CT-SEN snapshot: a 2-point spread

Calling all pollsters.

Connecticut has become fertile ground for public opinion research outfits, courtesy of Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon.

The Siena College Research Institute near Albany, N.Y., got in on the action Wednesday, installing Murphy as a 2-point favorite, if there is a such a thing, in the race.

The Real Clear Politics average for the contest has Murphy up by 2 percent on McMahon, a 1.4-point swing in McMahon’s favor in the past week.

Murphy is at 48 percent to McMahon’s 46 percent, according to the poll averaging site.

With most polls falling within the margin of error of the toss-up race, the wonkish people who conduct them are now looking toward other indicators to predict the outcome of the contest.

Qunnipiac University, which had McMahon nursing a 1-point lead at the beginning of the month, enlisted the help of Langer Research Associates of New York City to do a statistical analysis on the race.

“The survey overall found several deficits for Murphy, in areas including voter enthusiasm, personal favorability and perceived qualifications for the job,” Q-poll director Douglas Schwartz wrote on his blog Tuesday. “But regression modeling indicates that he remains competitive chiefly on the basis of views of which candidate “better understands the economic problems people in Connecticut are having.” This perception is the single strongest predictor of vote choice by a wide margin; the fact that Murphy runs evenly with McMahon on empathy (45-46 percent, Murphy-McMahon) keeps him in the race.”

You can read the rest of the analysis here.

Here’s how the two sides are spinning the latest batch of numbers —

For the Murphy campaign, spokesman Eli Zupnick:

“It shows that the race is close, but voters continue to move toward Chris. I think the more they hear about issues like McMahon’s comments on emergency contraception for rape victims the more they’ll remember why they rejected her campaign of lies and personal attacks just two years ago.”

For the McMahon campaign, spokesman Todd Abrajano:

“Today’s Siena Poll shows that with under three weeks until Election Day, Connecticut voters are still refusing to embrace Congressman Chris Murphy’s U.S. Senate candidacy because they are unimpressed by his failed political career and the fact that he doesn’t show up for work 75 percent of the time for his current $170,000-a-year, taxpayer-funded job. Congressman Murphy is focusing his campaign on falsely attacking his opponent because he is unable to lay out a record of accomplishment of his own. In contrast, Linda McMahon has garnered support in this race because she is the only candidate in the race with a six-point jobs plan that starts with a middle-class tax cut and will save the average Connecticut family $500 a month next year.”

Neil Vigdor