Breaking down the GOP Senate primary

The geographic boundaries of Connecticut's five congressional districts.

Don’t worry, we’re not in the business of calling Florida for Al Gore or George W. Bush a la the 2000 election.

But here’s a primer on things political junkies will be monitoring closely tonight as the returns come in from the Republican Senate primary race between Christopher Shays and Linda McMahon.

1) Can Shays, who served in Congress from 1987 to 2008, protect his home turf?

“We need to win the 4th District. They know me,” Shays readily acknowledged in an interview Tuesday afternoon in Norwalk.

2) How dominant is McMahon’s ground game in the 5th District, which stretches from Danbury to the Farmington River Valley and includes Litchfield County, Meriden and New Britain.

Remember, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton is a key McMahon supporter. So is David Cappiello, McMahon’s campaign manager from 2010 and a former state senator from Danbury.

“McMahon is stronger in the 5th District,” Shays said.

3) Could a strong turnout for the hotly contested 5th District congressional seat boost McMahon’s numbers in that part of the state?

4) Lastly, keep an eye on the 2nd District in the eastern part of the state. It was once represented by Rob Simmons, who lost a three-way primary to McMahon two years ago and has come out strong for his former House colleague Shays.

Neil Vigdor