5 things Obama, Romney must accomplish in foreign policy debate

For most of the 2012 election season, President Obama’s foreign policy record was a major advantage over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. A month ago, Obama maintained a 53 percent to 38 percent edge over his opponent on international issues in a Pew Research Center survey.

That was before the Benghazi attack that killed the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans. And before the Denver presidential debate that scrambled the race for the White House.

Now, voters give Obama a narrow 47 percent to 43 percent lead on foreign policy.

The Democratic incumbent is hoping that he can use the third debate to regain a clear advantage on global issues. And the former Massachusetts governor is hoping to use it to close the deal with any voters who haven’t yet made up their minds.

Here are five things that Obama and Romney must accomplish in tonight’s debate at Lynn College in Boca Raton, Fla.:

OBAMA

1. Accentuate the positive

Osama bin Laden is dead. The Iraq war is over. The Afghanistan war is winding down. Promises made. Promises kept. Obama’s goal: Make sure Americans leave the debate viewing him as a strong, can-do commander-in-chief, not, as the Republican portray him, a bumbler (Libya) who “leads from behind” (Arab Spring) and is unwilling to make tough decisions (Syria, Iran).

2. Portray Romney as a foreign-policy flip-flopper

Obama notes that Romney opposed the administration’s Afghanistan policy before he supported it. The president says Romney attacks China for taking U.S. jobs but was a pioneer in outsourcing. On Friday, Obama coined the term “Romnesia.” But the incumbent must be careful to modulate his criticism. “Obama must attack Romney and somehow demonstrate his incompetence without being mean and driving up the president’s personal negatives, which have increased of late,” said Steven E. Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College and author of Transforming America: Barack Obama in the White House.

3. Have a plausible explanation for administration’s changing explanations of Benghazi consulate attack

Another day, another embarrassing revelation about the Obama administration’s response to the assassination of the U.S. ambassador to Libya. In last Tuesday’s debate, the president said he took responsibility for the situation. But many Americans still want to know why the administration issued so many conflicting statements for so long after the Benghazi attack. “President Obama must have a more consistent and logical timeline of events regarding what actually happened,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan. “The president was somewhat saved on the question of Libya by moderator Candy Crowley during the second debate, but (Monday’s moderator) Bob Schieffer is unlikely to throw any similar lifelines.”

4. Win the argument on Iran

The tough international sanctions on Iran have wreaked havoc on Tehran’s theocratic regime, sending its currency plummeting and deepening the country’s economic woes. Obama needs to convince Americans that sanctions can thwart the mullahs’ attempts to build a nuclear weapon. Joe Biden argued the case convincingly in the vice presidential debate. The president must be just as convincing that the U.S. stands beside Israel in its demand to end Tehran’s nuclear program, one way or another.

5. Avoid a catastrophic blunder

Remember President Gerald Ford declaring in 1976 that Eastern Europe was free from Soviet domination? Big, big mistake. An unforced error. It’s exactly the kind of viral video this incumbent president hopes to avoid Monday night. “The order of the day for each candidate will be to avoid any egregious errors and to stay on the offensive with the goal of energizing their respective supporters to turn out in mass to back them between now and election day,” said Mark P. Jones, chairman of the political science department at Rice University.

ROMNEY

1. Look like a plausible commander-in-chief

Romney has often invoked Ronald Reagan during the campaign, and Romney needs a Reagan moment. During the 1980 debates, Reagan, standing next to President Jimmy Carter, appeared tougher and more presidential than the incumbent whose presidency was badly damaged by the ongoing hostage crisis in Tehran. Romney wants to do the same thing. “Gov. Romney has a dearth of foreign policy experience and botched his high-profile trip overseas in the summer,” said Kall. “He must pass the commander-in-chief threshold test during the foreign policy debate.”

2. Come up with an effective attack on the administration’s Libya mistakes — finally

Romney has not been able to capitalize politically on the terror attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya because … he looks like he has been trying to capitalize politically. He was criticized first for responding before all the facts was known. Then he was accused of trying to score partisan points at a time of international crisis. A more effective approach might be to quote former Tennessee Sen. Howard Baker during the Watergate scandal: “What did the president know and when did he know it?”

3. Open up a gap between the president and Israel

Republicans have been struggling all year to reduce Obama’s share of the Jewish vote in hopes of tipping states such as Florida and Ohio into the GOP column. Romney accuses Obama of distancing himself from America’s most important Middle East ally and has pledged to take “the exact opposite approach.” Obama says he has done everything the Israeli government has asked him to do to ensure the Jewish nation’s security. Romney needs to say — specifically — what action he would take that Obama has not.

4. Explain how China and Russia are threats to America

Critics have accused Romney of being stuck in a Cold War mindset. They note his comment that Russia is America’s number one geopolitical threat. Romney has to explain why he views Russia and, more importantly, China as economic or military threats. By explaining his worldview, Romney can convince voters he understands the challenges of the 21st century world. Or is continuing to live in the mid-20th century.

5. Bring everything back to the economy

Romney has been effective in his attacks on President Obama’s economic record. Since the final debate is about foreign policy and not the economy, Romney needs to continue to remind viewers why many international challenges are tied to economic growth and jobs at home.