The ten most competitive Senate races of 2012 (Connecticut is #3)

Democrats are playing defense in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate.

Twenty three of the 33 seats up for grabs in 2012 are currently held by Democrats. And Democratic retirements in Nebraska, North Dakota, Hawaii and New Mexico created some prime pick-up opportunities for the Republican Party.

All that led pundits to predict, at the beginning of the year, that the GOP was more likely than not to win the four (net) seats it needed to guarantee a majority of 51.

But a funny thing happened on the way to a Republican Senate.

The human factor.

Despite all of the computer calculations that looked so good for the Republicans, the GOP ended up saddled with some defective candidates (Todd Akin in Missouri against vulnerable Democratic freshman Claire McCaskill, Tea Party champion Richard Mourdock in Indiana) and Democrats came up with some candidates who remained competitive after the pundits had counted them out (Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana).

The result: a lot of close races. With all of the tight races, the next Senate could contain anywhere between 43 and 57 Republicans. The consensus is the GOP is likely to hold between 47 and 52 seats in the new Senate. The authoritative Five Thirty Eight blog now gives the Democrats a 79 percent probability of maintaining Senate control.

These are the races that will decide whether Harry Reid or Mitch McConnell (or Jim DeMint) will lead the Senate in 2013:

1. Montana

Republicans have targeted Democrat Jon Tester from the day he narrowly ousted GOP Sen. Conrad Burns six years ago. Conservatives are hoping to dislodge Tester, a maverick with a flat-top haircut, by tying him to President Obama. Republican Mitt Romney is likely to carry Montana, but polls show that the presidential race in this populist, independent-minded state is much closer than neighbors such as Wyoming, North Dakota and Idaho. Republican Senate nominee Denny Rehberg, the state’s lone congressman, is popular and well-known, so the Senate race is likely to remain tight to the very end.

2. Massachusetts

Mitt Romney may be a big, big liability in his home state. And that could spell doom for first-term Republican Sen. Scott Brown. The man whose victory heralded the rise of Tea Party political influence in January 2010 has slipped behind Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren in the three most recent polls. A Suffolk University poll showed Romney trailing President Obama by 64 percent to 31 percent, and discouraged Republicans (and Republican-leaning independents) may be less likely to turn out on election day. Brown’s biggest advantages are his personal popularity, a relatively moderate record that appeals to blue-collar independents, and occasional mistakes by the Democratic nominee, an ex-Harvard professor and consumer advocate.

3. Connecticut

The biggest winner when Republican Senate nominee Todd Akin self-destructed in Missouri was Linda McMahon. Why would a Connecticut candidate benefit from a Missouri meltdown? National Republicans and conservative Super PACs shifted funding away from a perceived lost cause and into a race where the GOP nominee, a former wrestling executive, as everyone knows, is hanging close to the favored Democrat. McMahon surged into contention, but the most recent poll showed Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy in front. Connecticut hasn’t elected a Republican senator since Lowell Weicker. (Think Watergate.) But out of nowhere, this has become one of the hottest Senate contests in the country.

4. Virginia

This had been the closest race of the year — until last week. Romney’s rapid decline in Virginia seems to have (at least temporarily) hurt Republican George Allen’s Senate prospects. Democrat Tim Kaine has leads in the five most recent polls after four of the previous eight included four ties and two narrow leads for each nominee. Both of these former governors (Allen also has served as a senator and House member) were popular when the race began, although repeated waves of negative commercials have made Virginia voters sick of both of them. Allen continues to run ahead of Romney, but he needs a little help from the top of the ticket.

5. Indiana

Republican Sen. Dick Lugar was considered a shoo-in for re-election over any Democrat. But Lugar was defeated in the Republican primary (in a landslide) by Richard Mourdock, whose take-no-prisoners conservatism appealed to primary voters but has created anxiety in the political center where general elections are often won. Lugar, a revered politician across party lines, is refusing to campaign for Mourdock. Democrat Joe Donnelly, a relatively moderate congressman, is positioning himself as the bipartisan problem-solver in the race. His role model: Dick Lugar. Recent polls show a competitive race.

6. Nevada

Democrats were joyously awaiting a race against disgraced Republican Sen. John Ensign, he of the messy affair with his chief of staff’s wife. But Ensign saved the GOP a lot of heartburn by resigning the seat and allowing the governor to appoint congressman Dean Heller to the job. Democratic nominee Shelly Berkley, a Las Vegas congresswoman, is a fixture in the nation’s gambling capital but is less known in northern Nevada. And she is hindered by a House ethics committee investigation probe into “alleged communications and activities with or on behalf of entities in which Rep. Berkley’s husband had a financial interest,” according to the panel. This race has gotten heated: Heller last week called Berkley “the most unethical, corrupt person I’ve ever met in my life.” He also distanced himself from Romney’s “47 percent” remarks, noting his own hard-scrabble upbringing.

7. Ohio

After sweeping statewide elections in 2010, Republicans were confident that they could pick off the populist liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown in this year’s Ohio Senate race. But Brown, a scrappy first-termer, has taken the offensive. Despite millions of dollars in attack ads from national Republican Super PACs, Brown has remained in the lead. Mitt Romney’s Ohio woes make an uphill slog even tougher for 34-year-old Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel, whose campaign assertions have been repeatedly declared false by independent fact-checking organizations. (Indeed, he won PolitiFact’s award in 2010 for “Lie of the Year.”)

8. Wisconsin

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson vanquished strong Tea Party opponents in the Republican primary and took an early lead against Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin in the race to succeed retiring Democrat Herb Kohl. But the energetic (and liberal) Baldwin, who is hoping to become the first openly gay member of the U.S. Senate surged after an ad blitz. The 70-year-old Thompson, a Wisconsin legend who served a stint as George W. Bush’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, is hoping to benefit from Republican enthusiasm over fellow Wisconsinite Paul Ryan’s role on the GOP ticket.

9. Florida

Republicans are convinced that veteran Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson should be vulnerable in an anti-Washington, anti-incumbent climate. But the GOP nominee, congressman Connie Mack, has been hampered by campaign snafus and attacks alleging a hard-partying lifestyle. Mack is a celebrity of sorts: the son of a senator, great-grandson of a baseball legend and husband of the widow of entertainer-congressman Sonny Bono. Nelson is not one of the Senate’s most stirring orators, but he’s steady, he’s well-known and he hasn’t made any major mistakes this year.

10. North Dakota

At the beginning of 2012, the Pundit Elite had written off Nebraska and North Dakota for Democrats as a result of Democratic retirements in very Republican states. Nebraska looks like a GOP pick-up, but North Dakota is surprisingly competitive. The race pits Republican congressman Rick Berg, a conservative with Tea Party bona fides, against Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, a former attorney general who can cowgirl with the best of them. Heitkamp hasn’t been afraid to disagree with President Obama (on energy, in particular). Berg is trying to portray her as another vote for Obama’s agenda, which isn’t all too popular in the Dakotas. Berg has a slight edge entering the final six weeks, but he’s not safe just yet. This seat is a must-win if the GOP hopes to win control of the Senate.

Other races to watch: Arizona (open seat, Republican), Hawaii (open seat, Democratic), New Mexico (open seat, Democratic), Michigan (Debbie Stabenow, Democratic incumbent), Missouri (Claire McCaskill, Democratic incumbent).

Richard Dunham