Overtime

For the last 50 hours you have gone through reams of analysis, been yelled at by Dick Vitale (well that has been a lot more than just 50 hours!) and have been given every reason why each of the 65 teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament field can be considered a favorite or a sleeper.

And if you are like most people, you digest it all and will go against your better instincts, waiting until the last minute as you overthink your brackets and office pools.

I was determined this year not to follow suit. While I read all the articles — even the Wall Street Journal today has a statistical study on how to pick upsets: go with teams that don’t turn the ball over — I decided to stay true to my instincts.

For the most part. I have three No. 1 seeds in my Final Four, when I only really love one, or perhaps two. Too many of the teams I like a lot play each other in the first or, potentially, second rounds.

Far be it for me to tell you how to fill out your sheets; you probably know better than to listen to me by now anyhow.

So, for your amusement/entertainment/?, here is a little breakdown of my bracket.

MIDWEST

Breakdown: Kansas is the only No. 1 team I feel strongly about, even though it was given the toughest draw of the top seeds. The team has the fewest weaknesses. Ohio State and Georgetown are capable of making it to Indianapolis. Michigan State has a great tournament pedigree but has been hurt by injuries and internal problems. Tennessee is a head-scratcher; a team that could go down early or make a deep run.

Sleeper: This is the region, because of its strength at the top, that I have staying closest to form, with the top three seeds and Michigan State advancing.

First-round upset: San Diego State is hot, and I’m counting on the bad Tennessee to show up.

And the winner is…. Kansas is the best team in the country and will skirt the obstacles.

WEST

Breakdown: This was my most difficult region because it has so many of the sleepers I like, with two double-digit seeds, UTEP and Murray State, I normally would think about winning two games if they weren’t to meet in the second round. BYU is capable of making it to the Elite Eight — I have it going that far. Syracuse is a solid team but, injuries aside, I’ve always thought it was a bit overrated. I think Kansas State has the best chance to beat the Orange — but I have it falling to BYU in the second round.

Sleeper: I like UTEP to get two wins, beating Murray State in the second round, and BYU to take out Xavier in the Sweet 16.

First-round upset: UTEP over Butler and Murray State over Vanderbilt.

And the winner is… Syracuse by default. Tempted to go with BYU but I have a hard time seeing it winning four games, and I think Kansas State won’t be around to squeeze the Orange.

EAST

Breakdown: Proof, for the most part, that I am staying true to my own heart. Washington, which I loved at the start of the year, was the biggest underachiever during the regular season in a really weak Pac-10. The Huskies got hot to win the conference tournament, and I am taking them to win two games. There are a number of intriguing teams here, including Wisconsin, Cornell, Missouri and Montana.

Sleeper: Cornell. No, I am not drinking the Jay Bilas Kool-Aid punch. Despite the Ivy League pedigree, Cornell has played and defeated elite competition all year and will take out an underrated Temple team and then the always-tough-to-face Badgers.

First-round upset: Cornell and Washington will put two more double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16.

And the winner is… Kentucky or West Virginia, West Virginia or Kentucky? My wimp-out pick. My head says West Virginia, but Kentucky would provide the more compelling storyline and I just have a feeling vulnerable youth will prevail.

SOUTH

Breakdown: Duke is the weakest of the No. 1 seeds, while this region has three of the more compelling opening-round games: California-Louisville, Notre Dame-Old Dominion and Richmond-St. Mary’s.

Sleeper: The Atlantic 10 had terrific depth this year, and Richmond, though it lost to Temple in the tournament final, gets the kind of good guard play teams need to advance in the tournament.

First-round upset: Old Dominion’s defense will shut down streaking Notre Dame in a low-scoring squeaker, while Siena is everyone’s favorite upset pick against Hummel-less Purdue.

And the winner is… It is a relative unknown from the second-best conference this year and has one of the most unpopular coaches, but Baylor’s athleticism and superior guard play will allow it to take down Duke in the regional final.

FINAL FOUR

Kansas will defeat Syracuse, Kentucky holds off Baylor, and then Bill Self and the Jayhawks take down a John Calipari-coached team for the second time in three years.