Archive for September, 2012

Ten races where Mitt Romney could sink Republican candidates

Sunday, September 30, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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Mitt Romney’s campaign woes have taken a toll on Republican candidates in Democratic-leaning or swing states.

Polls show that some Republicans who had been running ahead of Democratic opponents have now slipped into tight contests, while others who had been surging around Labor Day have now dropped behind.

The impact of Romney’s struggles is not as evident in heavily Republican states, where President Obama appears to have little or no coattails.

Here are ten elections where Obama’s strength — or Romney’s weakness — could sink Republican nominees:

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

The freshman Republican shocked the Democratic establishment by winning a 2010 special election for the Senate seat long held by Ted Kennedy, but now he’s suffering from anti-Romney backlash in Mitt’s home state. The GOP presidential candidate, a former Massachusetts governor, is trailing in Bay State polls by as many as 33 percentage points. Even though the state has a large bloc of independents — and Brown is one of the most independent Republicans in the Senate — a massive Obama blow-out could make a flawed Democratic nominee, Elizabeth Warren, a senator.

Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon

Just when Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon was surging, Mitt Romney’s “47 percent” controversy came along. The former wrestling CEO, who has run a disciplined and well-organized campaign, saw a short-lived lead over Democrat Chris Murphy turn into a small but significant deficit over the past three weeks. McMahon still has a chance if her attacks on Murphy’s attendance record and personal finances become significant issues in the eyes of the voters. But a double-digit win by Obama could doom her best efforts.

Rhode Island House challenger Brendan Doherty

Freshman Democrat David Cicilline is in trouble not because of anything he’s done in Washington, but because of the mess he left behind in Providence. Cicilline, the city’s former mayor, said two years ago that he was leaving the city in excellent condition. The current mayor, Democrat Angel Taveras, has described Providence’s finances as a ‘‘Category 5 hurricane.” His Republican opponent, former Rhode Island State Police Chief Brendan Doherty, has remained competitive in a state with a three-to-one Democratic registration edge and an independent governor who is backing President Obama. Cicilline is trying to tie Doherty to the Romney-Ryan agenda, prompting Doherty to tell the Associated Press: ‘‘I am not a part of any radical position. I’m running as Brendan Doherty. I’m my own man.’’ Doherty could be the right candidate in the wrong year.

California Rep. Dan Lungren

Democrat Ami Bera, the former chief medical officer of Sacramento County and a medical professor at the University of California, Davis, ran a respectable race against veteran California conservative Dan Lungren two years ago but fell short amid the national GOP landslide. This year, the tide has turned and California Republicans are playing defense in a state where President Obama could win by 20 percentage points. Lungren and San Diego Republican congressman Brian Bilbray are the incumbents most likely to be swept away if Romney doesn’t close the gap.

Illinois Rep. Bob Dold

Illinois freshman Rep. Bob Dold holds the distinction of representing the most Democratic congressional district currently in Republican hands. Add to that the fact that Illinois is President Obama’s home state and he’s going to win biiiiiiiiiiig there. One Tea Party freshman from Illinois, Joe Walsh, is already toast. But Dold, one of the most independent of the GOP freshmen, has run a solid campaign and remains in a competitive contest with Democratic businessman Brad Schneider. Romney’s performance could well determine Dold’s future.

Washington state gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna

The state of Washington is the most Democratic in the nation when it comes to its governorship. No Republican has been elected governor here since 1980. At the outset of this year’s campaign, GOP Attorney General Rob McKenna has a good chance of making history. Recent polls show the race a dead heat and McKenna, a Texas native, leads among independents. But the Democratic tide could help former congressman Jay Inslee keep the Democratic streak alive.

Virginia Senate candidate George Allen

Until Romney’s September woes, the Virginia Senate race was the nation’s closest. But recent polls show Democrat Tim Kaine moving ahead of Republican George Allen in a battle of popular former governors. Kaine’s lead mirrors Obama’s — and there are not many Virginians who will split their tickets. If Romney rebounds — and it’s possible that he will — Allen will, too. If not, Kaine will keep this Senate seat in Democratic hands.

Pennsylvania Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick

Democrats are working overtime to tie Republican congressman Mike Fitzpatrick to Romney. They are calling the incumbent “mini-Mitt” and “Mike FitzRomney” after he told a Tea Party group that Congress needs people who “sign the front of a paycheck, not the back of the paycheck.” An upset winner in 2010, the suburban Philadelphia Republican entered the current election year a clear favorite when the Democrat he ousted, Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy, decided to run for Pennsylvania attorney general rather than seeking a rematch. But Obama swept Philadelphia’s suburbs in 2008 and is likely to win comfortably among Fitzpatrick’s Bucks County constituents. That gives hope to Democratic nominee Kathy Boockvar, who Fitzpatrick derisively dismisses as “a Pelosi protégé.”

New York House challenger Chris Collins

Democrat Kathy Hochul won a dramatic upset in a 2011 special election for a western New York House seat surrendered by Republican Chris Lee, whose shirtless photo made him one of the Empire State’s laughingstock lawmakers. (Think Anthony Weiner.) Republicans have a 40,000 voter edge in registration here, and GOP nominee Chris Collins, a former Erie County Executive, is well-known. Collins held a slight edge in August polling, but that was before Romney’s slump. With Obama favored to win New York by 20 percentage points or more, Collins could come up short.

Arizona Senate candidate Jeff Flake

The tough immigration enforcement law that won the state national admirers and detractors has had one unintended effect: It has strongly motivated Latinos and Democrats to come to the polls in 2012. The result is closer-than-anticipated races both for president and Senate in Arizona. While Romney seems likely to hang on, the prognosis is more iffy for Rep. Jeff Flake, the early favorite to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Jon Kyl. The beneficiary is Rich Carmona, President George W. Bush’s U.S. Surgeon General, who is the Democratic Senate nominee. Recent polling shows a close race. If Romney avoids further setbacks, Flake should be able to hold on. If the bottom falls out on the GOP presidential candidate, however, Carmona could be one of the surprise winners on Nov. 6.

Dogleg right

Sunday, September 30, 2012 by:Neil Vigdor
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DARIEN — Despite a sizable Secret Service detail here for Paul Ryan, members of Woodway Country Club in Darien are still managing to squeeze in a round.

Ten races where Barack Obama could sink Democratic incumbents

Sunday, September 30, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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There’s been a lot of media attention lately focused on Republican candidates who are distancing themselves from struggling presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

But Mitt Romney’s not the only presidential candidate who made turn out to be toxic for some of his own party’s candidates. Barack Obama’s lack of popularity in Republican-leaning states is endangering some Democratic incumbents who are trying to survive the anti-Obama tide in their states.

Here are ten Democratic incumbents who could lose their jobs because of Obama:

1. Montana Sen. Jon Tester

Jon Tester narrowly unseated Republican Sen. Conrad Burns six years ago in the national backlash against George W. Bush. But Bush is not on the ballot now. And President Obama remains unpopular in Montana. Tester is running as an independent-minded incumbent, but Republican Denny Rehberg is doing his best to make Obama an anchor that will sink the freshman Democrat.

2. Utah Rep. Jim Matheson

If there is one state where a pro-Romney wave could unseat a Democratic incumbent, it’s in heavily Mormon Utah. Romney could win three-fourths of the vote, and a Romney romp could cost the state’s lone Democratic congressman, Jim Matheson, his seat. His opponent, Tea Party favorite Mia Love, is mayor of Saratoga Springs, the first black female mayor in Utah history. If she beats Matheson, she would become the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress and the first African American Mormon lawmaker.

3. North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell

Rep. Larry Kissell survived the Republican onslaught of 2010 only to see North Carolina’s Republican legislature make his district far more challenging for the Democrat. The GOP took African-American neighborhoods in Charlotte out of the former social studies teacher’s district and added heavily Republican suburban and rural areas. Kissell is stressing his independence (and his vote against President Obama’s health-care reform law) in a district that cast 63 percent of its votes for George W. Bush and 57 percent for John McCain in the past two presidential elections. Romney could carry the district by 15 percentage points in 2012, and that likely would spell doom for Kissell.

4. Georgia Rep. John Barrow

Republicans are confident that Barack Obama will sink four-term Democrat John Barrow, the last remaining white Democrat in the Deep South. After all, the Georgia legislature added significant numbers of rural white voters (a.k.a., Republicans) to a district anchored by the African-American neighborhoods of Savannah and Augusta. Republican nominee Lee Anderson is so confident of winning that he’s refusing to debate Barrow — even though he engaged in 17 candidate forums in the Republican primary and runoff campaigns. Anti-Obama fervor will bring conservatives out to vote in the district — but African-American turnout is likely to be high, as well.

5. Pennsylvania Rep. Mark Critz

Mark Critz skipped the Democratic convention in 2012. That tells you a lot about his view of whether Barack Obama is an asset or a liability in his southwestern Pennsylvania district. Critz narrowly won a 2010 special election to replace the late Jack Murtha and defeated fellow Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire in a bruising 2012 primary in an oddly shaped district concocted by the Republican-dominated Pennsylvania legislature. The new 12th District, which wraps around Pittsburgh, favored John McCain in 2008 by 54 percent to 45 percent. Republicans are confident that their candidate, Keith Rothfus, will get a big boost from anti-Obama sentiment out here in deer hunter territory.

6. Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler

The rematch in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District between Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler and Republican challenger Andy Barr could end up as close as their 2010 nail-biter. Democrats say 2012 is not 2010 — and say the incumbent has a double-digit lead in their polls. But Obama’s political machine is weak in Kentucky, and Chandler is bracing for presidential fallout.

7. West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin

In West Virginia’s 2012 Democratic presidential primary, a convicted felon serving time in a Texas prison received more than 40 percent of the vote against President Obama. In the Democratic primary. Deep distaste for Obama in Appalachia gives any West Virginia Democrat reason to fret in November. Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is favored over Republican rival Bill Maloney, who hosted Texas Gov. Rick Perry at a summertime campaign stop. But Democrats aren’t taking anything for granted in a state where Romney is likely to win by more than 20 percentage points.

8. West Virginia Rep. Nick Rahall

The Mountaineer State’s only surviving Democratic House member also isn’t taking anything for granted. A Democratic poll showed veteran incumbent Nick Rahall with a massive lead over Republican Jack Snuffer. But Republicans are hoping that Romney’s coattails will be long — at least in West Virginia.

9. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown

Ohio’s Senate race seems inextricably tied to the presidential contest. Both President Obama and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown have opened up statistically significant leads. But Republicans note that even with Romney’s current woes, Josh Mandel is still running within 8 percentage points of the Democratic incumbent. If Romney can turn things around — and if anti-Obama Republicans flood to the polls — Brown could face a close call.

10. Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill’s Republican opponent, Todd Akin, has become the butt of jokes and national ridicule for a string of sexist comments. But he’s still within striking distance of freshman Democrat Claire McCaskill. Mitt Romney is likely to win comfortably in the Show Me State. In a state that elected a dead man to the Senate in 2000, anything is possible.

5 hits and 5 misses from the campaign trail, Sep. 24-28

Friday, September 28, 2012 by:David McCumber, Washington Bureau Chief
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Here are the highlights from an eclectic campaign week. Add it all up and it looks like another strong week for the Obama campaign – but not without some encouraging developments for the Republican ticket.

Hits:

1. Benghazi opens another front for GOP. The Obama administration has flailed on the issue of the deadly Libya consular attack that claimed the life of U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens. They have been slow to recognize that the attack was distinct from the protesting street mobs, and Republicans, desperate to seize on anything that could look like a big mistake by the administration, are claiming a conspiracy and a coverup. It’s also a chance for the Republican Party to deflect attention to Romney’s clumsiness and relative inexperience in foreign policy.  Advantage: Romney.

2. Tough talk on Iran, at the right time. The Romney campaign desperately needs more appeal to Jewish voters. That’s why Sheldon Adelson is pouring money into ads targeting them. In that vein, the Romney camp would just love to paint President Obama as soft on Israeli security. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a personal friend of Mitt Romney’s, this would seem to be a promising avenue of attack. But Obama just won’t give that scenario any oxygen. His speech Tuesday to the UN General Assembly, warning Iran that their time to comply with international demands “is not unlimited,” and  “a nuclear Iran is not a challenge that can be contained,” cut off the argument at the knees and earned praise at Netanyahu’s own General Assembly speech two days later. Advantage: Obama.

3. Soros kicks in. With Republicans raising far more dollars through Super PAC donations than Democrats, the Obama campaign had to be psyched this week when the New York Times disclosed that George Soros had given $1.5 million to Dem PACs, including $1 million to Priorities USA Action, the leading Obama reelection Super PAC. He’s given a total of $4.3 million to Democratic groups this cycle. But Republicans still lead the PAC money race by a healthy margin, and lightning rod Soros’ entrance into the fray is already being used as a fund-raising tool by the GOP. Advantage:  Still Romney.

4. Pennsylvania vote law eased. In a last-gasp effort to get a court to allow its implementation, Pennsylvania eased a key provision of its Voter ID law. Prospective voters will now have to give only their name, date of birth, Social Security number and address – not two documents showing where they live. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court had ordered a lower court to invalidate the law unless the state could prove that there would be no disenfranchisement of voters. The court is expected to decide whether or not to block the law altogether by next Tuesday. Advantage: Voters.

5. The economy shows signs of strength. …The housing market continues to recover, and this time it’s the most affordable houses that are ticking up in value. The July home-price numbers, released Tuesday, show all 20 cities surveyed showing price increases, indicating that we’ve seen the worst – finally – of the housing malaise. Also, stock prices continue to hover at levels close to five-year highs. Yes, unemployment remains high, but companies have money to invest and the outlook is better than it’s been for awhile. Advantage: Obama.

Misses:

1.  …but the deficit looms. Sunday’s close of the fiscal year will bring new focus on the intractable budget deficit, projected to top $1 trillion for the fourth straight year. It’s a talking point for the GOP and they are wasting no time lining up to criticize President Obama for breaking his promise to cut the deficit in half. While he uses a tortuous technical argument to make the case that he has done so, the takeaway from the magical $1 trillion number is unmistakable. “Of all the broken promises from President Obama, this is probably the worst one,” GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan said Tuesday. Yes, the Bush tax cuts and spending on Iraq and Afghanistan wars have a lot more to do with the deficit than Obama’s stimulus. But the fact remains that this is a tried and true talking point for the Republicans. Advantage :Romney.

2. The ache just won’t go away: Todd Akin stays in the race, and the pain continues. Just how tone-deaf is he? He volunteered the opinion Tuesday that when his Missouri opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskill, ran against Sen Jim Talent in 2006 she was “very much more sort of ladylike” than she is today – a fact that he attributes to her being “threatened” this time around. Then, proving that political ethics (oxymoron alert) are invariably situational, the National Republican Senatorial Committee gave in and endorsed Akin Thursday. Tantalized by the fact Akin continues to be competitive, the organization, headed by Texas Sen. John Cornyn, issued a statement that “we hope Todd Akin wins in November.” Cornyn later said that didn’t mean the organization would give Akin any money. But Republicans were clearly seen as backtracking on what started out as a matter of principle. Reince Priebus said emphatically just a month ago that the Republican Party would not support Akin. Now, he says the party “absolutely” supports him. Advantage: Obama.

3 For GOP, the Ryan Medicare nightmare. Paul Ryan was a calculated risk for Mitt Romney. Now, the calculations are coming in, and they may be the campaign’s death knell. Look at these results from the Quinnipiac/New York Times swing-states poll released Wednesday: The GOP is getting crushed on the issue of Medicare. By margins of 55-40 in Florida and 55-39 in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, voters believe Obama would do the better job for Medicare recipients. Those numbers are up dramatically since the selection of Ryan as Romney’s running mate. Voters are ignoring the nuance and the spin and going to the heart of the Ryan budget proposal, and they don’t like what they’re hearing. Advantage: Obama.

4. We have met the enemy, and he is us. After raising the specter of vote fraud as a rationale for Voter ID laws and aggressive examination of voter rolls in urban areas across the country particularly in swing states, the Republican Party has finally found the biggest confirmed case of voter fraud in this election cycle. It involves  irregularities in six Florida counties, to wit, dead people being registered to vote in a coordinated effort run by a political consultant. The only catch is that the dead were being registered as Republicans by a GOP-hired consultant, Strategic Allied Consulting of Tempe, Ariz. Advantage: Obama.

5. Don’t count on that big refund. After widespread criticism that the Romney plan to cut taxes and the deficit simultaneously was unrealistic and lacking specifics, the challenger’s campaign perceived an opening to lure independent voters who are exceedingly worried about the deficit. Emphasizing his resolve to cut the deficit, Romney Wednesday took the opportunity to warn voters – still without benefit of specifics – that they shouldn’t expect “a huge cut in taxes because I’m also going to lower deductions and exemptions.”  The retreat on taxes took on surreal semantics when he explained, “What we’re proposing is a tax reform, not a tax cut.” So if taxes aren’t going down, in what direction can we expect them to go? Advantage: Obama.

Dems take aim at US Rep. Paul Ryan’s imminent Connecticut visit

Friday, September 28, 2012 by:Ken Dixon
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The Democratic National Committee’s “Rapid Response Team” just sent an email to state reporters announcing a conference call this morning that will use US Rep. Paul Ryan’s imminent fundraising visit, to criticize the national GOP agenda. Featured in the reporters’ call challenging the GOP’s vice presidential candidate will be US Rep. Chris Murphy, in a tough race against Republican Linda McMahon for the US Senate – and Elizabeth Esty, who is running against Republican state Sen. Andrew Roraback in the 5th District. Also participating will be US Rep. Rosa DeLauro and state party Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo. Ryan will be in the state for three fundraisers on Sunday.

Here’s some of the press release:

“…The Romney-Ryan ticket has vowed to end Medicare as we know it, turning it into a voucher program that would increase costs on seniors by $6,000 while Mitt Romney’s tax plan could apply taxes to Social Security benefits to pay for $5 trillion in new tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans.

Just recently we learned what Linda McMahon would do to Social Security if elected to the U.S. Senate.  Like Romney and Ryan she would seek to erode the safety net many seniors rely on, noting before a gathering of Tea Party activist this year that she would seek to add a ‘Sunset Provision’ to the Social Security Act – potentially phasing out this vital program that gives seniors economic security.

Republicans have shown they are out of touch with the needs of America’s seniors, particularly those Mitt Romney wrote off when he said that 47 percent of Americans were victims who failed to take personal responsibility for their lives, including many hardworking seniors who worked their whole lives and now live on a fixed incomes.

Seniors shouldn’t be put down and they certainly don’t deserve to have the safety net they have worked hard for and paid into undermined by the out of touch policies of Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and Linda McMahon.”

Wait, who’s the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate?

Thursday, September 27, 2012 by:Brian Lockhart
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Unaffiliated voters, meet Linda McMahon.

Some of you may have heard she’s the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.

Don’t be fooled.

You haven’t seen her latest campaign mailer, directed right at you.

The term “Republican” appears once, and even then as almost an afterthought.

“Linda wants to go to Washington and work with Independents, Democrats and Republicans to find common ground on important issues…”

I’m sure Republicans are grateful they’re listed third ;)

When she names Senators she’d emulate, there’s no mention of party affiliation, either.

“She will lead in the tradition of respected independent leaders like Senator Joe Lieberman (the self-described independent Democrat who backed a Republican for president in 2008 and whose retirement gave Linda an opening for this second run for U.S. Senate), Senator Susan Collins (a Maine Republican), Senator Scott Brown (a Massachusetts Republican) and others who buck the party line and do what is best for the country.”

McMahon successfully petitioned her way on to the November ballot as the Independent Party candidate, allowing her to also state in the mailer that she “is the Independent Choice for the U.S. Senate.” (Although, frankly, she was also the only game in town for a third party trying to remain relevant in Connecticut politics).

The mailer – which you can view in the photos below – really is something.

GOP Chairman Jerry Labriola hadn’t seen it when I phoned him. But when I read Labriola the contents he called McMahon “a stalwart Republican” who has been very supportive of the party, its candidates and the fundamental Republican principal of fiscal responsibility.

“It’s no surprise to me,” Labriola said. ““We have a long tradition of Yankee Republicans who have shown an independent streak while at the same time voting in a pro growth, fiscally responsible manner and putting the interests of Connecticut at the forefront.”

McMahon actually beat one in August’s GOP primary – ex-U.S. Rep. Chris Shays.

I’m sure some of her fellow Republicans may cringe when they learn McMahon is promising to “buck the party line.” But the smart ones know whether she means it or not, McMahon needs the support of unaffiliated voters to win in blue Connecticut. And they can take comfort knowing at the end of the day she still has that “R” next to her name.

Here’s the mailer, in four parts:

Front

Inside Left

Inside Right

Back


Coming to a theater near you!: Moses!

Wednesday, September 26, 2012 by:Brian Lockhart
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Not this Moses.

This Moses.

Maybe Linda McMahon needs to avoid questions at Tea Party events…

Wednesday, September 26, 2012 by:Brian Lockhart
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The Huffington Post tonight is reporting on Republican U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon’s “little noticed” remarks made at a Tea Party event in Waterford in April about Social Security.

According to the report, McMahon made a vague reference to a Social Security Act “sunset provision” when asked about strengthening Social Security and Medicare.

It’s the kind of comment that can cause a bit of a distraction for a campaign and a candidate like McMahon, who simply does not have a reputation as a policy wonk, because opponents will fill in the blanks for voters. You can just hear the Democratic ads now, narrated by a woman, of course, to appeal to that segment of voters McMahon needs to win over: “Republican Linda McMahon told Tea Party extremists she wants to eliminate Social Security!!! Linda McMahon: Bad for the elderly and disabled!!!”

(For those who are interested, here’s what McMahon had to say about Social Security in an interview with our Hearst newspapers during her first Senate bid in 2010.)

All campaigns play the “this is what my opponent REALLY meant” game. “You didn’t build that,” anyone?

This same thing happened to McMahon during her 2010 race after she spoke that April to a Tea Party audience.

McMahon made comments that some interpreted at the time as her being open to eliminating the departments of education, energy and environmental protection. Her campaign then had to attempt to clarify what McMahon said.

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