The War ”

    I Finance Myself:
    real estate celebrity developer & 1999 US Prez. Candidate, Donald Trump, “I took my Casino into Bankruptcy, just imagine where I can Take the US”
    former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney “The Flip-Flopping Fudger”,
    former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush “The I Am Not My “Dumb Ass” Brother”,

    Employed Long Shots:
    Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn. “The History, I Don’t Need No Stink’n History”,
    Mississippi Gov./ former tobacco lobbyist, Haley Barbour “The last White Hope”