RICK DUNHAM'S ELECTORAL MAP: SEPTEMBER 24
Welcome to our weekly Electoral College update. Every Monday morning between now and Election Day, Nov. 6, we will analyze the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states and let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.
The big picture:
National polling remains pretty close: President Obama maintains a small lead among likely voters across the nation. But the Democratic incumbent has widened his edge in most of the dozen swing states that will determine the election. Two reasons: Obama and his Super PAC allies have outspent the GOP on TV ads in swing states over the past month. Also, Romney was hurt by controversial comments about the “47 percent” of Americans dependent upon government and his re-definition of the middle class as those earning between $200,000 and $250,000. Obama led by an average of 1.1 percentage points in the polls conducted between Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan and the end of the Republican National Convention. The average over the past week stood at 3.9 percentage points, up from 3.1 a week ago.
Advantage: Obama.
Trend: Obama
The battlegrounds:
Colorado
Lead: Obama +2.1
Compared to national average: Romney +1.8
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
Florida
Lead: Obama +1.7
Compared to national average: Romney +2.2
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
Iowa
Lead: Obama +2.3
Compared to national average: Romney +1.6
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
Michigan
Lead: Obama +8.0
Compared to national average: Obama +4.1
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama
Nevada
Lead: Obama +2.5
Compared to national average: Romney +1.4
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
New Hampshire
Lead: Obama +2.3
Compared to national average: Romney +1.6
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
New Mexico
Lead: Obama +10.0
Compared to national average: Obama +6.1
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored
North Carolina
Lead: Romney +1.8
Compared to national average: Romney +5.1
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney
Ohio
Lead: Obama +4.1
Compared to national average: Obama +0.2
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama
Pennsylvania
Lead: Obama +9.5
Compared to national average: Obama +5.6
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored
Virginia
Lead: Obama +4.5
Compared to national average: Obama +0.6
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up
Wisconsin
Lead: Obama +7.0
Compared to national average: Obama +3.1
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama
Spotlight state: Ohio
Numbers based on RealClearPolitics poll data compiled by Max Kranl of the Hearst Newspapers Washington bureau and analyzed by Rick Dunham. Our thanks to RealClearPolitics for the timelines.