What Obama and Romney must accomplish at next debate

The pressure is on the president.

After wilting under the heat of Mitt Romney’s attacks in the first presidential debate in Denver, Barack Obama is hoping to rebound with an improved performance at their second encounter on Tuesday.

Obama’s year-long lead over Romney in national presidential polls disappeared in the week after the first debate. Democrats were heartened by Vice President Joe Biden’s aggressive performance against Republican Paul Ryan last Thursday, but post-debate polls found that few minds were changed by the Centre College session.

“For Romney and Obama it’s a night of role reversal,” said Lawrence Levy, a political analyst at Hofstra University, which is hosting the debate. “Two weeks ago it was Romney who had to slow his opponent’s momentum, lift the spirits of his base supporters and look presidential to the few moderate swing voters. On Tuesday night it’s Obama who has to perform those tricks while Romney just needs to keep his mo’ going.”

So how do they achieve those objectives? Here are five things each candidate is hoping to accomplish at Hofstra:

OBAMA

1. Bounce back.

Democrats are dreaming of a 1984 replay, when President Ronald Reagan responded to a poor showing in the first presidential debate with a performance for the ages in debate number two. “The second debate was crucial for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and and this could have the same impact,” said Dotty Lynch, a professor of public communication at American University. “If Obama bounces back he might be able to wipe out the gains Romney made.” At a minimum, Obama needs to hold his own against Romney, press the attack and effectively respond to the Republican’s cogent critiques.

2. Show a little energy.

Look alive, Mister President! Obama’s body language was awful during the first debate. He often looked down, he rarely gazed at his opponent and he only occasionally talked directly to the television audience. Obama needs to convince the public that he really wants a second term. “President Obama simply cannot afford a repeat of his performance the first time out,” said David Lanoue, a political scientist at Columbus State University in Georgia. “He needs to show more energy and passion.” But not too much. It would be a mistake to overcompensate for a dull debate in Denver with an overcaffeinated outing in New York.

3. Tell us about the future.

Romney has his list of five economic priorities for the next four years. Obama must have something more specific than raising taxes on the richest Americans. Yes, we know you inherited an economic mess. But what will you do for us if we stick with you? “Obama must outline a vision for what his next four years will look like,” said University of Texas political scientist Sean Theriault. “While he may have attempted this at his convention speech, but it wasn’t a vision that got many non-Democrats excited. He must give the independent voter a reason to opt for him instead of the newly energized Romney campaign.”

4. Lay out a contrasting vision.

It’s not enough to say “middle class” 19 times, as Obama did in Denver. “In a town hall meeting he has to show he understands the concerns of average people and is not just there to score debating points,” said Lynch. “He also needs to convince people — in the hall but mostly in the TV audience — that he has better solutions for jobs and the economy than does Romney.”

5. Control the issues agenda.

In Denver Romney set the tone and controlled the agenda. Obama must make his points at Hofstra, whatever the question. “President Obama must find a way to interject favorable issues like the (Romney) ’47 percent’ comments, the auto bailout and tax returns into his answers at the debate on Tuesday night,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan. “These were noticeably absent during the Denver debate, which was largely fought on the turf of Gov. Romney.” One must-discuss subject for Obama: Issues of importance to working women such as pay equity, college financial aid and Republican-backed restrictions on contraception.

ROMNEY

1. Regain the momentum.

The Republican nominee erased Obama’s national lead following the Denver debate. Democrats stabilized after the vice presidential debate. Romney’s goal is another victory that would convince enough undecided voters to give him a narrow majority on Nov. 6. A draw is OK. A clear defeat could reverse the gains of recent weeks. “Given his impressive performance, Gov. Romney will have higher expectations this time and must deliver,” said Kall. “Gov. Romney needs another strong performance to convince swing state undecided voters to at least give him one final consideration.”

2. Focus on economic solutions to average people’s problems.

In recent weeks, Romney has been trying to humanize himself by telling stories of his interactions with average Americans, particularly those facing economic or medical crises. The town-hall format gives him an opportunity to relate to these “real people” in front of an audience in the tens of millions. “Romney’s number one goal should be to show he connects with average people,” said Lynch. “He made up some ground on that in the first debate but there are still doubts about how much he understands what average people are going through and has ways to make their lives better.” To do that, said Texas GOP state Rep. Stefani Carter, “He must continue to make the case that he will turn around the economy.”

3. How will it play in Ohio?

It doesn’t matter how it plays in Peoria, Ill. — the mythical Middle American town — this year. It matters how it plays in Parma, the blue-collar Cleveland suburb that is a key to victory in a key swing state. Romney needs to convince Joe the Welder in Parma that the economic future will be brighter in a Republican Washington. A sign of Romney’s blue-collar blues: The NewsmaxZogby poll released Monday found that NASCAR fans continue to favor Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent.

4. Appeal to independent voters.

Romney took a lead among independent voters after the first debate. That’s the good news for the Republican nominee. The bad news is that the higher level of support comes with higher expectations. A Pew Research Center poll released Monday found that independents expect Romney to win Tuesday’s debate, 42 percent to 31 percent. That’s a reversal from the first debate, where independents thought Obama would win by a 44 percent to 28 percent margin. Romney “must convince them that competence is more important than likability,” said Theriault. “John Kerry won the competence debate (in 2004), but lost the war due to his lack of likability. He doesn’t want to be another Massachusetts candidate that couldn’t relate to the average American.”

5. Don’t lose your cool.

No $10,000 bets — even if Obama gets under his skin like Rick Perry did in that infamous Republican primary debate moment. Team Obama will try to rattle Romney and force him into an error. The Republican nominee must remain disciplined and unflappable.