Electoral College Update: Bad news for Romney on eve of debates

RICK DUNHAM'S ELECTORAL MAP -- October 1, 2012

Welcome to our weekly Electoral College update. Every Monday morning between now and Election Day, Nov. 6, we will analyze the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states and let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.

The big picture:

On the eve of the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, polls show the Democratic incumbent leading in every battleground state. For the first time since we began our Electoral College Update, Obama has a clear lead in states (and the District of Columbia) with more than 270 electoral votes. He now stands at 271, one more than the magic number needed to claim victory.

There’s been a lot of kvetching among Republican loyalists over polling methodology. My thought: Rick’s Rule #1 of polling is that any individual poll can be wrong but they can’t all be wrong. Even Fox News’ polling shows Obama ahead.

The best way for Romney to redraw the map in a hurry is to perform well in the three upcoming debates. The national average over the past week stood at an Obama lead of 4.0 percentage points, almost unchanged from 3.9 a week ago and 3.1 a week two weeks ago.

Advantage: Obama.
Trend: None

The battlegrounds: Colorado
Lead: Obama +2.9
Compared to national average: Romney +1.1
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Florida
Lead: Obama +3.2
Compared to national average: Romney +0.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Iowa
Lead: Obama +3.7
Compared to national average: Romney +0.3
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Michigan
Lead: Obama +8.8
Compared to national average: Obama +4.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored

Nevada
Lead: Obama +3.8
Compared to national average: Romney +0.2
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

New Hampshire
Lead: Obama +3.0
Compared to national average: Romney +1.0
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

New Mexico
Lead: Obama +10.0
Compared to national average: Obama +6.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored

North Carolina
Lead: Obama +1.1
Compared to national average: Romney +2.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Ohio
Lead: Obama +5.9
Compared to national average: Obama +1.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Pennsylvania
Lead: Obama +8.0
Compared to national average: Obama +4.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored

Virginia
Lead: Obama +3.7
Compared to national average: Romney +0.3
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Wisconsin
Lead: Obama +7.8
Compared to national average: Obama +3.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Spotlight state: Iowa

Numbers based on RealClearPolitics poll data compiled by Max Kranl of the Hearst Newspapers Washington bureau and analyzed by Rick Dunham. Our thanks to RealClearPolitics for the timelines.

Richard Dunham