And the winner is … Live analysis of the foreign policy debate

With the two presidential candidates locked in a statistical tie two weeks before Election Day, their final debate could prove pivotal. As the foreign policy debate at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Fla., unfolds, Hearst Newspapers national political reporter Rick Dunham will offer analysis of the debate in real time.

You can also follow his latest tweets via @rickdunham.

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Here is our list of five things each candidate needs to accomplish at the Boca Raton debate.

OBAMA

1. Accentuate the positive

2. Portray Romney as a foreign-policy flip-flopper

3. Have a plausible explanation for administration’s changing explanations of Benghazi consulate attack

4. Win the argument on Iran

5. Avoid a catastrophic blunder

The official banner of the presidential debates. (AP photo)

ROMNEY

1. Look like a plausible commander-in-chief

2. Come up with an effective attack on the administration’s Libya mistakes — finally

3. Open up a gap between the president and Israel

4. Explain how China and Russia are threats to America

5. Bring everything back to the economy

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Here are some debate-day headlines:

>>> Republicans ramp up their social media presence before third presidential debate

>>> Polls show public support for Obama on Afghanistan and Israel, but concern about China, Iran, Arab Spring

>>> Electoral College Update: Obama’s Midwestern firewall keeps him in contention

>>> Pre-debate poll: Obama and Romney tied

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The few minutes before the debate are the most awkward. Ann Romney is trying to smile but looks stressed. Moderator Bob Schieffer warned the audience to be “quiet as mice.”

That’ll last until someone gets a text message that the Giants just scored again.

Debate commission co-chair Mike McCurry warned people NOT to cheer for a baseball team scoring in Game 7 of the National League playoffs.

Yeah, right.

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Mitt Romney telegraphs his strategy in response to the opening question. He will embrace popular elements of Obama’s record (killing Osama bin Laden) and will focus on unpopular elements (Libya consulate).

Obama’s response: “Gov. Romney, I’m glad you agree that we’ve been successful in going against al-Qaeda.”

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On second question, Romney makes clear that he’s ready to jettison George W. Bush. He indirectly attacks Bush 43 neo-con policies: “We don’t want another Iraq. We don’t want another Afghanistan.”

Obama’s not cutting him any slack. “Gov. Romney, I’m glad you recognize that al-Qaeda is a threat.”

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Obama first to embrace Israel, “a true friend and our greatest ally in the region.”

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A few good zingers for both candidates.

Obama says Romney has a foreign policy stuck in the ’80s, social policy stuck in the ’50s and economic policy stuck in the Roaring Twenties. (Honk if you’re for Herbert Hoover.)

On foreign policy, Obama says, “Every time you’ve offered an opinion, you’ve been wrong.”

Bam!

Responds Romney: “Attacking me is not an agenda.”

Wham!

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Body language alert: Obama is now staring at Romney when he’s on camera, unlike the passive gaze of the first debate. And Romney was scribbling notes (a la Obama, first debate) when the president launched into attacks on his foreign policy. He said he would respond specifically to the president’s charges, but he never got a chance because Obama interrupted him about two sentences in.

More body language: The Twitterverse is hot into mention of Romney sweating, a la Nixon. The pursed lips and scrunched-up eyes play into this imagery.

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Why is Obama constantly on the offense on Libya. Rather than explaining (or backpedaling on) the Benghazi violence, he does a left-right combination punch at Romney for — first — applauding the Republican for supporting U.S. military involvement in Libya and — later — opposing “mission creep” or “mission muddle” before Moammar Gadhafi was overthrown and killed. Gadhafi, says Obama, has more American blood on his hands than anyone other than Osama bin Laden.

Romney forced to look on with a neutral stare on his face.

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Another Obama kudogram to Israel in response to a question about Egypt. That puts him up 2-0 in the pro-Israel answer score.

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Two more Romney agreements with Obama. He says the president handled Egypt right. He says he would not have supported Hosni Mubarak remaining in power. The GOP nominee also agreed with Obama that U.S. troops are not needed in Syria.

Not sure where Romney would do things differently. Or what he would do differently. He needs to define the differences, as well as his vision for America in the world.

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Romney’s vision for America in the world?

Freedom. Human rights. Free enterprise. Elections.

Anyone disagree with any of that?

Then a quick pivot to the U.S. economy: “America must be strong. America must lead. In order t do that, we need to strengthen our economy at home.”

Good idea to talk domestic issues. Obama beat him to it by a couple of minutes, talking about not just nation-building overseas but building U.S. education system and U.S. energy production.

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Dick Cheney makes a cameo appearance in the debate. Obama reminds us of the former policy adventurism of the Bush-Cheney era.

Romney brushed it off — “I’ve got a policy for the future” — and then pivoted to talk about his five-point plan for America’s economic future. (See my colleague Joe Garofoli’s post on the Cheney mention and Romney pivot, just published on this site.)

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Joe Biden’s not there, but Barack Obama is smiling now. Romney can’t explain how he’ll spend $2 trillion more on military and end up with a balanced budget.

He says he’ll kill ObamaCare.

That dog ain’t gonna hunt. “The math doesn’t work,” Obama insists.

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Romney finally finds his footing on military spending. Notes that the Navy will be smaller “since 1917.” He says Air Force will be “older and smaller” than any time since 1947.

Obama slams back: “We also have fewer horses and bayonets. We have these things called aircraft carriers that planes land on.”

This is not a game of battleship, the prez avers.

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The two answers on Iran were interchangeable. Romney applauds sanctions, says they have worked. Team Obama must be happy about that.

The president quickly thanked Romney. “I’m glad that Gov. Romney agrees with the steps that we’re taking.”

If Romney doesn’t draw blood on Iran, Israel, Egypt, Syria or Libya, there’s not a whole lot of material for him to use to hammer Obama.

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Strange answer by Romney on Iran. He goes off on an Obama-is-apologizing-for-America riff.

“Nothing Gov. Romney just said is true,” Obama shot back. “This is probably the biggest whopper that’s been said in this campaign.”

The Romney campaign — to use the dumbest cliche of the election year — doubled down on the “apology” thing.

“WE CAN’T AFFORD FOUR MORE YEARS OF APOLOGIZING FOR AMERICA,” the Boston press shop just blasted out to all of us in the media. “Since Taking Office, President Obama Has Repeatedly Apologized For America’s Leadership Throughout The World.”

Guess Romney finally is back on script…

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The Obama mention of a discussion with the daughter of a 9/11 victim seems to be walking a fine line of politicizing 9/11. The president criticized Romney for saying four years ago that it is not worth moving heaven and earth to get one man. Citing the young girl who lost her father in the twin towers, he said, “It was worth moving heaven and earth to get him.”

But Bob Schieffer wouldn’t give Romney a chance to respond.

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BOB SCHIEFFER JUST DID IT. “OBAMA BIN LADEN.”

No reaction from the president. Or from Romney.

But the Twittersphere won’t miss it.

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Obama is pre-empting Romney on China, talking about how he’s been much tougher on China trade practices than the Bush administration, including a case for China dumping low-cost tires in the U.S. market. “Gov. Romney criticized me for being too tough in that case,” Obama noted.

Romney doesn’t try to attack Obama on China trade policy. Instead, he switches to talk of domestic economy and returns to campaign talking points — effective ones, to be sure, but not related to China.

Whoa! About midway into his answer, he says he would declare China a currency manipulator from Day One and turns to his get-tough rhetoric from the campaign trail. Quite a tonal shift in a few seconds.

Obama says currency exchange is at “most advantageous (to U.S. trade) since 1993.”

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Romney just committed one of the cardinal sins of public relations. He pulled an “I am not a crook.”

Defending his opposition to the auto bailouts of the Bush and Obama administrations, he criticized Bush for writing “the first checks” to Detroit but then denied he would “liquidate” the domestic auto industry.

“Liquidate? Of course not. Of course not. That’s the height of silliness.”

Big mistake. You’re never supposed to repeat a charge and then deny it, as when Richard Nixon declared he wasn’t a crook and Fawn Hall (remember her?) declared “I am not a bimbo.”

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“I love teachers,” said Romney. “I love teachers.”

“I think we all love teachers,” interjected moderator Schieffer.

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In closing, Obama goes back to his theme of the evening: Romney foreign policy is “wrong and reckless.” But he spends most of the final two minutes talking about the U.S. economy (“nation-building at home”).

“I will always listen to your voices,” he said. “I will fight for your families.”

Romney criticizes Obama on economy, saying he’s put U.S. on a “path to Greece.”

He then closes with a bipartisan note, reaching out to the few undecided voters left out there. He notes that he can “work across the aisle” with Democrats to turn around the economy.

“I’ll work with good Democrats, I’ll work with good Republicans to do that,” he concluded.