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FCIAC boys basketball tournament scenarios

Here we are.

With one night left, the FCIAC is a debacle. There are five teams– Warde, Trumbull, Danbury, Greenwich and Bridgeport Central– tied for the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds at 9-8. Ludlowe and Staples are one game behind with 8-9 records, and Stamford is a game up on the five in the No. 6 position.

This much can be confirmed. But according to the FCIAC, both Ludlowe and Warde are mathematically alive for one of those two spots. Ludlowe needs a ton of help, even if it beats Darien on senior night at Ludlowe on Wednesday.

Every game FCIAC game Wednesday night, except Wilton at New Canaan, has playoff ramifications. Warde hosts St. Joseph, Greenwich travels to Danbury, Trumbull hosts Trinity Catholic and Central must visit McMahon. If Stamford beats Harding, the Black Knights will be the league’s No. 6 seed.

Have you got all that? Good. Now here’s how each team can reach the FCIAC playoffs, starting with the clubs from Fairfield. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll leave Staples out. If the Wreckers wanted to be mentioned, they should’ve held a 21-point lead at McMahon Monday night.

Warde (11-8, 9-8) controls all the cards here. If the Mustangs win Wednesday, they’re in. The only problem is, to get

If Sal Siciliano and Warde can upset St. Joes, the Mustangs will be in the FCIAC tournament

in, Warde must do what no other team in the league has done this year: beat St. Joseph. The Cadets are 19-0, 17-0 in the league and have arguably the best player in the county, Timajh Parker.

Warde can also get in with a loss, but it gets much trickier with that. If the Mustangs lose, they must hope for Trinity to beat Trumbull, McMahon to beat Central and Danbury to beat Greenwich. The Mustangs would be the No. 8 seed if all that happened, by virtue of their wins over Trumbull, Central and Greenwich.

Simply put, if Central, Trumbull, Greenwich and Warde end tied, the Mustangs get in because they’ve beaten all those teams.

Ludlowe (8-11, 8-9) has the hardest road of any team not named Staples. First things first, Ludlowe needs win at Darien to even have a prayer of the FCIAC tournament.

I was told by the FCIAC that the Falcons, mathematically, are still alive, but I still haven’t figured out the equation that gets them in. Ludlowe would have to finish in a bizarre multi-team tie scenario and then have Ridgefield beat Westhill for the Falcons to have the “best win.”

Greenwich (11-8, 9-8) and Danbury (11-8, 9-8) will play in Danbury at 7 p.m. If Warde loses to St. Joseph, this becomes a play-in game for the last FCIAC spot. The loser is out, the winner is in.

Either way, the loser is out. If Warde wins, and Danbury beats Greenwich, the Hatters would need Trinity to beat Trumbull to get in as the No. 7 seed. If Warde and Greenwich win, the Cardinals would need Trinity to beat Trumbull and Central to lose to McMahon to get in.

If Warde, Danbury and Central all win, and Trinity beats Trumbull, Warde and Danbury would be in. Warde would have the best win and would be the No. 7 seed. The Hatters would then get in by virtue of that head-to-head win over Central.

Ah, Bridgeport Central (10-8, 9-8). The Hilltoppers stand to gain the most if Warde loses. Central loses any tiebreaker with Danbury by virtue of that 109-106, double OT loss on opening night, but with a win over Brien McMahon would be the No. 8 seed, as long as St. Joseph caps the undefeated season.

If Greenwich beats Danbury and Warde loses, Central would be the No. 7 seed and Greenwich would be No. 8. Unless…

If Trumbull, and standout guard Travis Fonseca, can upset Trinity Catholic, the Eagles will likely reach FCIACs

…Trumbull (10-9, 9-8) becomes the fly in the ointment. The best case scenario for the Eagles involves Trumbull beating Trinity, Warde losing to St. Joseph, Central falling to McMahon and Danbury beating Greenwich.

If Trumbull finishes in a three-way tie with Danbury and Central, the Eagles and Hatters get in by virtue of the fourth tiebreaker, “best win.” Trumbull’s best wins would be over the FCIAC’s No. 2 seed, either Westhill or Trinity Catholic.

If Trumbull loses, it’s out.

Confused? Yeah, so am I. And we haven’t even gotten to the seeding tiebreakers that involve the 2-5 teams. The likeliest prediction involves Central and the winner of Danbury/Greenwich. But given the FCIAC’s bizarre schedule to date, I find it hard to believe that will happen. Look for either Trumbull or Warde to upset their opponent and sneak in the dance.

I guess, we’ll reconvene on Twitter Wednesday night.

Fairfield’s girls basketball state tournament were released Wednesday.

In Class LL, No. 31 Ludlowe will visit second-seeded Lauralton Hall on Monday at 7 p.m. No. 19 Warde will trek to Glastonbury on Monday night as well.

In Class M, ND will travel to Hartford to play Classical Magnet in its first-round game on Monday at 7.

Pat Pickens is the sports editor of the Fairfield Citizen, a Hearst Connecticut Newspaper organization. Follow him on Twitter here.

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