Archive for November 1st, 2012

SOTS Merrill debunks McMahon campaign claim over New Haven ballots. Here’s one of the 40 pages ordering ballots.

Thursday, November 1, 2012 by:Ken Dixon
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Secretary of the State Denise Merrill said this afternoon that New Haven sent in proof of its ballot purchases on October 23 and produced a 40-page report from that city with its recent turnout and the number of ballots it has ordered for each polling precinct for next week. The information flies in the face of Linda McMahon’s Republican Senate campaign report that it filed for an emergency order “requiring the New Haven city clerk and its registrars of voters to certify that it has ordered enough ballots for each precinct for the coming election; if they cannot certify there are enough ballots the campaign has asked that the court institute security and counting measures in the event that unscannable, photocopied ballots are used; and purge the voter file of individuals that are not eligible to vote in the city.”

New Haven, a heavily Democratic city, is likely to have huge support for US Rep. Chris Murphy in the U.S. Senate race, which culminates next Tuesday, Election Day. Corry Bliss, McMahon’s campaign manager, said McMahon doesn’t want a Bridgeport-2010 issue, in which insufficient ballots were ordered. State law was subsequently rewritten by the General Assembly requiring towns and cities to have enough ballots and to report such orders in a timely manner to the secretary of the state.

Down below is one of the 40 pages. Note the 2,800-ballot order toward the top of the page.

Mayor Bill Finch predicts big Election Day turnout in Bridgeport

Thursday, November 1, 2012 by:Ken Dixon
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Mayor Bill Finch, speaking to reporters outside Housatonic Community College this afternoon, following the appearance of Homeland Security Secy Janet Napolitano: “Oh, I think we’ll have a big turnout in Bridgeport. I think this shows the importance of government to people in their lives. I think they’ll show up in record numbers.”

Analysis: Polls show that 14 Senate seats are still up for grabs

Thursday, November 1, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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With five days to go before Election Day, there are more close Senate contests than in any election in our three decades of covering congressional elections.

Fourteen of this year’s 33 Senate contests are within single digits, and a surge toward one party could tip the balance of power in the Senate.

If current polling holds up on Nov. 6, the Republicans would net one Senate seat, leaving Democrats with a slim majority (thanks to Independents who caucus with the Democrats).

Best-case scenario for Republicans: A gain of nine. And a Senate majority.

Best-case scenario for Democrats: A gain of two. And a bit of a cushion.

Here are the single-digit Senate contests, based on our analysis of RealClearPolitics data. Thanks to Max Kranl of the Hearst Washington bureau for collecting the numbers for us to slice and dice:

1. Montana: Denny Rehberg (R) vs. Sen. Jon Tester (D)

Average: Rehberg +0.3
Range: Rehberg +3 to Tester +2
Most recent polls: Rehberg leads one poll, Tester leads one, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Can Democrats turn out their voters in a red state to save their most endangered incumbent?

2. Arizona: Jeff Flake (R) vs. Richard Carmona (D)

Average: Flake +0.7
Range: Flake +6 to Carmona +4
Most recent polls: Flake leads in two polls, Carmona also leads in two
Polling reliability: Low
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Wild fluctuations in polls in an unexpectedly competitive race for a GOP-held seat.

3. Virginia: Tim Kaine (D) vs. George Allen (R)

Average: Kaine +1.0
Range: Kaine +7 to Allen +5
Most recent polls: Kaine leads in three of five polls, Allen in two
Polling reliability: Moderate
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Kaine running just ahead of President Obama in dead-heat state.

4. Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Tommy Thompson (R)

Average: Baldwin +1.3
Range: Baldwin +4 to Thompson +1
Most recent polls: Baldwin leads in two polls, Thompson leads in one
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Thompson running just ahead of Romney-Ryan ticket in a key presidential battleground.

5. Indiana: Richard Mourdock (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)

Average: Mourdock +1.3
Range: Mourdock +5 to Donnelly +2
Most recent polls: Mourdock leads in two polls, Donnelly in one, one a tie
Polling reliability: Moderate
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Internal polling showing a Mourdock dive after “rape” comment created a firestorm. But no recent public polling.

6. Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) vs. Bob Kerrey (D)
Average: Fischer +3
Range: None
Most recent polls: Fischer leads in the only public poll since September
Polling reliability: Low
Rick Dunham’s analysis: It’s a very Republican state, and there’s only one public poll. It’s not inconceivable that former Sen. Kerrey could pull an upset, but it’s highly unlikely with Romney running way ahead.

7. Nevada: Sen. Dean Heller (R) vs. Shelley Berkley (D)

Average: Heller +3.5
Range: Heller +6 to tie
Most recent polls: Heller leading in three of four polls, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Ethics issues have hurt Berkley in a state where Obama is slightly ahead.

8. Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R)

Average: Murphy +4.0
Range: Murphy +6 to tie
Most recent polls: Murphy leading in three of four polls, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: The polling trendline is with Murphy.

9. Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. Sen. Scott Brown (R)

Average: Warren +4.5
Range: Warren +7 to tie
Most recent polls: Warren leading in three of four polls, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Barring a late shift, the Democratic challenger seems poised for a win.

10. Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)

Average: McCaskill +5.0
Range: McCaskill +8 to McCaskill +2
Most recent polls: McCaskill leads in all four polls
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: McCaskill hasn’t been able to close the deal against a weak opponent.

11. Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)

Average: Brown +5.5
Range: Brown +11 to Brown +1
Most recent polls: Brown leads in all six polls
Polling reliability: Moderate
Rick Dunham’s analysis: The margin has varied widely, but Brown is ahead in every poll.

12. North Dakota: Rick Berg (R) vs. Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Average: Berg +5.7
Range: Berg +10 to +2
Most recent polls: Berg leading in all three polls
Polling reliability: Low
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Romney romp may rescue Berg from strong foe.

13. Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey (D) vs. Tom Smith (R)

Average: Casey +6.2
Range: Casey +9 to Casey +1
Most recent polls: Casey leads in all four polls
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Self-funding Republican has made this a real contest against a popular incumbent.

14. Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) vs. Connie Mack (R)

Average: Nelson +6.7
Range: Nelson +13 to Nelson +3
Most recent polls: Nelson leads in all six polls
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Mack needs a major Romney surge to pull even with the Democratic incumbent.

Election fraud hotline set up

Thursday, November 1, 2012 by:Tom Baden
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Voters who see or experience what they believe are election irregularities will have a hotline to call on Election Day.

Anyone with knowledge of election fraud or voting rights abuses can call 1-866-733-2463 (1-866-SEEC-INFO) to report suspected violations. The number is toll-free statewide.  You can also call the State Election Enforcement Commission at 860-256-2940 if you have any questions or complaints or need the assistance of federal or state investigators.

A squadon of government agencies — the U.S. Attorney’s Office; FBI; SEEC; and the Secretary of the State’s Office among them — announced the creation of the hotline Thursday.

You can also send an email to elections@ct.gov to get in touch with the election enforcement commission and the Secretary of the State’s Office on Election Day.

Another day, another $1.25 million in “independent” expenditures floods Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race

Thursday, November 1, 2012 by:Ken Dixon
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Yesterday the total spent by independent groups, supposely not affiliated with Connecticut’s US Senate candidates, was $8.5 million, according to the Federal Election Commission. Today that total is $9,782,014.

But the day is young.

The big cash was reported overnight from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, with a $517,951 media buy opposing Republican Linda McMahon; more than $450,000 from the Majority PAC of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, opposing McMahon; and $205,000 in TV ad buys for the “Don’t be fooled” ad opposing McMahon, paid for by the labor-backed Patriot Majority PAC. The largely self-funded millionaire McMahon, who’s outspending US Rep. Chris Murphy by at least 4-1 overall, is behind in independent expenditures about 8-to-1. Today’s filing in her favor includes about $57,000 in telemarketing support from the FreedomWorks for America conservative super PAC; and another $5,600 from the National Right to Life PAC, opposing Murphy.