Jonathan Kantrowitz

Paul Krugman (and I) have been saying this for a long time – it’s nice that someone else at the NY Times has chimed in:

As Economy Sputters, a Timid Fed

Whenever officials at the Federal Reserve confront a big decision, they have to weigh two competing risks. Are they doing too much to speed up economic growth and touching off inflation? Or are they doing too little and allowing unemployment to stay high?

By any standard, joblessness is a bigger problem than inflation… Even if job growth were to accelerate sharply in coming months, the economy would be years away from so-called full employment. But never mind that, the hawks say — rampant inflation is just around the corner.

From Progressives United:

General Electric, America’s largest corporation, made $14,200,000,000 in profits in 2010 and paid $0 in taxes — that’s right, zero dollars in taxes.

At the same time, C.E.O. Jeffrey Immelt saw his compensation double. Now GE is expected to ask 15,000 of their unionized workers to make major concessions in wages and benefits.

Adding insult to injury, Mr. Immelt is chair of President Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness. That’s wrong. Mr. Immelt should not lead the administration’s effort to create jobs.

Join Russ Feingold and sign Progressives United’s petition for Mr. Immelt to resign from his position on President Obama’s jobs panel today.

This is driving me nuts. After my last report I went out and bought a lot of pecans. Now I have to go out and buy walnuts:

1. Walnuts are top nut for heart-healthy antioxidants

“Walnuts rank above peanuts, almonds, pecans, pistachios and other nuts,” said Joe Vinson, Ph.D., who did the analysis. “A handful of walnuts contains almost twice as much antioxidants as an equivalent amount of any other commonly consumed nut. But unfortunately, people don’t eat a lot of them. This study suggests that consumers should eat more walnuts as part of a healthy diet.”

Vinson noted that nuts in general have an unusual combination of nutritional benefits — in addition those antioxidants — wrapped into a convenient and inexpensive package. Nuts, for instance, contain plenty of high-quality protein that can substitute for meat; vitamins and minerals; dietary fiber; and are dairy- and gluten-free. Years of research by scientists around the world link regular consumption of small amounts of nuts or peanut butter with decreased risk of heart disease, certain kinds of cancer, gallstones, Type 2 diabetes, and other health problems.

I’m going to keep eating lots of fish and taking fish-oil supplements:

2. High consumption of omega-3s reduces obesity-related disease risk

3.
Omega-3 Reduces Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

The following have renewed my already strong commitment to oatmeal and apples:

4.
Fiber Intake Associated With Reduced Risk of Death

Dietary fiber may be associated with a reduced risk of death from cardiovascular, infectious and respiratory diseases, as well as a reduced risk of death from any cause over a nine-year period, according to a report posted online February 14 that will be published in the June 14 print issue of Archives of Internal Medicine.

Fiber, the edible part of plants that resist digestion, has been hypothesized to lower risks of heart disease, some cancers, diabetes and obesity, according to background information in the article. It is known to assist with bowel movements, reduce blood cholesterol levels, improve blood glucose levels, lower blood pressure, promote weight loss and reduce inflammation and bind to potential cancer-causing agents to increase the likelihood they will be excreted by the body.

5.
High-fiber diets during early adult years may lower lifetime cardiovascular disease risk

A new study from Northwestern Medicine shows a high-fiber diet could be a critical heart-healthy lifestyle change young and middle-aged adults can make. The study found adults between 20 and 59 years old with the highest fiber intake had a significantly lower estimated lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease compared to those with the lowest fiber intake.

6.

Scientists are reporting the first evidence that consumption of a healthful antioxidant substance in apples extends the average lifespan of test animals, and does so by 10 percent.

We all probably consume too much salt, so I can’t wait for the weather to improve so I can get more exercise (and regain my old level of fitness):

7. Physical activity decreases salt’s effect on blood pressure

Here’s another reason for me to get physically fit:

8. Episodic physical activity & sexual activity = increased risk of heart attack

Episodic physical activity and sexual activity are associated with an increase in the risk of heart attacks for a short window of time during and shortly after the activity. This association was less pronounced among persons with high levels of habitual physical activity.

I feel better about eating my beloved deli meat and hotdogs (although I know the fat content still isn’t good for me and only eat any of it once every 2 or 3 weeks or so) after reading about 9. this research and corresponding with the researcher:

If given the choice between eating a hot dog or enjoying some rotisserie chicken, consider the hot dog. That’s because hot dogs, as well as pepperoni and deli meats, are relatively free of carcinogenic compounds, according to Kansas State University research. But it’s a not-so-happy ending for bacon and rotisserie chicken — especially chicken skin — because both have higher levels of cancerous material.

J. Scott Smith, professor of food chemistry, and a K-State research team have been looking at such ready-to-eat meat products to determine their levels of heterocyclic amines, or HCAs. These are carcinogenic compounds found in meat that is fried, grilled or cooked at high temperatures. Studies have shown that humans who consume large amounts of HCAs in meat products have increased risk of stomach, colon and breast cancers.

I wrote to him asking about nitrites in the preserved meats, but he assured me they weren’t so dangerous after all, which Wikipedia tends to confirm:

A principal concern about sodium nitrite is the formation of carcinogenic nitrosamines in meats containing sodium nitrite when meat is charred or overcooked. Such carcinogenic nitrosamines can be formed from the reaction of nitrite with secondary amines under acidic conditions (such as occurs in the human stomach) as well as during the curing process used to preserve meats. Dietary sources of nitrosamines include US cured meats preserved with sodium nitrite as well as the dried salted fish eaten in Japan. In the 1920s, a significant change in US meat curing practices resulted in a 69% decrease in average nitrite content. This event preceded the beginning of a dramatic decline in gastric cancer mortality.[14] About 1970, it was found that ascorbic acid, an antioxidant, inhibits nitrosamine formation. Consequently, the addition of at least 550 ppm of ascorbic acid is required in meats manufactured in the United States.

I have decided to replace most of my green tea consumption with white tea, after 10. compiling and reviewing recent research which mostly covers green tea, but seems to apply even more strongly to white tea:

When discussing white tea vs green tea, it is important to realize that they both come from the same plant, the tea plant Camellia sinensis. The main difference between the two types of tea is that the white tea leaves are harvested at a younger age than the green tea leaves. They both undergo very little processing. White tea is not fermented at all, while green tea is partly fermented. By contrast, black tea is fully fermented. Because they are so gently treated, white tea and green tea retain their content of beneficial antioxidants.

However, studies have shown that the young, white tea leaves retain antioxidants in higher concentrations than green tea does. Studies have shown that white tea has a concentration of antioxidants that is three times higher than in green tea. Essentially, white tea contains the same concentrations of antioxidants as the young and fresh tea leaf buds that are still attached to the bush. This makes white tea the tea with the highest antioxidant content, which for many is the main reason for drinking white tea. For comparison, one cup of white tea contains approximately twelve (12) times as much antioxidants as fresh orange juice.

Here’s a pretty perfect description of my diet and new confirmation on how good it is for me:

11. Mediterranean diet: A heart-healthy plan for life

The Mediterranean diet is a dietary pattern characterized by high consumption of monounsaturated fatty acids, primarily from olives and olive oils; daily consumption of fruits, vegetables, whole grain cereals, and low-fat dairy products; weekly consumption of fish, poultry, tree nuts, and legumes; a relatively low consumption of red meat; and a moderate daily consumption of alcohol, normally with meals.

The Mediterranean diet has been shown to be associated with decreased mortality from all causes, lower risk for cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, obesity and some types of cancer. Additionally, it has a beneficial effect on abdominal obesity, lipids levels, glucose metabolism and blood pressure levels, which are also risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. The antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects of the Mediterranean diet as a whole, as well as the effects of the individual components of the diet, and especially olive oil, fruits and vegetables, whole grains and fish, also confer to the beneficial role of this pattern.

And more research on the effects of alcohol drives me to drink more:

12.Effects of alcohol on risk factors for cardiovascular disease

The findings described in this paper strengthen the case for a causal link between alcohol intake and a reduced risk of coronary heart disease, suggesting that the lower risk of heart disease observed among moderate drinkers is caused by the alcoholic beverage itself, and not by other associated lifestyle factors.

13.
Alcohol consumption helps stave off dementia

Light-to-moderate alcohol consumption may decrease the risk of cognitive decline or dementia.

I’m not going to add a dose of safflower oil to my diet, but maybe I should:

14. Safflower oil each day might help keep heart disease at bay

A daily dose of safflower oil, a common cooking oil, for 16 weeks can improve such health measures as good cholesterol, blood sugar, insulin sensitivity and inflammation in obese postmenopausal women who have Type 2 diabetes, according to new research. Safflower oil reduced abdominal fat and increased muscle tissue in this group of women after 16 weeks of daily supplementation. These new findings have led the chief researcher to suggest that a daily dose of safflower oil in the diet – about 1 2/3 teaspoons – is a safe way to help reduce cardiovascular disease risk.

All of this and lots more (just in the last 3+ weeks) on my Health News Report blog.

The right way to fix Social Security by Ezra Klein:

Social Security is the last place in the federal government we should look for cuts. It’s a lean, efficient program that, if anything, is too spartan. In 2009, the average monthly benefit was slightly more than $1,000 — hardly lavish. That makes it one of the stingiest national-pension programs in the developed world, actually. And once we finish phasing in the cuts passed in the ’80s, it’ll only replace about 31 percent of the average beneficiary’s income. In a time of underfunded 401(k)s and high unemployment, that’s just not enough for many retirees. Saying Social Security is too generous is like saying a Mini Cooper is too roomy.

But the program’s problems don’t end there. It’s underfunded, ill-designed for certain features and facts of the modern world, and — probably most important — overused. Beyond Social Security, America’s retirement system is, in general, patchy and insufficient, which leaves retirees too reliant on Social Security. They then learn the hard way that the program is not what they’d hoped. We should do better. And we can.

Read the whole article!

This is very good news coming from The Harris Poll, especially since RG hasn’t a prayer of getting the Republican nomination.

Among all adults, assuming these candidates were in the Republican primary election, 10% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Donald Trump, while just under that would vote for Mike Huckabee (8%), Rudy Giuliani (8%) and Sarah Palin (7%). Five percent or less would vote for Newt Gingrich (5%), Tim Pawlenty (2%), Michele Bachmann (2%), Mitch Daniels (2%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Haley Barbour (less than 1%). Almost half of all Americans (45%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,379 adults surveyed online between March 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Looking at just Republicans, the order is a little different and there is also a little less uncertainty. Mike Huckabee is on top of the Republicans’ list at 15% followed by Mitt Romney at 13% and Sarah Palin at 12%. Just under one in ten Republicans would vote for Newt Gingrich (9%), followed by Donald Trump (8%), and Rudy Giuliani (7%). Rounding out the list 3% of Republicans would each vote for Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum and Mitch Daniels and less than 1% for Haley Barbour; one-quarter of Republicans (26%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

Among Independents, the list changes again as Donald Trump moves to the top of who Independents would vote for in a Republican primary (13%) followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Rudy Giuliani (9%) and Mike Huckabee (8%). Two in five Independents (41%) are not at all sure.

Republican candidates versus President Obama

Taking the same list of 11 potential Republican nominees and pitting them against President Obama shows some interesting results. While he only garners 8% of overall adults and just 7% of Republicans in the primary field, Rudy Giuliani is the only candidate on the list who edges out President Obama in a head to head match-up, 51% to 49%. The next two Republicans make it a close race but President Obama edges out Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) and Mike Huckabee (52% to 48%).

Among the next tier of candidates, it’s anywhere from a 10 point margin (Trump 45%/Obama 55%) to 12 point margin (Gingrich, Daniels and Pawlenty 44% versus Obama 56%) to a 14 point margin (Santorum 43%/Obama 57%). The third tier of candidates would be a relief for the current White House as President Obama is ahead by 16 points on Sarah Palin (58% vs. 42%) and 18 points ahead of Haley Barbour and Michele Bachmann (59% vs. 41%).

So What?

Ten months is a lifetime in politics and that’s how long it is until the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses. At this point, the list of potential Republicans will change as the time gets closer and the choruses of “will he/she run” will continue through the summer. But, one thing for all candidates to keep in mind is that when adults who would vote for at least one Republican were asked how concerned they are about the positions and policies of the potential Republican candidates, more than two-thirds (69%) said they are concerned and that number is the same among just Republicans. Among Independents who would vote for at least one Republican, three-quarters are concerned (76%). Republican candidates need to keep in mind that how they act during the primaries is being watched by these Independent voters — a bloc they need if they want to win in November 2012.

TABLE 1 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION “If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”
Base: All adults
	Total	Party ID			Philosophy			Mod. Ind.	Tea Party Support
		Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mitt Romney	10	13	9	11	10	11	8	14	13
Donald Trump	10	8	10	13	9	11	9	14	10
Mike Huckabee	8	15	5	8	15	6	4	5	15
Rudy Giuliani	8	7	9	9	7	8	12	9	7
Sarah Palin	7	12	4	5	12	5	4	2	12
Newt Gingrich	5	9	1	5	10	3	2	3	10
Tim Pawlenty	2	3	2	2	2	3	1	4	3
Michele Bachmann	2	3	2	2	3	2	2	2	3
Mitch Daniels	2	2	1	3	3	1	2	2	2
Rick Santorum	1	2	*	*	*	1	-	*	1
Haley Barbour	*	*	*	1	1	*	*	*	1
Not at all sure	45	26	58	41	29	51	55	44	22
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%

TABLE 2A 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA “Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?”
Base: All adults
	Would vote for
	President Obama	The Republican nominee
	%	%
Michele Bachmann	59	41
Haley Barbour	59	41
Sarah Palin	58	42
Rick Santorum	57	43
Tim Pawlenty	56	44
Mitch Daniels	56	44
Newt Gingrich	56	44
Donald Trump	55	45
Mike Huckabee	52	48
Mitt Romney	51	49
Rudy Giuliani	49	51
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2B 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA “Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?” Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee
Base: All adults
	Total	Party ID			Philosophy			Mod. Ind.	Tea Party Support
		Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	51	87	15	55	81	44	15	45	87
Mitt Romney	49	85	14	52	81	42	10	47	87
Mike Huckabee	48	83	13	52	80	41	10	45	87
Donald Trump	45	73	14	48	74	38	12	41	78
Newt Gingrich	44	81	9	46	79	35	8	36	85
Mitch Daniels	44	80	10	46	77	36	7	37	82
Tim Pawlenty	44	79	9	47	78	35	7	39	82
Rick Santorum	43	79	9	46	76	35	7	37	81
Sarah Palin	42	75	10	43	74	34	8	34	80
Haley Barbour	41	74	10	44	74	33	7	33	79
Michele Bachmann	41	72	10	44	73	33	10	34	77
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3 CONCERN ABOUT THE POLICIES AND POSITIONS OF REPUBLICAN NOMINEES “How concerned are you about the positions and policies of the various potential Republican nominees?”
Base: Adults who would vote for at least one Republican
	Total	Party ID			Philosophy			Mod. Ind.	Tea Party Support
		Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Concerned (NET)	69	69	66	76	67	70	79	77	73
Very concerned	30	32	33	32	31	28	43	31	32
Somewhat concerned	39	38	33	44	36	42	35	46	41
Not concerned (NET)	21	25	16	17	26	16	12	15	23
Not very concerned	15	19	11	12	18	12	10	12	17
Not at all concerned	6	6	5	5	8	4	2	3	7
Not at all sure	10	5	18	7	6	14	9	8	3
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 7 to 14, 2011 among 2,379 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

The failure to pass overdue legislation that provides multi-year federal aid to state highway and transit programs jeopardizes 31,217 jobs in Connecticut, according to new research.

These employees earn a total annual payroll of $1.7 billion and contribute an estimated $139.2 million in state and federal payroll tax revenue. This employment includes the equivalent of 15,551 full-time jobs directly involved in transportation construction and related activities, and 15,665 that are sustained by transportation design and construction industry employee and company spending throughout the state’s economy, according to the analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association Transportation Development Foundation (ARTBA-TDF.)

The ARTBA-TDF report, “U.S. Transportation Construction Industry Profile,” revealed the existence of more than 928,944 full-time jobs in Connecticut in key industries like tourism, retail sales, agriculture and manufacturing that are dependent on the state’s transportation network.

The need for road and bridge improvements is clear. According to the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Connecticut has 21,363 miles of roadway. Of the state’s 6,142 miles of roadway eligible for federal aid, 13.5% are rated “not acceptable” and need major repairs or replacement. This compares to 14.8% of roads in 2007. Connecticut also has 4,186 bridges. FHWA reports 33.6% of the state’s bridges are either “structurally deficient” (378 bridges) or “functionally obsolete” (1,028 bridges). It will cost an estimated $8.4 million to make needed bridge repairs on 4,185 structures in the state.

The last highway and transit law expired in October 2009. Federal aid to the states has been sustained ever since through a series of short-term extensions. The uncertainty of future funding levels is causing state transportation departments to slow down or delay projects, and in turn, impacting hiring decisions and equipment purchases by transportation design and construction firms.

RIght Wing Attacks: Public Schools!

“Just call them what they are,” Santorum said. “Public schools? That’s a nice way of putting it. These are government-run schools.”

He’s not alone. Several other Republicans considering presidential runs blasted public schools at a home-schooling rally in Iowa. Texas Congressman Ron Paul told the crowd government wants “absolute control” of the “indoctrination” of children. Paul spoke along with Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Georgia businessman Herman Cain.

“The public school system now is a propaganda machine,” Paul said. “They start with our kids even in kindergarten, teaching them about family values, sexual education, gun rights, environmentalism — and they condition them to believe in so much which is totally un-American.” Bachmann said home schooling is the “essence” of freedom and liberty. “It’s about knowing our children better than the state knows our children,” she said. For his part, Cain said there should be no government involvement in education at any level. He wasn’t kidding.

To be sure, Bachmann, Paul, and Cain are not exactly the top tier of the 2012 GOP field, and strange, borderline-fringe candidates can be expected to take radical positions. But Santorum is also blasting the existence of public schools, and this talk is picking up in right-wing media.

Mainstream Republicans: Don’t help Muslims:

This morning, I published a story on the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency, which encouraged companies to offer sharia-compliant mortgages as part of then-Governor Tim Pawlenty effort to expand minority homeownership. Minnesota has a relatively large Muslim population, and the Islamic prohibition against payment or receiving of interest is an obstacle to owning a home for observant Muslims. The initiative Pawlenty supported allowed Muslims a way around this.

This was a relatively innocuous solution to an obvious problem. But Pawlenty’s camp is now pushing back on this story by arguing that, no, Pawlenty never supported sharia-compliant mortgages at all. Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant emails me this:

This program was independently set up by the MN state housing agency and did not make any mention of Sharia Law on its face, but was later described by critics as accommodating it. As soon as Gov. Pawlenty became aware of the issue, he personally ordered it shut it down. Fortunately, only about three people actually used the program before it was terminated at the Governor’s direction.