CT Politics

Connecticut Politics

Game on! Here comes Romney’s post-debate poll bump

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We’re starting to see the first major polls roll in post-Mitt Romney’s well-received debate performance last week and there’s a lot of smiles in Mittland after Monday’s poll from the well-respected Pew Research Center showing Mitt up 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

The Pewsters say two-thirds of their respondents thought Mitt did a better job in Wednesday’s debate. And that, in turn, has calcified his support a bit:

More generally, the poll finds Romney’s supporters far more engaged in the campaign than they were in September. Fully 82% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, up from 73% in September. The
new survey finds that Romney supporters hold a 15-point advantage over Obama backers on this key engagement measure.

As we said in our story a while back, there are a lot of reasons for wide swings in polls — especially at this time of year. Why

Tweeted uberpollster Nate Silver Monday:”So the Pew poll really is a huge data point for Romney. But his polling today was pretty mediocre without it.”

Silver still believes that Obama has a 75.6 percent chance of winning. Later he wrote on his 538.com blog Monday:

Polling data is often very noisy, and not all polls use equally rigorous methodology. But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points. Such an outcome would be in line with what history and the fundamentals of the economy would lead you to expect.

Also keep an eye on RealClearPolitics.com, which averages the major polls. The two are virtually tied in Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Florida. Obama is up — but close to the margin of error — in Iowa, Nevada and Ohio.

Which makes Thursday’s VP debate MUST-SEE TV. Really. More on that later.

Joe Garofoli

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